Grading Completed NBA Rookie-Scale Extensions + Predictions for Ongoing Negotiations
The rookie-scale extension window for the top 30 players from the 2021 NBA draft class officially started on July 6 and has an October 21 deadline.
Some have already locked in deals.
Most are still pending.
Back in March, B/R predicted who would extend and for how much. Today, with the NBA transaction mill seemingly halted ahead of the new season (and to allow football its September spotlight), is the time to review how the market has shifted and how teams are adjusting to the new restrictive rules of the 2023 collective bargaining agreement.
The following list grades the deals that have already been executed, and it also predicts those still pending.
Negotiating/Grading Guidelines
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With the NBA's new broadcast deal starting ahead of the 2025-26 season, the salary cap is widely expected to climb 10 percent from this year's $140.6 million to $154.6 million.
A player's standard max is 25 percent of the cap or a projected $38.7 million for 2025-26, paying out up to $224.2 million over five seasons. Should a player qualify by earning MVP, Defensive Player of the Year or an All-NBA team honor, that max can climb to a $46.4 million starting salary ($269.1 million total).
Last summer's rookie-scale extensions fell into five categories:
- Potential "Supermax"—Three players signed with that extra bump—but only Tyrese Haliburton (Indiana Pacers) and Anthony Edwards (Minnesota Timberwolves) reached the criteria. LaMelo Ball (Charlotte Hornets) signed a similar deal, but his salary this season starts at $35.1 million, while the other two will earn $42.2 million.
- Near-Max—Desmond Bane (Memphis Grizzlies) will earn $34 million this season but has $1.1 million in unlikely incentives that could match Ball's salary.
- Large: Devin Vassell (San Antonio Spurs) and Jaden McDaniels (Timberwolves) represent the next tier, with lucrative incentivized five-year deals of $135-$146 million and $131-$136 million, respectively.
- Mid-Tier—Most of the remaining extensions started near the non-taxpayer mid-level exception (NTMLE), currently at $12.8 million, and ranged from three to four-year deals. Those include Isaiah Stewart II (Detroit Pistons) at $15 million starting salary, Deni Avdija (extended with the Washington Wizards, traded to the Portland Trail Blazers) at $15.6 million (descending annually), Onyeka Okongwu (Atlanta Hawks) at $14 million, Josh Green (initially with Dallas Mavericks, now Hornets) at $13.7 million and Cole Anthony (Orlando Magic) at $13 million and Aaron Nesmith (Indiana Pacers) at a flat $11 million per year.
- Small—Payton Pritchard's deal with the Boston Celtics looks like a steal for the team, starting at $6.7 million. Zeke Nnaji is at a good number ($8.9 million, with a mostly descending salary) but didn't make as significant an impact with the Denver Nuggets as Pritchard in Boston.
Typically, the big deals happen right away (July), but the rest take a few months, and many are resolved on the deadline. Last year, not every eligible player was extended, leading to restricted free agency. Tyrese Maxey (Philadelphia 76ers), Immanuel Quickley (Toronto Raptors) and Patrick Williams (Chicago Bulls) signed new contracts in July.
Others moved on to other teams, and some may not even stay in the NBA this coming year—something to remember when reviewing the list of unresolved players.
Omissions
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The following players from the 2021 NBA draft and from our original rankings didn't complete their initial contract and are not eligible to extend this offseason:
- No. 24: Josh Christopher (Rockets)
- No. 23: Usman Garuba (Rockets)
- No. 21: Keon Johnson (Clippers, via draft-related trade)
- No. 19: Kai Jones (Hornets, via draft-related trade)
- No. 12: Josh Primo (Spurs)
- No. 11: James Bouknight (Hornets)
No. 30: Santi Aldama, Memphis Grizzlies
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Santi Aldama is a steady reserve for the Grizzlies, and a credible floor spreader at 6'11". His future with the team may depend on how well he fits with young 7'4" center Zach Edey (No. 9 in June). Memphis may want to wait before overcommitting.
2023-24 averages (61 games, 35 starts): 26.5 minutes, 10.7 points, 4.8 rebounds, 34.9 percent from three
Closest comp: Avdija, Green, Nesmith
March expectation: Difficult to gauge and may need to wait for free agency, but could get in the 3-4 year range at about $13-14 million per season.
