Men's NCAA Tournament 2024: Power Ranking All 68 Teams
Selection Sunday has finally arrived, and with it the 2024 NCAA men's basketball tournament field has been set.
After months of arguing about NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET) rankings, KenPom.com ratings, quadrant-based records, strengths of schedule and the like, none of that junk matters anymore.
There will, of course, be a few more hours or days of complaining about who got left out or unfairly seeded, but too bad, so sad. We've got our field, and it's time to move on to the real fun: picking the brackets.
And we have been researching the heck out of these 68 teams throughout Championship Week, in hopes of creating at least a little bit of a bracket-picking edge over someone who is just going to throw darts or make selections based on mascots.
Though, given the complete chaos that transpired in Champ Week, dart throwing and coin flipping is fully encouraged this year.
Based on a combination of player talent, current roster health, marquee wins, biggest weaknesses and a healthy dose of gut feeling/eye test, we have ranked all 68 NCAA tournament teams.
Generally speaking, if you're trying to decide which team to choose in a matchup, the higher-ranked team would be our suggestion. There are matchup-based exceptions to that rule of thumb, but the teams at the top of our list are the ones with the least troubling Achilles' heels. Thus, they are the ones most likely to reach the Final Four.
Before we dive in, a thank-you must be extended to Joel Reuter. B/R's MLB power rankings guru was a huge help and contributed to this piece amid spring training chaos. Since he lives in Big Ten country, he did the write-ups for each of those teams, as well as handful of the winners of the one-bid leagues.
One final note: Seeding/draw had nothing to do with these rankings.
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68. Wagner Seahawks
1 of 68
Record: 16-15 (7-9 in NEC)
Star Player: What little offensive firepower Wagner has comes mostly from Melvin Council Jr. The JUCO transfer led the Seahawks in points, rebounds, steal and blocks, and also finished second on the team in assists. He plays almost every minute of every game, and it's hard to imagine they can pull off a miracle upset unless he catches fire.
Biggest Wins: The only ones that mattered: Winning consecutive road games against Sacred Heart, Central Connecticut and Merrimack to steal the NEC automatic bid. Prior to that, Wagner had just two wins against the KenPom top 200.
Reason to Worry: In addition to not winning a single Quad 1 or Quad 2 game and suffering 10 Quad 4 losses, Wagner is just plain unwatchable on offense. The Seahawks play almost as slowly as Virginia does, but also have one of the worst effective field-goal percentages in the nation. They legitimately might not break 40 against a No. 1 seed.
March Madness Ceiling: Listen, we had Fairleigh Dickinson at No. 68 in our power rankings last year, so we're not going to say it's outright impossible for Wagner to pull off a stunner. But, come on. There's no way lightning strikes twice in the NEC in back-to-back years, right?
67. Grambling State Tigers
2 of 68
Record: 20-14 (14-4 in SWAC)
Star Player: Kintavious Dozier is Grambling's leading scorer, thanks in part to a 34-point performance early in the year in a loss to Washington State. He scored in double figures in each of the Tigers' three SWAC tournament wins, and they are 7-0 this calendar year when he scores at least 13 points.
Biggest Wins: Grambling entered league play without a single win over a D-I opponent, so the big one was certainly the conference championship victory over Texas Southern. That foe had won seven of the past 10 SWAC tournaments, so winning that Tigers vs. Tigers showdown to get to the NCAA tournament for the first time in program history was an incredible moment.
Reason to Worry: Grambling plays a very physical style which could maybe cause some problems, but this team doesn't shoot well and turns the ball over a lot. In five nonconference games against top 50 opponents, the average margin of defeat was 32.8 points.
March Madness Ceiling: While the SWAC has won a handful of play-in games in recent years, you have to go back to 1993 to find the last time this league's champion made it to the second round, when No. 13 seed Southern upset Georgia Tech. Suffice it to say, though, a No. 13 seed was never on the table for this squad.
66. Howard Bison
3 of 68
Record: 18-16 (9-5 in MEAC)
Star Player: Junior Bryce Harris has nearly doubled his playing time this season from 16.0 to 31.3 minutes per game, and in the process he has emerged as the team's leading scorer (16.6 PPG) and rebounder (7.6). The 6'4" guard averaged 20.0 points, 7.3 rebounds and 2.3 assists over three games in the MEAC tournament.
Biggest Wins: The Bison managed to put together competitive games against Cincinnati (86-81) and Georgia Tech (88-85) in November, so they have at least shown they can hang with a major conference foe. They knocked No. 1 seed Norfolk State in the MEAC tournament semifinals before edging No. 6 seed Delaware State by three points on Saturday to secure the automatic bid.
Reason to Worry: Can a team that ranked 333rd in KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency really be expected to slow down a legitimate title contender? The Bison only had one victory above the Quad 4 level all year, and finding enough offensive production to make up for their defensive shortcomings could prove to be an insurmountable task.
March Madness Ceiling: The Bison suffered a 96-68 loss to Kansas as a No. 16 seed in the 2023 NCAA tournament, and a similar fate likely awaits them this year.
65. Montana State Bobcats
4 of 68
Record: 17-17 (9-9 in Big Sky)
Star Player: Robert Ford leads Montana State in points, rebounds and steals and almost led the team in assists. Fun fact: He's the only player in more than three decades of men's college basketball to rack up at least 500 points, 250 rebounds, 100 assists and 100 steals in a single season.
Biggest Wins: California had a dreadful season, but it beat Colorado, Washington State, Oregon and USC on its home floor. Who it didn't beat at home? Montana State. The Bobcats scored an early road win over California. But more impressive was the three wins in three days against Weber State, Sacramento State and arch rival Montana to win the Big Sky tournament.
Reason to Worry: It's a third consecutive NCAA tournament for the Bobcats from Bozeman, but this team is nowhere near as good as the ones from the last two seasons, which still both lost by double digits in the first round. In particular, this team is dreadful on the glass, and had a year-to-date scoring margin of just +1.0 PPG, despite playing a grand total of one game against a top-100 foe.
March Madness Ceiling: If Ford loses his mind and flirts with a quadruple-double, maybe the Bobcats pull off a miracle. Short of that, though, it's likely going to be another very brief trip to the dance.
64. Stetson Hatters
5 of 68
Record: 22-12 (11-5 in ASUN)
Star Player: After playing sparingly as a freshman at Grand Canyon, Jalen Blackmon has turned in back-to-back standout seasons at Stetson. The 6'3" guard led the Atlantic Sun in scoring (21.5 PPG) while finishing sixth in the nation in made threes (109), and he poured in a season-high 43 points on 12-of-22 shooting and 7-of-13 from beyond the arc against Austin Peay in the conference tournament title game.
Biggest Wins: The Hatters beat Big 12 opponent UCF on the road on Nov. 26 for a Quad 1 victory, and they also hung around with a good Cincinnati team in an eight-point loss in December. They didn't face much in the way of quality competition during conference play, but they closed out the year playing well overall with an 11-3 record over their final 14 games.
Reason to Worry: The Hatters are one of the worst defensive teams in the nation. They rank 342nd in KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency out of 362 teams, and slowing down a high-powered major conference offense could prove impossible.
March Madness Ceiling: it's tough to put much March Madness faith in a team with eight Quad 4 losses and a porous defense.
63. Saint Peter's Peacocks
6 of 68
Record: 19-13 (12-8 in MAAC)
Star Player: Corey Washington went from averaging just 3.9 shots per game as a freshman to leading the Peacocks in scoring this year, tallying 16.2 points, 6.5 rebounds and 1.3 steals en route to All-MAAC honors. The 6'6" forward has 10 games with at least 20 points, including 24 points on 9-of-14 shooting against Fairfield in the MAAC title game on Saturday.
Biggest Wins: The MAAC title game victory over Fairfield was one of only three victories above the Quad 4 level for the Peacocks, and it was hands down the biggest. They punched their ticket to March Madness for the fifth time in school history as the No. 5 seed in their conference tourney.
Reason to Worry: The Peacocks only played two games against teams that were Top 100 in NET ranking, losing to Seton Hall (70-59) and Rutgers (71-40) in lopsided games. The defense that was the calling card of their Cinderella run in 2022 is still a strength, but it's tough to put much faith in an offense that ranks 304th in KenPom's adjusted efficiency.
March Madness Ceiling: It feels unwise to completely write off a team two years removed from a shocking run to the Elite Eight, but it's hard to see this team making it out of the First Round.
62. Longwood Lancers
7 of 68
Record: 21-13 (6-10 in Big South)
Star Player: Point guard Walyn Napper leads the Lancers in scoring (14.6 PPG) and assists (4.6 APG), and he recorded 10 points, 11 assists, seven rebounds and two steals leading the offense in the Big South title game.
Biggest Wins: The Lancers came out of the Big South tournament as the No. 5 seed, taking down No. 1 High Point before serving up an 85-59 blowout against No. 2 UNC Asheville in the title game. The victory over High Point was the second time they beat the regular season conference champs in the month of March, and those stand as their best victories of the season. It wasn't a win, but they did manage to hang around with Dayton in a 78-69 loss in December.
Reason to Worry: With just 5.8 made three-pointers per game, the Lancers are going to have a difficult time finding enough offensive firepower to hang around with one of the nation's elite teams in their opening game. They only played two games all year against teams slotted in the Top 100 in the NET rankings, and suffered six Quad 4 losses while posting a losing record in conference play.
March Madness Ceiling: With a third straight 20-win season and two NCAA tournament appearances in the last three years, Griff Aldrich is quietly building a solid program at Longwood. The wait will likely continue for that first March Madness win, though.
61. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
8 of 68
Record: 22-11 (8-8 in C-USA)
Star Player: The main Hilltopper is Don McHenry, averaging around 15 points per game and also leading the team in assists. But the beauty of this team is its depth, basically running through hockey-style line changes while playing at the fastest tempo in the country. And if McHenry has an off night, there are still eight other guys who can score.
Biggest Wins: The only even remotely noteworthy win during the regular season was a road victory over Louisiana Tech, which was the best team in Conference USA. But definitely the biggest win came against UTEP in the conference championship game—in which McHenry went for 25 points.
Reason to Worry: While Western Kentucky plays at the fastest tempo in the country, it doesn't do so efficiently. And there have occasionally been opponents who were able to get the Hilltoppers to play well below their preferred pace, so it's not even like it's a guarantee they'll be able to speed up the opposition.
March Madness Ceiling: Credit to Steve Lutz, who is now 3-for-3 at making the NCAA tournament in his D-I career. He got there in his first two years at Texas A&M-Corpus Christi, and then immediately did what Rick Stansbury couldn't do in nearly a decade at the helm. But Lutz's previous teams were eliminated in the first round (or the play-in game), and that will likely happen again.
60. South Dakota State Jackrabbits
9 of 68
Record: 22-12 (12-4 in Summit League)
Star Player: Denver's Tommy Bruner was the nation's regular-season leader in points per game, but he didn't even win Summit League POY. That honor went to South Dakota State's Zeke Mayo, averaging 18.8 points, 5.8 rebounds and 3.5 assists per contest. If the Jackrabbits are going to hop their way to the first NCAA tournament victory in program history, it'll be because of a big helping of Mayo.
