Each MLB Team's Biggest Bust Potential in 2024
In baseball, as in all things, there's nothing wrong with getting one's hopes up. So long, of course, as one also knows on some level that disappointment could follow.
It is with this warning in mind that we're about to discuss the player with the most bust potential on each MLB team heading into the 2024 season.
There was no one-size-fits-all approach in the selection process. Whether it's because of their name, contract status or reputation, all the players here are hyped in some way or another and are set to be on their team's Opening Day roster.
And while all have bust potential, the how, why and general extent of it all varies. Some of these guys have true disaster potential, while others are solid bets to merely fall short of expectations. It felt weird to lump them together, but sometimes that's how it is.
We'll go one team at a time in alphabetical order by city.
Arizona Diamondbacks: LHP Eduardo Rodriguez
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Prior to signing Eduardo Rodriguez, the Diamondbacks had only ever inked one left-hander to a contract worth at least $80 million: Madison Bumgarner.
Granted, such a blatant conjuring of such a bad omen may not be warranted. Rodriguez merely needs to function as a No. 3 starter for the National League champions, and he'll do so if he lives up to a track record marked by an above average 112 ERA+.
Yet Rodriguez has also had his ups and downs, and while the 3.30 ERA he posted last year was nice, it may have been too good to be true. As such, his 9.00 ERA for the spring may be an early warning that his luck pendulum is about to swing back the other way.
Atlanta: LF Jarred Kelenic
2 of 30
This spot should arguably belong to Chris Sale, but I'm assuming most people are clear-eyed about where his career is at after four straight injury-marred seasons.
Jarred Kelenic, meanwhile, came into camp facing pressure to at least replace what Atlanta got from Eddie Rosario last year, if not improve on it. But things have already taken a turn with the signing of Adam Duvall, who'll platoon with Kelenic in left field.
Perhaps the idea is to light a fire under Kelenic, formerly an elite prospect who's still only 24. But if his dismal .223 OPS for the spring is any indication, the idea behind the Duvall signing could be to preemptively prepare for Kelenic falling out of favor.
Baltimore Orioles: SS/2B Jackson Holliday
3 of 30
Jackson Holliday is not here because he's actually a hack who's masquerading as one of the sport's top prospects.
Indeed, there are good reasons why he's the top prospect in baseball right now. He's the son of a former seven-time All-Star who hasn't stopped putting up numbers since he turned pro in 2022, and he projects as an elite offensive shortstop.
Still, it's important to be cognizant of how Holliday only turned 20 on Dec. 4 and how even No. 1 prospects can struggle to hit the ground running. Rather than in Gunnar Henderson's, he might follow in Bobby Witt Jr.'s footsteps as a rookie.
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Boston Red Sox: RHP Brayan Bello
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It's not by way of the stakes of his newly signed contract extension that Brayan Bello is here. For a team like the Red Sox, $55 million over six years is nothing.
The issue here instead relates to hope. Because with Sale gone and Lucas Giolito expected to miss the 2024 season after elbow surgery, the 24-year-old might represent the only hope Boston has of having a No. 1 starter this year.
Though Bello has teased that kind of potential at times in his first two seasons, overall he has only a 4.37 ERA and a middling rate of 7.9 strikeouts per nine innings. Barring any major advancements, he might only be a mid-rotation guy.
Chicago Cubs: LHP Shōta Imanaga
5 of 30
This spot perhaps should have gone to Cody Bellinger, but getting him back on a three-year, $80 million deal should work out just fine for the Cubs.
To be sure, they got Shōta Imanaga for about half of what he was expected to sign for. As he had a sub-3.00 ERA in Japan, it looked like a steal even at the time. And maybe even more so now, as he's whiffed 19 of the 41 batters he's faced this spring.
However, the lefty comes with pre-packaged concerns about his ability to stifle loud contact. Before his dominant turn against the Oakland Athletics on Thursday, that played out as he allowed seven hits and two homers over 5.1 innings in his first two spring starts.
Chicago White Sox: CF Luis Robert Jr.
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Why Luis Robert Jr., you ask? By default, mostly.
With Dylan Cease now with San Diego, Robert is probably the only White Sox player who anyone has real expectations for in 2024. And he certainly deserves that kind of attention after going off for 38 home runs and 20 stolen bases last season.
However, two things could undermine the 26-year-old's star power.
One is an injury history colored by him having been sidelined for about half of Chicago's games across 2021 and 2022. Another is his propensity to swing and miss, as seen in his 10th-percentile whiff rate from last season.
Cincinnati Reds: SS Elly De La Cruz
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It's OK to want Elly De La Cruz to have a huge year in 2024. And the odds of it happening are pretty good.
To say the 22-year-old is merely talented would be a kindness to merely talented people. He's incredibly talented, particularly in the power and speed departments.
