Bleacher Report's 2024-25 Bowl Projections Entering Week 8
The halfway mark of the 2024 college football season provides a juxtaposition of both clarity and unknowns.
At this point, we generally agree on the best teams in the country. Sure, our opinions may vary slightly, but programs such as Georgia, Ohio State, Oregon and Texas aren't exactly divisive.
The following tiers, on the other hand, are loaded with questions. How concerning are Alabama and Tennessee? How about Ole Miss? Do we flip Clemson into the ACC's automatic bid over Miami? Should we pencil a second Big 12 team into the College Football Playoff?
The beautiful part is future games will resolve many of those conversations. In fact, Alabama plays at Tennessee in Week 8.
We'll be watching to see if reality aligns with these projections.
The picks are subjective but based on official tie-ins while observing all selection processes and contingencies.
Group of 5 Games
1 of 5
Camellia Bowl (Dec. 14): Ohio vs. James Madison
Boca Raton Bowl (Dec. 18): South Florida vs. Georgia State
New Orleans Bowl (Dec. 19): Western Kentucky vs. Texas State
Cure Bowl (Dec. 20): Connecticut vs. Georgia Southern
Myrtle Beach Bowl (Dec. 23): Charlotte vs. Coastal Carolina
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl (Dec. 23): Buffalo vs. Colorado State
Hawai'i Bowl (Dec. 24): Liberty vs. Fresno State
68Ventures (Dec. 26): Central Michigan vs. Louisiana
New Mexico Bowl (Dec. 28): Jacksonville State vs. Louisiana-Monroe
Arizona Bowl (Dec. 28): Toledo vs. San Jose State
Bahamas Bowl (Jan. 4): Sam Houston vs. Northern Illinois
Trending Up: Connecticut Huskies
Prior to Jim Mora's arrival in 2022, the program had made a single bowl appearance in the previous decade, but the third-year coach has UConn on the verge of a second postseason trip in three seasons. Connecticut has a tough matchup with Wake Forest up next but is 4-2 and may be favored in at least three of its remaining games.
Trending Down: South Florida Bulls
With or without quarterback Byrum Brown—who missed the recent game against Memphis—South Florida might have been 2-4 anyway. It's not even a surprising record for the Bulls, considering their nonconference slate included Alabama and Miami with early AAC tilts opposite front-runners Tulane and Memphis. Still, that's now four losses, shrinking USF's margin for error.
G5 vs. P4 Matchups
2 of 5
Frisco Bowl (Dec. 17): North Texas vs. Cincinnati
LA Bowl (Dec. 18): UNLV vs. Colorado
Detroit Bowl (Dec. 26): Eastern Michigan vs. Wisconsin
Armed Forces Bowl (Dec. 27): Tulane vs. TCU
Fenway Bowl (Dec. 28): Memphis vs. Virginia Tech
Military Bowl (Dec. 28): Navy vs. Boston College
Independence Bowl (Dec. 28): Army vs. Washington State
Trending Up: Cincinnati Bearcats
Scott Satterfield's first season was a mess, ending with a 3-9 record after the program had a great run with Luke Fickell. However, the Bearcats are back trending in a positive direction after clipping UCF on the road. That result moved Cincinnati to 4-2. I wouldn't use a pen on the Bearcats in these projections, but they're certainly in a favorable spot.
Game to Watch: North Texas at Memphis
Boise State remains my prediction to represent the Group of Five in the College Football Playoff. But if that changes, it'll probably shift to the AAC champion. Memphis lost to Navy earlier this season, so this is a particularly critical outing. North Texas, meanwhile, is entering a decisive three-game stretch that continues with Tulane and Army. Saturday's winner will take a valuable step toward the AAC title game.
