2012 Offseason Predictions for the Cleveland Browns

It’s the postseason again, and for Browns’ fans that means one thing: our Super Bowl, the NFL draft.

It’s no surprise that after another losing season, the Browns are left with more questions than answers. But, as usual, some of the speculation about where the Browns will go from here already seems to be coming from fantasy-land.

As always, this early speculation happily neglects the scheme this team is running, or the availability of a prospect, or you know, what Holmgren and Heckert have been saying and doing since day one.

So in an attempt to combat the always-plaguing over-enthusiasm of fans, and perhaps temper those preseason expectations that always seem to lead to late-season depression, here are some predictions for the 2012 offseason.

The Browns Will Be Active in Free Agency

Yes, Browns fans will finally get what they are clamoring for: a team willing to use free agency to supplement their draft. But in the end, the Browns may leave many still scratching their heads.

The big name-dropping has already begun: Vincent Jackson, DeSean Jackson*, Matt Forte, etc.

But if two years of Heckert’s philosophy have not made it clear, these are not the guys you should expect to see. This team is building for the long term (thank god), which means they are not going to bring in some aging veteran who has already given his best years elsewhere, nor some marquee name who will tie up valuable cap space.

So, for the most part, you can kiss your Reggie Waynes goodbye.

Expect Heckert to target two or three potential starters just finishing up their rookie contracts: guys who have not yet reached their full potential, will not cost the Browns more than they are worth, and who will still be able to grow with this team.

*My one caveat is Heckert has shown the ability to break his tendencies if the team truly needs it (i.e. Scott Fujita, Tony Pashos), and without a doubt receiver is a position that needs it. DeSean Jackson may cost more than his actual value, but his youth, familiarity with Heckert, and elite speed may make him a real consideration for Heckert.

The Browns Will Not Trade Any of Their Early Picks

I actually expect the Browns to make an offer for Andrew Luck, just like they did for Bradford before. And just like two years ago, I expect the answer to be “No!”

As for trading up for Robert Griffin III, I think his NFL transition requires too much projection/speculation to take such a risk.

The good news is I do not see the Browns trading down, either. The time for just adding bodies is over.

When the Browns flipped the team last year, it set us back further than most realized. However, early results indicate that we had a fairly successful draft.

With the development of those young players and a year of experience under their belts, I think the team will only get better. Now we just need to add some playmakers, and you find those guys early.

With three of the top 37 picks, the Browns have a chance to add three day-one starters. And for fans who have been sick of watching the team trade away top ten picks for late-round linemen, I expect we will finally get to see some fireworks selections at skill positions.

The Browns Will Not Draft a Quarterback Early...

This is not a ringing endorsement of Colt McCoy, nor the time for that debate, but fans should still expect to see him under center in 2012 (at least to start the year).

Most fans have accepted that the Browns will not be able to get Luck, so speculation has turned to Heisman winner Robert Griffin III. While it is certainly possible that the Browns are interested, Griffin will be off the board by No. 4.

Washington, Miami, Kansas City, and maybe even Jacksonville are all desperate for a quarterback and in position to make a trade. St. Louis and Minnesota are both in position to take some extra picks while still being able to grab an elite prospect.

Heck, Minnesota might even jump for RG3 if they do not feel Christian Ponder is "the guy."

The Browns run into a similar dilemma regarding late-first-round prospect Ryan Tannehill. He is an extreme reach at No. 4, but with Matt Barkley and Landry Jones both returning to school, Tannehill will not be around when the Browns’ second pick rolls around.

Beyond that, the field gets pretty dim. Anyone else they pick would not be ready to start day one, so it is a lot to sacrifice to pick up a Nick Foles in Rounds 2-3, when that pick could garner a starter to fill one of the Browns' many other holes.

Rather, I see the Browns grabbing Brandon Weeden or Kirk Cousins in a later round with the hope that they can develop him for the future while he simultaneously pushes Colt McCoy to develop.

...Nor Will They Sign a Big-Name Free Agent Quarterback

The Browns might bring in a free agent quarterback, but it will not be who you think.

Despite the fact that Heckert said free agency is not the route they will obtain their quarterback; despite the fact that most people realize Matt Flynn’s 480-yard, 6-touchdown performance was an aberration; and despite the fact that Flynn is probably better than McCoy, there are two significant reasons the Browns will not sign him.

First, the Browns' talent scouts will look at the player himself. While Flynn has respectable numbers in his two starts, if you break down his tape you will see he often throws into double coverage, underthrows deep routes, and checks down just as much as McCoy.

The difference is he has had luck and penalties overturn gimme interceptions, his receivers fight for and come down with the ball, and his 5-yard checkdowns turn into 80-yard touchdowns from pro-caliber players. Flynn has talent, but he does not pass the eye-test for being “the guy.”

Second, price. Not only has Flynn played himself into a most lucrative free agent deal and will have his pick of teams looking for quarterback (by the way, doesn't throwing in the sunny skies of Miami sound a lot easier than the blustery winds of Lake Erie?), there is now talk that Green Bay will franchise Flynn to secure a first-round pick from quarterback-hungry teams.

I just do not see the Browns giving up a first-rounder and an inflated salary for a player who is really an unknown commodity.

The other free agents mentioned are game managers Jason Campbell and Kyle Orton, and past-their-prime guys like Donovan McNabb and Matt Hasselbeck.

None of these guys are the solution, and if all we are looking for is a stop-gap, even McCoy detractors have to admit he has shown enough to be that.

The Browns Second-Round Pick Will Be a Lineman

While the Browns' defensive and offensive lines were lambasted by fans all year, they both came on to close the season. The defense did not allow a 100-yard rusher in any of its last four games, and the offense finally started to gel and get the ground game going for Peyton Hillis.