Biggest Wins: Not to be confused with the SDSU from the Mountain West that got quite a few quality wins, this SDSU did a whole lot of nothing, going winless in three opportunities against the top two Quadrants. The Jackrabbits' only noteworthy wins came in the Summit League tournament.
Reason to Worry: Aside from shooting pretty well, there's nothing that South Dakota State does at a high level. And what it really doesn't do well is defend the perimeter. There was a stretch of six consecutive games in January where SDSU's foes made at least 10 three pointers.
March Madness Ceiling: South Dakota State went 0-4 against teams in the KenPom top 140, and also lost eight other games. There were previous iterations of this team that felt like legitimate threats to pull off a tournament upset, with mid-major phenoms Nate Wolters or Mike Daum leading the way. This year's squad doesn't have anywhere near that much potential—and even those previous teams were never able to do anything with that potential.
59. Oakland Golden Grizzlies
10 of 68
Record: 23-11 (15-5 in Horizon)
Star Player: Trey Townsend is a problem. The Horizon League POY went off for 38 points, 11 rebounds and five assists in the league title game against Milwaukee. It was only his eighth double-double of the season, but the 6'6" power forward can fill up the box score, going for 28-7-6 in Oakland's win at Xavier.
Biggest Wins: The road win over the Musketeers was the big win, but the Grizz also put up good fights in early losses to Illinois, Drake and Ohio State. They also played December games against Dayton and Michigan State, though those weren't nearly as competitive. The main takeaway, however, is that this team was battle-tested in the nonconference.
Reason to Worry: While there's not a glaring weakness aside from "allows assists at the highest rate in the country," there's also nothing in particular that Oakland does at an elite level—which is what you're hoping to hang your hat on if you're riding with a Cinderella. The Grizzlies have also lost six games to teams well outside the KenPom top 100.
March Madness Ceiling: Greg Kampe is the longest-tenured coach in the sport, and he has been waiting to get back into the dance for more than a decade. Oakland almost stunned Texas in the first round in 2011, and maybe it could pull off a little magic this year. It's not likely, though.
58. Colgate Raiders
11 of 68
Record: 25-9 (16-2 in Patriot League)
Star Player: What are the odds that there would be both a Braden Smith and a Braeden Smith averaging north of 12 points, five rebounds and five assists per game? Purdue has the former, while Colgate has the one with an extra "e" in his name. If he can flirt with a triple-double, maybe the Raiders have a shot.
Biggest Wins: In what is otherwise a Patriot League devoid of KenPom top 250 teams, there weren't many quality wins for Colgate to find. The Raiders did win at Vermont in early December, though. That's a good one. They also almost won at Syracuse and put up a little bit of a fight in a road loss to Illinois, getting the deficit down to single digits in the final few minutes of that one. Kind of a moral victory.
Reason to Worry: Quite simply, this version of Colgate isn't quite as good as the one that went to—and was immediately eliminated from—the past four NCAA tournaments. The Raiders are a bit better on defense than they had been, but with a trade off of substantially less potent offense. The 82-55 loss to Arizona in early December is a good indicator of what to expect.
March Madness Ceiling: Four out of five dentists agree that picking Colgate to the Sweet 16 would not be good for your bracket health. The Raiders put up decent fights in their previous trips to the dance, but eventually just got over-powered by superior talent. Expect more of the same.
57. Long Beach State Beach
12 of 68
Record: 21-14 (10-10 in Big West)
Star Player: LBSU's top scorer is Marcus Tsohonis, but give us double-double machine Lassina Traore. He averages 12.1 points and 10.4 rebounds per game, and he was awesome in the Big West championship victory over UC Davis, going for 25 and nine. Traore isn't much of a shot-blocker, but he has been a consistent force in the paint for the Beach.
Biggest Wins: None of them ended up being worth all that much by the end of the year, but LBSU scored road wins over USC, Michigan and DePaul during nonconference play. But the big wins came in the Big West tournament—incredibly coming with Dan Monson coaching the team just a few days after he had already been fired after 17 years on the job.
Reason to Worry: On average, Long Beach State makes four fewer three-pointers per game than it allows. That's a tough hole to climb out of on a nightly basis. And it's not like they're proficient in the two-point department, either.
March Madness Ceiling: Listen, there's playing with house money, and then there's coaching after you've already been fired. The Beach have never been more motivated, and it would be so unbelievable if they made a run to the Sweet 16. That's asking a bit much, but maybe one win is plausible.
56. Morehead State Eagles
13 of 68
Record: 26-8 (14-4 in OVC)
Star Player: After four seasons at Southeastern University where he was an NAIA All-American and racked up 2,047 points and 1,047 rebounds, Riley Minix has been an instant star for Morehead State. The 6'7" forward won Ohio Valley Player of the Year while averaging 20.8 points and 9.8 rebounds, and he has upped those numbers to 24.0 points and 11.1 rebounds in 13 games since the beginning of February.
Biggest Wins: The Eagles played 25 of their 34 games against Quad 4 opponents, so there's not much meat on the bone as far as their resume is concerned. Their best wins came against Chattanooga (NET: 140) and Little Rock (NET: 184), but their most impressive performance was a one-point loss on the road against Indiana in December.
Reason to Worry: In their only exposure against tournament-caliber teams, the Eagles lost by a combined 62 points to Purdue and Alabama in November. They rank 336th in KenPom's adjusted tempo metric, but it's unlikely they'll be able to slow down a superior opponent, and that could make for an uncomfortable game from start to finish trying to keep up.
March Madness Ceiling: It was 13 years ago that a Morehead State squad led by future NBA player Kenneth Faried upset No. 4 seed Louisville in the 2011 NCAA tournament. It would be an even bigger stunner if this year's team followed suit.
55. Charleston Cougars
14 of 68
Record: 27-7 (15-3 in CAA)
Star Player: It's probably Ante Brzovic. He was Charleston's lone representative on the All-CAA first team. But the beauty of this Cougars team is that it isn't just one or two guys leading the charge. Anyone in the primary seven-man rotation can take the reins for a while, including three-point specialist Reyne Smith.
Biggest Wins: Charleston lost at FAU in its only remotely marquee opportunity, but it did beat a handful of quality mid-majors like Saint Joseph's, Liberty and Kent State before sweeping a solid Hofstra squad in CAA play.
Reason to Worry: You wouldn't know it from their first two games in the CAA tournament, but Charleston's defense has generally been mediocre, at best. This is a solid rebounding team, and one that can make it rain from three-point range. But the majority of teams good enough to make the NCAA tournament are also going to be good enough to score at least 80 points against the Cougars.
March Madness Ceiling: This is only Charleston's third tournament appearance since 2000, but it came oh-so-close to pulling off first-round upsets in the previous two, tied with San Diego State with less than three minutes remaining last year and tied with Auburn with 90 seconds remaining in 2018. Maybe this is the year they catch fire from downtown and finally win one.
54. Vermont Catamounts
15 of 68
Record: 28-6 (15-1 in AEC)
Star Player: Tarleton State transfer Shamir Bogues won Newcomer of the Year in the America East Conference, averaging 10.9 points, 5.1 rebounds, 2.5 assists and 1.8 steals. He also took home All-Conference first team and All-Defensive team honors. The 6'4" guard is the catalyst for a stingy Catamounts defense that allowed 63.0 points per game and limited the opposition to 40.6 percent shooting.
Biggest Wins: The Catamounts beat Charleston at the Myrtle Beach Invitational in November, and that Cougars team went on to win 27 games en route to claiming the automatic bid out of the CAA, so Vermont does have a victory over an NCAA tournament team. They also blew out a 20-win Toledo squad that was the No. 1 seed in the MAC tournament by 26 points at the end of December.
Reason to Worry: Is there enough offensive firepower to hang around with a major conference contender? No one on the Vermont roster averages more than 12.2 points per game, and they rank No. 162 in KenPom's adjusted offensive efficiency. They also don't shoot the three particularly well with a 34.5 percent clip from beyond the arc, which will make it difficult to come from behind.
March Madness Ceiling: The Catamounts are dancing for the third year in a row, and they gave the Arkansas Razorbacks everything they could handle in a 75-71 loss in the 2021 NCAA tournament. There would certainly be more surprising First Round upset stories, but they remain a longshot at best to survive their opener.
53. Samford Bulldogs
16 of 68
Record: 29-5 (15-3 in SoCon)
Star Player: Achor Achor. A player so nice, they named him twice. He was big all season long for the Bulldogs, but especially in the SoCon tournament, averaging 21.7 points, 9.0 rebounds and 3.0 blocks in those three victories. He also had a 35-point double-double in Samford's most impressive win of the year.
Biggest Wins: Per KenPom, Samford only played one Tier A game, losing by 43 to Purdue. It also only played two Tier B games, losing by 10 to VCU and winning on the road against Western Carolina. It's not much, but it was their best victory—aside from the ticket-punching SoCon championship, of course.
Reason to Worry: There are some things we'll mention shortly that Samford does at a high level. However, overall, this is barely a top-75 offense and not a top-100 defense. If you can slow them down and/or handle their ball pressure, the Bulldogs are more than beatable.
March Madness Ceiling: Samford's three-point heavy, up-tempo offense and turnover-forcing defense could cause some problems. By no means is this team as good as Auburn was in 2019, but that team rode a similar approach to a Final Four. Maybe this one could ride it to a first-round upset.
52. Akron Zips
17 of 68
Record: 24-10 (13-5 in MAC)
Star Player: Enrique Freeman is averaging a double-double for the third year in a row, tallying 18.6 points and 13.0 rebounds per contest on his way to MAC Player of the Year honors. He had a second-high 30 points on Thursday, a 24-point, 21-rebound performance on Friday, and 17 points, nine rebounds and four blocks in the MAC title game on Saturday.
Biggest Wins: Two free throws from Greg Tribble with 4.8 seconds left on the clock gave the Zips a 62-61 win over Kent State and clinched the automatic bid for the Zips. A pair of Quad 2 victories over Bradley and Summit League champion South Dakota State were the biggest wins on their regular-season resume.
Reason to Worry: The Zips closed out the regular season with Quad 4 losses to Eastern Michigan and Western Michigan, and they had a tough time competing with Drake (79-59) and James Madison (73-59). They shoot just 33.0 percent from beyond the arc but take almost 25 threes per game, which could make for a lopsided game if the deep ball is not falling.
March Madness Ceiling: Akron head coach John Groce has more NCAA tournament experience than most mid-major coaches, but the Zips have their work cut out for them surviving the First Round.
51. Duquesne Dukes
18 of 68
Record: 24-11 (10-8 in A-10)
Star Player: Take your pick between Dae Dae Grant and Jimmy Clark, who combine for around 32 points per game for a team that otherwise doesn't have anyone north of 7.2 PPG. Grant is one of the best free-throw shooters in the nation—though he did shockingly miss two on Sunday—while Clark's value added on defense is a major deal for a team that thrives on that end of the floor.
Biggest Wins: Duquesne picked up a bunch of decent nonconference wins over Bradley, UC Irvine and Charleston before winning at VCU and George Mason in league play. But the biggest win was upsetting Dayton in the A-10 quarters. That was both the most impressive victory, and the one that opened the door for the Dukes to steal a bid.
