BS Meter: Buying or Selling Latest NFL Rumors and Buzz Ahead of 2024 OTAs
Growing up as a late-90s/early-2000s kid who was obsessed with dinosaurs, I've watched the Jurassic Park movies hundreds of times. Easily the best quote in the entire series comes from the original when Jeff Goldblum delivered a classic line: "That is one big pile of s***."
Goldblum's words have become an internet meme that is popular in the NFL world this time of year. Now that free agency has settled down and the draft is over, we've hit a bit of a lul in the football calendar that leads to some interesting 'news' stories.
Some have merit while others are just a bunch of BS. Here, we'll dive into a few of the rumors that have gained some traction lately and make a call to determine whether to buy or sell the piece of information.
Buy: Cowboys' Interest in Najee Harris
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Shortly after the Pittsburgh Steelers declined Najee Harris' fifth-year option, a rumor circulated that the Dallas Cowboys were targeting him in a trade.
Clearly, the Steelers don't see Harris in their future plans -- otherwise, they would have picked up the option to at least buy some time in contract negotiations and gain leverage. Also, Jaylen Warren emerged as a quality running back last fall with over 1,100 yards from scrimmage, and the team signed Cordarrelle Patterson in free agency.
So, it would make sense for Pittsburgh to deal the 2021 first-round pick for future assets and the team would get a little more than $2.4 million in cap relief while taking on only about $1.7 million in dead cap, according to Over The Cap. Meanwhile, Dallas could use another running back and has roughly $5.5 million of cap space available.
Granted, NFL Network's Jane Slater reported that the Cowboys dismissed the trade rumors as "click bait" and the team recently signed Ezekiel Elliot. However, that could be the front office trying to downplay their interest in Harris to avoid the price tag going up, and Elliot is past his prime.
The 28-year-old back (who turns 29 in July) hasn't logged over four yards per carry nor rushed for 1,000 yards since 2021 and is coming off a season where he posted career lows in just about every statistical category. While the hype around Harris has cooled off since his rookie season, he's still young and has been a 1,000-yard back in all three NFL seasons.
Additionally, Jerry Jones is in win-now mode and it feels like the Cowboys Super Bowl window is closing with looming contract decisions/extensions for key players like Dak Prescot, Ceedee Lamb and Micah Parsons. So, if the offense could use another runner to improve the offense, Jones would likely be willing to sacrifice some draft picks.
This feels like a 'where there's smoke, there's fire' situation with the Harris to Dallas trade rumors.
Sell: Broncos' Grading of Bo Nix
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Don't get it twisted. Clearly, the Denver Broncos and Sean Payton liked Bo Nix heading into the draft or they wouldn't have used the 12th overall pick on the Oregon quarterback. Also, he is a decent fit in Payton's offense.
However, since the draft has ended, there have been several reports indicating or directly stating that the Broncos were much higher on Nix than the rest of the league seemed to be.
The day after the first round, the team's head coach said he "was actively involved in trying to pretend we were moving forward" in the draft, via a video posted on X/Twitter from Amir Farrell of Broncos Avenue. However, the BS meter says that's a load of crap.
The Minnesota Vikings ended up trading with the New York Jets to take Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy at No. 10. Why would Payton want to risk getting his bluff called to drive up the price tag for a team that isn't even in the Broncos conference?
Also, McCarthy would be a good fit in the coach's system as well. Those comments felt like he was trying to get ahead of any potential leaks that the team was interested in and considering moving up for the Michigan quarterback.
Taking it a step further, Broncos insider Benjamin Allbright reported that Nix was the club's QB3 behind Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels. That would mean the team felt the former Duck was better than the three passers selected ahead of him, including Drake Maye who was B/R's -- and a few other outlets' -- top prospect at the position.
Additionally, Sports Illustrated's Albert Breer said Denver's front office listed the quarterbacks in "no particular order" on its draft board to "prevent any sort of bias in discussion and also, simply, to keep the brass' secret."
All of this feels like a big PR campaign to hype up the guy they drafted. Can't blame Payton and company for trying to inspire confidence in Nix, but it doesn't seem like the truth.
Buy: 49ers' Trade Demands for Brandon Aiyuk
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Trade rumors surrounding Brandon Aiyuk have been circulating all offseason as he's been in contract negotiations with the San Francisco 49ers and expressed some frustration with how the talks have been going.
Naturally, teams have been calling the 49ers to discuss a potential trade for the wideout, but San Francisco is asking for a steep price tag according to a report from ESPN's Jeremy Fowler.
"Multiple teams told me they had interest in Brandon Aiyuk, but they believed the 49ers wanted a first-round pick for him, with one comparing the situation to that of A.J. Brown, who went from Tennessee to Philadelphia in 2022 in exchange for the 18th pick," Fowler explained. "The Eagles then signed him to a four-year, $100 million contract. Trading for Aiyuk would have required a new deal and a premium pick."
