Best Fits for Top Available MLB Free Agents Still on the Market
For the most part, lineups and rotations are set for Opening Day. We are getting early glimpses through spring training games at how teams might actually play, but the ink is dried for most key players.
There are some notable exceptions, though.
Arguably the top free-agent pitcher is still on the market. An All-Star who hit more than 30 homers last year is out there. So is a recent contributor to a World Series champion.
These players are far too good not to land somewhere, even if it's for less money than they believe themselves to be worth. Or do they catch a desperate team that's finally willing to cave to separate their club from the pack?
Here, we identify the best fit for the top free agents still on the board.
Honorable Mentions
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RHP Mike Clevinger to Pittsburgh Pirates
Clevinger should be enticing, especially at this time of year, because he's already shown an ability to bounce back from a shaky start to the season.
That's what he did last year with the Chicago White Sox, when he posted a 4.84 ERA across his first seven starts but brought it down to 3.88 before a wrist setback put him on the injured list in mid-June.
The Pirates could use another back-end starter, and Clevinger would fill that role perfectly.
LHP Julio Urías to San Diego Padres
A top three of Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish and Urias suddenly gives the Padres new life. Few teams would know how dynamic Urias can be quite like the Padres, who faced him plenty when pitched for the Dodgers.
The main deterrent from Urias is his several arrests following alleged domestic violence, the most recent of which he won't be prosecuted for. He could still face a lengthy MLB suspension.
LHP Rich Hill to Boston Red Sox
Hill recently said on a Red Sox spring training broadcast that he's interested in returning to his former team. It makes sense that he would feel at home there, having pitched for Boston from 2010 to 2012 and then again in 2015 and once more in 2022. He's also a Massachusetts native.
Given the unfortunate season-ending elbow injury to Lucas Giolito, Boston's top free-agent signing, it makes perfect sense to reunite with a familiar face, even if he's 43 years old.
RHP Johnny Cueto to New York Mets
The Mets have a ok rotation with Jose Quintana and Luis Severino at the top of it. But it's not exactly great, and four of the five starters are aged 30 or older.
Cueto, at 38 years old, would be much older than all of them. He'd also provide some insurance for when things inevitably go awry for the Mets.
3B Evan Longoria to Milwaukee Brewers
Longoria is a long way from the All-Star Gold Glove player he was. But the 38-year-old still plays solid defense at third base and was a key contributor to an Arizona Diamondbacks team that went to the World Series.
The Brewers could use some help at third base. They were bottom-six in fWAR at the position last season.
1B Donovan Solano
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Age: 36
2023 stats: .282/.369/.391, 5 home runs, 116 wRC+, 1.2 fWAR
Donovan Solano has experience playing all of the infield spots and is best suited for first base at this point in his career. He brings a consistent, reliable bat to any team looking for one.
While Solano has never been known for his power, he makes really good contact while striking out and walking at around the league average.
It is interesting Solano would last this long on the market, considering he just finished one of his best seasons. For the Minnesota Twins last year, he had a career-best .369 on-base percentage, and his 110 OPS+ is his best full-season mark since returning to the big leagues in 2019.
The Kansas City Royals had the third-worst fWAR at first base last season. Their plan at the position for now is Vinnie Pasquantino, who learned at his wedding that he'd been the subject of trade talks with the Marlins.
Pasquantino, a much younger player at age 26, projects to have a better season than Solano. But Kansas City could still stand to add the 1B and DH depth.
Fit: Kansas City Royals
1B Brandon Belt
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Age: 35
2023 stats: .254/.369/.490, 19 home runs, 138 wRC+, 2.3 fWAR
It was odd seeing Brandon Belt play in a uniform other than the San Francisco Giants' last season. After a year in Toronto, it appears the veteran is on the move again, however slowly.
Whichever team signs Belt will get one of the better contact hitters in baseball. He still walks a lot and strikes out a lot, but that is his brand. The keys to focus on are that he's still capable of hitting close to 20 homers, his barrel percentage was in the 91st percentile last season and his sweet-spot percentage was in the 99th percentile.
Texas has Nathaniel Lowe at first base, but it does have a spot available at designated hitter after losing Mitch Garver to the Seattle Mariners in free agency.
