5 NFL Draft Picks That Are Inevitable After 2023 Free Agency

The NFL draft remains one of the most chaotic and unpredictable events on the sports calendar, but sometimes, teams tip their hand in free agency.

Unlike the NBA, the NFL's draft takes place after the bulk of free agency has been completed. The timeline allows teams to fill in immediate needs with free agency and have a more complete understanding of the roster deficiencies they have going into the draft.

Of course, the approach of filling short- and long-term needs through the draft will vary from franchise to franchise. There's still a lot to glean from who teams have targeted and signed when figuring out what their approach will be in the draft.

Here, we'll take a look at five picks in the draft that feel inevitable with the way free agency has played out. Each of these fills a serious gap on the roster that has not adequately been addressed through free agency. Team fit and draft position were also considered.

Indianapolis Colts Select QB Anthony Richardson

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INDIANAPOLIS, INDIANA - MARCH 04: Quarterback Anthony Richardson of Florida participates in a drill during the NFL Combine at Lucas Oil Stadium on March 04, 2023 in Indianapolis, Indiana. (Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images)

This one should have been a heavily favored selection heading into free agency, but the Colts' moves so far nearly confirm they will be taking a quarterback.

Not only did they cut Matt Ryan, officially ending that era, but they signed Gardner Minshew to a one-year, $3.5 million contract. That's not starter money. That's backup to a young, developing quarterback money.

Connecting the dots, Anthony Richardson is the best guess as to who that quarterback will be. With the Panthers trading all the way up to No. 1 from No. 9, they are likely to target either C.J. Stroud or Bryce Young. The Texans would then be in line to take whomever the Panthers pass on, giving the Cardinals their choice of non-quarterback prospects at No. 3 and leaving the Colts to choose between Anthony Richardson and Will Levis.

After getting the most out of Jalen Hurts last year, new Colts head coach Shane Steichen is the right person to help Richardson transition to the NFL. You see glimpses of everything you'd hope to see out of Richardson's tape. He can manage the pocket, make all the throws and create outside of structure.

The Colts stayed away from the Derek Carr and Jimmy Garoppolo markets. They appear to be all-in on drafting a quarterback of the future early.

Las Vegas Raiders Select DT Jalen Carter

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INGLEWOOD, CA - JANUARY 9: Jalen Carter #88 of the Georgia Bulldogs celebrates a big defensive play during a game between Texas Christian Horned Frogs and Georgia Bulldogs at SoFi Stadium on January 9, 2023 in Inglewood, California. (Photo by Steve Limentani/ISI Photos/Getty Images)

The Las Vegas Raiders signing Jimmy Garoppolo shouldn't preclude them from drafting a quarterback. It should keep them from making a trade up in the draft to get one, though.

The upside of signing Garoppolo to a three-year, $72.8 million contract is that it buys some time to find the signal-caller of the future. It's too much money to be considered a pure bridge quarterback but not enough that they can't move on from him if they find a good passer on a rookie deal.

Picking at No. 7, there's a good chance that opportunity isn't coming this time around. However, the chance to pick Jalen Carter has become a whole lot more realistic.

Carter's draft stock has taken a hit since the end of the college football season. The Georgia product reached a plea deal regarding the misdemeanor charges of racing and reckless driving in connection with a fatal crash, receiving 12 months probation, a fine, community service and an order to participate in a defensive driving course.

He also showed up to his pro day nine pounds heavier than he was at the combine and reportedly struggled with conditioning.

That could be enough for the Cardinals to choose Will Anderson Jr. over him at No. 3. The Seattle Seahawks just signed Dre'Mont Jones and Jarran Reed, which would signal that Carter isn't on their radar.

That might make the Raiders—whose biggest defensive addition thus far has been safety Marcus Epps—the most likely team to stop Carter's draft slide after being a contender to be the No. 1 pick.

Atlanta Falcons Select CB Devon Witherspoon

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ANN ARBOR, MI - NOVEMBER 19: Illinois Fighting Illini defensive back Devon Witherspoon (31) reacts during a college football game against the Michigan Wolverines on November 19, 2022 at Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor, Michigan. (Photo by Joe Robbins/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

The Atlanta Falcons have two clear needs as we approach the draft: the pass rush and the secondary.

