8 Biggest X-Factors in 2024 NBA Playoff Race
The NBA regular season is in its final stretch, with most teams having 20 or fewer games left to play. The standings are incredibly tight in both conferences.
The Boston Celtics have the No. 1 seed in the East locked up barring an absurd losing streak. After that, there are mini-races, like the No. 2 and No. 3 seeds flip-flopping nightly. Seeds Nos. 4-8 could see many changes down the stretch, as two-and-a-half games separate them.
The West has even tighter races going. There is a three-way race for the No. 1 seed. And the fifth seed is just four-and-a-half games ahead of the 10th seed.
Over the next 20 games, there will be several changes in the playoff races mentioned above.
And these are some possible X-factors that will come into play.
Injuries
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It is never fun to talk about injuries as an X-factor, but this is not NBA2K where we can turn injuries off. A few teams are dealing with injuries that will affect the playoff race.
The Minnesota Timberwolves recently received bad news in the form of Karl-Anthony Towns' torn meniscus in his left knee. He will undergo knee surgery and be re-evaluated in four weeks, meaning he is likely done for the season.
That is a big blow to Minnesota, which is battling for the top seed in the Western Conference. Losing 22.1 points and 8.4 rebounds a night will be hard to replace, even for Naz Reid.
In the East, Cleveland has been dealing with injuries all season. The latest ones have them losing Evan Mobley to a sprained ankle and Donovan Mitchell receiving a PRP injection in his knee, causing him to miss games.
The Cavaliers are trying to get the No. 2 seed in the East. They are just a half-game behind the Milwaukee Bucks. Losing two starters for an indefinite amount of time makes it more challenging.
The Golden State Warriors' Stephen Curry sprained his ankle and will miss time. LeBron James of the Los Angeles Lakers is in the same boat with a sore ankle. Injuries are already playing a part in the playoff race.
Jason Kidd
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For the second successive season, the Dallas Mavericks are falling in the standings after the All-Star break. This time, though, they can't point to injuries. Post All-Star, they have lost five of their past eight, including a bad loss to the depleted Philadelphia 76ers.
The Mavs cannot ask for more from Luka Dončić, who is averaging 37.6 points on 52.2/40.0/84.9 shooting splits, 11.3 assists, and 9.9 rebounds.
This is on Jason Kidd to fix. He is the X-factor for this team's playoff race. In the past seven games, the Mavs' defensive rating is dead last at 126, almost four points worse than the next team, the Washington Wizards.
Kidd has to get the defense back on track if the Mavs are going to have any chance of staying out of the play-in tournament or making some noise in the playoffs. Whether it's tinkering with the rotations or changing the schemes, Kidd has to do something and stop the drop in standings.
D'Angelo Russell
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The Lakers' offense has struggled this season, and D'Angelo Russell may represent the solution to the problems. From January to February, he was playing his best basketball. Russell averaged 21.5 points, shooting 44.1 percent from three on 8.4 attempts and 6.7 assists.
The Lakers had a great February, going 9-3 with an offensive rating of 119.6—the highest they've had in any month this season. Los Angeles needs more runs like this to find its way out of the play-in tournament.
That will require Russell to be consistent, as the Lakers never know what they will get from him. He can go 3-of-10 from the field against Sacramento or drop 44 points against Milwaukee.
The Lakers know what they can expect from LeBron James and Anthony Davis.
Russell, however, is the Lakers' best three-point shooter, taking at least five attempts a game. He has shot 44.2 percent from three in Los Angeles' wins and 36.9 percent in losses. Naturally, that means a drop in points. Both Davis' and James' scoring numbers drop in losses, but not as much as Russell's. He is the Lakers' X-factor for the stretch run.
Jonathan Kuminga
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The Golden State Warriors are toward the end of a dynastic run. That makes Jonathan Kuminga the most important Warrior for the playoff race. They are trying to claw their way out of the play-in tournament, and Kuminga is critical to their success.
