5 2024 NFL Draft Picks That Are Inevitable After Free Agency
Predicting exactly how the first round of the 2024 NFL draft will play out is almost as difficult as picking a perfect March Madness bracket or winning the Mega Millions lottery jackpot.
Because of the potential for trades, the stark contrast in prospect grades and big boards from team to team and a myriad of other factors, even the most keyed-in draftniks will be lucky to hit on even a slight majority of their projections.
Despite the impossibility of such an endeavor, thousands and thousands of mock drafts will continue to be crafted leading up to the start of the event on April 27. Some of these will be wildly off the mark, while others will end up looking much closer to the final results.
It's worth noting that the task of coming up with an accurate mock draft has become slightly less daunting in recent weeks.
With the initial free-agency waves done, the results from that slew of player movement has made some roster holes clear. It's now much easier to tie certain prospects to teams that have a glaring need for their services.
With that in mind, here are five potential 2024 NFL draft picks that now appear almost inevitable.
Arizona Cardinals Select Marvin Harrison Jr.
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Few teams, if any, will be entering the draft in a better spot than the Arizona Cardinals.
They hold the No. 4 overall pick in a draft in which quarterbacks—a position the Cardinals don't particularly need due to the presence of Kyler Murray—are projected to be selected with each of the first three picks.
Denver Broncos head coach Sean Payton may have summed up Arizona's position best when he told reporters: "It's good to be [Cardinals general manager] Monti [Ossenfort] right now."
While that comment was spurred by Payton's musing on the returns Arizona could get by trading down, Ossenfort also has the luxury to stand pat and grab the best prospect on the board when the Cardinals are on the clock.
That would almost certainly be Marvin Harrison Jr., the standout Ohio State receiver who is considered to be the No. 1 overall prospect in the 2024 class by the Bleacher Report Scouting Department.
After the Cardinals largely failed to reinforce their depleted receiving corps in free agency, aside from a minor signing of veteran journeyman Chris Moore, it's a perfect pairing.
Harrison has had an incredible run with the Buckeyes over the last two seasons. During that span, the 6'3", 202-pound wideout racked up an eye-popping 2,474 yards and 28 touchdowns on 144 receptions.
Although he no-showed his scheduled media session and only took measurements at the scouting combine, Harrison's body of work speaks for itself. He's a game-changing talent and the best receiver in a deep class.
If there weren't so many quality QB prospects available in a year when so many clubs need a franchise passer, Harrison could have well become the first receiver taken No. 1 overall since Keyshawn Johnson in 1996.
His abilities will make it difficult for the Cardinals to drop down on draft night.
Albert Breer of Sports Illustrated believes Arizona won't let the Ohio State star slip past at No. 4, while Paris Johnson Jr.—a current Cardinals wideout and former teammate of Harrison at Ohio State—said the feeling is mutual between Harrison and the organization.
Expect that marriage to become official when the Cardinals opt not to move down and instead make the sensible choice to tap Harrison with their first-round choice.
Atlanta Falcons Select Jared Verse
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The Atlanta Falcons made the biggest splash of the offseason when they came to terms with Kirk Cousins on a blockbuster four-year, $180 million contract.
The signing gives the franchise a truly elite quarterback for the first time since Matt Ryan's MVP campaign in 2016 and someone who can unlock the litany of highly drafted skill-position talent the team has collected over the past few seasons.
With that massive hole under center now filled and the offense set to explode, the Falcons no longer need to concern themselves with acquiring a QB prospect early in the 2024 draft. They can now take the best defensive prospect available in Round 1.
It's likely that choice will be Jared Verse, the talented edge-rusher who was projected to go relatively early in last year's draft before electing to return to Florida State for one more collegiate season.
That decision should pay off handsomely for the 23-year-old, who went from a fringe first-round prospect in a deep edge rushing class to a near-lock to be taken in the top 10 after posting a second consecutive nine-sack campaign.
The 6'4", 254-pounder rates as the top edge and No. 9 overall prospect in this class, according to the Bleacher Report Scouting Department.
Possessing all the tools required to make a seamless transition to the NFL, Verse should emerge as an impact rookie for the Falcons if he falls to them on draft night.
He fills a major need for the team, and Atlanta's brass should have no qualms addressing its defense on Day 1, especially after using top-10 picks in each of the last three drafts on offensive prospects.
Given the team recorded a middling 42 sacks last year and didn't sign any impact edge-rushers in free agency, adding players who can help disrupt in the backfield should be Atlanta's main priority.
No one projects to do that at a higher level than Verse, who is close to a shoo-in to be selected if he's still available when the Falcons are on the clock.
Chicago Bears Select Caleb Williams
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The Chicago Bears entered the 2024 offseason with a quarterback conundrum on their hands for the second consecutive year.