Current expectation: The Grizzlies may only extend Aldama to a team-favorable deal. In addition to significant commitments to Ja Morant and Bane, both Jaren Jackson Jr. and Marcus Smart will need new deals after 2025-26. Memphis has some serious decisions ahead, especially if the team doesn't bounce back from a lost season.
No. 29: Day'Ron Sharpe, Brooklyn Nets
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Day'Ron Sharpe has the size and heft at center but is stuck behind one of the few players the Brooklyn Nets seem invested in long-term (Nicolas Claxton). Sharpe needs more minutes to show what he's capable of, but that may not be in Brooklyn.
2023-24 averages (61 games, one start): 15.1 minutes, 6.8 points, 6.4 rebounds, 57.1 percent from the field
Closest comp: More productive than Nnaji, but not quite Stewart or Okongwu levels.
March expectation: Perhaps a three-year compromise at $10-11 million a season.
Current expectation: The Claxton deal doesn't bode well for Sharpe. A rebuilding team probably won't invest heavily in a backup unless they're trying to generate a trade asset with the contract.
No. 28: Jaden Springer, Boston Celtics
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Jaden Springer's trade from the Philadelphia 76ers to the Celtics led to his first championship ring. He didn't play a significant role, but perhaps that will change with a full training camp and greater familiarity with the team.
2023-24 averages (17 games, one start with Boston; 49 and two overall): 7.6 minutes, 2.1 points with Boston; 10.3 minutes, 3.3 points overall)
Closest comp: Pritchard or Nnaji
March expectation: No extension
Current expectation: Unless the Celtics see something substantial in Springer, he probably needs to wait for his next contract.
No. 27: Cam Thomas, Brooklyn Nets
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Few players in the league can put up points as quickly as Cam Thomas, but with the Nets rebuilding, do they invest early in the scorer?
2023-24 averages (66 games, 51 starts): 31.4 minutes, 22.5 points, 3.2 rebounds, 36.4 percent from three
Closest comp: Vassell
March expectation: If he's asking for Vassell money, that probably comes via restricted free agency.
Current expectation: The Nets project to have more cap room than any other franchise (about $56 million, depending on the 2025 draft and which players they choose to retain in free agency, etc.). Waiting makes sense; Thomas' cap hold as a free agent is just $12.1 million. The team can spend first, then re-sign Thomas to a bigger deal next summer.
No. 26: Bones Hyland, Los Angeles Clippers
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The LA Clippers don't seem to be fully invested in Bones Hyland. The team replaced Russell Westbrook at backup point guard with Kris Dunn and Kevin Porter Jr. It's difficult to imagine where Hyland will find significant minutes, barring injuries.
2023-24 averages (37, five starts): 14.6 minutes, 6.9 points, 2.5 assists, 32.6 percent from three
Closest comp: Pritchard
March expectation: A long shot.
Current expectation: Still unlikely.
No. 25: Quentin Grimes, Dallas Mavericks
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Quentin Grimes had a steady role with the New York Knicks, but the team sent him via trade to the Detroit Pistons, where he didn't play much at all (just six games, shooting 14.3 percent from three-point range). Detroit turned him around via trade to the Dallas Mavericks, where he may find an opportunity as a defensive-minded guard.
2023-24 averages (51 games, 18 starts): 20.1 minutes, 7.0 points, 33.8 percent from three-point range
Closest comp: Pritchard
March expectation: No extension in Detroit.
Current expectation: Dallas might be open to a team-friendly deal, but it may be better for Grimes to improve his value before taking an extension.
No. 22: Isaiah Jackson, Indiana Pacers
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Jalen Smith moved on to the Chicago Bulls, opening up a backup center spot for the Indiana Pacers. Isaiah Jackson is 6'10" but doesn't have the build at just 205 lbs. Indiana lists him as a forward and signed James Wiseman to a partially guaranteed contract as a possible backup to Myles Turner. With Pascal Siakam and Obi Toppin re-signing, minutes will be scarce for Smith at power forward.
2023-24 averages (59 games, three starts): 13.1 minutes, 6.5 points, 4.0 rebounds, 66.5 percent from the field
Closest comp: Nnaji
March expectation: No extension.
Current expectation: Still unlikely.
No. 20: Jalen Johnson, Atlanta Hawks
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In asking several competing executives about the 2021 draft class, Jalen Johnson's name came up as one they're watching closely, with his combination of size (6'9") and skill. The Atlanta Hawks are expected, however, to retain him.