Kuminga brings a youthful athleticism that the Warriors have been missing for a long time. He has been playing out of his mind since the calendar turned 2024. He is the Warriors' second-leading scorer at 19 points while shooting 55 percent from the field.
More importantly, the Warriors' defensive rating is better with Kuminga on the floor—a 5.3-point swing. He has become a valuable contributor and a key component to the Warriors' success.
Stephen Curry recently sprained his ankle and is expected to miss some time, but the Warriors cannot afford to drop any games in the playoff race. This is where Kuminga will have to step up and play an even more significant role in their success until Curry returns. Otherwise, Golden State will be stuck in the bottom half of the play-in tournament.
Milwaukee Bucks Defense
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The Milwaukee Bucks' coaching change did not start with roaring success after the All-Star break, though the Bucks have hit their stride with Doc Rivers running the show.
The most significant improvement came on the defensive end. Before Rivers' arrival, the Bucks were 19th in defensive rating at 116.3. Since he took over, their rating has been seventh in the NBA at 110.2. That has put the Bucks a half-game ahead of Cleveland for the No. 2 seed.
Even more impressive when it comes to the Bucks defense is that they have limited defensive talent on the perimeter. Damian Lillard is regarded as a negative defender. Malik Beasley is average at best. Pat Connaughton can be serviceable, and Jae Crowder is near the end of his playing career.
The X-factor for the Bucks in the fight for the second seed is whether their defense, particularly their perimeter defense, can hold up enough to keep them ahead of the Cavaliers.
Joel Embiid's Return
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Before Joel Embiid got hurt, the Philadelphia 76ers were among the few threats to the Boston Celtics. Since then, they have gone 6-11 and fallen into the play-in tournament. It makes sense, considering Embiid was playing at an MVP level.
If/when Embiid returns is a major X-factor in the playoff race. A February report has him being re-evaluated in four weeks, which could be any day now. It is safe to assume the 76ers are out of the race for a top-three seed, but they are only two games out of fourth. They are likely safe from falling out of the play-in tournament, but Embiid's return in a few weeks could be a big lift.
The other question is, even if Embiid returns before the playoffs, what type of condition will he be in? How long will it take for him to ramp up?
Embiid has never been one to make a speedy recovery, and it would be hard to assume he can come back from knee surgery and pick up right where he left off.
This impacts seeds four through eight for sure. It will all come down to when Embiid returns and if the Sixers can go on a run when he does.
Suns' Big Three
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The thought once the Phoenix Suns traded for Bradley Beal was that their newly formed big three could contend for a championship. That has not been the case this season, as injuries have derailed them. In the season's last stretch, the Suns will try to stay out of the play-in tournament.
The trio of Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, and Beal has been productive for the Suns, but the problem is that they are almost never on the court at the same time. They have only played 23 games together, and in the 455 minutes they played, the Suns have a net rating of 10.1.
That's not enough time to develop the chemistry needed for a big run, but the trio is a playoff-race X-factor. They are a nightmare to defend if they get time on the floor with one another. Only a few teams have enough defensive talent to stifle such high-powered scorers.
A healthy run could see the Suns finish as high as fifth in the West, and a bad run of luck could land them in 10th at the bottom of the play-in, as they are only 3.5 games up on the Warriors.
Tanking Teams
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Most might not expect tanking teams to impact the playoff race down the stretch, but they play a pivotal role—teams like the Detroit Pistons, Toronto Raptors, and San Antonio Spurs don't have much incentive to win right now.
As mentioned earlier, the Suns are trying to stay out of the play-in tournament and ahead of the Dallas Mavericks. Between those two teams, the schedule favors the Mavs over the final 19 games. The Suns have four games left against tanking teams and nine games against some of the toughest teams in the NBA, including two against the Boston Celtics.
It is the other way around for the Mavs. They have nine games left against inferior opponents, which gives them a leg up on the Suns in the race out of the play-in tournament.
Mo Dakhil spent six years with the Los Angeles Clippers and two years with the San Antonio Spurs as a video coordinator, as well as three years with the Australian men's national team. Follow him on Twitter, @MoDakhil_NBA.
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