Way-Too-Early Predictions for the 2025 MLB Playoffs and World Series
Congratulations to the Los Angeles Dodgers on winning their eighth World Series in franchise history. Their starting rotation was battered and bruised heading into October and woefully struggled for much of the first two rounds of the playoffs. Still, they saved their best for last while Freddie Freeman and their star-studded offense led the way to a title that was several years in the making.
Now, who's winning the next one?
On the one hand, it is way too early to be hypothesizing about standings and playoff runs for the 2025 MLB season. There is so much up in the air in the form of player/club options, marquee free agents and the inevitable blockbuster trade or two.
On the other hand, betting odds for the 2025 World Series were posted before the 2024 World Series had even begun. The entire sport has now officially turned the page to next year.
Only half (six) of the teams who made the playoffs in 2022 did so again in 2023. The same goes for the transition from 2023 to 2024, with a three-bid AL Central coming as a big shock to everyone. (All hail the Chicago White Sox for going a combined 10-42 against the rest of the division.) But at this not-even-really starting point in the journey to October 2025, we expect a lot of this year's postseason teams to run it back again next year.
If you like where your team is projected, you're welcome. But if you hate it, rest easy knowing that our way-too-early pick from last year of Atlanta over Seattle in the World Series didn't exactly come to fruition, to say the least.
Let's throw some darts, shall we?
American League East
1 of 7
Biggest Unknown: Does Juan Soto remain with the Bronx Bombers?
The prevailing assumption is that Soto will stay with the Yankees on a long-term deal. The Mets presumably would have to outbid their crosstown foes by an absurd amount for him to leave the incredible situation of batting ahead of Aaron Judge.
What if he does walk, though? What if Soto spends his fourth consecutive Opening Day with a different team, leaving the Yankees—who already have questions to answer at first base, second base and left field—right back where they were a year ago, wondering who (aside from Judge) could supply the offense on any given night?
At a leaguewide level, it would have quite the trickle-down effect. If the Mets get Soto, they'd probably let Pete Alonso go. Maybe he ends up in Houston, leading to Alex Bregman signing with the Cubs. So on and so forth.
Then again, sans Soto, maybe the Yankees will go get both Alonso and Bregman and still wind up in great shape for a return trip to the World Series.
Either way, with Judge and (presumably) Gerrit Cole in tow, it's hard to bet against the Yankees repeating as AL East champs. While we don't know where they'll spend to refortify their roster, it's a safe assumption that they will. That isn't necessarily the case for any other team in this division.
Other Big Unknowns
- Are the Orioles and/or Red Sox going to do some serious spending on their starting rotation?
- Will the Blue Jays work out an extension with Vladimir Guerrero Jr.? Will they trade him? Or just let it ride?
- Does Shane McClanahan's return make the Rays a sleeper with a dynamite rotation?
Projected 2025 AL East Standings
1. New York Yankees (96-66)
2. Baltimore Orioles (88-74; wild card)
3. Tampa Bay Rays (84-78)
4. Boston Red Sox (80-82)
5. Toronto Blue Jays (75-87)
American League Central
2 of 7
Biggest Unknown: How aggressive will the Detroit Tigers get?
When the Tigers upended the Houston Astros in the Wild Card Round, their entire 26-man postseason roster had a combined 2024 salary less than Josh Hader made for the Astros.
That's in part because neither Javier Báez ($25 million) nor Kenta Maeda ($14 million) was on the postseason roster, and in part because they traded away several of their highest-priced assets over the first four months of the season.
Only three players on their postseason roster made more than $830,000 in 2024. None of them more than $2.84 million. That means they should have quite a bit of room in the offseason budget to build on this breakout year.
Tarik Skubal's price tag will increase considerably in his second-to-last year of arbitration eligibility, but Detroit's projected payroll with arbitration and pre-arbitration estimates baked into the numbers is still less than $80 million. The Tigers routinely ranked in the top five in payroll from 2007-17. They entered each of the final two years of that stretch with an Opening Day payroll just a shade under $200 million.
They were dormant spenders while rebuilding and waiting out Miguel Cabrera's contract, but maybe chairman and CEO Chris Ilitch will loosen the purse strings now that they have a team worth investing in again.
The biggest need is another starting pitcher to pair with Skubal and 2025 AL Rookie of the Year hopeful Jackson Jobe. The Tigers could also really use a slugger. If they make it happen by bringing in, say, Corbin Burnes and Anthony Santander from Baltimore, they would become the clear favorite to win this division.
Other Big Unknowns
- Will the Royals get Bobby Witt Jr. some help?
- How will the possibility of a sale impact the Twins' offseason plans?
- Could the White Sox trade away Garrett Crochet and Luis Robert Jr. and get even worse?