Power 4 Bowls, Part 1
3 of 5
Gasparilla Bowl (Dec. 20): Cal vs. Kentucky
Guaranteed Rate Bowl (Dec. 26): Rutgers vs. Oklahoma State
Birmingham Bowl (Dec. 27): Virginia vs. Michigan State
Liberty Bowl (Dec. 27): West Virginia vs. Vanderbilt
Holiday Bowl (Dec. 27): SMU vs. Arizona State
Las Vegas Bowl (Dec. 27): Washington vs. Missouri
Pinstripe Bowl (Dec. 28): Georgia Tech vs. Illinois
Pop-Tarts Bowl (Dec. 28): Syracuse vs. BYU
Alamo Bowl (Dec. 28): Kansas State vs. USC
Trending Up: Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
The good news is Georgia Tech sits a single win outside of attaining bowl eligibility. That's also why the 5-2 Jackets are listed here, because it might get a lot rougher soon. Down the stretch, they play Notre Dame (ranked 12th), Miami (sixth) and Georgia (fifth).
Trending Down: Kentucky Wildcats
I have formally decided Kentucky is the most confusing team in the country. Got destroyed by South Carolina, almost beat Georgia. Took down Ole Miss on the road, lost at home to Vanderbilt. Kentucky, 3-3, doesn't desperately need victories over Florida and Auburn during the next two weekends. But if the Wildcats lose one of those SEC contests, their bowl outlook will be very concerning.
Power 4 Bowls, Part 2
4 of 5
Music City Bowl (Dec. 30): Nebraska vs. Oklahoma
ReliaQuest Bowl (Dec. 31): Michigan vs. Tennessee
Sun Bowl (Dec. 31): Duke vs. Utah
Citrus Bowl (Dec. 31): Indiana vs. Ole Miss
Texas Bowl (Dec. 31): Texas Tech vs. Arkansas
Gator Bowl (Jan. 2): Louisville vs. Texas A&M
First Responder (Jan. 3): Arizona vs. Oregon State
Mayo Bowl (Jan. 3): Pitt vs. Iowa
Trending Up: Iowa Hawkeyes
Because of the recent loss to Ohio State, I can't quite suggest Iowa is a true player in the Big Ten championship race. That'll require the Buckeyes—even after falling at Oregon—to get upset once. If that happens, though, the Hawkeyes may crash the party. They're set to play Michigan State (away), Northwestern (home), Wisconsin (h), UCLA (a), Maryland (a) and Nebraska (h), so there's a real chance that 4-2 Iowa is favored in every remaining game.
Trending Down: Oklahoma Sooners
Oklahoma, on the other hand, is running thin on those chances. If the Sooners beat South Carolina on Saturday, a bowl appearance will happen. They'd be 5-2 with lower-division Maine to play in November. But if South Carolina—coached by former OU assistant Shane Beamer—pulls out a win, the Sooners would have to upset Ole Miss, Missouri, Alabama or LSU to reach six victories.
College Football Playoff
5 of 5
First-Round Byes
The five highest-ranked conference champions (*) will automatically earn a CFP berth, and the four highest-ranked of that group will be placed in the quarterfinals. While this quartet is assumed to be from the Power 4 (ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC), that's not guaranteed.
No. 1: Texas*, SEC champion in Sugar Bowl
No. 2: Oregon*, Big Ten champion in Rose Bowl
No. 3: Miami*, ACC champion in Peach Bowl
No. 4: Iowa State*, Big 12 champion in Fiesta Bowl
First-Round Games
No. 12 LSU at No. 5 Ohio State (winner to Fiesta Bowl)
No. 11 Boise State* (MWC champion) at No. 6 Georgia (winner to Peach Bowl)
No. 10 Notre Dame at No. 7 Clemson (winner to Rose Bowl)
No. 9 Alabama at No. 8 Penn State (winner to Sugar Bowl)
Game to Watch, Part 1: Georgia at Texas
The nation's fifth-ranked team is headed to play No. 1. Yeah, I think we'll all be tracking this one. Georgia already has a loss in SEC action, so the Dawgs need a win to stay alive in the conference race. However, they'll be battling a Longhorns defense that has yielded just 38 points in six games. Texas can cement itself as the SEC favorite with a victory.
Game to Watch, Part 2: Alabama at Tennessee
While that matchup lands the prime-time treatment, Alabama's trip to Tennessee is the featured mid-afternoon game. These programs can really use a win—literally and metaphorically. Last weekend, they followed an upset loss with an unimpressive and uncomfortable victory. The loser of this rivalry will endure a second SEC setback and drift toward the fringe of the CFP picture, too.
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