New Landing Spot Predictions for 2024 NFL Free-Agent RBs After Franchise-Tag Deadline
Several quality running backs are set to hit the open market now that the NFL's deadline for franchise tagging players is officially in the rearview.
ESPN's Adam Schefter highlighted several of the top names available and described it as the "best class of RBs in free agent history." It's also one of the deepest, as there will be several former Pro Bowlers and All-Pros up for grabs next week.
Not a single back was franchise-tagged this year, a stark change from 2023 when three—including a pair of reigning Pro Bowlers like Saquon Barkley and Josh Jacobs—were hit with it. This sheer abundance of backfield talent should make things interesting as teams desperate for running back upgrades gear up for negotiations.
With that in mind, let's highlight each of the notable free-agent running backs and predict where each could land in free agency.
All salary-cap figures and contract projections courtesy of Spotrac.
Saquon Barkley
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After franchise tagging Saquon Barkley to start the offseason last year, the New York Giants elected not to take that path with their star running back in 2024. While general manager Joe Schoen had hinted that the option remained on the table as recently as last week, the front office ultimately decided against paying $12.1 million to secure Barkley for one more year.
Barkley is now set to become an unrestricted free agent and should be the most coveted option for teams seeking a veteran running back this spring. While his 2023 performance wasn't as dynamic as his elite 2022 showing, Barkley still put up 962 yards and six touchdowns on 247 carries and added another 280 yards and four scores on 41 receptions.
The 27-year-old is only a season removed from a Pro Bowl campaign in which he recorded 1,650 yards and 10 touchdowns from scrimmage. Barkley missed three games this past season, but the injury woes that threatened to derail his career during the 2020 and '21 seasons appear to be in the past.
Barkley should still have plenty left in the tank as he gears up for his seventh professional season. He'd be a great fit on a young team like the Houston Texans, who have quickly assembled one of the league's more dynamic passing attacks around C.J. Stroud.
Houston heads into 2024 hoping to build on its surprise Divisional Round run and desperately needs a high-end running back to round out its offense. With Dameon Pierce regressing during his sophomore season and veteran Devin Singletary hitting free agency, the Texans shouldn't shy away from splurging for a major backfield upgrade.
The team has over $70 million in cap space, making it easy to tender a market value contract—estimated to be in the $10 million-per-year range—for Barkley.
Predicted Landing Spot: Houston Texans
Austin Ekeler
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Austin Ekeler appeared to see the writing on the wall when he attempted to find a trade to escape the Los Angeles Chargers before the 2023 season began.
While working as the team's primary offensive threat during the 2021 and '22 campaigns, the running back averaged nearly 1,600 yards from scrimmage and 19 touchdowns on 293.5 touches. Ekeler's workload was significantly reduced during L.A.'s trying 2023 campaign, a shift that resulted in a contribution of only 1,064 yards and six scores on 230 touches.
It now remains to be seen if Ekeler's regression has more to do with a decline in speed and skill after seven seasons in the NFL or the schematic change the Bolts implemented when they brought in offensive coordinator Kellen Moore before the season.
Ekeler missed three games in 2023 due to ankle injuries, including a high right ankle sprain that caused him to "walk sideways down the stairs every morning." He also admitted that his reduced role in Moore's system was "tough" and affirmed he can still be the same player who put up big numbers as a focal point in prior seasons.
Front offices will have to shell out an estimated $7.4 million annually to find out if Ekeler is still capable of playmaking at a high level in 2024. That could wind up being a bargain price if he returns to form, or it could be an albatross if the 28-year-old continues to regress.
The Dallas Cowboys should roll the dice on Ekeler this spring, as owner Jerry Jones has never shied away from a splashy free-agent signing.
Dallas didn't find the success it was hoping for after releasing Ezekiel Elliott and installing longtime backup Tony Pollard as its starting back for 2023. With Pollard set to test the market, the Cowboys could opt for a fresh start by letting him walk and bringing Ekeler aboard for 2024.
Predicted Landing Spot: Dallas Cowboys
Derrick Henry
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No running back has been more impactful over the last six years than Derrick Henry. Since taking over the starting role for the Tennessee Titans in 2018, the bruising back has amassed an incredible 8,268 yards and 80 touchdowns on 1,744 carries. He's almost certainly played his last down in a Titans uniform, however, as he gave a goodbye speech to the fans following the 2023 season finale.
Although he's 30 years old and in the twilight of his career, the 6'3", 247-pound back still has the potential to be a game-changer. Henry is coming off his fourth Pro Bowl appearance and contributed 1,381 yards and 12 touchdowns from scrimmage last year despite logging a meager 53 percent of Tennessee's offensive snaps.