2023-24 averages (56 games, 52 starts): 33.7 minutes, 16.0 points, 8.7 rebounds, 35.5 percent from three
Closest comp: Vassell, McDaniels
March expectation: Johnson could fight for $25-30 million annually.
Current expectation: Competing executives suggested he could end up even higher.
No. 18: Tre Mann, Charlotte Hornets
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New leadership in Charlotte makes the Hornets challenging to read. Will executive Jeff Peterson take care of Tre Mann this summer?
Outside of 30-year-old Serbian point guard Vasilije Micić, the Hornets don't have much at point guard behind Ball. Mann is a steady reserve who can start when needed.
2023-24 averages (28 games, 28 starts; 41 and 28 overall): 31.0 minutes, 11.9 points, 5.2 assists, 36.4 percent from three; 24.1 minutes, 9.3 points, 4.0 assists, 37.3 percent overall
Closest comp: Anthony
March expectation: Short, partially guaranteed deal (three years) at about $13 million per year.
Current expectation: A viable compromise for both sides seems wise.
No. 17: Trey Murphy III, New Orleans Pelicans
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Like Johnson with the Hawks, Trey Murphy III has fans in competing front offices throughout the league. The New Orleans Pelicans face several decisions over the next year, including a potential veteran extension for Brandon Ingram. The team may need to decide between the two and may lean toward Murphy.
2023-24 averages (57 games, 23 starts): 29.6 minutes, 14.8 points, 4.9 rebounds, 38.0 percent from three
Closest comp: McDaniels
March expectation: Murphy would seek at least $20 million annually, but an extension may be closer to $15-18 million.
Current expectation: Competing executives disagreed with the prior forecast and expect Murphy to be closer to McDaniels.
No. 16: Alperen Şengün, Houston Rockets
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The Houston Rockets saw Alperen Şengün emerge as one of the top-scoring big men in the league. He's presumably staying long-term, but the question may be timing. If the team chooses to keep Fred VanVleet past this season on his $44.9 million team option, a Şengün extension may be forthcoming. If the team wants to get back under the cap in 2025, Şengün may need to wait.
2023-24 averages (63 games, 63 starts): 32.5 minutes, 21.1 points, 9.3 rebounds, 5.0 assists, 53.7 percent from the field
Closest comp: Bane's near max.
March expectation: A reasonable but high-dollar extension.
Current expectation: It's all about Houston's future plans, as Şengün's cap hold is just $16.3 million as a restricted free agent. The team may choose to wait to maintain flexibility.
No. 15: Corey Kispert, Washington Wizards
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When a team has a change of leadership (Michael Winger taking over for Tommy Sheppard in May 2023), the new hire may not have the same attachment to the players they didn't draft. Winger gave Avdija a team-friendly but solid extension last year, then traded him to the Portland Trail Blazers this offseason.
Where does he stand on Corey Kispert? It's difficult to say.
2023-24 averages (80 games, 22 starts): 25.8 minutes, 13.4 points, 2.8 rebounds, 38.3 percent from three
Closest comp: Avdija, Green
March expectation: Three or four years at $11-13 million each.
Current expectation: It's not unreasonable to predict the Wizards try to turn Kispert around to another team after giving him a friendly extension. He doesn't seem to be someone the Wizards are ready to invest in long-term for themselves.
No. 14: Moses Moody, Golden State Warriors
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Does the Golden State Warriors' shift away from Klay Thompson (now on the Mavericks) signal an opportunity ahead for Moses Moody? Has Brandin Podziemski made him less relevant, along with the budget acquisition of Buddy Hield ($8.8 million for the coming season)?
2023-24 averages (66 games, nine starts): 17.5 minutes, 8.1 points, 3.0 rebounds, 36.0 percent from three
Closest comp: Nesmith, Green, Pritchard
March expectation: Moody may seek Nesmith/Green prices, but the Warriors may stick to the Pritchard range.
Current expectation: The Warriors may believe Moody is a good longer-term fit, but the early signs suggest this may go to restricted free agency.
No. 13: Chris Duarte, Chicago Bulls
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A new home for Chris Duarte may help him revitalize his career after he fell out of favor with the Pacers and never quite got his footing in Sacramento with the Kings. Traded to the Bulls, Duarte may need to prove himself before locking in a deal.
2023-24 averages (59 games, 11 starts): 12.2 minutes, 3.9 points, 34.6 percent from three
Closest comp: Pritchard
March expectation: No deal.