Reason to Worry: Duquesne basketball is decidedly not pretty. That was true long before the rock fight that transpired in the A-10 championship, but the shooting in that game sure was a reminder of why it's hard to buy this team as a Cinderella candidate. Failing to score 70 has been quite commonplace for the Dukes.
March Madness Ceiling: Defense wins championships, and perhaps it wins a game for Duquesne. The Dukes have been hot since late January, winning 15 of their last 18 games. They won't be lacking for confidence, nor for get-after-it-ness on D. They've held their last eight opponents to 59.9 PPG and could pull off a minor shocker if that trend continues. As poor as this team shoots, though, multiple upsets is highly improbable.
50. Yale Bulldogs
19 of 68
Record: 22-9 (11-3 in Ivy League)
Star Player: Matt Knowling is the star for the day after hitting the game-winning buzzer-beater in the Ivy League championship against Brown. But the star for the year has been Danny Wolf, leading the Bulldogs in points, rebounds and blocks. (He had nine, 13 and four, respectively, in that win over Brown.)
Biggest Wins: For actual wins, the best Yale had prior to the Ivy League championship was either the home game against Princeton or the road game against Santa Clara. But if you want to talk about moral victories, the Bulldogs put up impressive fights in the road losses to Gonzaga and Kansas. The final margins both ended up being 15, but they had a real shot early in the second half of each contest.
Reason to Worry: This Yale team is a far cry from the one that upset Baylor in the first round eight years ago, particularly on the offensive glass and on defense in general. These Bulldogs do at least do a much better job about not committing turnovers, but that can only take you so far.
March Madness Ceiling: After the way Championship Week unfolded, it's a lot easier to believe Yale could reach a Sweet 16. Anything seems possible at this point. But the better Cinderella candidate out of the Ivy League would have been Princeton. Yale will probably be a one-and-done in the dance.
49. UAB Blazers
20 of 68
Record: 23-11 (12-6 in American)
Star Player: UAB has one heck of an inside-outside duo in Yaxel Lendeborg and Eric Gaines. Lendeborg is the 6'9" JUCO transfer averaging a double-double plus better than two blocks per game. Whereas Gaines is the point guard sitting north of 12 points, five assists and two steals per game. Either one can take a game over.
Biggest Wins: For a team that had just no hope of an at-large bid, UAB actually has a decent stockpile of good-not-great wins. The Blazers beat both Drake and Maryland in nonconference play before home wins over FAU and Memphis, a sweep of North Texas and a pair of wins over South Florida. The AAC didn't get much national respect this season, but that's a solid collection.
Reason to Worry: Aside from Lendeborg's blocks and Gaines' steals, UAB is atrocious on defense. We're talking "entered Selection Sunday outside the top 200 in eFG%, TO% and Dreb% on KenPom" atrocious. Most respectable foes have had little trouble getting to 75 points against the Blazers.
March Madness Ceiling: Some of the current Blazers weren't even alive when this happened, but UAB reaching the Sweet 16 by upsetting No. 1 Kentucky in the 2004 NCAA tournament will forever be burned in my brain when the Blazers are in the field. But that team was great on defense, and this one is not. Maybe Gaines and Lendeborg do some heavy lifting in an upset, though.
48. Virginia Cavaliers
21 of 68
Record: 23-10 (13-7 in ACC)
Star Player: With Kihei Clark out of the picture, Reece Beekman took a big step forward this season as Tony Bennett's lead guard. He led the Cavaliers in points, assists and steals without an even remotely close challenger in any of those categories. Though Virginia's offense as a whole leaves a lot to be desired, one could make the argument that Beekman should be ACC Player of the Year for practically dragging this team to a tournament bid.
Biggest Wins: Though UVA did not fare well away from home for most of the season, it did score a pair of crucial, nail-biting victories over Florida (neutral) and Clemson (road). The Cavaliers also clipped Wake Forest at home in a 49-47 brickfest, somehow winning a game in which they shot 1-for-11 from the free-throw line.
Reason to Worry: During the regular season, Virginia went 10-0 in games decided by single digits. But it lost nine games, getting absolutely destroyed on a pretty regular basis. This is a program that used to be very comfortable in low-scoring affairs, but it went 7-9 when held below 65 points, which happened more often than not.
March Madness Ceiling: It's plausible UVA could defend its way to a win or two. It did hold 17 of its opponents to 57 points or fewer, after all. Here's the thing, though: 15 of those 17 games came at John Paul Jones Arena, and the other two were against woebegone Louisville and West Virginia. We always say that defense travels, but for whatever reason, Virginia's hasn't this season. An immediate loss is probable.
47. North Carolina State Wolfpack
22 of 68
Record: 22-14 (9-11 in ACC)
Star Player: It's the DJ duo—DJ Horne at lead guard and D.J. Burns in the paint. What's remarkable is the big man leads the team in assists, as making sure to get him a touch down low on as many possessions as possible has been the winning formula for the Wolfpack. But when they aren't feeding Burns, Horne sure can take over by himself with nearly 100 made triples this season.
Biggest Wins: A week ago? It was a road win over Clemson and home wins over Wake Forest and Virginia. Not much worth looking at. But how about five wins in five days, including victories over Duke and North Carolina on a neutral floor? Because, against all odds, NC State just did that.
Reason to Worry: The reason NC State had to play five games to secure that auto bid is because it had lost 10 of its final 14 games, unable to stop anything on defense in most of those losses. This also generally is not a good shooting team, though it sure seemed like the Wolfpack couldn't miss against UNC Saturday.
March Madness Ceiling: I'm sorry, you expect me to put a ceiling on this team right now? After it just finished a run through Championship Week that we haven't seen since the Kemba Walker year? Realistically, the defense will probably keep them from reaching the second weekend. But if you want to bet against NC State right now, be my guest.
46. Oregon Ducks
23 of 68
Record: 23-11 (12-8 in Pac-12)
Star Player: After missing basically the entire first half of the regular season due to yet another injury, N'Faly Dante was incredible for Oregon in the second half. He scored in double figures in each of his final 17 games, including dominating in a Pac-12 tournament where the Ducks needed to win every game to punch their ticket. In addition to the points, he is a great rebounder who also generates a lot of blocks and steals. Just a total game-changer when he's on.
Biggest Wins: Prior to the Pac-12 tournament, this was a sad list. The road wins over Washington and Washington State were nice, but that's about it. But beating Arizona in the Pac-12 semifinals and then toppling Colorado in the final Pac-12 championship game was an incredible scene.
Reason to Worry: Oregon got hot this past weekend, but this has just been kind of a "mid" team all season. The defense isn't great. Perimeter shooting is average, at best. That's at least partially due to injuries and just never seeming to have a full deck, though. Maybe the Pac-12 tournament was the Ducks finally putting the pieces together. But one 52-hour stretch doesn't erase four months of mediocrity.
March Madness Ceiling: If Dante is doing his thing with both Jackson Shelstad and Jermaine Couisnard putting in work in the backcourt, let's just say lack of talent on the roster isn't why Oregon needed the auto bid to dance. The Ducks could be gearing up for a run to the Sweet 16. At any rate, goodness knows Dana Altman has gotten them there before.
45. James Madison Dukes
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Record: 31-3 (15-3 in Sun Belt)
Star Player: JMU's Terrence Edwards Jr. was named Sun Belt POY, and with good reason. He leads the Dukes in both points and assists, doing a ton of his damage from the charity stripe. He enters the dance having scored at least a dozen in 12 of his last 13 games—all wins by James Madison.
Biggest Wins: It was James Madison that initially laid the groundwork for this topsy-turvy season, going into the Breslin Center and handing then-AP No. 4 Michigan State a shocking loss on opening night. Beyond that, though, JMU's only noteworthy win was the Sun Belt championship against Arkansas State, keeping us from spending an entire week wondering whether a 30-win team could seriously get left out of the dance.
Reason to Worry: Beating Sparty was great, but that was like 133 days ago. Since then, JMU has gone 0-2 against Quads 1 and 2, swept by Appalachian State while never climbing into the KenPom top 50. The overall stats look good, but how much of that is just a product of playing 23 Q4 games?
March Madness Ceiling: Look, there are a lot of teams that only played a couple of games against Q1/Q2, but James Madison is the only one that won 31. No matter the schedule, you don't win that consistently unless you're pretty darn good. The Dukes could win a couple more.
44. McNeese State Cowboys
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Record: 30-3 (17-1 in Southland)
Star Player: TCU transfer Shahada Wells had a sensational season on both ends of the floor, averaging better than 17 points, four assists, four rebounds and three steals per game. And when it matters most, he's likely going to score way more than 17, getting to 27 in each of McNeese's Southland tournament games, 30 in the win over Michigan and well north of 30 on several other occasions.
Biggest Wins: The Cowboys had three impressive road wins over VCU, UAB and Michigan, each by double-digits. Say what you will about the Wolverines who recently fired their head coach, but that was a statement of a final nonconference win before they drove a freight train through an overmatched conference.
Reason to Worry: McNeese allows three-point attempts at the highest rate in the nation, with 48.1 percent of opponents' field-goal attempts coming from beyond the arc. Sometimes that means the opposition bricks itself into oblivion, but they've allowed at least 10 made triples on 13 occasions. The Cowboys also commit a lot of fouls while hunting steals, and don't rebound particularly well.
March Madness Ceiling: McNeese State became a Cinderella candidate pretty much from the moment it hired Will Wade a year ago. He got run out of LSU for recruiting violations, but he can coach at a high level and has built something special in a hurry. This is a legitimate "top 50 good" team that dominates the turnover battle and shoots really well from distance. The Cowboys can win tournament games. Yes, plural.
43. Northwestern Wildcats
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Record: 21-10 (12-8 in Big Ten)
Star Player: The Wildcats have one of the best guards in the country in fifth-year senior Boo Buie, who averaged 18.9 points per game and shot a blistering 43.1 percent from beyond the arc on 181 attempts. His best individual performances came in marquee wins over Purdue (31 points, 9 assists) and Illinois (29 points, 7 assists), and he was a unanimous First Team All-Big Ten selection.
Biggest Wins: The aforementioned victories over Purdue and Illinois were both hard-fought games decided by four and five points at home, and they stand as the best on a list of four Quad 1 wins by the Wildcats. They also beat Dayton and Michigan State at home, but all of those top-tier wins came before the calendar flipped to February.
Reason to Worry: The Wildcats play with one of the slowest tempos in college basketball, and that means picking apart the opposing defense in the halfcourt, so it's extremely important that they keep the ball moving. It's no surprise they went 1-5 in games where they tallied fewer than a dozen assists. They also went 0-7 in Quad 1 games away from home, so they have not proven they can beat top-caliber opponents outside of Welsh-Ryan Arena.
March Madness Ceiling: With a proven star in Buie leading the way, the Wildcats could make it out of the opening weekend if they manage to control the tempo and force the opposition to play their game. On the flip side, if they are forced to push the pace, they are 2-6 in games where they give up 75 or more points and that could mean an early exit.
42. TCU Horned Frogs
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Record: 21-12 (9-9 in Big 12)
Star Player: The name on TCU's roster that will jump out in a big way to long-time fans of college hoops is Jameer Nelson Jr. However, he's only the second-most important player for the Horned Frogs, with Emanuel Miller sitting atop that list. TCU's leading scorer and top rebounder has been in double digits in almost every game this season.