He's also having a huge spring, with numbers that include a .997 OPS and 19 total bases in 12 games.
It's also important to remember, though, De La Cruz hit just .191 in the second half of 2023 and he ended up striking out in 33.7 percent of his plate appearances.
It was clear then that his talent needed refinement, and that should still be the case until further notice.
Cleveland Guardians: 1B Kyle Manzardo
8 of 30
The Guardians went 76-86 last year and then spent the offseason doing a whole lot of nothing. As such, "hype" isn't a word they're being associated with right now.
There's nonetheless some hope being placed in Kyle Manzardo, who's ticketed to play first base on a regular basis this season. He's rated as the league's No. 59 prospect by MLB.com, and he's played the part well enough this spring as he's posted a .934 OPS.
What the 23-year-old may not have, though, is power worthy of an everyday first base gig. And after hitting only 124 homers as a team in 2023, the Guardians sorely need that kind of power.
Colorado Rockies: 1B Kris Bryant
9 of 30
The Rockies might just be the worst team in MLB heading into 2024, and whether they have even one true star right now is debatable.
In Kris Bryant, however, they do have a $182 million player who might be on the verge of a comeback. He says he's healthy after back-to-back lost years, and he's at least showed off some of his old power in clubbing three homers and slugging .600 this spring.
It's still hard to take the bait, though. Even setting aside that he's five years removed from his last season as a proper star, there's no guarantee he will be any healthier at 32 than he was at 30 or 31.
Detroit Tigers: 1B Spencer Torkelson
10 of 30
Spencer Torkelson has already lived the bust life once, as he emerged from being the No. 1 pick in 2020 and a minor league star in 2021 to being a disappointment as a rookie in 2022.
In 2023, though, the 24-year-old seemed to figure things out. And more so as the year went along, as he wrapped up the proceedings by posting an .816 OPS with 19 of his 31 home runs after the All-Star break. Not a bad springboard for a proper breakout in 2024, no?
In theory, yes. But Torkelson hasn't had the most encouraging spring, particularly in the sense that he's struck out in 12 of his 36 plate appearances. It's the same old bad habit rearing its ugly head again, as he had a 30th-percentile strikeout rate even last season.
Houston Astros: LHP Josh Hader
11 of 30
There's a reason the Astros signed Josh Hader for $95 million, thus setting a new reliever record in terms of present-day value.
And that's because he's very good at the whole relief pitching thing. He's struck out 42.2 percent of the batters he's ever faced. He has a 2.50 career ERA. He's been an All-Star five times. And so on.
Yet Hader's 2023 season contained less-awesome events, such as a 1.3 mph drop in his average fastball velocity and his lowest strikeout rate since his rookie year in 2017.
Since he'll turn 30 on April 7, such things can't be dismissed offhand as much ado about nothing.
Kansas City Royals: LHP Cole Ragans
12 of 30
The pick here could be Bobby Witt Jr., but part of the reason he deserved that $288.7 million extension is because he's trending right in every possible direction.
Of course, so is Cole Ragans. He was an out-of-nowhere sensation as he pitched to a 2.64 ERA in his first 12 starts as a Royal last season. And so far this spring, he's whiffed 29 percent of the batters he's faced and touched 100 mph.
I'm nonetheless picking on him because his sample size of excellence is still small enough to suspect it might be a bubble. Ragans may yet revert to the guy who had a modest 3.72 ERA in the minors and who was never a top-100 prospect.
Los Angeles Angels: 1B Nolan Schanuel
13 of 30
With Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon having been banged up for much of the last three seasons, the Angels lost their one and only prime star when Shohei Ohtani left.
The hope, though, is that Nolan Schanuel will put himself even more on the map after a quick ascension in 2023. He debuted just two months after the Angels drafted him, and he acquitted himself well in posting a .402 OBP in 29 games.
Getting on base isn't everything, though, and questions remain about what other skills Schanuel has. One of them concerns his power, which isn't a small issue given how high the standards are in that department for first basemen.
Los Angeles Dodgers: RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto
14 of 30
Perhaps Shohei Ohtani won't live up to his $700 million deal in the long run, but there isn't much doubt he'll at least be one of the top hitters in the majors this year.
If all goes well, Yoshinobu Yamamoto will begin his own $325 million contract by being one of the league's top pitchers. The ideal scenario is him twirling it like he did in Japan, where he had a sub-2.00 ERA in seven seasons.
But while he did flash some gnarly stuff, Yamamoto also got knocked around for 15 hits and nine runs over 9.2 innings this spring.
Even setting that aside, there's the question of how a 5'10", 176-pound pitcher will adjust to MLB's grueling schedule and pitching every fifth day instead of once per week.
Miami Marlins: SS Tim Anderson
15 of 30
Is it a step too far to assign hype to a guy who's only on a $5 million contract? It might be.