They were 31st in sacks, 32nd in pressure percentage and 26th in team pass rush win rate despite Grady Jarrett being a top-10 interior pass rusher.

They've at least made some moves to address their ability to get after the quarterback. Signing David Onyemata and Kaden Elliss while re-signing Lorenzo Carter won't fix the issue, but they at least move the needle.

In the secondary, the Falcons signed Jessie Bates III but have not addressed the cornerback position.

That's why it's a near-virtual lock the Falcons are eyeing cornerbacks with the No. 8 overall pick. Devon Witherspoon would make a lot of sense. The Illinois product was ranked as the No. 4 corner on our big board but was also deemed the best in man coverage.

New defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen will like that. The Saints were in man at the second-highest rate in the league last season under his supervision, per The 33rd Team, and Nielsen will likely want to replicate that now that he's in Atlanta. Witherspoon would pair with A.J. Terrell to give them a foundational pair of cornerbacks for years to come.

The free-agent market has a whole list of productive pass-rushers who will likely settle for one-year prove-it deals like Jadeveon Clowney, Yannick Ngakoue and Frank Clark, but the chance to get a similar corner doesn't really exist.

Tennessee Titans Select WR Quentin Johnston

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TCU wide receiver Quentin Johnston runs a drill at the NFL football scouting combine in Indianapolis, Saturday, March 4, 2023. (AP Photo/Michael Conroy)

Before free agency, it was pretty easy to slot an offensive lineman in at No. 11 to the Tennessee Titans on any mock draft.

The team released Taylor Lewan and Ben Jones, while Nate Davis was slated to be a free agent. For a team that didn't have a great offensive line to start with last season, it was a bigger hole than any they opened for Derrick Henry last season.

But the Titans have already made some big moves to address the need. They signed Andre Dillard to a three-year, $29 million contract, which gives them an option at left tackle, and Daniel Brunskill came to Tennessee on a two-year deal.

Brunskill played multiple spots in his time with San Francisco and could easily replace Davis, who left to join the Chicago Bears, at right guard. Either way, the Titans went out and got two new starters up front.

All they've done in the receiving corps is let Robert Woods go. The move created $12 million in cap space, but that wasn't reinvested in the receiver room.

Right now, Treylon Burks is the team's leading returning wide receiver, with 444 yards in his rookie season. He may eventually live up to his Round 1 capital from last year's draft, but the Titans can't go into next season without some competition for that role.

Quentin Johnston is the top receiver on the B/R big board and the No. 10 prospect overall. He's a big-bodied downfield threat that could add much-needed pop to the Titans passing game.

Pittsburgh Steelers Select OT Broderick Jones

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INGLEWOOD, CALIFORNIA - JANUARY 09: Broderick Jones #59 of the Georgia Bulldogs celebrates after a touchdown in the second quarter against the TCU Horned Frogs in the College Football Playoff National Championship game at SoFi Stadium on January 09, 2023 in Inglewood, California. (Photo by Steph Chambers/Getty Images)

The Pittsburgh Steelers aren't typically big spenders on outside free-agent options, so it says a lot when they address a need from the outside.

Their biggest holes heading into free agency included left tackle, linebacker and cornerback. The Steelers lost both Devin Bush and Robert Spillane on the market and released Myles Jack but inked Cole Holcomb and Elandon Roberts. Patrick Peterson was signed to make up for the loss of Cameron Sutton.

They even upgraded the right guard spot by signing Isaac Seumalo from the Philadelphia Eagles.

That leaves tackle as the one need that has been conspicuously unaddressed.

Dan Moore Jr. has manned the spot for the last two seasons, logging over 1,000 snaps each year but surrendering 14 sacks while committing 15 penalties. He earned a PFF grade of 62.4 last season, which ranked 57th of 81 tackles graded by their analysts.

It's hard to believe the plan is to keep rolling with Moore at such an important position with Kenny Pickett at quarterback.

Broderick Jones would be a great fit at No. 17. He's 17th overall on the B/R big board and gives them a blue-chip prospect to mold into an anchor of the offensive line.

Jones is a tremendous athlete and didn't allow a sack last year at Georgia. The Steelers' decision to not get into the free-agent market at left tackle will make sense if they target him or another left tackle on draft day.