Current expectation: No deal.
No. 10: Ziaire Williams, Brooklyn Nets
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The Grizzlies, facing budget issues, sent Ziaire Williams to the Nets this summer. He should get the chance to prove he's more than just a tremendous athlete. With Brooklyn rebuilding, they may not pay him sight unseen unless it's at a discount.
2023-24 averages (51 games, 15 starts): 20.4 minutes, 8.2 points, 3.5 rebounds, 30.7 percent from three
Closest comp: Nesmith without the defense or shooting ability?
March expectation: No extension.
Current expectation: Still probably no extension.
No. 9: Davion Mitchell, Toronto Raptors
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The Kings sent Davion Mitchell to the Toronto Raptors in late June, where he'll likely serve as Quickley's backup. Mitchell plays hard defensively and could be a nice fit with the team—although his offense remains a work in progress.
2023-24 averages (72 games, four starts): 15.3 minutes, 5.3 points, 1.9 assists, 36.1 percent from three
Closest comp: Pritchard
March expectation: Small extension in the $7.5-8 million per year range.
Current expectation: Same projection in Toronto.
No. 8: Franz Wagner, Orlando Magic
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Franz Wagner was a huge part of why the Magic climbed out of the lottery into the playoffs, but his poor outside shooting is a concern alongside 2022 No. 1 pick Paolo Banchero. Wagner is well-deserving of an extension, but Orlando may have been a bit generous.
2023-24 averages (72 games, 72 starts): 32.5 minutes, 19.7 points, 5.3 rebounds, 28.1 percent from three
Closest comps: Vassell, Bane (although both are far better three-point shooters than Wagner)
March expectation: Near-max, similar to Bane.
Extension: $224.2 million over five additional seasons, starting at $38.7 million; $243.5 million (42.5 million) or $269.1 million ($46.4 million) if qualified; 15 percent trade kicker
Grade: B-
Wagner's salary can climb to 27.5 percent of the cap or 30 percent, depending on how he qualifies. The "pro" argument is that if Wagner improves to an All-NBA player after the team's collective growth last season, the extra salary is a worthwhile incentive.
Max seems a bit much.
No. 7: Jonathan Kuminga, Golden State Warriors
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Jonathan Kuminga leaped forward in his third season. He's an aggressive scorer, and while he doesn't space the floor as a shooter, he needs to be guarded.
For his own development, Kuminga needs to play a more significant role on the Warriors, and that could come with Thompson moving on to Dallas. However, the Golden State may have different priorities (TBD).
2023-24 averages (74 games, 46 starts): 26.3 minutes, 16.1 points, 4.8 rebounds, 52.9 percent from the field
Closest comp: McDaniels
March expectation: Potential for an extension in the $20 million range.
Current expectation: Kuminga is believed to be looking for more than that projection. It's unclear where the Warriors stand. Other teams seem to prefer Johnson and Murphy over Kuminga—not to suggest that Kuminga doesn't also have fans around the league. It's one of the tougher calls on the list, but the dearth of cap room in 2025 suggests Kuminga should seek a viable compromise. An alternative may be a sign-and-trade next July if the Warriors aren't prepared to pay him.
No. 6: Josh Giddey, Chicago Bulls
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Over time, Josh Giddey's role with the Oklahoma City Thunder diminished. As the team advanced to the playoffs, he was benched as a non-shooter. The core issue was that Giddey is a point guard, but if Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has the ball, does Giddey do enough to help the Thunder win?
The subsequent trade to the Bulls answers that question, but Chicago desperately needs a shot-creating, ball-handling guard, and Giddey should be in a much better place.
2023-24 averages (80 games, 80 starts): 25.1 minutes, 12.3 points, 6.4 rebounds, 4.8 assists, 33.7 percent from three
Closest comp: McDaniels
March expectation: A compromise extension in Oklahoma City.
Current expectation: The writing was on the wall with the Thunder, especially as the playoffs unfolded. The Bulls should seek an extension, perhaps around $20 million a season. Giddey may prefer to wait to increase his value.
No. 5: Jalen Suggs, Orlando Magic
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That Jalen Suggs improved as a three-point shooter last year on relatively high attempts (5.1) is notable. He's already one of the better defenders at his position. He struggled to shoot in the postseason (29.2 percent from three) but played through a knee injury.