Projected 2025 AL Central Standings
1. Detroit Tigers (90-72)
2. Cleveland Guardians (88-74; wild card)
3. Kansas City Royals (82-80)
4. Minnesota Twins (78-84)
5. Chicago White Sox (48-114)
American League West
3 of 7
Biggest Unknown: Will the Mariners add some bats?
Seattle's starting rotation was incredible this season. Logan Gilbert, George Kirby and Co. amassed 92 quality starts, joining the 2022 Houston Astros as the only teams in the past six years with at least 90.
Better yet, none of those arms are going anywhere for a while. All six Mariners who recorded at least one quality start in 2024 are under team control through at least 2027.
That collection of aces needs some help in the form of run support, though. Ranking 21st in total runs scored kept the Mariners from partaking in postseason baseball.
To some extent, they just need the current cast of hitters to pull its weight in 2025.
Julio Rodríguez was fantastic down the stretch, but only after posting a .660 OPS through the team's first 133 games. J.P. Crawford dealt with several injuries and ended up with an OPS nearly 200 points below what he did in 2023. Factor in the offseason acquisitions of Mitch Garver, Mitch Haniger and Jorge Polanco all amounting to a whole lot of nothing and things were rough.
Can they find some actual solutions this offseason, though? Anything on the level of Soto, Alonso or Bregman might be a pipe dream, but could they bring back Teoscar Hernández? Sign Gleyber Torres? Maybe trade for a Brent Rooker or a Luis Robert Jr.?
Seattle should've won the AL West this season, but it blew a 10-game lead in mid-June in a hurry. Maybe the M's will add enough offense to keep that from happening again.
Other Big Unknowns
- Does Alex Bregman stay with Houston?
- After making three starts each in 2024, can Jacob deGrom, Tyler Mahle and Kumar Rocker propel the Rangers back to contention?
- Is there anything the Angels can do to avoid another year of total irrelevance?
Projected 2025 AL West Standings
1. Houston Astros (91-71)
2. Seattle Mariners (87-75; wild card)
3. Texas Rangers (85-77)
4. Oakland/Sacramento/Las Vegas Athletics (71-91)
5. Los Angeles Angels (64-98)
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National League East
4 of 7
Biggest Unknown: When will Spencer Strider and Ronald Acuña Jr. return to action?
Strider's 2024 campaign ended after only two appearances. He underwent UCL surgery in mid-April. Atlanta's silver lining is that it wasn't a full-blown Tommy John surgery, which typically has a 14-16-month recovery timetable. It was an internal brace procedure, which could have Strider back in time for Opening Day.
Then again, Shohei Ohtani underwent the same procedure in September 2023, and he was unavailable to pitch even in the World Series nearly 14 months later. So, we'll see how Strider heals up and whether he can take the mound in spring training.
And then there's Acuña, who suffered a torn ACL in late May. He did previously return from a torn ACL in under 300 days, which was remarkably fast. However, he did so as a shell of his former self, posting a .764 OPS in 2022 compared to a .925 mark over the previous four seasons.
Atlanta's 2025 opener is 301 days after Acuña's surgery, so, maybe? They might be more cautious with his rehab this time around, though.
Strider led the majors with 20 wins and 281 strikeouts in 2023 and arguably should have won the NL Cy Young. That same year, Acuña had 41 home runs and 73 stolen bases en route to NL MVP. Whether they'll be back for Opening Day or out until Memorial Day could have massive ramifications for the NL East standings.
Other Big Unknowns
- What will the Mets end up with after their impending spending spree?
- Do the Phillies have room in their budget to do anything this winter? (Do they need to?)
- Could the Nationals be this year's Royals, doing a surprising amount of offseason spending en route to a drastic turnaround?
Projected 2025 NL East Standings
1. Philadelphia Phillies (93-69)
2. New York Mets (90-72; wild card)
3. Atlanta Braves (87-75)
4. Washington Nationals (76-86)
5. Miami Marlins (62-100)
National League Central
5 of 7
Biggest Unknown: Who wants it the most?
In the first three years of the 12-team postseason format, five of the six divisions have produced at least two wild-card teams. (Not necessarily both in the same year.)
Not the NL Central, though, which has sent only one team each year. That division winner has immediately lost to the No. 6 seed all three times, too.
If the NL Central is once again a race for one playoff berth in 2025, what a theatrical five-way extravaganza it could be.
The Cubs look like the team to beat, but all nine players who appeared in at least 95 games in 2023 posted a worse OPS this season, save for Seiya Suzuki improving from .842 to .848. Even so, they posted a plus-67 run differential and should have won five more games than they did. They'll have pretty much the whole gang back together again, assuming Cody Bellinger exercises his $27.5 million player option. Can they snag an ace to replace Kyle Hendricks, though?