Belt is a Texas native who also spent nine seasons with Rangers skipper Bruce Bochy, having won a pair of World Series titles together from their Giants days.
The fit seems clear.
Fit: Texas Rangers
LF Tommy Pham
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Age: 35
2023 stats: .256/.328/.446, 16 home runs, 110 wRC+, 1.8 fWAR
Speaking of reunions, it's setting up for the well-traveled Tommy Pham to return to one of his previous homes.
The Padres are looking for an established outfielder, which is tough to find this close to Opening Day. They already brought back Jurickson Profar, but he joins Fernando Tatis Jr. and José Azócar as the only outfielders on San Diego's 40-man roster.
There are reports linking Pham to his old team. The Athletic's Dennis Lin reported last week that Pham "remains among the team's potential options" in seeking more proven outfield help.
San Diego knows what it's getting in Pham–a hard-nosed, hard-hitting outfielder with experience in big games.
It's an entirely different question as to whether the Padres will be playing in big games. But having someone who just homered in the NLDS, NLCS and World Series would be nice if they do.
Fit: San Diego Padres
OF Adam Duvall
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Age: 35
2023 stats: .247/.303/.531, 21 home runs, 116 wRC+, 1.9 fWAR
It's been nearly two months since the Boston Red Sox and Los Angeles Angels were reportedly in a bidding war for Duvall.
Both teams could use him, but here we're predicting neither club wins the war.
Another squad that could use Duvall is the New York Mets. They have new management in president of baseball operations David Stearns, who is clear about wanting to field a contender this season despite the Mets' fire sale of impact starting pitchers ahead of last year's trade deadline.
Adding Duvall would give them an immediate upgrade at designated hitter, but also allow for a solid outfield rotation with Brandon Nimmo, Starling Marte and the recently signed Harrison Bader. Duvall could provide relief for any of those three, having just played 61 games in center field for the Red Sox last season.
There has been little to no buzz around Duvall to the Big Apple since SNY's Danny Abriano mentioned him in October as a free-agent option.
Despite a reported bidding war from other teams, the option is still there.
Fit: New York Mets
CF Michael A. Taylor
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Age: 32
2023 stats: .220/.278/.442, 21 home runs, 96 wRC+, 1.7 fWAR
Michael A. Taylor should probably be off the board by now, but there appears to be some disconnect on his market.
The Athletic's Ken Rosenthal reports Taylor views himself as comparable to Kevin Kiermaier and Harrison Bader, both of whom signed for one-year and $10.5 million. So that's the starting point for Taylor, and it's clear he has not been able to get that deal.
He would be a sensible one-year investment for a team looking to turn the corner, which is exactly where the Cincinnati Reds should be. They achieved the primary goal of adding quality depth to their rotation with Frankie Montas and potentially Nick Martinez, who will likely start the year in the bullpen.
At this point, getting aggressive for a useful right-handed outfielder would not be a bad idea, especially since it can likely be done on a short-term, expiring deal.
MLB Network's Jon Morosi reported in December that the Reds were among teams showing interest in the 2021 Gold Glove winner who just hit a career-best 21 homers.
Fit: Cincinnati Reds
DH J.D. Martinez
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Age: 36
2023 stats: .271/.321/.572, 33 home runs, 135 wRC+, 2.2 fWAR
J.D. Martinez showed no signs of slowing down in his mid-30s while playing for the Los Angeles Dodgers last year. His 33 homers in 2023 were the most he'd hit since 2019.
There's a chance if the Dodgers had not landed a generational talent at DH in Shohei Ohtani, they might have kept Martinez around. Most of his peripheral stats are solidly in the red.
Martinez ranks in the 96th percentile or higher in expected slugging, average exit velocity, barrel percentage, hard-hit percentage and sweet-spot percentage. It makes sense that he would hit 30-plus long balls with that kind of profile.
Might this interest the Cubs, an organization with deep pockets that can afford to spend on luxury and a specific need at DH?
For now, Chicago is likely to run a rotation of players at DH. If the club gets serious about the DH position the way the Dodgers did last season, there's Martinez waiting on them, still ready to swing the bat.