Plenty of teams could benefit from Henry's ability to pick up tough yards and shed tackles, especially at a predicted cost of $10.3 million per season. While that would still price him in the upper echelon of running back contracts, there seems to be enough tread left on Henry's tires to warrant it.
The Baltimore Ravens make plenty of sense as a landing spot for Henry as they look to capitalize on their championship window. The squad came up short in the playoffs despite posting an NFL-best 13-4 record and holding the eventual Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs to just 17 points in the AFC Championship Game.
The veteran tandem of Gus Edwards and Justice Hill was unable to get anything going in that contest, combining for a mere 23 yards on six carries. That dismal showing made it readily apparent that the Ravens need to upgrade their backfield this offseason, especially after factoring in the potential loss of J.K. Dobbins.
Henry would make for an ideal complement to Keaton Mitchell after the rookie flashed serious playmaking skills before suffering a season-ending injury. If Baltimore pairs the dynamic young back with Henry for the 2024 campaign, the team should have no problems fielding one of the league's best rushing attacks while also reducing the amount of wear-and-tear on MVP quarterback Lamar Jackson.
Predicted Landing Spot: Baltimore Ravens
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Josh Jacobs
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Josh Jacobs experienced a steep decline this past season, but he's set to become one of the best running backs on the open market after the Las Vegas Raiders declined to franchise-tag him before Tuesday's deadline.
Jacobs established himself as arguably the NFL's best back in 2022, earning an All-Pro nod after rushing for a whopping 1,653 yards and 12 touchdowns on 340 totes. He also continued to show his chops as a pass-catcher, reeling in 53 passes for 400 yards.
That performance made Vegas' decision to franchise-tag him last year an easy one. Unfortunately for the club, Jacobs struggled along with the rest of the offense for much of 2023. During his 13 starts—he missed four games with injury—the fifth-year veteran only tallied 805 yards and six touchdowns on 233 carries. Jacobs was arguably at his most impactful in 2023 while running routes, as he finished the year with 296 yards on 37 receptions.
You can't fault the Raiders' brass for not franchise tagging Jacobs for the second straight season given that decline. With a projected market value of $10.6 million annually and a tag costing $14.1 million for the 2024 season, the finances simply didn't add up.
There's a decent chance the Raiders will now lose the back they drafted No. 24 overall in 2019, however, as rival franchises with far more cap space will soon have a chance to negotiate with the unrestricted free agent.
The Chicago Bears might just be the team that puts the best offer on the table. Few clubs have as much as cap room as Chicago, which has $57.6 million. The team must use some of that cash to upgrade its running back platoon after quarterback Justin Fields led the offense in rushing yards last season.
While Chicago still has Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson under contract for the upcoming campaign, Jacobs could replace impending free agent D'Onta Foreman in the rotation. His presence would give the Bears three capable backs who can take the heat off likely No. 1 overall pick Caleb Williams.
Predicted Landing Spot: Chicago Bears
Tony Pollard
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Tony Pollard established himself as one of the most intriguing talents in the league when he made a Pro Bowl appearance in 2022 despite not even being a starting running back. Pollard's star faded this past season, however, as he failed to live up to the hype following his elevation to the Dallas Cowboys' RB1 job in the wake of Ezekiel Elliott's release.
Although he logged a career-high 252 totes this season, Pollard produced only 1,005 rushing yards and six touchdowns. That output paled in comparison to the 1,0007 yards and nine scores he posted on a mere 193 carries the previous year.
Pollard's stats as a receiver were similarly underwhelming. While he set new career highs in targets (67) and catches (55), he generated only 311 yards and failed to find the end zone. It was a clear step back from the 371 yards and three touchdowns he posted on just 39 catches in 2022.
That regression is concerning and could be the impetus for Pollard's exit as a free agent. With Cowboys ownership opting to back head coach Mike McCarthy and offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer—keeping both around despite a woefully disappointing first-round playoff exit—a fresh face in the backfield appears necessary.
The Philadelphia Eagles could bet on Pollard returning to form. The team was most recently seen faltering in the Wild Card Round, capping off an abysmal stretch of six defeats in seven weeks following a 10-1 start. That epic collapse showed that the Eagles desperately need to retool this offseason to get back to contending status.
Pollard could become a key piece in a backfield that leaned heavily on D'Andre Swift last year. Swift is set to test the open market and could ultimately be too pricy to bring back.
Pollard represents a slightly more affordable option than Swift for an Eagles squad that must pinch pennies to fill every hole this offseason
Predicted Landing Spot: Philadelphia Eagles
D'Andre Swift
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Few running backs boosted their stock more last season than D'Andre Swift. A rather unheralded acquisition by the Philadelphia Eagles during Day 3 of the 2023 NFL draft, Swift vastly outperformed the value of the fourth- and seventh-round picks the team gave up for him.