Biggest Wins: The Horned Frogs did a fantastic job of avoiding bad losses—with some help from the officials at the end of the road win over Georgetown—but didn't have all that many great victories for a 20+ win team out of the Big 12. The one-point home win over Houston and the triple-overtime road win over Baylor were fantastic results for the resume, but there wasn't any point where TCU felt like a serious threat to reach the Final Four.
Reason to Worry: In its constant pursuit of turnovers, TCU occasionally gets a little too physical or leaves passing lanes a little too wide open. And while they are good at getting steals, the Horned Frogs aren't elite in that department. The net result is a defense that has been borderline top 50 in the nation.
March Madness Ceiling: TCU is one of those classic "clean resume" teams that probably should win one game, reasonably could win two games but very likely won't last any longer than that. Unless you want to count blowing out six straight cupcakes in November, we've yet to see the Horned Frogs play particularly well for three consecutive games. So why would that suddenly happen in March?
41. Colorado State Rams
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Record: 24-10 (10-8 in MWC)
Star Player: Isaiah Stevens is electric at point guard. He averages around 17 points and seven assists per game. He isn't a volume three-point shooter, but he is lethal when he tees them up. And he's just generally one of those veteran leaders who you know is going to show up when it matters most. If the Rams hadn't lost seemingly every road game they played for the past three months, Stevens might have gotten some consideration for first-team All-American.
Biggest Wins: Without question, the one that got Colorado State onto the national radar was the 21-point neutral-site victory over Creighton on Thanksgiving. The Rams also beat Colorado at home and won neutral games against Washington and Boston College, before going 8-1 at home during MWC play. The win over Nevada in the MWC semifinals was big, too.
Reason to Worry: Yes, there were solid neutral wins early in the season, but can this team still play well outside of Fort Collins? The Rams lost all six road games against the rest of the MWC's top seven, and lost at Wyoming. They're also nothing special on defense. They haven't allowed 80 points in a game since Dec. 6, but they've only scored 80 twice in 2024. They just play slow-paced games.
March Madness Ceiling: Stevens is the type of star who can take over in March. He got kind of shut down when the Rams lost to Michigan in the first round two years ago, but it's way more likely he goes for 20 points and eight dimes than it is that he gets held to single digits again. And if he goes off, maybe Colorado State could crash the Sweet 16.
40. Florida Atlantic Owls
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Record: 25-8 (14-4 in American)
Star Player: Big man Vlad Goldin is probably Florida Atlantic's most important player, but Johnell Davis is the star who could take over March Madness once again. "Nelly" went off for 35 points in the marquee win over Arizona, and FAU is 8-0 this season (11-0 in his career) when he scores at least 21 points.
Biggest Wins: FAU had a fantastic, double-overtime, neutral-site victory over Arizona a few days before Christmas. It also won neutral-site games against Texas A&M, Butler, Virginia Tech, Loyola-Chicago and St. Bonaventure, putting together one heck of a nonconference schedule/resume after last year's run to the Final Four.
Reason to Worry: Which version of FAU shows up? The one that won one of the most entertaining games of the entire season against Arizona? Or the one that couldn't buy a bucket in terrible losses to Bryant, Florida Gulf Coast and Temple? The offense not showing up for those games was a bit fluky, but FAU's defense putting forth minimal effort has been fairly common.
March Madness Ceiling: Florida Atlantic's ceiling is sky high, but it also has a ridiculously low floor. Kind of feels inevitable that the winner of your bracket pool is going to be someone who correctly picks when the Owls bow out, because they are the ultimate wild card. They could make the Final Four again. They could give up 90 in a first-round loss. Or anything in between. Good luck.
39. Mississippi State Bulldogs
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Record: 21-13 (8-10 in SEC)
Star Player: While the world marveled over Kentucky's first-year phenoms, the freshman who led the SEC in scoring was Mississippi State's Josh Hubbard. Chris Jans didn't even put his volume-scoring shooting guard into the starting lineup until late January, but he racked up over 100 made three-pointers while averaging close to 17 points per game. And he saved his best for late, averaging 28.2 PPG over the final five games of the regular season.
Biggest Wins: True road wins were few, far between and not noteworthy. But Mississippi State did score home wins over both Tennessee and Auburn early in SEC play, and also had nonconference wins over Northwestern and Washington State on a neutral court. The gigantic one, though, was the neutral victory over Tennessee in the SEC tournament. The Bulldogs probably don't get into the dance without that one.
Reason to Worry: If you want to overlook the early bad losses to Southern and Georgia Tech and only focus on the portion of the season when the Bulldogs had a healthy Tolu Smith in the lineup, they actually only went 11-11 while at full strength, and closed out the regular season on a four-game losing streak. Beyond that, Mississippi State has some rough team-wide shooting percentages and turns the ball over more than it should.
March Madness Ceiling: If Hubbard gets into one of those grooves where he makes half a dozen triples while Smith puts together a double-double, the Bulldogs could have a chance against anyone. However, it's worth noting both of those things happened in the recent losses to Kentucky and Auburn, so it's not some magic formula for a quality win. Probably going to be a short stay in the dance.
38. Drake Bulldogs
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Record: 28-6 (16-4 in Missouri Valley)
Star Player: Tucker DeVries isn't quite Doug McDermott, but the two-time MVC POY is probably the second-best coach's kid in this conference's history. To the surprise of nobody, he was ginormous in the Arch Madness championship win over Indiana State, going for 27 points, seven rebounds and five assists. He had nearly identical lines in the first win over ISU and the December victory over Nevada.
Biggest Wins: The biggest one, of course, was the MVC championship victory over the Sycamores, if only because it kept the Bulldogs from going seven sleepless nights before finding out if they would receive an at-large bid. But between the neutral victory over Nevada, the previous win over ISU and the trio of victories over a pretty good Bradley team, Drake probably would have gotten in anyway.
Reason to Worry: Drake is the best defensive rebounding team in the country, but it is a far cry from the best defensive team in the country. In losses to Stephen F. Austin, Belmont and Northern Iowa, things really got away from the Bulldogs on that end of the floor. And the inability to defend caused them to blow an 18-point lead in the span of five minutes in the MVC title game.
March Madness Ceiling: There's a lot to like about Drake, which is more than just the DeVries Show. The Bulldogs have a really solid offense, and at least they do keep second-chance opportunities to a minimum, even if they aren't great about preventing good looks on those first chances. They could win a game or two.
37. Grand Canyon Antelopes
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Record: 29-4 (17-3 in WAC)
Star Player: There is legitimate high-major talent throughout this roster, but up top is Tyon Grant-Foster, averaging nearly 20 points per game after missing all of last season and all but 15 minutes of the previous season after he nearly died in his first game at DePaul. His return to playing at such a high level is every bit the miracle it was that Keyontae Johnson was able to do the same last year at Kansas State.
Biggest Wins: The most impressive win was the home game against San Diego State, beating an AP Top 25 opponent for the first time in program history. GCU also beat San Francisco and Louisiana Tech and won at Liberty. But the biggest win by far was in the WAC title game against UT Arlington. Even entering that game at 28-4, there was no legitimate argument for an at-large bid if the 'Lopes had lost.
Reason to Worry: Grand Canyon is a very real Cinderella candidate, but sometimes it seems to believe too much in its own hype. They do have a little bit of "Dunk City" flare—dibs on the "Slam Canyon" nickname if they go on a run to the second weekend—but they can get a little sloppy in the turnover department and will settle for ill-advised shots a bit too often.
March Madness Ceiling: Before the season even began, Grand Canyon was my pick to be this year's Florida Atlantic. That doesn't mean I'll be picking the 'Lopes to the Final Four, but I do fully believe they have the talent to pull it off.
36. South Carolina Gamecocks
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Record: 26-7 (13-5 in SEC)
Star Player: Freshman Collin Murray-Boyles got a late start to the season, contracting mononucleosis just a few days before South Carolina's first game. He missed all of November and spent the bulk of December and January gaining stamina and confidence before really starting to break out in the beginning of February. He averaged 16.0 points and 8.2 rebounds and provided solid defense over their final 10 games of the regular season and has become the star big man who could carry the Gamecocks to a few wins.
Biggest Wins: South Carolina had a mighty impressive road win over Tennessee, a stunning 17-point home win over Kentucky, a season sweep of Mississippi State and a pair of solid nonconference wins away from home over Grand Canyon and Virginia Tech.
Reason to Worry: The predictive metrics never bought into what South Carolina has been selling. And while there is absolutely value in the repeatedly demonstrated ability to win close games, ranking around 50th on KenPom all season was a product of playing too many close games (including some losses) against subpar competition and occasionally getting destroyed by a quality foe. Also, this team doesn't shoot well, nor does it force many turnovers.
March Madness Ceiling: We spent a lot of time this season comparing South Carolina to 2022 Providence, which ended up with a No. 4 seed with a minimal number of losses and run-of-the-mill predictive metrics. Might as well continue that comparison by pointing out the Friars made it to the Sweet 16 before suffering a close loss. Perhaps these Gamecocks could do the same.
35. Michigan State Spartans
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Record: 19-13 (10-10 in Big Ten)
Star Player: With Tyson Walker, A.J. Hoggard, Malik Hall and Jaden Akins all back from a team that reached the Sweet 16 last year, the Spartans entered the season with lofty expectations. Walker, a fifth-year senior, leads the team in scoring with 18.3 points per game, and he poured in 30 on 11-of-21 shooting against Indiana on Feb. 10.
Biggest Wins: Who would have guessed an 87-75 victory over Indiana State on Dec. 30 would wind up being one of Michigan State's best wins of the season? That was one of three Quad 1 victories for the Spartans, with their most impressive win coming in an 88-64 blowout against Baylor in December when they shot 63.3 percent from the floor.
Reason to Worry: The Spartans went 1-4 over their final five games during the regular season to go from comfortably in the NCAA tournament field to sweating it out on the bubble. They rank No. 9 in KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency, and they share the ball well with 16.3 assists per game, but the offense has been inconsistent all season and has struggled to string together multiple strong performances.
March Madness Ceiling: It's easy to forget that this Michigan State team started the year at No. 4 in the AP poll, and while they didn't live up to those expectations, there is far more talent on the roster than their seed suggests. Tom Izzo could still rally this group to a Sweet 16 appearance or more.
34. Clemson Tigers
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Record: 21-11 (11-9 in ACC)
Star Player: Without question, it's PJ Hall. Clemson's stretch 5 was consistently playing at a first-team All-American level early in the season, and occasionally completely took over a game during conference play. He led the Tigers in both points and blocks and has been a key source of rebounds, assists and triples.
Biggest Wins: Clemson did a lot of good in the first five weeks of the season, winning at Alabama and Pittsburgh, beating TCU on a neutral court and picking up home wins over South Carolina and Boise State that just kept looking better by the day. They also beat North Carolina in Chapel Hill, which used to be an unthinkable feat for this program.
Reason to Worry: Clemson forces turnovers at one of the lowest rates in the nation. It is also below average at both offensive rebounds and drawing fouls. Translation: the Tigers don't manufacture many points. They do at least have considerably above-average shooting percentages, but is that enough? And will it travel?