Fit: Chicago Cubs
RHP Zack Greinke
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Age: 40
2023 stats: 5.06 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 97 strikeouts, 142.1 innings pitched
Most have learned their lesson to avoid falling in love with the Angels, no one more notable than Shohei Ohtani.
Still, this remains an enticing ballclub on paper. What it needs is front-line starting pitching. Zack Greinke is no longer that. But he is still capable, and no one on the Angels staff will bring more knowledge than Greinke if they sign him.
A one-year deal with Greinke carries almost no risk. It's certainly far less risky than trotting out the rotation as it stands.
It was likely to take a hit with Ohtani's departure, and inserting Greinke at 40 years old does not heal all wounds. Yet if the Angels want to be serious in the AL West, where the Houston Astros and Texas Rangers rule with the Seattle Mariners lurking, they have to make bold moves.
Greinke's already plotting retirement, so someone should take this opportunity to nab one of the greats of this generation.
Greinke is nowhere near the same pitcher he once was, but has a remarkable command of the baseball. He remains one of the least charitable with walks at 3.9 percent, which was his best in a full season since 2019.
Fit: Los Angeles Angels
RHP Michael Lorenzen
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Age: 32
2023 stats: 4.18 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 111 strikeouts, 153 innings pitched
Acquiring starter depth is a bit of a luxury when you get this deep into spring training. But there is Michael Lorenzen, available for the taking and likely on a team-friendly one-year deal.
This would be the third time he'd do so in as many years, having pitched for the Los Angeles Angels two years ago and signing with the Detroit Tigers last offseason before he was dealt to the Philadelphia Phillies.
A contender in Philly traded for him, while non-contenders in L.A. and Detroit had little to no use for him.
The Minnesota Twins are returning most of their AL Central-winning roster, which could really use more pitching to break into the upper echelon. Signing Lorenzen alone won't do it, but it's a decent start.
Lorenzen pitched a no-hitter against the Washington Nationals after being traded to Philly last August. His 3.58 ERA in 18 starts for Detroit earned Lorenzen his first All-Star nod.
The Twins are among the teams linked to Lorenzen as a potential landing spot, according to New York Post MLB insider Jon Heyman.
Fit: Minnesota Twins
LHP Jordan Montgomery
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Age: 31
2023 stats: 3.20 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 166 strikeouts, 188.2 innings pitched
For much of the offseason, it seemed to make a lot of sense for a return to the World Series champion Texas Rangers for Jordan Montgomery. Trading for him worked out well, and the Rangers showed how valuable it can be to have a surplus of starters in the postseason.
But we're just a few weeks away from Opening Day, and Montgomery still has yet to find a home, not even the one he held briefly and where he helped win a World Series.
His agent, Scott Boras, told Bob Nightengale of USA Today that four new teams had reached out about his two top free-agent lefty hurlers, Montgomery and reigning NL Cy Young winner Blake Snell.
It's well-established the Giants have interest in Snell, but could they settle for Montgomery if the former is too pricey? Call it a consolation prize, but the retooling Giants are a much more serious outfit with another front-line starter beyond Logan Webb.
Fit: San Francisco Giants
LHP Blake Snell
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Age: 31
2023 stats: 2.25 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 234 strikeouts, 180 innings pitched
Let's revisit those four mystery teams for a second. Most clubs should be interested in a two-time Cy Young winner in his prime, even if the asking price is off putting.
The Phillies have to be in the mix for Blake Snell. They already have two ace-level starters in Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler. Adding Snell and putting one of the lefties in the rotation's back end into the bullpen would put Philly into a new dimension in terms of expectation.
With those three healthy, the Phillies would start most playoff series with a clear pitching advantage through the first few games.
Snell had the game's lowest ERA and was second in strikeouts per nine innings. This was his second time as the ERA leader and Cy Young winner in the same season, which he did for the Tampa Bay Rays in 2018.
It would be such a fun and bold move for the Phillies to double down on their rotation after bringing back Nola, just to later outbid the New York Yankees for Snell. The trick for the Phillies front office is figuring out a deal that doesn't put them in luxury tax hell for years to come. They will already be exceeding the CBT for the third year in a row.
Fit: Philadelphia Phillies
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