Predicting the Mystery Teams Interested in Free Agents Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery
With spring training in full swing and Opening Day later this month, starting pitchers Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery continue to search for their next contract in what has been an unusual free-agent market.
Both players are clients of super agent Scott Boras, and two of his other notable clients—Cody Bellinger and Matt Chapman—recently signed contracts after facing a similarly slow-moving market that stretched deep into the offseason.
Those sluggers ultimately signed three-year deals that include opt-out clauses after the first and second year, and now that teams have had a chance to see the blueprint on those contracts, interest has started to pick up surrounding Snell and Montgomery.
At least according to Boras.
Per Bob Nightengale of USA Today, Boras said that four new teams have reached out with interest in the two lefties since the start of spring training, though for now those teams remain a mystery.
So let's play detective and try to narrow down who the interested parties might be.
Teams That Have Already Been Linked
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Since the latest report is that four new teams are kicking the tires on Snell and Montgomery, we can start by eliminating the clubs that have already been linked to them so far this offseason.
The San Francisco Giants have shown interest in Snell throughout the offseason, and that interest was reaffirmed in the aftermath of signing Matt Chapman, according to Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle.
Meanwhile, the New York Yankees made the only publicly known offer to Snell, believed to be for five years and roughly $28 million per year, according to Jon Heyman of the New York Post.
As for Montgomery, a reunion with the Texas Rangers has been talked about frequently after he played a key role in leading the club to a World Series title, but uncertainty surrounding the club's TV deal has kept the Rangers from making any splashy moves this winter.
Just a few days ago, Nightengale reported that "executives widely believe" that Snell will sign with the Los Angeles Angels or Giants, while Montgomery is expected to land with the Boston Red Sox.
So before we get the ball rolling on potential mystery teams, we've already eliminated the Angels, Giants, Rangers, Red Sox and Yankees as teams with widely recognized ties to one or both pitchers.
That doesn't mean that they won't ultimately sign with one of those teams, just that they don't qualify as "mystery" teams for the sake of this discussion.
Baltimore Orioles
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Projected Opening Day Rotation
RHP Corbin Burnes
RHP Grayson Rodriguez
RHP Dean Kremer
RHP Tyler Wells
LHP Cole Irvin
The Orioles have already added some major firepower to their starting rotation by swinging a blockbuster deal to acquire Corbin Burnes from the Milwaukee Brewers, but with their window to contend swinging open, they might not be finished.
With Kyle Bradish (elbow sprain) and John Means (elbow soreness) both expected to open the season on the injured list, adding another starting pitcher to the mix would make sense, especially considering projected No. 5 starter Cole Irvin had an inconsistent-at-best first season in Baltimore last year.
The O's have a payroll projected for just under $92 million for the 2024 season, which ranks 23rd in the majors, so there is plenty of room for them to add salary. Complicating matters is an ownership change that may make it tough to add payroll at the moment.
Chicago Cubs
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Projected Opening Day Rotation
LHP Justin Steele
RHP Jameson Taillon
LHP Shōta Imanaga
RHP Kyle Hendricks
LHP Jordan Wicks
The Chicago Cubs have already made one major addition to the starting rotation this offseason, inking Japanese League star Shōta Imanaga to a four-year, $53 million deal that includes a club option for a fifth year that could bring the total value to $80 million.
He slots into the rotation spot vacated by Marcus Stroman, but the Cubs could still look to add another starting pitcher to the mix with an unsettled No. 5 starter spot.
Jordan Wicks, Javier Assad, Hayden Wesneski and Caleb Killian are the leading candidates to break camp with the final rotation job, while top prospects Ben Brown and Cade Horton could also be a factor at some point in 2024. After spending less than expected in total money to bring back Cody Bellinger, the Cubs might be willing to make one more move to finish off their winter haul.
Houston Astros
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Projected Opening Day Rotation
LHP Framber Valdez
RHP Cristian Javier
RHP José Urquidy
RHP Hunter Brown
RHP J.P. France
With Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis Garcia both still recovering from last year's arm procedures and Justin Verlander expected to join them on the injured list to start the year with shoulder soreness, the Houston Astros could use some rotation reinforcement.
Hunter Brown and J.P. France both showed promise as rookies, but they also struggled mightily after their initial success. Brown had a 6.57 ERA in 61.2 innings after the All-Star break, while France had just one quality start over his final six outings with a 7.94 ERA over 28.1 frames.
Ideally, those two would be competing for one spot at the back of the rotation rather than both breaking camp in the rotation. The Astros already made a splash when they signed All-Star closer Josh Hader, and a short-term deal for Snell or Montgomery would not interfere with their long-term financial outlook and potential in-house extensions.
