NFL Playoffs: Picking Winner of Each Game and One Player Who Could Change That

Now that Tim Tebow's adoring fans have finally cleared out of the Denver Broncos' stadium, it's time to make some picks for the divisional round of the 2012 NFL playoffs.

Surprisingly, there are a number of big favorites for this weekend. Three of the four home teams are currently favored by nine or more, with the lone exception being the San Francisco 49ers (who many people think are no match for the red-hot New Orleans Saints).

However, some teams are always going to surprise people (like the Houston Texans breaking their three-game losing streak last weekend), and thus there are always upsets to pick if you can spot them.

Still, realizing the difficulty of picking games in the NFL, I've included one player in each matchup who has the potential to change the game and make my predictions look foolish. These players aren't guys like Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees whose solid play is expected. They're X-factors, guys who could be completely ineffectual or make a few huge plays and win the game for their respective teams.

Without further ado, here are the picks for this weekend's four NFL second-round playoff games, along with the one player in each game who could make my pick wrong.

New Orleans Saints vs. San Francisco 49ers

The Pick: San Francisco 49ers

I'm sure most of you are scoffing. Everyone assumes the NFC will come down to either the Green Bay Packers or the New Orleans Saints, especially with the Saints riding a nine-game winning streak in which they've beaten six teams with a winning record.

However, the 49ers are actually the most complete team in the NFC playoff field. The 49ers are No. 4 in total defense and No. 2 in scoring defense, while no other NFC playoff teams rank in the top 10 in either category.

Alex Smith is playing much better this season, making good decisions and limiting mistakes (he's only thrown five interceptions all year) while allowing Frank Gore to carry the load. The 49ers don't have the offense that the Saints have, but their defense will frustrate the Saints and make enough big plays to pull out the win.

Saints Player Who Could Change That: Darren Sproles

Yes, Drew Brees is one of the best players in the NFL. He is going to be productive in this game as he always is. You can't stop him, you can only contain him. And that is done by limiting the playmakers around him.

The San Francisco 49ers are No. 1 in the NFL in rushing defense, only allowing 77.3 yards on the ground per game. They have shut down every running back they've faced all year. The 49ers only allowed three rushing touchdowns all season, and one of them was to quarterback Kellen Clemens.

However, the New Orleans Saints don't have the typical NFL running back in Darren Sproles. Sproles had more receiving yards (710) and touchdowns (seven) than he had on the ground this year (603 yards and two touchdowns). He is a dynamic player coming out of the backfield and on kickoff and punt returns. He can make big plays in many different ways, and the 49ers must keep him in check at all times.

Denver Broncos vs. New England Patriots

The Pick: New England Patriots

The New England Patriots have not won a playoff game since Eli Manning and the New York Giants ruined their perfect season in Super Bowl XLII in 2008. But that will change next week against the Denver Broncos.

The Broncos shockingly rebounded from a three-game losing streak last Sunday against the Pittsburgh Steelers. However, Ben Roethlisberger was suffering from an ankle injury, and Tim Tebow played by far his best game of the season.

I don't foresee the Broncos playing that well again. The New England Patriots have holes on defense and a less-than-stellar running game, but they have Tom Brady and they've won eight in a row. This game will be closer than last time, but the Patriots will still prevail.

Broncos Player Who Could Change That: Tim Tebow

You don't really want your quarterback to be a wild card, but that's the situation the Denver Broncos are in. Tim Tebow has had flashes of brilliance this year amidst long periods of being ineffectual as a passer and runner.

After closing the regular season with three consecutive terrible games in which he fumbled and completed only 11 passes against the New England Patriots, threw three interceptions against the Buffalo Bills, and was only 6-of-22 against the Kansas City Chiefs, Tebow was solid against the Pittsburgh Steelers.

The former Florida Gator threw for 316 yards, two touchdowns, and no interceptions against the vaunted Steelers defense. He will have to make some big plays and avoid the mistakes that plagued the latter part of his season if the Broncos have any chance of taking down Tom Brady.