March Madness Ceiling: Clemson built up a mighty strong resume early in the year, looking like a borderline No. 1 seed in mid-December. But save for one shocking road win over UNC, this simply hasn't been the same team that started out 9-0. Losses to the likes of Miami, Georgia Tech, Notre Dame, NC State and Boston College have left this feeling like a team destined for an immediate exit.
33. Colorado Buffaloes
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Record: 24-10 (13-7 in Pac-12)
Star Player: As far as NBA draft stock is concerned, the clear answer is Cody Williams. But the correct answer is KJ Simpson, who is averaging close to 20-5-5 and isn't that far removed from the elusive 50-40-90 (FG%-3P%-FT%) club. This Buffaloes squad has battled through a bunch of injuries all season long, but Simpson has been the consistent force, not only playing in every game but regularly playing every minute in recent weeks.
Biggest Wins: At the time, we thought the 27-point shellacking of Miami was a big win, but the Hurricanes crashed and burned. Colorado won the home game against Washington State and swept Oregon, USC and Washington before beating both Utah and Washington State in the Pac-12 tournament.
Reason to Worry: Colorado has a potent offense and great rebounding on both ends of the floor, but defense is not this team's strong suit, allowing 97 and 99 in the losses to Arizona and 88 in the loss to Colorado State. The Buffaloes also have a woeful turnover margin, routinely putting themselves behind the proverbial eight ball because of it.
March Madness Ceiling: After closing the regular season on a six-game winning streak and spending the entire season in the KenPom top 40, Colorado is one of those classic "barely got in, but could be dangerous now that they're here" teams. If Williams (ankle) and Julian Hammond (knee) are both able to play and the team is at close to full strength for just about the only time all season, the Buffaloes just might be this year's shocker that crashes the Final Four.
32. Texas A&M Aggies
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Record: 20-14 (9-9 in SEC)
Star Player: Wade Taylor IV is the heart and soul of the Aggies, leading the way in points, assists and steals. He has had seven 30-plus-point performances this season, two coming in wins over Kentucky and another coming in the narrow loss to Houston.
Biggest Wins: Texas A&M beat each of Tennessee, Kentucky, Florida and Mississippi State at home during SEC play. And back in November, the Aggies scored road wins over Ohio State and SMU, as well as neutral victories over Iowa State and Penn State. Toppling Kentucky in the SEC quarters was huge, too.
Reason to Worry: This has to be one of the worst shooting teams to ever receive an at-large bid. Both Taylor and Tyrece Radford can get buckets in bunches, but not efficiently. A&M ended the regular season shooting 27.8 percent from three-point range and had a 45.1 effective field-goal percentage. If they didn't lead the nation in offensive rebounding, they'd maybe be averaging 55 points per game.
March Madness Ceiling: Texas A&M has a high individual-game ceiling, but playing well two games in a row has been a foreign concept in College Station. After what turned out to be a massive win over Iowa State, they turned around and lost by a dozen to Virginia. The first Kentucky win was immediately followed by a bad loss to Arkansas. And the 16-point statement win over Tennessee was followed by a five-game losing streak that started with a bad loss to Vanderbilt. To reach the Sweet 16, they would need to defy what has been their season-long calling card.
31. Dayton Flyers
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Record: 24-7 (14-4 in A-10)
Star Player: Some of these picks are a challenge because a lot of teams have multiple stars. But not Dayton. It's DaRon Holmes II or bust. The versatile big man was the KenPom Game MVP in literally half of Dayton's regular-season games, going for nine 20-point double-doubles while blocking quite a few shots.
Biggest Wins: Dayton's best win was probably the rivalry game against Cincinnati, getting that 82-68 victory despite allowing 20 offensive rebounds—a real testament to the Bearcats' offensive woes this season. The Flyers also had an early neutral-site victory over St. John's, and a road win over SMU that kind of surprisingly turned into a Quad 1 result.
Reason to Worry: Can they actually beat a tournament team? Dayton had a couple of quality wins away from home and played reasonably well in losses to Houston and Northwestern. However, we have yet to see the Flyers beat the caliber of opponent it would draw in the second round and beyond. Also, this is not a good rebounding team and can go ice cold on nights when Holmes is struggling.
March Madness Ceiling: Dayton's ceiling largely hinges on how Holmes is officiated. He has yet to foul out of a game this season, but he does hunt blocks and can get a little aggressive with his chicken wing in the post on offense, and a couple early fouls would be a dagger. But if he stays on the floor and this excellent three-point attack does its thing, there could be some magic here. We've seen two teams go from Dayton (First Four) to the Final Four, but maybe it's time for Dayton to get back to the Final Four for the first time since 1967.
30. Texas Longhorns
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Record: 20-12 (9-9 in Big 12)
Star Player: Big man Dylan Disu is probably the most important player to Texas' cause, but the star is the pint-sized transplant from Oral Roberts, Max Abmas. He hit the game-winner early in the year against Louisville, as well as the dagger at the end of the road win over Cincinnati. He also made quite a few buckets in between, getting up above 3,000 points in his college career.
Biggest Wins: Texas came up big on the road in league play, knocking off each of Texas Tech, TCU, Oklahoma and Cincinnati—three of the four by a double-digit margin. The Longhorns also clipped Baylor at home and smoked Oklahoma in Austin to close out the regular season.
Reason to Worry: The Longhorns are a mercurial, wildly inconsistent team, suffering six losses by double digits. Disu has nights when he dominates and others when he barely shows up or gets into early foul trouble. Tyrese Hunter has been all over the map. Dillon Mitchell vanishes far too often, as well. Abmas can't do it all, but it sometimes seems like he has to.
March Madness Ceiling: Given the true road wins they've been able to pick up over the past two-plus months, there's an argument to be made that Texas is more of a contender than a lot of the home warriors in the field. But stringing together two consecutive quality performances has been a real struggle for the Longhorns, so it would be a surprise if they make it back to the second weekend.
29. Utah State Aggies
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Record: 27-6 (14-4 in MWC)
Star Player: Great Osobor is a great big problem for opposing teams. The center who transferred in from Montana State leads the Aggies in points, rebounds and blocks, all by a wide margin. He's also second on the team in both assists and steals, demonstrating what a total package he has been in the paint.
Biggest Wins: Considering USU was completely resetting its roster under a new head coach, it understandably didn't play any top-notch games during the nonconference. It did score a pair of nice wins over UC Irvine and San Francisco, though, prior to winning the MWC outright, which included road wins over Boise State and UNLV.
Reason to Worry: Since last winning an NCAA tournament game in 2001, Utah State has lost 10 in a row, seven of them by double digits. Granted, the Aggies were a double-digit seed for all but one of those games, but maybe there's a legitimate reason that ESPN's BPI formula controversially devalues teams who play at altitude.
March Madness Ceiling: The Aggies have been exceeding expectation all season, so far be it from us to suggest they can't win a game in the Dance. But let's just say it would be a considerable surprise if this team makes it to the second weekend, considering USU is barely top 50 on KenPom despite all of its regular-season success in the six-bid Mountain West.
28. Florida Gators
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Record: 24-11 (11-7 in SEC)
Star Player: Before the season, everyone had pegged Riley Kugel as Florida's breakout sensation. But it never transpired. Instead, UC Riverside transfer Zyon Pullin has become the leader of this bunch, averaging around 15 points and five assists per game in his super senior season.
Biggest Wins: Florida scored home wins over Alabama and Auburn, which seems to be true of most quality teams that got to face the road versions of those metrics darlings. The Gators also got a road win over Kentucky, which was more impressive. Nonconference neutral wins over Pitt and Richmond also turned out to be solid. And then they went to the SEC championship, going north of 100 points in a win over Alabama for the second time this season.
Reason to Worry: Florida's defense is lacking. The field-goal percentages aren't terrible and the Gators do block a decent number of shots, but they don't force turnovers, they're below-average on the defensive glass, and the net result is a team that allowed 80 points 17 times. And that doesn't even include the brutal 79-78 season-ending loss to Vanderbilt.
March Madness Ceiling: There are always a few teams that feel good enough to be trusted to win one game, but not strong enough to be picked to reach the Sweet 16. A week ago, that felt like the case for this Gators squad. But an already great offense has really caught fire as of late, and an Elite Eight wouldn't even be a big surprise at this point.
27. Washington State Cougars
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Record: 24-9 (14-6 in Pac-12)
Star Player: Isaac Jones is maybe a little more likely to take a game over, but freshman point guard Myles Rice is the heart and soul of this Cougars team. He had to redshirt last season while battling Hodgkin lymphoma, but he has been their leader from the moment they began this successful quest to end their 16-year NCAA tournament drought.
Biggest Wins: Could we interest you in a win over Arizona? How about two of them? Wazzu had Zona's number this season, and also scored home wins over Boise State, Colorado and Utah.
Reason to Worry: As great as Rice has been, he really limped to the finish line, committing more turnovers than usual down the stretch and missing his final 22 three-point attempts of the season. This also has not been a proficient shooting team in general, going 4-7 in the 11 times it was held below 70 points.
March Madness Ceiling: There's an inherent inclination to doubt the staying power of a team that hasn't been to the NCAA tournament in a long time, especially when that team barely ranks top 50 on KenPom. But Washington State's height could cause matchup problems, like USC's did en route to the 2021 Elite Eight as a No. 6 seed, or like Florida State's did en route to the 2018 Elite Eight as a No. 9 seed. "Second Weekend Cougars" could be a thing that happens.
26. Boise State Broncos
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Record: 22-10 (13-5 in MWC)
Star Player: Were it not for SDSU's Jaedon LeDee running away with it, Boise State's Tyson Degenhart might have been the MWC POY. But Degenhart is just one of four stars for the Broncos, as Chibuzo Agbo, O'Mar Stanley and Max Rice all also average better than 12 points per game.
Biggest Wins: Boise State swept both San Diego State and New Mexico during the regular season, winning two very difficult road games in the process. The Broncos also won at Nevada, beat Colorado State at home and put together quite the stockpile of nice nonconference victories over Saint Mary's, VCU, San Francisco and North Texas.
Reason to Worry: Though this is one of the best defensive rebounding teams in the nation, Boise State's interior defense is lacking. In getting swept by Utah State, the Broncos allowed the Aggies to shoot just a shade under 60 percent from inside the arc. In the loss at Colorado State, the Rams shot almost 70 percent on deuces. Stanley will occasionally block shots, but not having a rim protector could be their undoing.
March Madness Ceiling: Cast whatever aspersions you feel the need to cast on the Mountain West in general, but you don't win at San Diego State, at New Mexico and at Nevada unless you're a team that could do some damage in March. The Broncos are 0-9 all-time in the NCAA tournament, but there's a good possibility they at least end that drought with a win.
25. Nebraska Cornhuskers
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Record: 23-10 (12-8 in Big Ten)
Star Player: After starting his college career at the JUCO level, Keisei Tominaga has developed into a star. The 6'2" guard leads the Cornhuskers offense with 14.8 points per game, and he had 31 points on the road against Illinois back in February and 30 on 12-of-17 shooting against Michigan just last week.
