Expert Predictions on Next Big-money NBA Contract Extensions Ahead of Deadline
The NBA's new collective bargaining agreement favors extensions over free agency. If the team and the player want to continue their relationship, they might as well get a deal done early.
The Oct. 21 deadline for two types of extensions—2021 rookie-scale players (for the first-round selections) and veterans with more than one year remaining on their contracts—is coming up. While vets on expiring deals have until the end of June to extend, the rest have just under two weeks to complete their deals.
Extension Guidelines
1 of 9
Very few teams project to have significant cap room next offseason. Outside of the Brooklyn Nets and Washington Wizards, few will have the spending power to issue significant contracts to free agents (or offer sheets to restricted players).
Generally speaking, teams have leverage throughout this negotiating period. Even so, some will pay the most they possibly can to the players they believe in, like the Detroit Pistons issuing Cade Cunningham a max extension. The Boston Celtics took care of Jayson Tatum. The market does not always drive the price.
But for players who have been extension-eligible since early July and whose prospective deals are still pending, negotiations are likely nuanced, complex and influenced by who might be offering more in July (an issue when the majority of teams won't have more than the projected non-taxpayer mid-level exception [NTMLE] of $14.1 million).
Based on deals this offseason and last, the general salary tiers include:
- Potential "Supermax:" This has the team paying the most they can, like the Toronto Raptors with Scottie Barnes, with a bump if he earns MVP, Defensive Player of the Year or is named to one of the All-NBA teams.
- Near-Max: The Memphis Grizzlies gave Desmond Bane just under the max (still reachable player performance incentives).
- Large: Last year, Devin Vassell (San Antonio Spurs) and Jaden McDaniels (Minnesota Timberwolves) earned in the $131-146 million range over five years. The Cleveland Cavaliers paid Jarrett Allen $90.7 million this August over three additional seasons.
- Mid-Tier: Just under or somewhat above the projected NTMLE that players like Josh Green (Dallas Mavericks, now with the Charlotte Hornets), Cole Anthony (Orlando Magic), Aaron Nesmith (Indiana Pacers), Isaiah Stewart II (Detroit Pistons) and others got last year. The Pacers took care of TJ McConnell in September at $45 million over four years.
- Small: Payton Pritchard's deal with the Celtics was a steal for the team in 2023, as it started at almost half of the NTMLE. The New Orleans Pelicans recently locked up Jose Alvarado at a $4.5 million starting salary for 2025-26.
The Waiting Game
2 of 9
The Philadelphia 76ers made Tyrese Maxey wait a year. Instead of issuing an extension, the team took advantage of Maxey's low cap hold as a restricted free agent to maximize its cap space to sign Paul George and others. They then rewarded Maxey with the most they could pay him as a restricted free agent.
Similarly, others may choose to wait either for financial flexibility or uncertainty. Are the Houston Rockets convinced today that they should max out Jalen Green? Would he rather wait for the chance for a tremendous season to pressure the team to pay him next July?
The Rockets may or may not choose to go under the cap next summer, which could delay a deal for Alperen Şengün, whose cap hold will be $16.3 million while his max salary projects to be $38.7 million.
Others who may need to wait because the team and player may not be on the same page with price or because the team may want to maximize cap space include Josh Giddey (Chicago Bulls), Corey Kispert (Washington Wizards), Jonathan Kuminga (Golden State Warriors), Moses Moody (Warriors) and Cam Thomas (Brooklyn Nets).
Omitted from the list: veterans who can opt out to extend after the October deadline, like Rudy Gobert (Minnesota Timberwolves), Julius Randle (Timberwolves), Aaron Gordon (Denver Nuggets) and Jimmy Butler (Miami Heat).
Kevin Durant, Phoenix Suns
3 of 9
Current salary: $51.2 million
Total due: $105.9 million through 2025-26
Best comp: Stephen Curry
Prediction: $59.5 million for 2026-27
The Suns can and should reward Durant with an extension. Like Curry with the Golden State Warriors, Durant can only add one year (because of age). Phoenix has shown it's willing to invest heavily, almost in defiance of the new rules.