Houston Texans vs. Baltimore Ravens

The Pick: Baltimore Ravens

I don't know which winning team was more surprising in the Wild Card Round of the 2012 NFL playoffs, the Denver Broncos or the other team that came in riding a three-game losing streak, the Houston Texans.

The Texans may have beaten the Cincinnati Bengals at home, but they face a much harder test when they travel to face to face the Baltimore Ravens next Sunday. The 13-3 Ravens have only lost one game since early November and haven't lost in M&T Bank Stadium all season.

With Matt Schaub out and (much less importantly) Matt Leinart sidelined as well, rookie T.J. Yates is taking the snaps for the Texans. Yates was passable in the Bengals game, but he threw an interception and had a second one dropped by Chris Crocker.

The Texans do have Arian Foster and Andre Johnson, but the Ravens have Ray Rice, Anquan Boldin, Torrey Smith and a much better quarterback in Joe Flacco. That and home-field advantage is enough to make them a safe bet in Baltimore.

Texans Player Who Can Change That: J.J. Watt and the Houston Defense

With Matt Schaub out and T.J. Yates starting at quarterback, the Houston Texans are limited on offense. However, they still have one of the best defenses in the NFL. They ranked No. 4 in rushing defense and No. 3 in passing defense this season.

The Texans defense was really what won the game for Gary Kubiak's crew last Saturday against the Cincinnati Bengals. They limited Bernard Scott and Cedric Benson to a combined 25 yards on 13 carries. They also harassed Andy Dalton all game long, sacking him four times and forcing him to throw three interceptions.

The Texans offense is going to have its struggles against Ed Reed, Ray Lewis and the vaunted Baltimore Ravens' defense. If Houston is going to win the game, its defense will have to be even more effective against the Ravens' offense. The Texans can do this if they get constant pressure on Joe Flacco and force him to make mistakes.

New York Giants vs. Green Bay Packers

The Pick: New York Giants

Most people probably think I'm crazy for picking against the New Orleans Saints and the Green Bay Packers. However, even with the uber-talented Aaron Rodgers, the Giants are a better football team overall than the Packers. They only lost to the Packers by a last-second field goal when the teams faced off a month ago.

Green Bay has a very talented receiving corps with Greg Jennings, Jordy Nelson, James Jone and Donald Driver. But New York can match it with Victor Cruz, Hakeem Nicks, and Mario Manningham. And the Giants' tandem of Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw is considerably better than the Packers backfield with Ryan Grant and James Starks (if he even plays).

Moreover, the Giants have a better defense (arguably everyone does, since the Packers rank last in the NFL in total defense in terms of yards allowed). The G-Men have suffered from injuries all season long, but they are finally mostly healthy, and this showed in their last game when they shutout the Atlanta Falcons offense. With Osi Umenyiora, Justin Tuck and Jason Pierre-Paul, the Giants will keep Rodgers from getting comfortable in the pocket.

Rodgers is the reason most people expect Green Bay to repeat, but Manning is a Pro Bowler and a Super Bowl-winning quarterback as well. He has been playing very well of late, and he will match Rodgers enough that the Giants other positional advantages will carry them to victory.

Packers Player Who Could Change That: Charles Woodson

Aaron Rodgers, Greg Jennings and Jordy Nelson are great, and they will get their yards and points. However, if the Green Bay Packers are going to win, they will need someone on their defense to step up.

The Packers have one of the worst defenses in the NFL statistically (they rank No. 32 in total defense). But they do have a number of elite players (namely Clay Matthews) on that side of the ball who make big plays and force turnovers.

The Packers intercepted more passes (31) than any team in the NFL this season. A big part of that was future Hall of Fame cornerback Charles Woodson, who had seven picks this season.

Eli Manning is great but he's mistake prone, as evidenced by his 25-interception season in 2010. Consequently, the New York Giants seem to live and die by his ball security. He threw 12 of his 16 interceptions in their seven losses this season, and 18 of his 29 touchdowns in their nine wins.

If Woodson can shut down Victor Cruz and Hakeem Nicks and perhaps come up with a big takeaway, he can change the course of this game.