How 2024 NFL Free-Agency Moves Impact J.J. McCarthy's NFL Draft Landing Spots
NFL free agency started a chain reaction at quarterback, and the fallout has yet to conclude. The process will culminate at this year's NFL draft, where multiple teams should be scrambling to land Michigan's J.J. McCarthy.
USC's Caleb Williams, North Carolina's Drake Maye and LSU's Jayden Daniels are widely expected to come off the board with the first three selections (in some order) to the Chicago Bears, Washington Commanders and New England Patriots. That should make McCarthy the next-most enticing option for teams still searching for a new starting quarterback.
While McCarthy isn't on the same tier as Williams, Maye and Daniels, his potential is tantalizing. Unlike Oregon's Bo Nix and Washington's Michael Penix Jr., both of whom are three years older than McCarthy, the national championship-winning quarterback has the traits and right mentality to work his way into the top 10 for any team willing to pay the price.
The Atlanta Falcons took one of McCarthy's primary suitors off the board when they signed Kirk Cousins. They're now one of three teams that should be interested in moving off their first-round pick, while three other teams that weren't able to acquire a starting-caliber veteran signal-caller in free agency could make the leap of faith for McCarthy.
That could create a cascading effect toward the top of the draft, with multiple teams either willing to trade up or down in the first round.
Trade Up: Minnesota Vikings
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The Minnesota Vikings didn't want Kirk Cousins to leave. They didn't want to pay him what the market demanded, either.
According to The Athletic's Dianna Russini and Alec Lewis, the Vikings "made Kirk Cousins an offer for more than one year that included guaranteed money in year two. Ultimately, the Falcons' offer exceeded how far Minnesota was willing to go."
So, they played their opening gambit for what could very well turn into their next starting quarterback.
Initially, the Vikings stated that they want to maintain flexibility, which they did with the signing of quarterback Sam Darnold to a one-year, $10 million contract. Darnold could start, serve as a backup or play as a bridge option until someone else is ready.
But the plan seems obvious now: The Vikings plan to trade up for a quarterback.
Minnesota traded this year's 42nd and 188th overall picks, plus a 2025 second-round selection, to the Houston Texans for this year's 23rd and 232nd picks on Friday, according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport. The extra first-rounder is key, because the Vikings now own the 11th and 23rd picks. They could trade up to get into the top 10 and potentially select McCarthy or whichever quarterback remains available.
Whomever they select will be crucial to the franchise's long-term stability.
While the Vikings won only one playoff game during Cousins' six seasons in purple and yellow, he did provide credibility. Minnesota is now missing a key component that will be vital during the ongoing contract negotiations with superstar wide receiver Jordan Jefferson, who is about to enter the last season of his rookie deal.
An immediate solution through the draft is in the franchise's best interests, so the rookie quarterback can grow with the 24-year-old Jefferson over time.
The Vikings were already sitting in front of the Denver Broncos and Las Vegas Raiders in the current draft order. Their trade with the Texans on Friday makes them the best-positioned among the quarterback-starved teams to come away with McCarthy.
Trade Down: New York Giants
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With the No. 6 overall pick, the New York Giants are currently sandwiched between the Los Angeles Chargers and Tennessee Titans in the draft order. Both the Chargers and Titans are looking for offensive line help, which they can easily grab at their current spots.
The Giants, meanwhile, are shifting gears this offseason.
Running back Saquon Barkley, safety Xavier McKinney, wide receiver Sterling Shepard, guard Shane Lemieux and cornerback Adoree' Jackson have either signed with other teams or remain free agents. All five were starters for Big Blue at one point or another and had been with the team for multiple years.
General manager Joe Schoen seems to have a stronger concentration on premium positions, namely upgrading the offensive line and pass rush. The team already did so by signing blockers Jon Runyan and Jermaine Eluemunor, as well as making the biggest trade of the offseason (so far) with the acquisition of edge-rusher Brian Burns.
The Giants sent second- and fifth-round picks to the Carolina Panthers for Burns, which depleted their draft capital. They did own a pair of second-round picks thanks to last year's Leonard Williams trade to the Seattle Seahawks, but they currently have only six total picks.
Trading down with a quarterback-needy team would allow the Giants to add more draft picks—likely recouping the a second-round selection at a minimum—and keep them in a position to select a wide receiver, cornerback or defensive lineman just outside of the top 10.
A trade-down might force the Giants to pass on the opportunity to select Washington wideout Rome Odunze or LSU receiver Malik Nabers. But the incoming wideout crop is deep, particularly on Day 2, and the Giants still could potentially land the class' top-rated cornerback or defensive tackle even after trading down.
Trade Up: Denver Broncos
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The Denver Broncos decided it was better to pay for former starting quarterback Russell Wilson to go away rather than trying to make it work for another season.
By releasing Wilson with a post-June 1 designation, the Broncos will eat a $53 million dead money hit for him in 2024 and $32 million in 2025. As a result, they aren't well-positioned to spend big on a quarterback this offseason or next. Their main options are to stand pat and move forward with Jarrett Stidham or make a play for a rookie quarterback.
