2024 NFL Predictions: Dark-Horse Super Bowl Picks Certain to Surprise
Parity is one of the defining characteristics of the NFL.
It's part of the whole any-given-Sunday appeal.
While not every team holds legitimate Super Bowl hopes, there are always some surprise teams who surface in the race.
Now, it is surprising because it's unlikely, and the Super Bowl odds reflect as much. Still, there are clubs who can count championship bliss among their realistic range of possible outcomes who aren't among the heavyweight contenders cited by most fans and analysts.
We're here to spotlight three of those dark-horse teams by identifying three clubs who aren't among the top 10 teams in Super Bowl odds, courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook, but could have a surprise title run in them.
Atlanta Falcons (+3000)
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The Falcons are six full seasons removed from their last winning record (10-6 in 2017). It's possible, though, that a few offseason tweaks are all that was needed to dramatically change their outlook.
The biggest adjustment was a quarterback change from the underperforming (and now in Arizona) Desmond Ridder to the always productive Kirk Cousins. The veteran is coming off of a torn Achilles and approaching his 36th birthday, so there's a chance he isn't the same, but if he is, it could be all systems go for the Falcons.
New coach Raheem Morris, who orchestrated the Los Angeles Rams' championship defense in 2021, could send a spark into this team. This defense was already in decent shape, too, as last season it ranked 11th in yards allowed (321.1 per game). If Morris can work some magic, maybe that ranking lands closer to the top five.
What gives this group a championship upside, though, is this offense's potential. Prior to Cousins' arrival, the Falcons had been stockpiling offensive playmakers early in the draft, particularly tight end Kyle Pitts (No. 4 in 2021), wide receiver (No. 8 in 2022) and running back Bijan Robinson (No. 8 in 2023). If Cousins can bring out their best, this offense could be explosive enough to shock the world come playoff time.
Miami Dolphins (+2200)
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Miami had a chance to work some magic already last season. Some may have forgotten this—though Dolphins fans surely haven't—but the team had a shot at securing the No. 1 seed in the AFC in its Week 17 showdown at the Baltimore Ravens. The Dolphins, though, dropped that game, lost to the Buffalo Bills the following week and plummeted to the No. 6 seed. Derailed by some untimely injuries on the defensive side of the ball, Miami barely put up a fight in its 26-7 road loss to the Kansas City Chiefs in the Wild Card round.
That late-season skid didn't derail all of the progress this team made, though.
Tua Tagovailoa played 17 games for the first time and promptly quarterbacked Miami to the No. 1 spot in average yards (401.3 per game) and points (29.2). Tyreek Hill (119 receptions for 1,799 yards and 13 touchdowns) and Jaylen Waddle (72 for 1,014 and four) formed a two-headed monster at receiver. Raheem Mostert (NFL-best 18 rushing touchdowns) and De'Von Achane (eight rushing touchdowns, 7.8 yards per carry) did the same at running back.
Offense will clearly drive this club's success, and this attack could be more potent than ever after the offseason additions of receiver Odell Beckham Jr. and tight end Jonnu Smith. If Tagovailoa stays upright, and new defensive coordinator Anthony Weaver shores up that side of the ball, the Dolphins could be a problem—and a full-fledged Super Bowl contender.
Pittsburgh Steelers (+5000)
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Is it strange to tout a team as a Super Bowl contender without knowing their plans at quarterback? The answer is almost always yes, but this year's Steelers could be one of the exceptions.
Normally, quarterback questions stem from a lack of talent. That's not the issue in Pittsburgh. Veteran Russell Wilson has enjoyed gobs of success in this league. Former first-round pick Justin Fields has flashed high-end ability. Either could—and should—spark this offense in ways Kenny Pickett, Mason Rudolph and Mitch Trubisky never did.
If Pittsburgh coaxes strong quarterback play out of either Wilson or Fields, the Steelers could be in business.
This defense, led by pass-rushing gamebreaker T.J. Watt, allowed the sixth-fewest points last season (19.1). The offense reeled off the 13th-most rushing yards (118.2 per game). Receiver George Pickens produced his first 1,000-yard effort despite the shoddy quarterback play.
Things are looking up, and that's without accounting for the possibility of a Brandon Aiyuk addition. If Pittsburgh guessed right on even one of Wilson or Fields, the puzzle pieces could be in place for a championship run.
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