Could the Brewers run it back again without Willy Adames? Getting Brandon Woodruff back into the mix should be a big help, and they ought to remain elite on defense with Brice Turang at second base and a strong outfield behind him. But replacing Adames' 112 RBI may be an adventure for a team that usually has a small budget for free agents.
Both the Reds and the Cardinals need pitching. Hunter Greene was awesome for Cincinnati, and Sonny Gray pitched much better for the Cardinals than his 3.84 ERA suggests. However, the rest of those rotations are highly questionable, with most of last winter's eight-figure acquisitions—Frankie Montas and Nick Martinez for Cincinnati; Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson for St. Louis—likely now out of the picture. Will either team make a big splash?
And after six consecutive seasons with a winning percentage below .470, are the Pirates finally ready to spend/shine? The last time they had a young ace, they surrounded Gerrit Cole with enough talent to make the postseason in three consecutive years. One big upgrade in the lineup could be all they need to get Paul Skenes there.
Our early shot in the dark is Cincinnati, which probably approaches free agency with a fair amount of aggressiveness and could get a lot better just by getting healthy/productive seasons out of Matt McLain, Christian Encarnacion-Strand and Noelvi Marte. But there are 120 different orders in which these five teams could finish next season, none of which would be all that surprising.
Other Big Unknowns
- Will Rhys Hoskins exercise his player option and return to Milwaukee? And will Christian Yelich (back surgery) return at full strength?
- Might the Cardinals look to trade Sonny Gray with two years and $65 million left on his contract?
- Can Pirates closer David Bednar rebound from his horrendous 2024 season?
Projected 2025 NL Central Standings
1. Cincinnati Reds (86-76)
2. Chicago Cubs (85-77)
3. Milwaukee Brewers (82-80)
4. St. Louis Cardinals (78-84)
5. Pittsburgh Pirates (74-88)
National League West
6 of 7
Biggest Unknown: What will the Padres do about losing Joe Musgrove?
For most of this season, the thought of not having a healthy Musgrove in 2025 was hardly a problem for the Padres. Before his return from the IL in mid-August, he had made 10 starts with a 5.66 ERA.
Musgrove was phenomenal down the stretch, though, including allowing just one baserunner in 3.2 innings pitched in his Wild Card Round start against Atlanta. However, he left that game with what turned out to be a UCL tear. Tommy John surgery will leave him on the shelf for all of 2025.
So, now what for San Diego?
The Padres still have 38-year-old Yu Darvish for another four years and one more season of Dylan Cease and Michael King before they hit free agency. That's a strong top three. Can they go get one more arm, though, or will they let it ride with Randy Vásquez (4.87 ERA in 2024) and Matt Waldron (4.91 ERA)?
They also need to figure out how to replace/re-sign all of Jurickson Profar, Kyle Higashioka, Donovan Solano, David Peralta and, presumably, Ha-Seong Kim, who has a $7 million mutual option that's never going to happen. That's five of the 11 players who hit at least five home runs this season for the Padres. They already have an estimated payroll north of $200 million without any of them.
With Cease, King, Luis Arráez, and Robert Suárez (player option) all slated for free agency after next season, 2025 might be the last year of the window in which the Padres should make the postseason and reasonably win it all. We'll see if they approach free agency aggressively/accordingly.
Other Big Unknowns
- Will Shohei Ohtani take the mound for a Dodgers team that has a staggering six starters—also Tyler Glasnow, Gavin Stone, Clayton Kershaw, Dustin May and Tony Gonsolin—returning from injury?
- Does Blake Snell stay with the Giants?
- What will the Diamondbacks do about their Jordan Montgomery situation?
Projected 2025 NL West Standings
1. Los Angeles Dodgers (98-64)
2. San Diego Padres (90-72; wild card)
3. Arizona Diamondbacks (88-74; wild card)
4. San Francisco Giants (77-85)
5. Colorado Rockies (57-105)
Projecting the Postseason
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Wild Card Series
NL1: No. 4 San Diego Padres over No. 5 New York Mets
NL2: No. 6 Arizona Diamondbacks over No. 3 Cincinnati Reds
AL1: No. 5 Baltimore Orioles over No. 4 Cleveland Guardians
AL2: No. 3 Detroit Tigers over No. 6 Seattle Mariners
Division Series
NL1: No. 1 Los Angeles Dodgers over No. 4 San Diego Padres
NL2: No. 6 Arizona Diamondbacks over No. 2 Philadelphia Phillies
AL1: No. 1 New York Yankees over No. 5 Baltimore Orioles
AL2: No. 3 Detroit Tigers over No. 2 Houston Astros
Championship Series
NLCS: No. 1 Los Angeles Dodgers over No. 6 Arizona Diamondbacks
ALCS: No. 3 Detroit Tigers over No. 1 New York Yankees
World Series
No. 1 Los Angeles Dodgers over No. 3 Detroit Tigers
Salary info via Spotrac.
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