Nightmare Matchups for Potential No. 1 Seeds in the 2024 Men's NCAA Tournament
Recent losses by Virginia and Purdue stand as reminders that nothing is guaranteed, but landing a No. 1 seed in the men's NCAA tournament is certainly an advantageous spot.
According to B/R's resident bracketologist Kerry Miller, five programs—Connecticut, Houston, North Carolina, Purdue and Tennessee—are in the hunt for a No. 1 seed. (Arizona has a shot, he tells me, but not a great one.)
As talented as those rosters are, a bad matchup is out there.
We're not merely throwing darts, either. In the last two seasons, for example, we've pegged a second-round upset for a top seed. North Carolina defeated Baylor in 2022, and Arkansas knocked off Kansas last year.
No path to a tournament title is easy. But these top-seeded hopefuls wouldn't mind avoiding a major thorn in the Sweet 16 or earlier.
Connecticut Huskies
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Nightmare Matchup: Kentucky Wildcats (in Sweet 16)
Connecticut's Vulnerability: I Have to Say Something?
Look, I will probably be picking UConn to win. Boring, sure, and the NCAA tournament hasn't had a repeat champion since Florida in 2006 and 2007. That carries weight. Still, the Huskies have dropped only three contests all season. But in those two of those results, Creighton drained 14 threes and Kansas hit nine.
Kentucky's Strength: Might Get Hot!
The easy counterargument is that Kentucky's defense couldn't stop a paper bag from getting wet in the desert. Connecticut might put up 150 points on the 'Cats. Nevertheless, the nation's top three-point percentage belongs to UK, which has Antonio Reeves, Reed Sheppard and Rob Dillingham all attempting four-plus triples per night and converting at least 44 percent of them.
Houston Cougars
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Nightmare Matchup: Auburn Tigers (in Sweet 16)
Houston's Vulnerability: Lots of Close Games
Behind a sensational defense, the Cougars are practically a lock for a top seed. Since the beginning of Big 12 action, though, they've navigated a nerve-wracking run on the road. Houston went 6-3 in trips to conference teams, yet no win included a margin greater than eight points. Two of the victories had an overtime finish, too. One major reason? Houston is just 245th nationally in field-goal percentage.
Auburn's Strength: Stingy Defense
You ready for a rock fight? This showdown would feature two of the country's top defenses. Auburn has yielded the fifth-lowest two-point percentage and 24th-lowest on the perimeter. The interesting contrast would be that the Tigers prefer an uptempo game, whereas Houston plays a grinding pace. Auburn can excel defensively and has enough scoring firepower to make Houston sweat—especially in a tense, late-game moment.
North Carolina Tar Heels
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Nightmare Matchup: Mississippi State Bulldogs (in second round)
North Carolina's Vulnerability: Perimeter Depth
Senior guard RJ Davis has unlocked his shooting range, burying 41.6 percent of his 7.4 three-point attempts per game. Harrison Ingram and Cormac Ryan are both quality long-range shooters, as well. Beyond them, however, UNC barely has a threat. The other six members of the Heels' entire rotation have combined for five games with multiple threes—and never more than two in a game.
Mississippi State's Strength: Three-Point Defense
As of this writing, the Bulldogs rank eighth nationally with a 29.5 clip allowed from the perimeter. The best version of this defense—one that just limited Tennessee to 56 points in an SEC tournament upset—can be suffocating. Mississippi State has the ability to shut down Davis and at least one of his complements to make life difficult for UNC.
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Purdue Boilermakers
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Nightmare Matchup: Oklahoma Sooners (in second round)
Purdue's Vulnerability: Post Defense
Zach Edey is an exceptional player and tremendous deterrent. According to Hoop-Math.com, Purdue has surrendered the fourth-fewest percentage of shots at the rim. The cruel juxtaposition is the Boilers are awful—348th out of 362, to be exact—when an opponent gets there.
Oklahoma's Strength: Attacking the Rim and Perimeter Defense
Yes, the 7'4" Edey would be towering over Oklahoma's wing-filled unit—but so did 15-seed Saint Peter's in 2022 and 16-seed Fairleigh Dickinson last year. What the Sooners can do, however, is run a motion offense that may force Edey to drift away from the basket. They rank 54th in shots at the rim, per Hoop-Math. Throw in a defense that has ceded the ninth-lowest long-range percentage, and OU is built to give Purdue a test.
Tennessee Volunteers
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Nightmare Matchup: Nebraska Cornhuskers (in second round)
Tennessee's Vulnerability: Inconsistent Backcourt
New season, familiar story. Thanks to Dalton Knecht, the Vols boast a stellar microwave scorer. The problem is Tennessee still cannot shake its complementary issues once again. Jahmai Mashack is the only other perimeter player to shoot better than Zakai Zeigler's not-so-great 40.4 percent from the floor. Knecht has efficiently scored 28-plus points in eight games, yet UT is 4-4 in those matchups.
Nebraska's Strength: Balanced Defense
As long as the Huskers don't get worked on the offensive glass, they'd be a pest. Nebraska fits a similar profile to Mississippi State, South Carolina and Texas A&M, a trio of conference teams that have accounted four of the Vols' seven losses. Each one of those rosters has a wing-heavy rotation and defense-driven style. Nebraska has yielded the nation's 19th-lowest effective field-goal percentage, which is even better than any of those SEC schools.
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