Why stop now with Durant? It's only for one season and may keep your headliner happy. Since Bradley Beal will undoubtedly opt into his final year (2026-27) at $57.1 million, the Suns won't be able to start changing direction until the following year.
Mikal Bridges, New York Knicks
4 of 9
Current salary: $23.3 million
Total due: $48.2 million through 2025-26
Best comp: OG Anunoby (recently signed a five-year, $212.5 million contract)
Prediction: No deal
Don't let the "pessimistic" prediction fool you; the Knicks and Bridges will likely continue their relationship beyond his current contract. The immediate challenge before the deadline is that the July trade that landed Bridges in New York limits him to an extension starting at $29.9 million and two additional years.
By waiting until next summer—after his extend-and-trade restriction—Bridges can sign up to $34.9 million in the first year while tacking on four additional seasons.
Jaren Jackson Jr., Memphis Grizzlies
5 of 9
Current salary: $25.3 million
Total due: $48.7 million through 2025-26
Best comp: Evan Mobley (recently added five years, approximately $224.2 million)
Prediction: $32.8 million starting salary, $106.2 million over three
While Mobley is in a different situation as a rookie-scale player, he and Jackson are somewhat similar as mobile, defensive-minded power forward/centers (though Jackson averaged 22.5 points per game last season).
The Grizzlies would undoubtedly love to extend Jackson now at the most allowed ($106.2 million). That may be too much for Jackson to turn down, though he may have his eye on a supermax since winning Defensive Player of the Year is within his grasp (he won the award in 2022-23).
Of course, there's no guarantee he will repeat or that the Grizzlies will pay him the most they can, which is why a compromise now may make the most sense.
Jalen Suggs, Orlando Magic
6 of 9
Current salary: $9.1 million
2025 cap hold: $27.5 million
Best comp: Vassell/McDaniels
Prediction: $25.5 million starting salary, $114.2 million over four
Suggs and the Magic should find a compromise. The franchise can wait and see how it fares this season and play the team-friendly market, but if the guard will take a workable number, then get a deal done.
Suggs is arguably more impactful than Vassell (especially defensively) and fills a role similar to McDaniels as a vital starter on a playoff team. While he can hold out for more, locking in financial stability now should be the priority if he can get enough from Orlando.
Trey Murphy III, New Orleans Pelicans
7 of 9
Current salary: $5.2 million
2025 cap hold: $15.5 million
Best comp: Vassell/McDaniels
Prediction: $27.9 million starting salary, $125 million over four
The Pelicans historically avoid luxury taxes and may choose to reinvest in Murphy over Brandon Ingram—eventually trading the veteran to lower payroll. Murphy is a better fit on the roster as an outside shooter with size.
If the price is too high, New Orleans will wait. The shorter contract (than the five-year max) would be a compromise with both sides hedging their bets.
Jalen Johnson, Atlanta Hawks
8 of 9
Current salary: $4.5 million
2025 cap hold: $13.5 million
Best comp: Vassell/McDaniels to Bane
Prediction: $28.8 million starting salary, $167 million over five
While this may be more of a reach given the price, the Hawks may be wise to lock up Johnson to a long-term deal before he blows up this season. Outside of Trae Young, Johnson should be the Hawks' most impactful player through 2024-25.
De'Aaron Fox, Sacramento Kings
9 of 9
Current salary: $34.8 million
Total due: $71.9 million through 2025-26
Best comp: Donovan Mitchell (recently signed for three more years at $150.3 million)
Prediction: No deal
Fox was named to the All-NBA Third Team in 2022-23 but fell short last season. If he can get back on the list, he'll be eligible for a supermax extension starting at a projected $59.5 million in 2026-27.
If he signs now, it would be for a shorter deal (three additional years) starting at $51 million. Since the supermax can add up to five seasons, Fox should wait to extend while leading the Kings to a huge 2024-25 campaign.
Email Eric Pincus at eric.pincus@gmail.com and follow him on X/Twitter @EricPincus.
.jpg?w=600 "Mendoza May Sit to Start Year")
.jpg?w=600 "Latest NFL QB eyeing TV career")