Then again, this is Tim Anderson we're talking about.
The Marlins signed him in hopes he can roll back the clock to 2019-2022, when he was one of the league's most prolific hitters. It can only bode well that his left knee is healthy after he injured it early last season.
Yet Anderson hasn't truly been an impact player since the first half of 2022, and he last made it through a full season unscathed way back in 2018. Even if the 30-year-old improves on last year's dismal .582 OPS, him being banged up may be a feature and not a bug.
Milwaukee Brewers: CF Jackson Chourio
16 of 30
You know a team is hyped about a prospect when it grants him the largest contract ever for a player with no major league experience.
And who can blame the Brewers for being high on Jackson Chourio? He ranks behind only his fellow Jackson (Holliday) on the prospect big board, and among his tools are plus power, speed and fielding skills.
But while all the makings of a superstar are there, Chourio only just turned 20 on March 11 and his leap to The Show is a big one. He did make it to Triple-A in 2023, but for only six games.
It wouldn't be the biggest surprise if his on-the-job training goes less than smoothly.
Minnesota Twins: 3B Royce Lewis
17 of 30
Death, taxes and Royce Lewis swatting grand slams.
Not counting the one he has this spring, the 24-year-old amazingly has five grand slams in just 70 career games. Four of those came amid his breakthrough season in 2023, wherein the 2017 No. 1 pick also hit .309 with a .921 OPS.
But as much as 2024 will hopefully see Lewis follow his breakthrough with a proper breakout, everything depends on him staying healthy. Because he's played in a total of 118 games since 2020, one must stop short of taking it for granted that he will.
New York Mets: RHP Luis Severino
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It would have been hard to make a pick for the Mets at the outset of spring training, but then Luis Severino had to go and set high expectations.
The erstwhile New York Yankee has been terrific in the three starts he's made, striking out eight against zero walks and five hits allowed in nine innings. He says he's fixed the pitch-tipping issue that got him in trouble in 2023, when he posted a 6.65 ERA.
This could be one of those "big if true" things, but it's also hard to believe the huge strikeout rate decline that plagued Severino last year was entirely a pitch-tipping thing.
And given he last had a fully healthy season in 2018, the durability question also looms.
New York Yankees: LF Alex Verdugo
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Marcus Stroman should be OK atop the Yankees' rotation until Gerrit Cole returns. He's a ground-ball pitcher, and their infield allowed the lowest average on grounders in 2023.
As to other Yankees who are under pressure to perform, Alex Verdugo needs to help Juan Soto in adding the left-handed thump that was missing from the lineup last season. To this end, he at least has the elite bat-to-ball skill to stabilize the lower third of the lineup.
Verdugo's offensive output has been declining, though, and it's not a given that Yankee Stadium will help him ward off further trouble with a boost to his power. His swing isn't tailored to pulled fly balls so much as line drives in the gaps.
Oakland Athletics: DH Brent Rooker
20 of 30
It was tempting to rain on Zack Gelof's rise as Oakland's homegrown star, but the problem with him is that he just can't stop raking. He's hitting .357 with four homers this spring.
So, Brent Rooker it is. He's coming into 2024 off a year in which he was one of the better stories in MLB. He had been an anonymous journeyman, but then there he was making the AL All-Star squad en route to a 30-homer season.
Yet the 29-year-old did have more downs than ups after a hot April, ultimately hitting .228 with a .740 OPS over 115 games. The downs have continued into this spring as he's gone 5-for-35, further hinting at a return to anonymous journeyman status.
Philadelphia Phillies: RHP Aaron Nola
21 of 30
Aaron Nola has been a below average pitcher in two of the last three seasons, so it ought to have been shocking when the Phillies re-signed him for seven years, $172 million.
Then again, innings machines like him are in increasingly short supply. And the 4.46 ERA he posted last year obscures that he was mostly solid down the stretch and into the playoffs, wherein his first three outings yielded only two runs over 18.2 innings.
However, the future durability of 30-year-olds with lots of mileage on their arms will never not arouse suspicion. Nola did also suffer some notable performance downturns in 2023, particularly with his whiff rate dropping from the 68th to the 48th percentile.
Pittsburgh Pirates: RHP Mitch Keller
22 of 30
The idea of Mitch Keller being a bust isn't a new one, but he wouldn't be here if he hadn't overcome that label.
The 27-year-old emerged as an elite prospect in 2019 only to post a 5.77 ERA in his first 53 major league starts, but that feels like forever ago. He's since become an All-Star with a 3.81 ERA over his last 48 starts, thus earning himself a nice extension.
Yet, as much as I like Keller and think his contract is justified, I'm also wary of how he got rocked for a 5.59 ERA after last year's All-Star break. His cutter ceased to be a weapon, and that could be a problem in 2024 if he doesn't find a new one for use against lefties.