After opening the year buried on the depth chart, Swift broke out in Week 2 with a 175-yard rushing outing. He went on to finish the campaign with 1,049 rushing yards—the first 1,000-yard season of his four-year career—and five touchdowns on 229 carries. He wasn't utilized as a receiver as frequently as he was during his tenure with the Detroit Lions, but Swift still snared 39 passes for 214 yards and a score.
That outburst should set up Swift to secure a nice contract this offseason. The back is confident that his best is still to come too, telling NBC Sports' Dave Zangaro that "I'm just getting started" following his breakout year.
If Swift is going to build on his 2023 showing, it likely won't be in the City of Brotherly Love. The organization has been averse to paying large sums for running backs, most recently letting starting back Miles Sanders walk despite a Pro Bowl nod in 2022.
Given he's only projected to earn a $6.7 million AAV on his next deal, a squad like the New York Giants could swoop in to snatch the 25-year-old Swift away from their divisional rivals.
Following their decision not to franchise-tag Saquon Barkley, the Giants are bereft of a proven running back. The club has a clear need for a multifaceted back to replace Barkley, one who can run between the tackles, bounce it outside and haul in passes.
Swift is an ideal candidate to replace Barkley's production at a significantly cheaper cost—an important factor for a team that has just a league-average $41 million to work with right now. The 5'9", 216-pound back has shown himself to be versatile, brimming with upside and should only improve on his next contract.
Predicted Landing Spot: New York Giants
The Rest
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J.K. Dobbins
J.K. Dobbins has displayed Pro Bowl potential when healthy, but injuries have been the unfortunate story of his career. After missing the entire 2021 season and playing just one game in 2023, Dobbins has logged only 24 NFL appearances since being drafted in the second round in 2020.
Projected to earn just a shade over $2 million on his next contract, Dobbins will likely need to accept a "prove it" style deal from a team betting on his health. The Green Bay Packers could be the spot for Dobbins to rehabilitate his career, allowing him to back up Aaron Jones.
Predicted Landing Spot: Green Bay Packers
AJ Dillon
After playing in the shadow of Aaron Jones for the last four seasons, AJ Dillon could finally burst out in 2024. The 6'0", 247-pound running back had done well with his limited touches until disappointment struck this past season. Despite earning the largest snap share of his career and drawing six starts, Dillon averaged only 3.4 yards per carry.
Dillon could land with a cash-strapped team hoping to get starter-caliber production at a backup cost. Predicted to earn just $3.5 million annually on his second contract, the 25-year-old makes sense for the Los Angeles Chargers—a franchise that is likely to part ways with Austin Ekeler and is more than $25 million over the cap at the onset of the new league year.
Predicted Landing Spot: Los Angeles Chargers
Kareem Hunt
After spending the first few weeks of the 2023 season on the couch, Kareem Hunt was called back into action by the Cleveland Browns following Nick Chubb's devastating injury. While Hunt wasn't a seamless replacement for the four-time Pro Bowler, he did pitch in 411 yards and a career-high nine touchdowns across 135 carries.
Although Hunt clearly isn't the speedy, elusive playmaker of his youth, the veteran looks like he still has something to offer teams as he gears up for his age-29 campaign. On a minimum contract, Hunt could be a nice depth option for a Super Bowl hopeful like the Buffalo Bills.
Predicted Landing Spot: Buffalo Bills
Devin Singletary
The Houston Texans were fortunate to have signed Devin Singletary last year. Although the backfield was expected to be led by Dameon Pierce following a promising rookie campaign, the starter significantly regressed and ultimately lost his job in the back half of the 2023 season. Singletary picked up the slack, cobbling together one of the best years of his NFL career.
Houston should reward Singletary for those efforts with a new deal. According to KPRC 2's Aaron Wilson, the "interest is mutual" in a reunion, even if Singletary isn't the only back the Texans wind up courting this offseason. With $70 million in cap space, this franchise can afford to bring back Singletary and sign one of the several available stars off the open market.
Predicted Landing Spot: Houston Texans
Alexander Mattison
The Minnesota Vikings' choice to release Dalvin Cook and forge ahead with Alexander Mattison as their starting running back wasn't a great one. Mattison struggled to replicate the impressive performances he had filling in for Cook in years past, generating just 700 yards and failing to score a single touchdown on 180 carries.
Mattison now hits free agency with his value at an all-time low. He'll have to fight for a roster spot on a cheap deal, but there's still a chance he could turn things around in 2024. A team lacking cap room like the New Orleans Saints would be a sensible fit given the low-risk, high-reward potential of such a signing.
Predicted Landing Spot: New Orleans Saints
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