Biggest Wins: The Cornhuskers handed Purdue its most lopsided loss of the season in an 88-72 win on Jan. 9, holding All-American center Zach Edey to only 15 points. They also beat Wisconsin, Michigan State, Ohio State and Northwestern at home on their way to finishing third in the Big Ten standings.
Reason to Worry: Zero wins against NCAA tournament teams away from home is a troubling stat for the Cornhuskers, and their losses on the road in Big Ten play came by an average of 12.1 points. They are also one of the worst offensive rebounding teams in the field, pulling down just 9.6 second chances per game, which severely limits their margin of error on offense.
March Madness Ceiling: The Nebraska that beat Purdue and built a 15-point lead against Illinois on Saturday is more than capable of advancing out of the opening weekend. The Nebraska that lost by 22 points to a mediocre Maryland team and ended up blowing that 15-point lead on Saturday could be one-and-done. Which Nebraska will show up?
24. Nevada Wolf Pack
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Record: 26-7 (13-5 in MWC)
Star Player: Jarod Lucas is Nevada's leading scorer and the one with that "Marshall Henderson" gene, most likely to show up on SportsCenter for letting out a guttural scream after a big bucket. He scored at least 18 points in each of his final eight regular-season games and could be the catalyst for a big run if he stays hot.
Biggest Wins: The top six teams in the Mountain West largely built up impressive resumes by just beating each other up, but Nevada also had a pair of quality wins prior to January, beating TCU in Hawaii and scoring a road victory over Washington. And in league play, the Wolf Pack swept Colorado State and won road games against Utah State, Boise State and UNLV.
Reason to Worry: Beyond the standard "Mountain West teams almost always lose early" concerns, Nevada can get a little too comfortable with letting its opponents shoot threes. From a percentage point of view, the Wolf Pack are well above average. But how much of that is dumb luck? They allow a lot of open looks from the perimeter and don't force many turnovers.
March Madness Ceiling: Of all the Mountain West teams in the Dance, Nevada arguably has the highest ceiling. The Wolf Pack finished hot, winning 10 of their final 11 regular-season games. They have three legitimate leaders in Lucas, Kenan Blackshear and Nick Davidson. And there's just a lot of green on their KenPom profile. This program has never been to an Elite Eight, but it's plausible.
23. New Mexico Lobos
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Record: 26-9 (10-8 in MWC)
Star Player: Pick a guard, really. Jaelen House and Jamal Mashburn Jr. are the veterans who have been really good for three years running in the desert. But when those veteran leaders were injured early in the season, it paved the way for sophomore Donovan Dent to blossom into a star. Any of the trio could go for 30.
Biggest Wins: Sweeping Nevada was swell, but a lack of marquee wins was why the Lobos spent most of the year on the bubble. Aside from that road win over the Wolf Pack, almost all of their damage was done at home, beating each of San Diego State, Utah State, Colorado State and UC Irvine at The Pit. Until the MWC tournament, that is, storming through Boise State, Colorado State and San Diego State to secure a bid.
Reason to Worry: New Mexico simply doesn't have great shooting percentages. This team is lethal if it can get out in transition for easy buckets, and it certainly has dudes who can drain mid-range jumpers. Nevertheless, the Lobos rank well outside the top 100 in each of three-point, two-point and free-throw percentage. And they don't defend well enough to consistently make up for that.
March Madness Ceiling: For much of the season, New Mexico was my sleeper pick for the Final Four. With the way the Lobos played late in the regular season, I was ready to completely bail on that...until the Mountain West tournament. Just when I thought I was out, they pull me back in. UNM to the F4 could happen.
22. Texas Tech Red Raiders
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Record: 23-10 (11-7 in Big 12)
Star Player: For the full season, it's Pop Isaacs. But sophomore forward Darrion Williams has been a force of nature over the past few weeks. He shot 12-for-12 from the field in Texas Tech's blowout victory over Kansas, and he closed out the regular season with 10 consecutive games scoring at least a dozen points—most of them with at least eight rebounds, too. (Williams missed Friday's Big 12 semifinal with an ankle injury. His tournament status is TBD.)
Biggest Wins: Like so many other Big 12 teams this season, nothing worth mentioning from November or December. But the Red Raiders beat BYU, Texas and Oklahoma in storming out to a 5-1 start in league play, and later added victories over Kansas and TCU en route to an impressive winning conference record. They also trounced BYU in the Big 12 quarters.
Reason to Worry: This isn't the Texas Tech from 2018 to '22 that could grind you to a pulp on defense. In fact, the Red Raiders are kind of not good on that end of the floor this season, allowing at least 75 points in each of their losses, as well as four of their wins. They also have not been anything special on the glass, especially as of late with big man Warren Washington limited by a foot injury.
March Madness Ceiling: Under Grant McCasland, Texas Tech has become a much more three-point-dependent team than ever before. But why not when you've got five guys who can stroke it at a high level? If Isaacs and Joe Toussaint are making those shots, the Red Raiders can beat just about anyone. But since the beginning of February, they've been cold more often than hot and would be fortunate to reach the Sweet 16.
21. BYU Cougars
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Record: 23-10 (10-8 in Big 12)
Star Player: BYU doesn't really have a singular star. What it has is seven players averaging at least nine points per game, most of whom do a fair amount of their damage from three-point range. But if there's one player the Cougars need to show up, it's probably Spencer Johnson, who leads the team in both rebounds and steals while ranking fourth in points and third in assists. Though, of the bunch, he's their worst three-point shooter.
Biggest Wins: For as much as we've griped about BYU's weak nonconference schedule, the Cougars did pick up a nice early home win over San Diego State. And then in their first year in the Big 12, they won at Kansas and scored home wins over Baylor, Iowa State, TCU and Texas. May well be the most impressive collection of wins this program has ever carried into the Dance.
Reason to Worry: With more than half of their field-goal attempts coming from distance, BYU lives and dies by the three like no other. But the Cougars aren't actually all that great from the perimeter, shooting 35 percent as a team. And while they are 23-2 when shooting at least 32 percent from downtown, they've gone 0-8—with some ugly losses, no less—when falling short of that mark.
March Madness Ceiling: Maybe they get hot and stay hot on a run to the Final Four. However, with only one of their key wins coming away from home—and with Kansas' Kevin McCullar Jr. notably absent for that game—it's a little difficult to believe the Cougars can or will maintain that type of fire in neutral settings. A rare trip to the Sweet 16 is well within reason, though.
20. Saint Mary's Gaels
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Record: 26-7 (15-1 in WCC)
Star Player: With Logan Johnson graduating after last season, Saint Mary's needed a new lead guard. And Augustas Marciulionis answered the call in a big way, blossoming from sixth man on the 2022-23 team to West Coast Conference Player of the Year this season. He's not really the type of star who will individually take over a game, but he's so instrumental to everything the Gaels do.
Biggest Wins: For the first time since 2015-16, Saint Mary's won two games against Gonzaga in a single season, both of them coming away from home. The Gaels also swept a respectable San Francisco squad, won at Colorado State, beat New Mexico at home and won a neutral game against UNLV.
Reason to Worry: Though they managed to win the WCC tournament without him, losing Joshua Jefferson to a season-ending knee injury in mid-February was a huge blow for a team that doesn't run deep. (They only played six guys in the championship against Gonzaga.) Saint Mary's is also one of the worst free-throw shooting teams in the field.
March Madness Ceiling: After starting out 3-5, Saint Mary's won 23 of its final 25 games. The Gaels often couldn't buy a bucket in the first month of the regular season, but they snapped out of that funk and became a team that legitimately could have some staying power in the Dance. Let's not forget, before Alex Ducas' back seized up in last year's tournament, Saint Mary's was right in that second-round game against eventual national champion UConn. Maybe this team could make its second Sweet 16 in the past six decades.
19. Wisconsin Badgers
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Record: 22-13 (11-9 in Big Ten)
Star Player: Wisconsin found its star through the transfer portal last offseason, reeling in former Top 100 recruit AJ Storr after he earned Big East All-Freshman honors at St. John's. The 6'6" guard leads the team with 16.6 points per contest, and he racked up a career-high 30 points against Northwestern on Friday.
Biggest Wins: The Badgers ripped off a 15-2 stretch that spanned from mid-November through the end of January, peaking at No. 6 in the AP poll. That run included a win over then-No. 3 Marquette on Dec. 2, which stood as the team's most impressive victory before they upended Purdue in the Big Ten tournament semifinals on Saturday, coming away with a 76-75 win in overtime.
Reason to Worry: The same team that went 15-2 also stumbled through a 3-8 stretch of games to close out the regular season, which speaks to the overall inconsistency they face heading into March Madness. They don't like to push the tempo and they don't rebound particularly well, which could set them up for some less-than-ideal matchups.
March Madness Ceiling: The Badgers have looked more like that team that was once Top 10 in the nation this week at the Big Ten tournament, and the Purdue win certainly made a statement. A trip to the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2017 is well within reach.
18. Alabama Crimson Tide
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Record: 21-11 (13-5 in SEC)
Star Player: Point guard Mark Sears has had a phenomenal bounce-back/breakout season for Alabama. He was solid last year, but there was no question he was the second fiddle to Brandon Miller. Now that he's the main cog in the machine, he's back to putting up numbers on par with what he did as a sophomore at Ohio. Except now he's doing it against real competition.
Biggest Wins: Alabama split with Auburn with each rival winning its home game. The Crimson Tide also picked up a solid road win over Mississippi State and home victories over Florida, South Carolina, Texas A&M and Indiana State. Nothing particularly great, but a nice stockpile of good wins.
Reason to Worry: After an entire season spent in the KenPom top 15, are we even sure Alabama can beat a quality opponent? Even in splitting with Auburn, we're talking about a four-point home win and an 18-point road loss. And that's just one of six pretty lopsided losses this team has taken. The metrics have loved the Tide for their offense, but the defense is liable to get smashed within the first weekend of the Dance.
March Madness Ceiling: With Sears and Aaron Estrada co-running the offense, Alabama can defeat anyone. We're talking about a team that almost beat Purdue on a neutral floor and almost beat Creighton in Omaha. But the ceiling feels pretty low because of a defense that ranks around 100th in the nation. It would actually be a bit shocking if this team reaches the Final Four.
17. San Diego State Aztecs
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Record: 24-10 (11-7 in MWC)
Star Player: Jaedon LeDee has been a breakout sensation for the Aztecs, scoring more points this season than he did in the previous four combined en route to becoming the obvious choice for Mountain West POY. He scored at least 21 in each of his first five games and never really let up from there, reaching double digits in every game that he played.
Biggest Wins: The Aztecs caught Saint Mary's early in the year when it was a hot mess, destroying the Gaels by 25 on a neutral court. They also won by double digits at Gonzaga in late December, which I didn't realize was allowed to happen. It was the Zags' first loss by 10-plus at the Kennel since an 85-74 L against Illinois in December 2012. And in MWC play, SDSU won its home games against Nevada, Colorado State, Utah State and New Mexico.
Reason to Worry: Nothing new here as it pertains to San Diego State, but this team simply doesn't shoot well. The Aztecs are especially not good from distance, roughly 300th in the nation in three-point percentage, and a good deal worse in that department than they typically have been with Brian Dutcher at the helm.