I see both of these lines as only one starter away from being really good, if not elite, lines.

On defense, rookies Jabaal Sheard and Phil Taylor excelled and helped the continually impressive Ahtyba Rubin push Cleveland’s defense into a top-ten ranking for the first time in who knows how long.

If the Browns find another all-around end to pair opposite of Sheard, they could become downright scary. Emmanuel Stephens, Marcus Benard and Jayme Mitchell would make for some decent depth as well.

The offensive line should also be much better next year. With Eric Steinbach, returning so should the consistency of the left side of the line. This leaves Jason Pinkston and Shaun Lauvao to battle it out for the right guard spot.

Tony Pashos does not get the credit he deserves. People fail to see that most of the pass rush came over the guards this year. Through Week 15, Pashos had only given up 17 quarterback pressures and 4 sacks throughout the year, which ranked him in the top ten in pass-blocking efficiency for all offensive tackles.

However, there is no way the Browns can count on Pashos healthwise to start at right tackle. But bringing in a young gun to start opposite Joe Thomas would surely make this a formidable line. That would give us some decent depth too with Lauvao/Pinkston, Pashos and John Greco as our backups.

Whether the Browns go offense or defense here just depends on who is available, but I still expect Heckert to focus attention on the trenches, even in a year that will be devoted to home-run hitters.

The Browns Will Draft a Running Back in the First Round…

…but it won’t be Trent Richardson.

Almost every mock that does not have us picking Robert Griffin III has us picking Richardson at No.  4.

Problem is, this is like treating all teams as if they share the same draft philosophy, and one dated in the 1980s at that.

Reality is, this is a pass-first league, and we are running a pass-first offense (granted, poorly). Though Richardson looks to be everything advertised, having a premier back is no longer the model for NFL success.

Couple that with running backs’ short careers and tendency to get injured (as the Browns well experienced in 2011), and I do not see them putting all their eggs in the Richardson basket. But…

…as much as this is a pass-first league, you also cannot win without a running game, as the Browns proved in 2011. I believe we have seen the last of Hillis in Orange and Brown, and we certainly cannot rely on injury-prone Montario Hardesty next year.

What the Browns need is a back with breakaway speed and great field vision, a back with receiving ability, and at a draft position which will not make the team change their offense to the ground-and-pound just to justify the expense. A back like Miami’s Lamar Miller.

The Browns need to be thinking touchdowns in 2012, and taking an explosive back like Miller with Atlanta’s pick would be just what they need to help jump-start this anemic offense.

Any lament over losing Hillis would be quickly erased with play like this: 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f7dxPzUBoi4

The Browns' First Pick Will Be Justin Blackmon

Yes, I have come full circle since last year. Last year, I was one of those who did not think we needed an A.J. Green or Julio Jones.

I reveled in the Browns’ trade down with Atlanta, and trusted whole-heartedly that draft “guru” Tom Heckert would find us our Mike Wallace or DeSean Jackson in the later rounds. You know, someone like Baltimore’s Torrey Smith.

Instead, we got Greg Little. Do not get me wrong, Greg Little is a step in the right direction. At least he looks like he can play in this league (sorry MoMass), but a No. 1 receiver he is not.

Perhaps it was just watching my beloved Brownies get burned by A.J. Green in two games they should have won, but I now know the Browns cannot afford to make the same mistake again.

There are some things that concern me about Blackmon. I do not know how analysts call him big. At 6’1” he hardly towers over any opposing defensive backs. He also does not seem to have the top-end speed of an A.J. Green or Julio Jones, though he could prove me wrong at the combine.

But he is one of those guys you see on tape where you go, “Wow, that guy is an athlete!” And I cannot say that about any Brown, except maybe Cribbs in his prime.

Blackmon proved during the Fiesta Bowl that he is hands-down the best receiver in this draft class, and that is someone the Browns can no longer fail to target.

Imagine how quickly our passing game might turn around with Blackmon, Little, and a proven veteran leading the helm.

I am just hoping beyond hope, as all fans should, that St. Louis or Minnesota do not play spoilers to this scenario.

The Browns Will Make Their Fans Proud in 2012

Okay, this is not an offseason prediction, but who cares?

Yes, we hear this every year. Yes, I can be accused of succumbing to the same optimism I was arguing against on Slide 1, but there are some very good reasons to believe we are still heading for good times.

For one, Holmgren and Heckert are not listening to us nor the media? That’s right. For once we have a unified vision in the front office from people who really know about football. They are going to stay the course no matter how much we whine and complain for them to blow it up, AGAIN!

In case you have not noticed, that is what we have been doing since 1999, and it has not really been working out for us so far.

Plus, H&H are absolutely right: Every team we envy has gone through that struggle before breaking through.

I do not want to be the Chiefs, who have one fluke playoff season one year and then disappear into anonymity again the next. Did you already forget how much 2008 sucked? I do not want to be the post-Heckert Eagles, who break the bank on marquee free agents only to flounder before the playoffs.

When we finally make it back to relevance, I want it to be built on a sound system so that it lasts. And I believe the Browns are almost there.

So next year am I expecting playoffs? Am I expecting us to fix all our problems and fill all our holes in one offseason? No.

But no team is devoid of issues, and we certainly have the ammunition to take a giant step forward next year.

And while I predict we will end up somewhere between 7-9 to 9-7, I think we will definitely start our progression back to competition and respectability.

I think we will finally start making a dent against our division opponents, no longer allowing them to easily reach the playoffs with two gimme games from the Browns; and I think we will all have to find a way to let go of the spite and anger we have been harboring for far too long.

And those are some things that would at least make this Browns' fan happy.