2024 Men's NCAA Tournament Bracket: Preseason Projection of the Field of 68
It has been seven long months since the Connecticut Huskies steamrolled their way to the fifth national championship in program history, and we are beyond ready for the beginning of the 2023-24 men's college basketball season.
And you know what that means...
It's preseason NCAA tournament projection o'clock!
I won't lie to you fine folks: Most of the "research" that went into the seeding for this bracket was aggregating some of the many team rankings already put out by other people/computers. While it's not exactly an average of KenPom, Haslametrics, BartTorvik, Matt Norlander's Top 100 And 1 and the preseason AP poll, the average of those five rankings was our starting point, from which manual adjustments were made here and there.
But let's be honest, preseason brackets are a total shot in the dark anyway.
After putting way more thought into the seeding for last year's preseason projection, our No. 3 overall seed (North Carolina) missed the tournament, and we whiffed on both No. 2 seed Marquette and No. 3 seed Kansas State entirely. And that may well have been a more accurate projection than most Novembers.
One other note: After a solid decade of following more or less the same region-by-region template, we're shaking up the format this year. Do please let us know in the comments if you prefer this new conference-by-conference approach. (Our usual Last Five In / First Five Out sections will be added after the projected bracket once we get a few weeks into the season.)
The Projected Bracket
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EAST REGION (Boston)
Charlotte, NC
No. 1. Duke vs. No. 16 Iona
No. 8 Colorado vs. No. 9 Ohio State
Pittsburgh, PA
No. 4 Florida Atlantic vs. No. 13 UNC-Greensboro
No. 5 Kentucky vs. No. 12 Drake
Memphis, TN
No. 3 Texas vs. No. 14 Appalachian State
No. 6 UCLA vs. No. 11 Clemson/Indiana
Brooklyn, NY
No. 2 Connecticut vs. No. 15 Vermont
No. 7 Maryland vs. No. 10 Missouri
MIDWEST REGION (Detroit)
Indianapolis, IN
No. 1 Purdue vs. No. 16 Howard/Wagner
No. 8 Virginia vs. No. 9 Iowa State
Pittsburgh, PA
No. 4 Texas A&M vs. No. 13 Liberty
No. 5 Baylor vs. No. 12 Charleston
Spokane, WA
No. 3 Gonzaga vs. No. 14 Wright State
No. 6 Arkansas vs. No. 11 Dayton
Omaha, NE
No. 2 Marquette vs. No. 15 Weber State
No. 7 San Diego State vs. No. 10 Memphis
SOUTH REGION (Dallas)
Omaha, NE
No. 1 Kansas vs. No. 16 Morehead State/Texas Southern
No. 8 Auburn vs. No. 9 Miami
Spokane, WA
No. 4 USC vs. No. 13 UC Irvine
No. 5 Illinois vs. No. 12 Grand Canyon
Salt Lake City, UT
No. 3 Creighton vs. No. 14 South Dakota State
No. 6 Saint Mary's vs. No. 11 Boise State/Xavier
Charlotte, NC
No. 2 Tennessee vs. No. 15 Winthrop
No. 7 TCU vs. No. 10 St. John's
WEST REGION (Los Angeles)
Indianapolis, IN
No. 1 Michigan State vs. No. 16 McNeese State
No. 8 Kansas State vs. No. 9 Mississippi State
Brooklyn, NY
No. 4 Alabama vs. No. 13 Akron
No. 5 North Carolina vs. No. 12 Yale
Salt Lake City, UT
No. 3 Arizona vs. No. 14 Colgate
No. 6 Villanova vs. No. 11 Northwestern
Memphis, TN
No. 2 Houston vs. No. 15 E. Kentucky
No. 7 Wisconsin vs. No. 10 Oregon
Last Five In: 41. Northwestern, 42. Clemson, 43. Indiana, 44. Boise State, 45. Xavier
First Five Out: 69. Florida, 70. Iowa, 71. Texas Tech, 72. Stanford, 73. Utah
ACC Summary
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5 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 3. Duke; 18. North Carolina; 29. Virginia; 34. Miami; 42. Clemson
Also Considered: Virginia Tech, NC State, Pittsburgh, Wake Forest
Biggest Change: North Carolina comfortably in (Missed 2023 tournament)
The 2022-23 ACC was responsible for two of the most disappointing seasons of all time: Louisville cratering into a 4-28 disaster while North Carolina went from No. 1 in the preseason AP Top 25 to not even making the dance.
