College Football Predictions: Why Pac-12 Champion Will Be in 2013 BCS Title Game

The Pac-12 won’t be one of the deepest conferences in 2012, but the talent at the top of the conference will be truly hard to beat.  With Oregon only really losing LaMichael James, and USC returning star quarterback Matt Barkley and almost every other starter on the offensive side of the ball, Oregon and USC will be two of the hardest teams to beat in 2012.

Both teams ended their 2011 seasons on high notes, with Oregon beating the Big Ten Champion Wisconsin Badgers in the 2012 Rose Bowl, and the USC Trojans trouncing UCLA 50-0.  What both USC and Oregon showed in their 2011 finales is that they plan on being two of the most dominant teams not only in the Pac-12, but also in the entire BCS race.

The thing that USC and Oregon have in common going into 2012 isn’t the just fact that they both return a decent amount of starters or that they both have ultra-high-powered offenses.  Oregon and USC both have easy non-conference schedules, which will benefit them in their respective quests to play in the 2013 BCS title game.

Oregon starts off the season with games against Arkansas State, Fresno State and Tennessee Tech, with only Arkansas State giving the Ducks even a resemblance of a challenge.  The Ducks' only other legitimate challenge before their Nov. 3rd showdown with the USC Trojans is their Oct. 6th matchup with the Washington Huskies.

USC starts off the season with only two non-conference games against Hawaii and Syracuse—both easy wins—with their third non-conference game coming at the end of the season with their annual matchup with Notre Dame—which is in LA this year. 

Much like Oregon, the Trojans' toughest competition until their showdown with Oregon will come in their away matchup with the Washington Huskies.  Washington always seems to play USC close, even when the Huskies a clear underdog, as evidenced by their 2007 and 2009 wins over the Trojans.

The Nov. 3rd showdown between Oregon and USC will be both teams' first legitimate challenge, and will be a possible preview of the Pac-12 title game played on Nov 30.  That game will most likely be played in either the Coliseum in LA or Autzen Stadium in Oregon. 

If USC had not been banned from postseason play, Oregon and USC would have met in the 2011 Pac-12 championship game.  Luckily, the USC postseason ban has now been lifted.

The 2011 matchup between USC and Oregon, which ended with a USC overtime win thanks to a missed 37-yard field goal by Oregon’s kicker, was nothing short of epic.

After losing an early Pac-12 matchup to an over-hyped Arizona State squad, USC’s win against Oregon put on display just how much they had matured and come together throughout the entirety of the 2011 season. 

Oregon, on the other hand, bounced back after the USC loss with convincing wins against Oregon State and UCLA, and a truly impressive win against the Wisconsin Badgers in the 2012 Rose Bowl.

In their 2011 matchup, the main difference maker was the dominant quarterback play of USC's Matt Barkley, who threw for 323 yards and 4 touchdowns on 76.4 percent passing, and the less-than-dominant play by Oregon’s running back LaMichael James, who rushed for 79 yards and one touchdown on 20 carries.

Aside from those respective performances, the most impressive piece of last season’s matchup was Oregon’s shutting-down of USC’s offense late in the third quarter, after the Ducks had fallen behind 38-14.  Oregon’s ability to adapt to USC’s offense and ultimately shut them down was extremely impressive, but it was ultimately too little too late. 

In 2012, USC will return at least 15 starters on both sides of the ball, including their starting quarterback, leading rusher, two top receivers and all but one starter form the offensive line. 

Oregon will also return a decent amount of starters, with 11 on both sides of the ball including their starting quarterback, two of their top three running backs and two out of three starting wide receivers.

The main difference between Oregon and USC will be the depth they both bring back on their respective offensive and defensive lines.

We all know putting up points isn’t a problem for either team, but the real reason they do so is the play of their offensive lines.  USC will most likely return all but one starter on the offensive line, only losing tackle Matt Kalil to the NFL draft. 

Oregon, on the other hand, will be losing both tackles to graduation.  The positive for Oregon, though, is that their second- and third-string linemen got a decent amount of experience playing in blowout wins and in reserve for injured starters.

Both USC and Oregon will be graduating two seniors on their defensive lines, with Oregon graduating their defensive ends and USC graduating both of their starting tackles.  While both teams are losing two starters on their lines, Oregon will be losing production to the tune of 79 tackles, 7.5 sacks and 10 total tackles for loss, as compared to USC only losing 37 tackles, 1.5 sacks and five tackles for loss.

I know it’s hard to believe, but losing that much defensive production will ultimately be the difference maker when Oregon plays USC on Nov. 3rd in Los Angeles.

Lucky for Oregon, if they can manage to  run the gauntlet in a weak Pac-12 conference, they will be able to meet up with the Trojans in the Pac-12 championship game.  A Pac-12 championship game between the Ducks and Trojans, with both teams realistically coming in either undefeated or with one loss, will play a large part in deciding who either gets a spot in the 2013 Rose Bowl or the 2013 BCS title game.

There is just too much talent across the board in the SEC, with LSU, Alabama, Arkansas and South Carolina, for us to have another repeat of this year’s BCS title game.  The SEC will beat up on each other, with only one team—either South Carolina or Alabama—truly rising to the top in 2012. 

The Pac-12, on the other hand, will do nothing but glorify their two top teams, Oregon and USC, ultimately propelling one of the two to the 2013 BCS Championship Game.

2013 will feature a lot of great games and a lot of memorable matchups, the most memorable being both Oregon vs. USC showdowns—one in the regular season and one in the Pac-12 championship game.

That final game will ultimately decide one of the two spots in the 2013 BCS Championship Game.