March Madness Ceiling: The Aztecs really limped to the finish line, going 8-7 in their final 15 regular-season games and struggling to score away from home, no matter the foe. A repeat run to the national championship game felt a lot more plausible in early January than it does here in mid-March. But they could lean on LeDee and their defense in the process of at least reaching the second weekend again—which, prior to last season, was the best one could hope for from a Mountain West team.
16. Gonzaga Bulldogs
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Record: 25-7 (14-2 in WCC)
Star Player: A little over a month ago, the pick here might have been Anton Watson. But Graham Ike was awesome down the stretch, going for at least 20 in each of his final seven regular-season games, re-emerging as the unstoppable force in the paint that he was two years ago at Wyoming before his leg injury. If he gets going (and stays out of foul trouble), Gonzaga's ceiling rises.
Biggest Wins: Also a little over a month ago, it would've been tough to come up with an answer here. Gonzaga was woefully lacking for quality wins until getting a huge one at Rupp Arena in mid-February. The Bulldogs proceeded to win road games against San Francisco and Saint Mary's. And while none were individually impressive, the collection of neutral-site wins over Syracuse, UCLA and USC from the first month of the season is at least worth mentioning.
Reason to Worry: Gonzaga's defense isn't great. That was also true of last year's Elite Eight team, but it almost buried them then. Were it not for both Drew Timme's heroics and short-handed opponents, they don't eke out those three-point wins over TCU and UCLA to make that run. And this year's Zags are considerably worse from three-point range.
March Madness Ceiling: They've been hot lately and they've made it at least to the Sweet 16 in eight consecutive NCAA tournaments. There's no good reason to say the Zags couldn't make another second-weekend appearance. But after quite a few straight years of all of us saying, "Maybe this is the Mark Few team that finally wins it all," it doesn't feel like that's on the table this year.
15. Baylor Bears
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Record: 23-10 (11-7 in Big 12)
Star Player: Six Bears average at least 10 points per game, but Toledo transfer RayJ Dennis is the one at the epicenter of it all, doling out around seven assists per game for this three-point-draining machine of an offense. Dennis has also been Baylor's top source of steals, albeit not at anything close to a league-leading rate.
Biggest Wins: As far as the predictive metrics are concerned, the season-opening neutral-site victory over Auburn was probably Baylor's best of the year. The Bears also won home games against Kansas, Iowa State, BYU, Texas and Texas Tech in league play. Not much in the way of quality true road wins, but they did almost win at Kansas and at Texas.
Reason to Worry: While it would be a bit much to say that Baylor is poor on defense, that end of the floor is nowhere near the strength for the Bears that it was during the national championship run three years ago. They've allowed at least 75 points on 13 occasions, this despite playing at a below-average tempo. It also bears mentioning that two of their most important players (Ja'Kobe Walter and Yves Missi) are freshmen.
March Madness Ceiling: Baylor rode an elite three-point attack to the 2021 title, and this team is every bit at potent from distance. If Walter, Jalen Bridges and Co. can get hot from distance, anything is possible. But with a run-of-the-mill defense, anything more than the Elite Eight might be a pipe dream.
14. Creighton Bluejays
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Record: 23-9 (14-6 in Big East)
Star Player: Creighton is kind of a three-headed force in Trey Alexander, Ryan Kalkbrenner and Baylor Scheierman, but the singular star is Scheierman. He's the top scorer, the top rebounder, the primary three-point weapon and a major source of assists. He's not quite at any of these marks, but if he gets north of each of 600 points, 300 rebounds and 150 assists, he's going to join Ben Simmons as the only major-conference player to pull off that line in more than three decades.
Biggest Wins: Creighton put a big feather in its cap with a 19-point home victory over Connecticut in late February. The Jays also eked out a home win over Alabama, pretty comfortably won the home game against Marquette (sans Tyler Kolek) and put a 29-point thumping on Nebraska on the road in that in-state rivalry. Creighton put up at least 85 points in all four of those wins (and in quite a few others).
Reason to Worry: Creighton both forces turnovers and draws fouls at one of the worst rates in the country. This is also not a good offensive rebounding team. As a result, it doesn't manufacture points and allows nearly six more field-goal attempts per game than it takes. Nearly blowing a 22-point lead in the season finale against Villanova was a stark reminder of how quickly things can unravel for the Bluejays if the threes stop falling.
March Madness Ceiling: The Bluejays have always been a three-point-oriented team, but never quite to this extreme, taking nearly 50 percent of their shots from distance. But if they get and stay hot, anything is possible. While they aren't nearly as good overall as that 2017-18 Villanova team was, the Jays could follow that same blueprint of just shooting the lights out for three weeks en route to a title.
13. Duke Blue Devils
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Record: 24-8 (15-5 in ACC)
Star Player: Jared McCain came on strong in the second half of the season, but the choice here is pretty clearly still Kyle Filipowski. Duke's 7-footer hasn't been quite the National Player of the Year candidate that we were anticipating in the preseason, but he has had a mighty fine sophomore season, leading the Blue Devils in points, rebounds and blocks while also drastically increasing his assist rate and three-point percentage.
Biggest Wins: For a team that spent most of the year in the AP Top 10, there's really not much here. The neutral win over Baylor still looks great, and the neutral win over Michigan State bears mentioning. But the Blue Devils lost both games against UNC and didn't play on the road against Clemson, Virginia or Wake Forest, so it's been a hot minute since they scored a particularly impressive win.
Reason to Worry: The metrics look great and they never outright lay an egg in a loss, but it just feels like something's missing with this team, doesn't it? They don't have that usual Duke swagger or toughness. And with a 2-7 record in games decided by seven points or fewer, the Blue Devils might fold under the pressure in March.
March Madness Ceiling: 'Reason to Worry' aside, this is still Duke we're talking about, and a Duke team that has ranked top 20 on KenPom all season. The Blue Devils may not be a top candidate to win it all, but that's certainly their ceiling if everything goes well with their quintet of double-digit scorers.
12. Auburn Tigers
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Record: 27-7 (13-5 in SEC)
Star Player: Because he only plays about 25 minutes per game, Johni Broome doesn't get the type of national love he deserves. Even with the limited playing times, he had 11 double-doubles during the regular season, averaging about 26 points, 13 rebounds, four blocks and four assists per 40 minutes. As far as KenPom is concerned, Broome is easily a top-five player in the country.
Biggest Wins: Auburn ended the regular season with just one Quad 1 win, at home against Alabama. The Tigers did also have a ton of Quad 2 wins, most notably the home victories over Mississippi State, South Carolina and Texas A&M. And they did go on an impressive run to win the SEC tournament.
Reason to Worry: In addition to the limited quality wins, Auburn is routinely too physical on defense, rewarding its opponent with 30 or more free-throw attempts on a regular basis. The trade-off is that the Tigers get a ton of blocks and have one of the best defensive effective field-goal percentages in the nation. But it's worrisome like a pitcher who gets a little too comfortable dishing out walks in pursuit of strikeouts.
March Madness Ceiling: Auburn has a serious "2022 Houston Cougars" vibe going on, light on quality wins, but with great defense and outstanding predictive metrics that suggest they should be able to beat anyone in the country. That Houston team made it to the Elite Eight and could've gone further if not for a 1-of-20 three-point effort in an ugly 50-44 loss to Villanova. Maybe Auburn can complete the journey Houston began.
11. Kansas Jayhawks
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Record: 22-10 (10-8 in Big 12)
Star Player: This was a tossup between Hunter Dickinson and Kevin McCullar Jr. for the first three months of the season, but Dickinson has been the clear anchor with McCullar regularly missing games as of late. The transfer from Michigan has been a double-double machine for the Jayhawks, as well as a solid source of blocks and the occasional triple. But will he be healthy?
Biggest Wins: Pretty hard to argue with Kansas' collection of marquee victories. The Jayhawks won home games against Houston, Connecticut and Baylor, and also won neutral-site games against Tennessee and Kentucky. It would've been great to see them do more outside of Phog Allen at any point since Thanksgiving, but they've certainly shown they can beat anyone.
Reason to Worry: Lack of depth was already a major concern for Kansas, and it has really been a problem over the past month-plus with McCullar in and out of the lineup with a knee injury and now Dickinson dealing with a shoulder injury. But even if they're good to go for the Dance, is Dajuan Harris a Final Four-caliber point guard? Or can freshman wing Johnny Furphy be trusted to show up in a big way after just half a season in the starting lineup?
March Madness Ceiling: Maybe the biggest X-factor in the entire tournament is the health of Kansas. If McCullar and Dickinson can perform at the mutually unstoppable level they were at for the first two months of the season, Kansas can win it all. But if neither is right and they look tentative out there—or miss games altogether—an early exit wouldn't be much of a surprise.
10. Illinois Fighting Illini
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Record: 26-8 (14-6 in Big Ten)
Star Player: Terrence Shannon Jr. was virtually unstoppable on Saturday against Nebraska, pouring in a career-high 40 points while driving to the basket at will, and his elite athleticism and quickness makes him a matchup nightmare. That said, it's a testament to the depth on this Illini roster that they beat Michigan State and Northwestern while he was suspended earlier this year.
Biggest Wins: Illinois had seven Quad 1 wins, and the best of the bunch was a 91-83 victory on the road against Wisconsin earlier this month that was part of an 8-2 stretch. Outside of their 14-6 showing in conference play, they also had a 98-89 victory over Florida Atlantic in December that looked like an early showcase of two potential Final Four contenders.
Reason to Worry: The Illinois defense ranks near the bottom of the tournament field in turnovers forced (10.9, 267th overall) and steals (4.3, 351st), and the Illini check in 81st in KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency. They have one of the best offenses in the country, but they were not able to outgun Tennessee, Marquette or Purdue when they squared off against elite competition.
March Madness Ceiling: The Illini have looked like a Final Four-caliber team at various points this season, but they have enough question marks on the defensive end to make it difficult to fully buy them as title contenders. That said, a deep tournament run would be far from a shocker.
9. Marquette Golden Eagles
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Record: 25-9 (14-6 in Big East)
Star Player: No debate to be had here. Marquette's star is clearly do-it-all point guard Tyler Kolek. It almost doesn't seem possible that he has yet to record a triple-double in his college career, but this 40 percent three-point shooter does have six points-assists double-doubles this season, completely taking over games on a semi-regular basis. Though, as we'll touch on shortly, he is a gigantic unknown heading into the Dance.
Biggest Wins: The Golden Eagles made quite the early pair of statements, winning a true road game against Illinois and pretty comfortably beating Kansas in Maui. A couple of weeks after that, they smoked Texas by a 21-point margin. And in Big East play, they scored home wins over Creighton, Providence and Seton Hall and swept both St. John's and Villanova.
Reason to Worry: Marquette is kind of a terrible rebounding team and has kind of a terrible three-point defense. In their eight regular-season losses, the Golden Eagles finished a combined minus-77 in rebound margin with those foes averaging 10-for-25 from distance. As great as this offense can be, those are huge hurdles to overcome.
March Madness Ceiling: Well, how healthy is Kolek? Marquette's statistical and emotional leader missed the final three games of the regular season as well as the Big East tournament with an oblique injury, and the Golden Eagles weren't quite the same without him. But he was playing at less than full strength for those early wins over Illinois and Kansas, so as long as he's on the floor, you've got to like Marquette's chances in any game. This team has championship potential if he's good to go.