Minnesota Twins
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Projected Opening Day Rotation
RHP Pablo López
RHP Joe Ryan
RHP Bailey Ober
RHP Chris Paddack
RHP Anthony DeSclafani
The Minnesota Twins lost Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda and Tyler Mahle in free agency, and the only outside addition they made to the starting rotation was buying low on veteran Anthony DeSclafani in a trade with the Seattle Mariners.
That leaves them relying heavily on Bailey Ober to replicate a breakout season and Chris Paddack to make a smooth return to the rotation after pitching just 27.1 innings the past two years while recovering from Tommy John surgery.
The 2023 AL Central champs might still have the best team in the division, but adding someone like Snell or Montgomery to the rotation would solidify their standing as the team to beat and shore up a rotation that could otherwise become an issue.
Philadelphia Phillies
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Projected Opening Day Rotation
RHP Aaron Nola
RHP Zack Wheeler
RHP Taijuan Walker
LHP Ranger Suárez
LHP Cristopher Sánchez
The focus for the Philadelphia Phillies this offseason has been keeping their own rotation pieces in-house, signing Aaron Nola to a seven-year, $172 million deal shortly after he declared for free agency and then inking Zack Wheeler to a three-year, $126 million extension ahead of the final year of his previous contract.
Those two will once again anchor the starting rotation, and while lefties Ranger Suárez and Cristopher Sánchez have the potential to be solid options at the bottom of the staff, the Phillies could take an opportunistic approach to add another top-tier starter to the staff.
Nightengale identified the Phillies as potential sleepers to make a run at one of the market's top remaining free agents, specifically naming Montgomery. Adding him to the mix would certainly help keep pace with the Atlanta Braves in the NL East race.
San Diego Padres
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Projected Opening Day Rotation
RHP Joe Musgrove
RHP Yu Darvish
RHP Michael King
RHP Jhony Brito
RHP Randy Vasquez
After spending most of the offseason focused on cutting payroll, it would certainly be a surprise to see the San Diego Padres throw their hat into the ring in pursuit of one of the market's top remaining starters.
Then again, they are currently projected to rely on Jhony Brito and Randy Vasquez to hold down spots in the rotation. Both pitchers were acquired from the New York Yankees in the Juan Soto deal, and they have a combined 128 innings of big league experience under their belts.
The Padres saw first hand what an impact Snell can make when everything is clicking, and while a long-term deal might not have been an appealing option, perhaps they would consider a reunion on a shorter deal.
St. Louis Cardinals
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Projected Opening Day Rotation
RHP Miles Mikolas
RHP Kyle Gibson
RHP Lance Lynn
LHP Steven Matz
LHP Zack Thompson
The St. Louis Cardinals moved quickly to shore up a starting rotation that was a major weakness last season, adding veterans Sonny Gray, Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson in the early days of free agency.
Unfortunately, Gray is already sidelined with a hamstring issue that could keep him on the sidelines for Opening Day, and that could expose the lack of quality starting pitching depth on the St. Louis roster.
Montgomery enjoyed plenty of success in a Cardinals uniform during parts of the past two seasons, posting a 3.31 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 169 strikeouts in 184.2 innings. Considering Gibson and Lynn both signed one-year deals, Montgomery would represent more of a long-term answer to addressing the starting staff.
Tampa Bay Rays
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Projected Opening Day Rotation
RHP Zach Eflin
RHP Aaron Civale
RHP Zack Littell
RHP Ryan Pepiot
RHP Taj Bradley
Looking for a dark horse? Look no further than the Tampa Bay Rays.
With Tyler Glasnow traded away and Shane McClanahan, Drew Rasmussen and Jeffrey Springs all recovering from their respective arm surgeries, the Rays are poised to count on 2023 rookies Ryan Pepiot and Taj Bradley to be difference makers in the rotation.
Both pitchers have a ton of upside, but for a team with serious postseason aspirations, more stability behind emerging ace Zach Eflin would move the needle significantly for their October outlook.
Snell won a Cy Young in a Rays uniform, but the durability and consistency of Montgomery would arguably be even more valuable on this Tampa Bay roster.
Toronto Blue Jays
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Projected Opening Day Rotation
RHP Kevin Gausman
RHP José Berríos
RHP Chris Bassitt
LHP Yusei Kikuchi
RHP Bowden Francis
Alek Manoah went from young ace on the rise in 2022 to a complete non-factor in 2023 when he struggled to a 5.87 ERA in 87.1 innings and was briefly demoted all the way back to rookie ball.
The Blue Jays entered spring training hoping Manoah would rebound and left him with a clear path to the No. 5 starter job, but he allowed three hits, one walk and hit three batters in 1.2 innings in his spring debut, and he has been dealing with shoulder soreness since.
Meanwhile, ace Kevin Gausman is dealing with a shoulder issue of his own, and after doing little to bridge the gap in the AL East race during the offseason, the Blue Jays could still make a splash before the season starts with a major addition to the rotation.
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