While Brown has been more productive than Aiyuk, it's easy to buy that John Lynch is seeking similar compensation to what the Tennessee Titans got when they dealt Brown two years ago.
San Francisco has gotten very close to hoisting a Lombardi Trophy over the last several years and is coming off a Super Bowl appearance. Even if the 26-year-old isn't going to be around after this season, it's in the 49ers' best interests to keep the band together for one more championship push.
In other words, Lynch needing to be blown away with a trade offer to move on from Aiyuk this offseason is completely reasonable.
Sell: Sam Howell to Replace Geno Smith
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Geno Smith will turn 34 years old in October, is coming off a year where he regressed statistically and has an out in his contract where the Seattle Seahawks would save $25 million by cutting him next offseason, according to Over The Cap. So, some expected Seattle to target a quarterback in the draft to sit behind and eventually take over for Smith.
However, the historic run on passers last month prevented John Schneider from using a first-round pick to find the future of the franchise, and Schneider didn't use any of his eight selections on a QB. But, he did make a trade for the Washington Commanders' 2023 starter Sam Howell.
After the draft, self-proclaimed NFL Insider John Frascella posted on X, formerly known as Twitter, that Smith is 'on shakier ground than people realize' and suggested Howell could become the team's starter. Smith later responded with a post that the "report" was made up and BS.
To reinforce the incumbent starter's statement, Mike Macdonald denied that the Seahawks will have a quarterback competition this summer and stated that Smith is the starter while Howell is the backup, according to NFL Media's Tom Pelissero. Taking it a step further, Macdonald said both players know where they stand heading into training camp.
Additionally, the 2022 fifth-round pick proved he's more of a second-stringer last year by tossing as many touchdown passes as interceptions (21) before getting benched by the Commanders at the end of the season. Granted, Howell still started every game but because Jacoby Brissett suffered an injury in practice the week Brissett was supposed to start.
Smith may not be the Seahawks' long-term solution under center, but the third-year pro isn't going to be the one who takes his spot.
Buy: Kirk Cousins Left Because of Vikings' QB Plans
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While there were likely multiple factors that led to Kirk Cousins deciding to leave the Minnesota Vikings in free agency, Sports Illustrated's Albert Breer reported one reason for Cousin's decision was the Vikings' brass told him they were going to draft a quarterback.
Obviously, Minnesota wasn't bluffing as they traded up one spot to No. 10 overall and took Michigan's J.J. McCarthy. That part we know and isn't controversial, especially since McCarthy is viewed as more of a project that could benefit from playing behind a veteran for a year or two.
Where some plausible deniability could creep in is the team's draft plans had no impact on Cousin's decision. However, in what has become arguably the most perplexing and ironic draft picks made last month, the Atlanta Falcons ended up using the eighth selection overall on Michael Penix Jr. despite signing the 35-year-old to a four-year contract this offseason.
That decision reportedly irked the free-agent signing. "Mike McCartney, Cousins' agent, told ESPN's Pete Thamel that there was frustration and confusion coming from Cousins' camp because Atlanta didn't use its first-round pick to make the team better in 2024," ESPN's Marc Raimondi wrote.
"Instead, the Falcons used the selection on Cousins' apparent successor before he had played a down for the team."
While questions could arise if Atlanta's decision really got under the veteran's skin, it's hard to deny two different reports on similar topics. It seems pretty clear that Cousins has no interest in grooming a young quarterback to eventually replace him.
Buy: Drew Lock Could Be Giants' QB1
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Speaking of teams with quarterback controversies who were reportedly in the market for another option under center in the draft, the New York Giants were considered to be in the mix with the sixth overall pick. However, New York's brass opted for a pass-catcher instead of thrower, selecting LSU wide receiver Malik Nabers.
The Giants made six picks last month but none were quarterbacks, giving Daniel Jones a sense of security heading into the summer. However, to quote the legendary Lee Corso, "Not so fast my friend!"
Joe Schoen signed Drew Lock to a one-year deal in free agency after Lock showed some promise in his four appearances with the Seattle Seahawks last season. According to NFL Network's Daniel Jeremiah, that could lead to a quarterback competition in the Big Apple.
"I believe Drew Lock has a really good shot on winning that job [in New York]," Jeremiah said. "... They were comparing Daniel Jones and Drew Lock, emphasis on Drew Lock, to the QBs that were going to be there [at 6] and the line for them was Drake Maye."
Maye ended up going third overall to the New England Patriots, meaning the G-Men never had much of a chance at landing the rookie quarterback they were looking for.
Jeremiah's comments have some merit to them. As mentioned above, the former Broncos' second-round pick displayed growth in Seattle last season and has always had plenty of arm talent. Meanwhile, Jones is coming off a torn ACL and only had 909 passing yards and two touchdowns with six interceptions during his six starts last season.
So, while some may view that the door is shut and closed in this situation, the free-agent signing might be able to pick the lock.
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