Given the preseason loss to Kentucky Wesleyan, it does not appear the Cardinals will be any better in Kenny Payne's second season at the helm.
But will Hubert Davis and the Tar Heels turn things back around?
With both Armando Bacot and R.J. Davis returning, they do at least have talented, veteran leadership. That should be one of the best inside-outside duos in the nation. And the enigmatic Caleb Love transferring away from Chapel Hill may have been a healthy dose of addition by subtraction.
Did they make enough addition by addition, though?
On the freshman front, 5-star point guard Elliot Cadeau could be an instant star. Far too often last season, the ball just kind of stuck. (See: Love, Caleb.) Even if Cadeau isn't necessarily a volume scorer this year, he could make a huge difference with his vision and his ability to keep things moving.
And on the transfer front, they need some combination of Cormac Ryan (12.3 PPG last season at Notre Dame), Harrison Ingram (10.5 PPG at Stanford), Paxson Wojcik (14.9 PPG at Brown) and Jae'Lyn Withers (8.9 PPG at Louisville) to make a big impact to make up for all they lost.
On paper, though, the Heels look like a contender. Only time will tell if that paper gets crumpled up and thrown into the trash again.
Big 12 Summary
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7 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 1. Kansas, 5. Houston, 12. Texas, 17. Baylor, 27. TCU, 31. Kansas State, 36. Iowa State
Also Considered: Texas Tech, Cincinnati, BYU, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State
Biggest Change: Four new teams
Of the now 14 teams in the Big 12, the only in/out change is West Virginia (a No. 9 seed seven months ago) dropping out of the projected field after what we'll just call a tumultuous offseason.
Save for Kansas climbing from No. 3 overall to No. 1 overall, all seven Big 12 teams in our field are projected a bit lower for 2024 than where they landed in 2023, but no particularly substantial changes.
Aside from, you know, the addition of Houston, Cincinnati, BYU and UCF to the conference.
Maybe the college football fans in the crowd have already accepted this as normal, but at the very least, it's going to be weird when the Houston Cougars are an underdog in like half of their league games, considering the way they ran roughshod over the AAC for the vast majority of the past half-decade.
Despite losing Marcus Sasser and Jarace Walker, will they make a seamless transition into what has been the clear-cut best conference in recent years? It will largely depend on the additions of transfer L.J. Cryer (15.0 PPG at Baylor) and Damian Dunn* (15.3 PPG at Temple), as well as how well Ja'Vier Francis handles what figures to be a drastic uptick in playing time. But goodness knows Kelvin Sampson can coach and has succeeded in the Big 12 before.
It's the other three teams who figure to experience some serious tough sledding in their debut year in the Big 12.
Both Cincinnati and UCF are seeking their first NCAA tournament appearance since 2019. BYU made the dance in 2021, but it hasn't won a tournament game since 2012. They'll likely each finish in the bottom five in what will be a most unforgiving league.
*Dunn is currently sidelined with an ankle injury. Hopefully it doesn't keep him out for too long, but the Cougars do at least have depth in the backcourt.
Big East Summary
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6 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 6. Connecticut, 7. Marquette, 9. Creighton, 24. Villanova, 40. St. John's, 45. Xavier
Also Considered: Providence, Seton Hall
Biggest Change: Villanova back? (Missed 2023 tournament)
The actual biggest change that everyone has been talking about since before the hiring was even official is Rick Pitino's return to the big leagues with St. John's. Double-double machine Joel Soriano is back for the Red Storm, but they will otherwise be relying upon 10 transfers and a pair of freshmen. It will be fascinating to see if or how it all comes together, but most expect the Johnnies to be back in the mix for a bid solely because of Pitino.
However, St. John's on the NCAA tournament bubble heading into the regular season is hardly a new phenomenon. It's just a different coach in the driver's seat.
But Villanova hoping to recover from missing the dance?
Now that has only happened once in the past two decades, and the pressure is already on Kyle Neptune to get the job done.
The Wildcats lost three critical pieces in Cam Whitmore, Caleb Daniels and Brandon Slater. But this is a program that always seems to be at its best when it's super old, and Villanova is just preposterously old this year.