Incumbent starter Justin Fields had another polarizing campaign but finished quite strongly, an issue that left the Bears—armed with the No. 1 pick yet again—stuck between staying the course or forging a new path.
Chicago didn't wait long to make its choice. By trading Fields to the Pittsburgh Steelers for a meager return of just a conditional fifth-round pick—a move that general manager Ryan Poles said he made to give the quarterback a strong chance at competing for a starting gig—the Bears signaled that they are going to make a QB prospect their first-round draft choice for the third time since 2017.
While both Fields and Mitchell Trubisky—Chicago's most recent first-round passers—failed to pan out, the team could be on the verge of striking gold with Caleb Williams, the consensus No. 1 overall pick in 2024.
The 22-year-old had a stellar career at USC, throwing for nearly 10,000 yards and 93 touchdowns in just two seasons in addition to taking home the 2022 Heisman Trophy. He may not be the top-rated signal-caller on the B/R Scouting Department's big board, but his 9.2 draft grade is just 0.1 points below Drake Maye and makes him the No. 4 overall prospect available.
Although the Chicago front office hasn't confirmed the selection, all signs point toward Williams heading to the Windy City next month.
According to The Athletic's Kevin Fishbain and Adam Jahs, Poles spoke about how he had a hard time finding anyone to say anything negative about the blue-chip prospect and noted that many evaluators feel Williams has the potential to "reach the highest limits" in the pros.
Expect the choice to be sealed shortly after Williams visits Halas Hall in early April. He'll go through a medical evaluation at that time and will almost certainly be in line to become the first name called when the draft begins on April 25.
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New England Patriots Select Drake Maye
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The New England Patriots are on the verge of a complete reset.
The rebuilding endeavor began when they parted ways with head coach Bill Belichick following 24 seasons at the helm and continued when Mac Jones—the quarterback tapped to follow in Tom Brady's footsteps in the first round of the 2021 draft—was dealt to the Jacksonville Jaguars after regressing in each of the last two seasons.
While New England still has Bailey Zappe, who replaced Jones for eight starts over the last two years, under contract and came to terms on a one-year, $8 million with veteran journeyman Jacoby Brissett, it's apparent that new head coach Jerod Mayo is poised to make a quarterback his regime's first draft selection.
In stark contrast to his predecessor's tight-lipped nature, Mayo has been surprisingly candid about the franchise's draft plans.
Mayo recently spoke at length about the three passers projected to be the first names off the board next month. He gave the impression that he felt Caleb Williams wouldn't be available when New England is on the clock and was relatively quiet on Jayden Daniels, a player who initially seemed to be a realistic target for the Pats, but he heaped praise on Drake Maye.
Maye, the No. 3 overall prospect and No. 1 quarterback on the B/R Scouting Department's big board, has been linked to both New England and the Washington Commanders. Although he was largely being mocked within the first two picks early in the draft process, rumors began to swirl at the scouting combine that the Commanders are heavily considering Daniels at No. 2 overall.
Mayo believes the North Carolina product has "no ceiling" on his upside and highlighted his leadership capability as one of the main reasons New England would be thrilled to land him.
Given the team's intense need for a franchise passer and Maye's incredible arm, athleticism and intangibles, this would be a no-brainer for the Patriots should the Commanders elect to go with Daniels on draft night.
New York Jets Select Brock Bowers
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The New York Jets know their championship window won't remain open much longer.
After a lost 2023 season effectively ended when Aaron Rodgers ruptured his Achilles just four plays into the opening game, they can't afford to squander the limited time they have left with a future Hall of Famer under center.
That desperation should lead the Jets to select Brock Bowers, the top-tier Georgia tight end who fills one of the biggest voids on the roster.
The 21-year-old is widely regarded as a can't-miss prospect at a position that is notoriously difficult for collegiate players to make a successful transition to the pros at.
He's easily the top tight end on the B/R Scouting Department's latest big board—Ohio State's Cade Stover is a distant second—and ranks behind only Marvin Harrison Jr. in terms of overall draft grade this year.
It's hardly a shock that Bowers is rated so highly. During his three seasons in Athens, he amassed 2,538 yards and 26 touchdowns on 175 receptions while establishing himself as a key contributor for two national title teams.
The 6'3", 243-pounder has the ability to not only line up as a tight end, but he can also be utilized in the backfield, out wide and anywhere else an offensive coordinator might scheme up to create mismatches.
That kind of versatility, along with being extremely pro-ready, makes him the perfect choice for a team ready to win now like the Jets.
While the squad also had some major needs along the offensive line, the New York front office did well addressing that area by signing both Tyron Smith and John Simpson and trading for Morgan Moses at the onset of the new league year.
That leaves tight end as the main question mark left on this roster, one that Bowers is perfectly suited to patch up. If the Georgia product is still available at No. 10, the Jets would be foolish not to snap him up.
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