Nightmare Matchups for Potential No. 1 Seeds in the 2023 NCAA Tournament
Earning a No. 1 seed in the men's NCAA basketball tournament is both a huge accomplishment and the best indicator of possible success.
That certainly is no surprise, considering a top billing is the direct result of in-season excellence. No other seed accounts for more Final Four appearances or national champions, particularly the latter.
But in every tournament, at least three No. 1 seeds are guaranteed to lose at some point.
Before the 2023 bracket is released, fans of projected top teams should be hoping to avoid seeing one particular opponent placed in their favorite school's region on Selection Sunday.
Last year, for example, we pointed out Baylor wanting no part of North Carolina in the second round. Alas.
As of the Bracket Matrix update on March 8, five programs—Alabama, Houston, Kansas, Purdue and UCLA—are potential top seeds. Our focus is identifying a tough matchup for each of them in the Sweet 16 or earlier.
Make your picks: Play the NCAA March Madness Men's Bracket Challenge and Tournament Run.
UCLA Bruins
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Nightmare Matchup: Texas A&M Aggies
UCLA's Challenge
Few offenses are as allergic to threes as UCLA, which attempts fewer than 30 percent of its shots from the perimeter. Because the Bruins have a tremendous defense, that reliance on two-point jumpers—the 12th-highest rate nationally, per Hoop-Math.com—has worked out.
But if UCLA meets an opponent that excels defensively inside the arc, the potential for an upset is unmistakable.
Texas A&M's Strength
Stout defense has also carried Texas A&M this season. Most impressively, opponents have hit a meager 32.7 percent—the seventh-worst rate in the country—on two-point jumpers.
So, yeah, not an ideal matchup for UCLA!
Both programs rank lower than 220nd in tempo, per KenPom.com. This could be a good, ol' fashioned rock fight in a thorny potential second-round clash for UCLA, which also wouldn't mind escaping Big Ten schools Michigan State and Northwestern for identical reasons.
Purdue Boilermakers
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Nightmare Matchup: Duke Blue Devils
Purdue's Challenge
Zach Edey is Purdue's danger. Only two other players—Fletcher Loyer and Braden Smith—average more than six points. The problem is Loyer has endured a monthlong cold streak from the perimeter, while Smith's scoring contributions are overall inconsistent.
Barring a string of incredible luck, the Boilers will run into an opponent that can match up with the 7'4" Edey. Once that happens, Purdue desperately needs its complementary pieces to produce.
Duke's Strength
Roaming the paint for Duke are NBA prospects Dereck Lively II and Kyle Filipowski, a pair of 7-footers.
Not coincidentally, per Hoop-Math.com, the team is 25th in field-goal percentage allowed at the rim. Lively himself blocks 2.3 shots per game, while Filipowski is just shy of one.
On the other end, the Blue Devils rank 48th in shots attempted at the rim. Purdue, despite Edey's presence, is a remarkable 343rd defensively on those looks. It's fair to say the Boilermakers wouldn't mind Duke—plus Auburn and Arkansas, for good measure—getting placed on the opposite side of the bracket.
In case Purdue ends up as a No. 2, you've got to believe the Boilermakers will be hoping the Blue Devils wind up with better than a No. 7 seed—or worse than a No. 5 if Purdue is a top seed.
Alabama Crimson Tide
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Nightmare Matchup: Saint Mary's Gaels
Alabama's Challenge
While the Crimson Tide gladly live on the perimeter, they're not exactly an efficient group. Alabama ranks 10th in three-point attempt rate but connects on just 33.9 percent of those tries—good for 204th nationally.
The offense atones for that instability with a commitment to rebounding; Bama is 50th in corralling its own misses and 17th overall. However, the Tide can be contained if a defense forces them to choose the correct shot the first time and not capitalize on second chances.
Saint Mary's Strength
Can we please see this matchup? For posterity?
Gonzaga recently beat Saint Mary's twice, so a fast-paced offense, in theory, can break down the Gaels. Gonzaga, though, is comfortable with the mid-range shots that the Saint Mary's defense forces; Alabama attempts those at the third-lowest rate nationally and is 291st in making them.
While giving up offensive rebounds at the second-lowest rate, the Gaels play at KenPom's fifth-slowest tempo—a stark contrast to Alabama as the second-fastest team. The clash of styles would be fascinating.
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Houston Cougars
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Nightmare Matchup: Florida Atlantic Owls
Houston's Challenge
While the ranking is somewhat skewed by "we're losing and have to shoot threes" moments from opponents, Houston also invites perimeter shots. The defense has the 16th-highest three-point attempt rate allowed.
Because the Cougars play so slowly—347th in tempo, per KenPom—a hot-shooting offense could be crushing to Houston.
FAU's Strength
Similarly, the asterisk here is competition level. Florida Atlantic has played a favorable schedule all season, most notably splitting games with SEC opponents Florida and Ole Miss.
Nevertheless, FAU is 32nd in three-point attempt rate and 20th in long-range percentage. Seven members of the Owls' rotation hoist at least 2.8 triples per game, and five players hit 36 percent or better—including both Johnell Davis and Nick Boyd at 41-plus percent. Only eight offenses have buried 10-plus threes in more games than FAU's 18.
Throw in FAU ranking 23rd in opponent offensive rebound rate, and it could outshoot Houston while neutralizing a key strength.
Kansas Jayhawks
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Nightmare Matchup: Arkansas Razorbacks
Kansas' Challenge
One individual will not singlehandedly determine the outcome of a game, but Dajuan Harris Jr. is really testing that belief.
In the Jayhawks' wins, he's shot 51.8 percent from floor and drilled 50 percent of his three-pointers. But in six losses, Harris has connected on a shocking 17.1 percent of attempts with a 15.4 long-distance clip.
Strength
The short version is "any program with a backcourt that can frustrate Kansas" for an entire game. Arkansas certainly fits the mold.
Davonte Davis is a tenacious guard who averages 1.4 steals and earned All-SEC Defensive Team honors. Around him, the Razorbacks have an active perimeter group that allows the 36th-lowest three-point clip in the nation.
Arkansas hasn't packed much of a scoring punch but is most effective inside the arc. Kansas is only average at preventing and defending shots at the rim, so two of the Jayhawks' top vulnerabilities match the Hogs' preferences.
Note: Stats accurate as of March 10.
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