Justin Moore and Eric Dixon return as fifth-year seniors, as does reserve guard Chris Arcidiacono. And the four players they added as transfers? Fifth-year seniors Hakim Hart and Tyler Burton and fourth-year seniors TJ Bamba and Lance Ware.
Ware's impact after three years of barely playing at Kentucky is a colossal unknown, but the other three veterans combined to average 46.2 points per game last season and should spearhead Villanova's return to normalcy as a single-digit seed.
Big Ten Summary
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8 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 2. Purdue, 4. Michigan State, 20. Illinois, 26. Maryland, 28. Wisconsin, 35. Ohio State, 41. Northwestern, 43. Indiana
Also Considered: Iowa, Nebraska, Rutgers, Michigan
Biggest Change: Can Michigan State Get a Rare No. 1 Seed?
At 25 and counting, the Spartans have the nation's second-longest NCAA tournament streak, trailing only Kansas with 33.
Of the last 21 tournaments, though, they have been a No. 1 seed just once, doing so in 2012. And in recent years, Michigan State hasn't been getting in by much, entering the tournament with a dozen losses in each of the past three seasons.
But after only losing one noteworthy player (Joey Hauser) and reloading with one of the top recruiting classes in the nation, Tom Izzo and Co. should be ready for a return to the top of the mountain.
If it's going to happen, they need A.J. Hoggard to be more consistent in year No. 4. He scored a career-high 25 points in the overtime loss to Kansas State in the Sweet 16 and on many occasions has shown the ability to take over a game, either as a scorer or as a distributor. But he can also leave the Spartans up a creek without a paddle on nights when he's coughing the ball up.
They're also going to need something from the 5 this year, be it Mady Sissoko becoming more of a legitimate force or 5-star freshman Xavier Booker developing quicker than anticipated and eventually stealing that starting job.
Injuries permitting, though, Michigan State has one of the highest floors this season. Perhaps it can finally end the Big Ten's national championship drought.
Pac-12 Summary
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5 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 10. Arizona, 14. USC, 23. UCLA, 30. Colorado, 39. Oregon
Also Considered: Stanford, Utah, Arizona State
Biggest Change: Rocky Mountain High?
The Colorado Buffaloes have not been a preseason AP Top 25 team since 1969. And by a fairly narrow margin, that's still true. They finished second among others receiving votes, unofficially opening the year at "No. 27."
This might be the highest that preseason expectations have been for this program since Neil Armstrong was walking around on the moon.
Why the love for a team that went 18-17 (8-12 in Pac-12) one year ago?
For starters, their dynamic duo is back. Both Tristan da Silva and KJ Simpson averaged 15.9 points per game last season, and they return to lead the Buffaloes' charge.
And this time around, they'll have a more legitimate supporting cast around them.
247Sports' No. 4 overall recruit Cody Williams is by far the highest-rated freshman to sign with Colorado—a program that previously had not landed any 5-star recruit. Granted, he's No. 4 in a pretty weak recruiting class, and by all accounts he is a raw talent that will require some seasoning. But as a tertiary piece? Maybe he can thrive.
The Buffaloes also picked up TCU transfer Eddie Lampkin Jr., who should immediately become the top rebounder in Boulder—with freshman Assane Diop likely getting a good chunk of playing time as Lampkin's backup.
Depth is a legitimate concern, though. If Williams disappoints or if anyone gets hurt, Colorado's ceiling lowers in a hurry. But the pieces are there for the Buffaloes to make a run at their first (and last) Pac-12 title.
SEC Summary
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8 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 8. Tennessee, 15. Texas A&M, 16. Alabama, 19. Kentucky, 21. Arkansas, 32. Auburn, 33. Mississippi State, 38. Missouri
Also Considered: Florida, LSU, Ole Miss
Biggest Change: Another Kentucky Roster Overhaul
Eight SEC teams made the NCAA tournament in 2023, and the exact same eight teams are projected to dance again in 2024. Even the projected seeding is pretty similar, save for Alabama projected to dip from the No. 1 overall seed to the bottom No. 4 seed.
But even if that plays to form, one thing that very much will not look the same is Kentucky.