2023-24 averages (75 games, 75 starts): 27.0 minutes, 12.6 points, 2.7 assists, 39.7 percent from three
Closest comp: McDaniels (as a reliable defensive starter on a playoff team)
March expectation: Orlando would try to extend him below $20 million a season.
Current expectation: After generously paying Wagner, perhaps the Magic are more willing to pay $25 million annually.
No. 4: Scottie Barnes, Toronto Raptors
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Scottie Barnes was a first-time All-Star in 2023-24. The Toronto Raptors weren't very good (25 wins), but the team has the stirrings of a viable core with RJ Barrett, Quickley and Barnes.
2023-24 averages (60 games, 60 starts): 34.9 minutes, 19.9 points, 8.2 rebounds, 6.1 assists
Closest comps: Haliburton, Edwards
March expectation: Toronto will pay as much as possible.
Extension: $224.2 million over five additional seasons, starting at $38.7 million; $269.1 million ($46.4 million) if qualified; 15 percent trade kicker
Grade: B+
Teams usually argue in giving out max deals, "This is our guy; we need to take care of him." The Barnes extension makes sense from that perspective, though the Raptors weren't precisely dominant last season. Barnes' All-Star status and the Raptors' internal confidence that their team is heading on a positive trajectory make this deal on par with Haliburton and Edwards. Barnes still has to meet the higher criteria for a larger salary.
No. 3: Evan Mobley, Cleveland Cavaliers
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Evan Mobley was a key starter on a playoff team. Beyond his offensive game, Mobley has great potential as a versatile defender. The Cleveland Cavaliers got past the Magic before falling to the Celtics in the second round. The franchise seems committed to the Donovan Mitchell, Darius Garland, Jarrett Allen and Mobley core (perhaps with Max Strus as the fifth starter, long-term TBD).
2023-24 averages (50 games, 50 starts): 30.6 minutes, 15.7 points, 9.4 rebounds, 58.0 percent from the field
Closest comps: Haliburton, Edwards
March expectation: From the Vassell/McDaniels range to Bane's near max.
Extension: $224.2 million over five additional seasons, starting at $38.7 million; $243.5 million (42.5 million) or $269.1 million ($46.4 million) if qualified; 15 percent trade kicker
Grade: B-
Mobley's salary can climb to 27.5 percent of the cap or 30 percent, depending on how he qualifies. Is he a "max" player? That's subjective, and obviously, the Cavaliers believe so. Unless Mobley develops into the next Anthony Davis, it's a bit of an aggressive number.
No. 2: Jalen Green, Houston Rockets
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Green wasn't named an All-Star like Barnes, and his team didn't make the playoffs like Wagner's and Mobley's. But he's a potent scorer who contributed to the Rockets' resurgence, winning 41 games after an awful 22-win 2022-23 campaign.
2023-24 averages (82 games, 82 starts): 31.7 minutes, 19.6 points, 5.2 rebounds, 33.2 percent from three
Closest comp: Vassell/McDaniels to Bane
March expectation: One or both of Green and Şengün are extended long-term
Current expectation: If there's a team to play the waiting game to restricted free agency, it's the Rockets. Green may not have a lucrative offer sheet waiting for him next July. While he can point to the extensions signed by Nos. 1, 3 and 4, Houston may come in a little lower.
No. 1: Cade Cunningham, Detroit Pistons
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Cade Cunningham was the top overall pick in 2021. He's missed significant time with injuries. The Pistons have been consistently terrible, but he's a very nice player (even if his shooting ability is iffy).
2023-24 averages (62 games, 62 starts): 33.5 minutes, 22.7 points, 7.6 assists, 35.5 percent from three
Closest comp: Ball
March expectation: Cunningham would seek the max, but the Pistons may not be as generous as the Hornets were with Ball.
Extension: $224.2 million over five additional seasons, starting at $38.7 million; $269.1 million ($46.4 million) if qualified
Grade: C-
It's not that Cunningham isn't as good as the other three maxed-out players, but the Pistons may not be good enough to lock in one cornerstone piece. Is there a tangible danger that one of the few teams with cap space in 2025 would issue a max offer sheet to Cunningham? Just a minor one, and Detroit would still have had the right of first refusal. The Pistons are absorbing all the risk after a 14-win season.
*Email Eric Pincus at eric.pincus@gmail.com and follow him on X/Twitter @EricPincus.
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