8. Kentucky Wildcats
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Record: 23-9 (13-5 in SEC)
Star Player: The top scorer is Antonio Reeves and the "wise beyond his years" steady leader is freshman Reed Sheppard, but the Kentucky Wildcat most likely to take over a game and produce a few unforgettable March moments is Rob Dillingham. When Dilly starts cooking with gas, you just get the heck out of the way and enjoy the show.
Biggest Wins: You're not going to find many collections of top-end wins better than Kentucky's. The Wildcats won at Tennessee and at Auburn, beat North Carolina on a neutral floor and pounded Alabama by 22 at Rupp Arena. They also swept a pretty good Mississippi State team, reaching 90 in both of those contests.
Reason to Worry: Are they going to play defense? Like, even a little bit? There was a two-game stretch in mid-February in which the 'Cats relentlessly clamped down on Ole Miss and Auburn. It felt like they were finally engaged on that end of the floor and maybe the favorite to win it all if they kept it up. Then they gave up 95, 89 and 102 in consecutive wins, and they might be a little too content again with simply trying to win every game on offense.
March Madness Ceiling: Kentucky's championship potential is undeniable, regardless of what history says about needing an adjusted defensive efficiency rank in the top 50 or so before the tournament begins. There's plenty of evidence to show this team can score like there's no tomorrow against any foe, and we have seen the Wildcats buy in on defense just often enough to hope they'll be invested on that end of the floor in the Dance.
7. Iowa State Cyclones
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Record: 27-7 (13-5 in Big 12)
Star Player: If forced to choose between Keshon Gilbert and Tamin Lipsey, let's go with Lipsey, who has been the more impenetrable force on defense. But this backcourt tandem averages around 25 points, 10 assists, 10 rebounds and five steals per game, and either one can lead the way on any given day.
Biggest Wins: Let's not talk about the nonconference schedule, but Iowa State sure did rack up some solid victories in Big 12 play. The Cyclones' first league win was the home game against Houston. They proceeded to go undefeated at home with wins over Kansas, BYU and more. They also had solid road wins over Texas, TCU and Cincinnati. And in the Big 12 tournament, they steamrolled through Kansas State, Baylor and Houston, winning each game by double digits.
Reason to Worry: Iowa State has one of the best turnover-forcing defenses in the country, averaging better than 10 steals per game. But against backcourts capable of handling that pressure and limiting fast-break opportunities for the Cyclones, they're nowhere near as impressive. Moreover, that ball-hawking approach sometimes gets a little too aggressive, resulting in wide-open three-point looks for the opposition. And when ISU has fewer steals than three-point buckets allowed, it is 1-5.
March Madness Ceiling: Iowa State can beat anyone and undeniably has championship potential. The question is going to be the draw, and how deep the Cyclones can get without running into a team that can win the turnover battle. They also need to avoid the type of complete offensive disaster that plagued them in the 59-41 first-round loss in last year's tournament, but their offense has been considerably better than it was a year ago.
6. Arizona Wildcats
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Record: 25-8 (15-5 in Pac-12)
Star Player: UNC transfer Caleb Love has been such a massive pickup for Tommy Lloyd and the Wildcats. He's still every bit the ball hog that he was in Chapel Hill. In fact, on a per 100 possessions basis, he's actually shooting a little more often than he did last year. But he has been a much more efficient volume shooter, as well as a better rebounder and defender than he ever was with the Tar Heels. He legitimately could be an All-American.
Biggest Wins: It didn't take long for Arizona to announce itself as a title contender, winning at Duke a whole five days into the regular season. The Wildcats proceeded to smash both Alabama and Wisconsin, beat Michigan State on a neutral floor and swept both Utah and Colorado in league play.
Reason to Worry: This team just straight up decides not to show up sometimes, particularly in the "perimeter defense" department. And beware the off night from Kylan Boswell. Arizona went a perfect 18-0 during the regular season when he posted an O-rating of 95 or better, but the Wildcats are liable to lose to anyone when the sophomore point guard has a dud—which he does at least once every two weeks or so.
March Madness Ceiling: After the losses to Stanford, Washington State and Oregon State, the worm turned on Arizona's national perception, going from a title favorite to a team that could lose to a No. 15 seed for the second straight year. But this is still a very good team that could win it all. And don't forget: The 2024 Final Four is in Glendale, Arizona.
5. North Carolina Tar Heels
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Record: 27-7 (17-3 in ACC)
Star Player: Depends on the game, right? RJ Davis has been the star most consistently, possibly headed for an 800-point campaign. But Armando Bacot, Harrison Ingram and Cormac Ryan have all had huge nights in big wins, too. Not too many teams have four players who can legitimately carry their team to victory, but the Heels do.
Biggest Wins: In addition to a regular-season sweep of Duke, the Tar Heels had a very impressive 100-point effort in an early win over Tennessee. They also won road games against Clemson, Pitt and Virginia and had solid home victories over Oklahoma and Wake Forest.
Reason to Worry: Maybe "Worry" is a bit much, but it is noteworthy that North Carolina doesn't force many turnovers. The Heels typically defend and rebound at a high level, but top-tier opponents have consistently been able to put up points against them, with Duke (two games), Tennessee, Connecticut and Kentucky combining to average 85.8 points. (They do, however, force turnovers at a slightly higher rate than they did two years ago, which did not stop them from reaching the title game.)
March Madness Ceiling: North Carolina has not ranked top five on KenPom at any point in this entire season, but it has felt for a while now like the Tar Heels are one of the five biggest threats to win it all. If Davis gets into one of his grooves or if Bacot can go on a double-double rampage in the tournament like he did two years ago—you know I have to say it—"the ceiling is the roof."
4. Tennessee Volunteers
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Record: 24-8 (14-4 in SEC)
Star Player: Purdue's Zach Edey is going to win National Player of the Year, but Tennessee's Dalton Knecht might be the brightest star in the country. The leader of the Volunteers has had five 35-point performances this season, and we're not talking about cupcakes. He dropped 37 on UNC in Chapel Hill, 39 against both Auburn and Florida and a 40 burger in the regular-season finale against Kentucky. He's averaging better than 26 per game since getting all the way back from his sprained ankle.
Biggest Wins: Tennessee swept Alabama, won at Kentucky, South Carolina and Wisconsin, and won home games against Illinois and Auburn. If you have doubts about the Vols, it's certainly not because they haven't beaten anybody.
Reason to Worry: *Taps the 'Rick Barnes never wins in March' sign.* There are some rational concerns about Tennessee's shooting percentages and the fact that it has allowed more than 75 points an alarming number of times for what is an extremely efficient defense. But it's the irrational concern about Barnes' career-long propensity for early exits that might make you think twice about penciling this team in for a trip to Phoenix.
March Madness Ceiling: Tennessee could win a national championship. That was also true about last year's team before Zakai Zeigler suffered a torn ACL in late February, but now that they have him back alongside an alpha scorer in Knecht, the sky's the limit for the Volunteers.
3. Houston Cougars
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Record: 30-4 (15-3 in Big 12)
Star Player: You would think the lead guard of the No. 1 team in the AP poll would be a lock for a lot of national attention, but Jamal Shead has kind of flown below the radar as a possible first-team All-American. That's in large part because it wasn't until more than two months into the season that he really took the reins as the go-to star of this offense, but he has been fantastic on both ends of the floor all year.
Biggest Wins: Two years removed from not getting their first Q1 win of the season until literally Selection Sunday, life in the Big 12 has given the Cougars drastically more opportunities to strut their stuff against quality competition. And they've capitalized, winning at least one game against every team in the best league in the country. Houston also scored Q1 wins over Dayton, Utah, Texas A&M and Xavier in nonconference play.
Reason to Worry: Plain and simple, Houston doesn't shoot well. We're talking both an effective field-goal percentage below the national average and a team-wide free-throw percentage hovering around 300th in the nation. Despite averaging nearly a dozen more field-goal attempts per game than they allow—thanks to their incredible offensive rebounding and defensive prowess—getting to 70 points is often a struggle.
March Madness Ceiling: While the shooting woes are a legitimate concern, there's no question Houston can win a national championship. The whole "Yeah, but how would they fare in a real conference?" narrative from yesteryear is no longer in play, as the Cougars were pretty great throughout the Big 12 grind. They never did quite win one during the Phi Slama Jama days, but perhaps this program's seventh trip to the Final Four will finally be the one that results in a title.
2. Purdue Boilermakers
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Record: 29-4 (17-3 in Big Ten)
Star Player: Zach Edey recorded his 24th double-double with a 28-point, 11-rebound game in a loss to Wisconsin on Saturday, and the defending National Player of the Year remains one of the faces of college basketball. The 7'4", 285-pound center demands constant attention from opposing defenses, averaging 24.4 points on 61.9 percent shooting, and he is a big reason the Boilermakers have been able to shoot 41.0 percent from beyond the arc.
Biggest Wins: The Boilermakers ripped off three wins in three days against Gonzaga, Tennessee and Marquette to win the Maui Invitational, and they added neutral-site wins over Alabama and Arizona before conference play started. All told, they finished 12-4 in Quad 1 contests, and there is not a bad loss on their resume.
Reason to Worry: It's Purdue. They were upset as a No. 4 seed in the first round in 2021, they lost to Cinderella story Saint Peter's in 2022, and they became just the second No. 1 seed ever to fall to a No. 16 seed when they lost to Fairleigh Dickinson a year ago. This team is stacked, but that recent history is difficult to ignore.
March Madness Ceiling: There is no doubt Purdue has the potential to win the national championship. With Edey as consistent as they come on the inside and an elite collection of perimeter shooters on the outside, their offense is elite. They have already beaten a wide variety of top-tier opponents this year, and recent history should give them a chip on their shoulder that will keep them from underestimating any opponent.
1. Connecticut Huskies
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Record: 31-3 (18-2 in Big East)
Star Player: There's no clear choice here, which is largely why Connecticut is so dangerous. Tristen Newton is the nightly triple-double threat leading the way in points and assists. But Donovan Clingan is the wrecking ball in the paint. Cam Spencer is the three-point sniper and foremost trash-talker. Stephon Castle is the young stud. Alex Karaban can do everything. And Hassan Diarra might be the stickiest glue guy in the country. It's just so hard to imagine this entire team having an off night.
Biggest Wins: UConn wasted little time in announcing its intention to repeat as national champions, beating each of North Carolina, Gonzaga, Texas and Indiana by double digits away from home during nonconference play. The Huskies proceeded to go 21-2 in a very good Big East, if you include the three wins they got while securing the conference tournament title.
Reason to Worry: What's a little troubling about the title favorite is that its least efficient shooter is the one taking the most shots. Newton is a great lead guard who arguably should be a first-team All-American, but he also barely makes 40 percent of his double-digit field-goal attempts per game. If he tries to just shoot his way through a cold start, things could go sideways.
March Madness Ceiling: There's no ceiling here. UConn is the team to beat, and has been for pretty much the entire season. The only real question was in the first couple months when the team was without Castle and/or Clingan because of injury. But it always felt like the Huskies would be the pick if they were at full strength heading into the Dance. And they are.
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