Primary three-point threat Antonio Reeves waited until the last minute to pull his name out of the NBA draft and waited even longer to make his decision to return to Kentucky, but he will be back.
No one else who ranked top nine on the roster in minutes or points in 2022-23 will rejoin him in Lexington, though.
Instead, John Calipari has returned to what used to be his standard operating procedure: loading up on the best high schoolers available.
Point guard D.J. Wagner, small forward Justin Edwards and center Aaron Bradshaw all ranked top six in this year's class, per 247Sports, and they each figure to play a huge role for the Wildcats—though exactly when Bradshaw starts to make his impact remains in question as he recovers from offseason foot surgery. Point guard Rob Dillingham also narrowly missed out on a 5-star rating and will feature prominently.
It won't entirely be Reeves and freshmen, though, as Calipari did hit the portal for one major acquisition. Tre Mitchell has gone from Massachusetts to Texas to West Virginia to what will be his final collegiate home at Kentucky. Neither Big 12 team could figure out how to fully unlock his potential, but he averaged 18.0 points and 7.2 rebounds in his initial two years with the Minutemen. He will be absolutely crucial as UK adjusts to life after Oscar Tshiebwe.
Mid-Major Summary
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7 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 11. Gonzaga, 13. Florida Atlantic, 22. Saint Mary's, 25. San Diego State, 37. Memphis, 44. Boise State, 46. Dayton
Also Considered: New Mexico, VCU, Nevada
Biggest Change: Respect for the Owls
Florida Atlantic was one team for whom we deviated a good bit from the aggregated rankings.
The Owls "should" have been a No. 7 seed based on the average of the five rankings utilized, getting very little love from either KenPom (No. 37) or Haslametrics (No. 46).
But we've got them as our top No. 4 seed, and even that might not be high enough.
No, that's not an overreaction to the Owls making a run to last year's Final Four as a No. 9 seed—an egregious under-seeding that we loudly complained about on Selection Sunday. Rather, it's a belief that the combination of moving to a marginally better conference (from C-USA to AAC) and already entering the year extremely on the national radar (No. 10 in the AP poll) provides a huge boost in seed potential for a team that brings back everyone except for Michael Forrest.
Beyond the new conference affiliation, FAU also put together a substantially more difficult nonconference schedule. This is, of course, a double-edged sword that could result in way more losses. However, with one of the most intact rosters in the nation, the Owls should be up to the challenge.
Get the Dec. 23 showdown with Arizona on your calendar now. That's going to be a big one in Las Vegas.
One-Bid Leagues Summary
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22 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 47. Drake, 48. Yale, 49. Grand Canyon, 50. Charleston, 51. Liberty, 52. UC Irvine, 53. Akron, 54. UNC Greensboro, 55. South Dakota State, 56. Appalachian State, 57. Wright State, 58. Colgate, 59. Eastern Kentucky, 60. Vermont, 61. Weber State, 62. Winthrop, 63. Iona, 64. McNeese State, 65. Texas Southern, 66. Morehead State, 67. Howard, 68. Wagner
Biggest Change: Giving these teams even a sliver of the spotlight
With our old projected bracket format, 100 percent of the focus was on the at-large candidates, be it the No. 1 seeds, the teams that moved the most from one projection to the next or the bubble.
And, well, there's a reason for that: For the one-bid leagues, the only games that actually matter from a bracketology perspective are the conference tournaments. There's almost no point in bringing up the Colgates and the Ionas of the field until they've actually punched their ticket.
However, consider this my preseason pledge to always show at least a little bit of love for the neglected three-quarters of D-I men's college basketball.
That begins with my pick to become this year's Cinderella story: the Antelopes of Grand Canyon.
Bryce Drew's 'Lopes have been knocking on the door in recent years, but they couldn't overcome Luka Garza in 2021 or Drew Timme in 2023.
Those experiences will pay dividends, though, for a veteran team bringing back leaders Ray Harrison and Gabe McGlothan, getting back Jovan Blacksher Jr. from the knee injury that cut short his 2022-23 season and adding four high-major transfers who may thrive when finally getting the chance to shine.
The big chances to prove something come in early December when they host San Diego State and play at Liberty in consecutive games. And if the Antelopes happen to make it through those two contests unscathed, let the undefeated watch begin.