The Broncos don't have a second-round selection thanks to the Sean Payton "trade," so it might be tough for them to land Oregon's Bo Nix or Washington's Michael Penix Jr. later in the draft. Besides, they'd be settling with either one.
To join the J.J. McCarthy sweepstakes, the Broncos likely must leapfrog the Minnesota Vikings, who currently sit one pick ahead of them at No. 11. How far the Broncos must go will determine how much they'll have to give up. If it's as far as sixth overall, a future first-round selection is likely in play. A smaller jump may entail a few middle-round picks this year plus next year's second-round pick.
The Broncos should want to trade up for McCarthy. But based on their overall lack of draft assets, they may be forced to trade down, add a few picks and take one of Nix or Penix as a way to hedge at the game's most important position.
Whatever the case, they shouldn't view Stidham as the solution.
Trade Down: Atlanta Falcons
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The Atlanta Falcons made the biggest splash in free agency when they lured Kirk Cousins away from the Minnesota Vikings with a four-year, $180 million contract.
Instead of spending the No. 8 overall pick on a quarterback this year, the Falcons are now prepared to take control of the AFC South. With back-to-back-to-back top-10 picks in tight end Kyle Pitts, wide receiver Drake London and running back Bijan Robinson already in place, Cousins was the missing piece.
The 12-year veteran is an ideal distributor to work within Zac Robinson's offense. The new Falcons offensive coordinator came from the same coaching tree as Cousins' previous play-caller, Vikings head coach Kevin O'Connell.
The Falcons don't necessarily need to trade down in the first round. They could stand pat and land a premium player at No. 8. But general manager Terry Fontenot could have significant leverage over teams searching for a quarterback prospect.
After the additions of Cousins, tight end Charlie Woerner and wide receivers Darnell Mooney and Rondale Moore, the Falcons offense is basically complete. Atlanta's biggest remaining needs are at cornerback and defensive line. The draft value of those two position groups sit better just outside of the overall top 10.
The Falcons could realistically come out of this offseason with a franchise quarterback, extra draft picks (possibly even a future first-rounder) and the top prospect at cornerback, edge-rusher or defensive tackle.
Trade Up: Las Vegas Raiders
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The Las Vegas Raiders currently own the 13th overall pick. They sit directly behind the Minnesota Vikings and Denver Broncos, both of whom we'll expand on more later.
The Raiders' starting quarterback options at the moment are Gardner Minshew, whom they signed to a two-year, $25 million contract in free agency, and 2023 fourth-round pick Aidan O'Connell.
O'Connell didn't show enough as a rookie to secure the job, while Minshew is being paid like a high-end backup/bridge quarterback. Neither should prevent the Raiders from making a move for a highly regarded prospect, and standing pat should not be an option for them.
At No. 13, the Raiders could also address cornerback or offensive line. They still need help at both positions. A season with Minshew leading the way is not ideal, though. Just ask the 2023 Indianapolis Colts.
Yes, the Colts nearly won the AFC South, and Minshew made the Pro Bowl as an alternate. But his play regularly vacillated somewhere between doing just enough to keep the team's head above water and plunging into the abyss at the worst possible time.
Minshew is what he is. He's a quality backup who can start for a stretch and keep a team competitive. However, he is not a long-term starter who's capable of carrying an offense or elevating the play of those around him.
Making a play for McCarthy shouldn't be cost-prohibitive for the Raiders. A move up to somewhere between No. 6 and 10 might cost them a future first-round pick. That tends to be the going price whenever a quarterback premium is added to trade discussions.
However, next year's quarterback crop isn't viewed as good, and the Raiders expect to build upon their late-season success under then-interim head coach Antonio Pierce. They can't afford to keep falling further behind in the division, or they'll risk having the Denver Broncos make the exact move for McCarthy that they should have made.
Trade Down: New York Jets
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If the New York Giants or Atlanta Falcons choose not to trade down, the New York Jets will be in prime position to do so.
With the 10th overall pick, the Jets sit directly in front of Minnesota Vikings, Denver Broncos and Las Vegas Raiders. The Broncos or Raiders could (and should) jockey to jump ahead of the Vikings to ensure they get a quarterback. Obviously, Gang Green is all-in with Aaron Rodgers for another season, as long as the 40-year-old doesn't enter the political sphere.
The Jets have done a nice job addressing multiple needs this offseason.
The rebuilding of the much-maligned offensive line began with the free-agent signing of guard John Simpson and trade for veteran right tackle Morgan Moses. They still need another offensive tackle, but they can take advantage of one of the strongest tackle classes in recent memory. They can do so at No. 10 or a few picks down the pipeline on someone like Oregon State's Taliese Fuaga or Oklahoma's Tyler Guyton.
The Jets could also look to address wide receiver later, with a strong crop all the way into third-round range. Safety is another position that can they can add outside of the opening round. Maybe general manager Joe Douglas wants to reinvest in another edge-rusher after Bryce Huff signed with the Philadelphia Eagles. They can do all of that without staying in the 10th spot in the draft.
The Jets might not get an opportunity to trade down, though. Other teams could make a similar deal before the Jets are even on the board. But they'll be the last line to make a deal if one isn't struck earlier. Adding an extra second-round pick after trading their own as part of the Rodgers deal certainly couldn't hurt.
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