San Diego Padres: RHP Dylan Cease
23 of 30
The newest member of the Padres is one who should elevate their rotation into one of the best in baseball.
It was only in 2022 that Dylan Cease made a run at the AL Cy Young Award by way of a 2.20 ERA and 227 strikeouts over 184 innings. He took a step back in 2023, but his stuff remained elite and he's been overpowering in whiffing 14 of 31 total hitters this spring.
However, let's not mistake Cease's step back in 2023 for something that simply can't happen again. He took hits in more categories than just his ERA, including with a 1.2 mph drop in fastball velocity and a big increase in his average exit velocity.
San Francisco Giants: CF Jung Hoo Lee
24 of 30
At the outset of the winter, MLB Trade Rumors projected Jung Hoo Lee for a $50 million deal. The Giants signed him for more than twice that with a $113 million contract.
It should feel outrageous, but it seems anything but right now. In hitting .348 with the Giants this spring, the 25-year-old has provided stateside fans a glimpse of what his career in Korea was like. He hit .340 in seven years there, for which his lowest seasonal average was .318.
Yet despite a long home run on Feb. 29, Lee has generally been light on thump in collecting only one other extra-base hit this spring. Still lingering, then, is what had been the biggest question about his major league outlook: What power, if any, will he offer?
Seattle Mariners: 2B Jorge Polanco
25 of 30
Even knowing how much the Mariners needed a second baseman, the premium they paid to acquire Jorge Polanco still came as a surprise.
However, few things put the mind at ease like a newcomer arriving to spring training and ripping off a .407 average. It's a solid reminder that the 30-year-old is a one-time All-Star who boasts a squarely above average 111 OPS+ for his career.
What Polanco also is, though, is a guy who's played in only 57 percent of possible games over the last two seasons, the latter of which also brought a spike in his strikeout rate. We're not talking a Kolten Wong-level disaster, but there is some fear that he is past his prime.
St. Louis Cardinals: 3B Nolan Arenado
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Both Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado are looking to bounce back from subpar seasons in 2023, and there are reasons to have faith that both will.
Goldschmidt simply deserved better offensive results last year, while Arenado's down year may have been a case of him wearing himself out in pursuit of better outcomes on both sides of the ball. It's almost impressive that he still ended up with 26 homers and 93 RBI.
Still, it's hard not to engage with the question of whether Arenado's 2023 season was a case of age beginning to get to him. The 32-year-old battled a bad back for much of the year, after all, and he also sustained a spike in his strikeout rate.
Tampa Bay Rays: 1B Yandy Díaz
27 of 30
Somebody had to go here, and it was with much reluctance that I landed on Yandy Díaz.
I'm not banking on him taking a big step back in the hitting department after he led the AL with a .330 average in 2023. He's a very good contact hitter and doesn't have to work hard to get a ball through the infield defense. He is, respectfully, a bit of a unit.
But does Díaz have another 22 home runs in him? He collected 12 of those in the first two months of 2023, after which his swing plane flattened out and he went yard only 10 more times. That was more in line with the kind of hitter he'd been before last season.
Texas Rangers: RF Adolis García
28 of 30
It's not a comfortable feeling going after a guy who's fresh off making himself into a legend in the biggest state in the lower 48.
Following a 39-homer regular season that netted him All-Star honors, Adolis García put himself front and center in the Rangers' push to the World Series championship. He hit .323 and homered eight times, including the game-winner in Game 1 of the Fall Classic.
I'm nonetheless picking on him out of suspicion that last October has potentially elicited some amnesia over the volatility of his star power.
The 31-year-old's career .302 OBP is emblematic of a free-swinging approach, and it's possible age won't help what are already significant issues with hitting fastballs.
Toronto Blue Jays: 1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
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Here's a fun question: Who's the one guy who looks like MLB's best hitter when he connects?
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is my pick, as that violent-yet-sweet swing of his sure does produce aesthetically pleasing rockets. And since he's a three-time All-Star and now an MLB The Show cover model, it seems fair to say I'm not his only fan.
However, it's also fair to point out that he has only enjoyed one season as a proper superstar, and that was three years ago. His youth (still just 25) allows for hope that he can do it again, but his 2023 season also proves a hitter can excel at both making contact and hitting the ball hard and still be missing something.
Washington Nationals: SS CJ Abrams
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CJ Abrams hadn't even played in 80 minor league games before he got called to The Show in 2022, so it's understandable that his career started slow.
Toward the end of 2023, though, he seemed to find his footing. He posted a respectable .734 OPS in the second half, also going 33-for-35 in stolen bases. Not bad for a 22-year-old learning on the job.
But while Abrams' next step is hopefully a breakout, things such as his ability to drive the ball and play quality defense remain suspect. And he hasn't exactly quieted the offensive concerns this spring, as he's hit just .257 with three extra-base hits.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
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