BS Meter on Biggest Rumors Coming out of the 2024 NFL Scouting Combine
The 2024 NFL Scouting Combine wrapped on Sunday, and it was another fruitful weekend in Indianapolis.
While many fans were focused on the interviews, drills and workouts of intriguing draft prospects, many of the league's decision-makers were focused on other matters. The combine is a tool for evaluating NFL hopefuls, but it's also a mass gathering of league executives, coaches and player agents.
A lot of discussions go on during combine week, and inevitably, rumors find their way out of Indianapolis. Of course, those rumors must be taken with a proverbial grain of salt because, with free agency and the draft rapidly approaching, teams are often eager to hide their true intentions with smokescreens.
Here, we'll subject some of the latest NFL buzz to a BS meter that ranges from one to 10—one being likely accurate, and 10 representing the total opposite.
Antoine Winfield Jr. Likely to Reset Safety Market
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The deadline for teams to exercise the franchise tag is at 4 p.m. on Tuesday. Several teams are eyeing difficult decisions regarding the tag, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are among them.
Tampa has multiple impending free agents who could be candidates for the tag, including quarterback Baker Mayfield, wideout Mike Evans and safety Antoine Winfield Jr. Of those three, Winfield might be the most logical candidate because, according to ESPN's Jeremy Fowler, he could potentially reset the safety market in free agency.
"There's a feeling from people inside the league I've spoken to that Winfield would reset the safety market in a new deal, either with Tampa Bay or as a free agent," Fowler wrote. "He was that good last season, finishing with 122 tackles, 6 sacks, 6 forced fumbles and 3 interceptions."
The argument against making Winfield the league's highest-paid safety is that he isn't a true lockdown coverage defender. This past season, for example, he allowed an opposing passer rating of 102.0.
That said, the first-team All-Pro does everything else at an elite level and has a penchant for making game-altering plays. Derwin James currently tops the safety market with an annual value of $19.1 million
Might someone from Winfield's camp be trying to overinflate his value ahead of free agency? Sure, but with playmakers at a premium and the salary cap at a record high, the 25-year-old probably is staring down a market-leading contract.
BS Meter: 2
Saquon Barkley Could Get the Franchise Tag Again
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The New York Giants gave star running back Saquon Barkley the franchise tag in 2023. While that kept their best offensive player in the fold for another year, it didn't yield a desirable return.
Barkley was fine when healthy and finished with 1,242 scrimmage yards and 10 touchdowns. However, he also missed three games and averaged just 3.9 yards per carry. Now, New York is right back where it was a year ago.
Tagging Barkley for a second straight season is a possibility—especially with an expanded salary cap—and, according to The Athletic's Dan Duggan, it is viewed as a "realistic possibility" by one source.
However, tagging Barkley again wouldn't be cheap. It would require a 20 percent raise over his 2023 salary ($10.1 million) bringing his one-year total to $12.1 million guaranteed. That's quite a lot in what has become a depressed RB market and would make Barkley the league's fifth-highest-paid running back in terms of annual salary.
It could be a relatively "safe" option for the Giants, though. Barkley will turn 28 before the start of the 2025 offseason, and he has a significant injury history. A second tag would allow New York to use the running back for one more year and move on before he hits the dreaded wall.
It would potentially present financial problems this season, though. New York has numerous roster needs and $35.3 million in projected cap space. Using a third of that space on a running back would be difficult to justify.
Barkley likely wants more long-term security, and New York very well could be leaking the threat of the tag to keep his long-term demands in check.
BS Meter: 7
Giants Eager to Trade Up to Draft a QB
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While the Giants are pondering the future of Barkley, they must also be considering their options at quarterback.
Daniel Jones was downright bad in 2023 before suffering a season-ending torn ACL. He threw just two touchdowns and six interceptions in six starts while posting a passer rating of 70.5.
Moving on from Jones this offseason is unlikely because he has $69.3 million in dead money remaining on his contract. This doesn't mean, though, that New York won't target his replacement.
According to SNY's Connor Hughes, the Giants are willing to trade up in the draft to secure their next signal-caller:
"The worst-kept secret of the NFL Combine might not just be the Giants' desire to select a quarterback in the upcoming NFL draft, but their willingness to trade up to go get a quarterback in this year's draft."
Trading up would be sensible. USC quarterback Caleb Williams is widely expected to go No. 1 overall, and North Carolina's Caleb Williams and LSU's Jayden Daniels could go right behind him. New York currently holds the sixth overall selection, and landing one of the top three QBs at No. 6 is unlikely.
Yet, this doesn't guarantee that the combine's "worst-kept secret" is entirely accurate. The Giants probably are interested in moving up, but they may be broadcasting their quarterback interest now in order to gauge the trade market for the sixth pick.
The Arizona Cardinals and Los Angeles Chargers, who own the fourth and fifth picks, respectively, aren't in the QB market and are likely to target other positions. If another team is heavily interested in a QB prospect like Michigan's J.J. McCarthy or Washington's Michael Penix Jr., the No. 6 spot could be a position to target.
The feeling here is that the Giants are hedging a bit here. They'll probably trade up if it makes sense, but if they were committed to doing so, why tell the world far in advance?
BS Meter: 5
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Commanders Have Received Trade Interest in No. 2 Pick
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It's looking more and more likely that Williams will go No. 1 overall to the Chicago Bears—and we'll dive more into that shortly. A quarterback is also likely to go No. 2 overall, and the Washington Commanders, who own that selection, could use a new franchise quarterback.
Washington hasn't publicly turned the page on 2023 starter Sam Howell, and they've hinted that Howell could be a 2024 option.
"We really like what we have in Sam right now. So we're really excited about that, too," general manager Adam Peters told reporters last month.
Peters could be blowing smoke in an effort to generate a trade market for Howell. However, if Washington does view him as a viable Plan B, they may not be sold on taking a quarterback at No. 2.
And the Commanders have already received interest in trading that selection.
"Washington has received trade inquiries from teams on the No. 2 pick. While they might not be hard, actionable offers, the interest in moving up is there," Fowler wrote.
Honestly, it would feel more like BS if the No. 2 reportedly wasn't generating interest. The Giants aren't the only team in the QB market that could consider moving up. The Atlanta Falcons, Minnesota Vikings, Denver Broncos and Las Vegas Raiders could all have interest in making a jump and all own picks inside the top 13.
If the Commanders ultimately want to move the No. 2 selection, they'll have the opportunity. Whether they actually flip the switch on a trade or even receive an enticing enough offer to do so is another story.
BS Meter: 1
Bears Ready to Trade Justin Fields, Draft Caleb Williams
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The No. 2 pick could become a highly coveted piece of draft capital because the Bears may not be willing to move the No. 1 pick at any reasonable price.
NFL Network's Ian Rapoport reported that it would take a "historic" haul for Chicago to part with the No. 1 pick—and that it's unlikely to happen.
"I have not yet talked to any team 1) willing to make that happen, or 2) that believes they can," Rapoport said on NFL Network (h/t Matt Clapp of The Comeback).
Drafting Williams would require the Bears to move on from 2021 first-round pick Justin Fields, but Chicago may have already reached a decision regarding its former quarterback of the future.
"Multiple league sources I spoke to believe the Bears are trying to move on from Justin Fields, who is entering the final year of his rookie contract," The Athletic's Dianna Russini wrote. "The team, which has the No. 1 and 9 picks, appears to be focused on using its first pick to select USC quarterback Caleb Williams."
Again, this one feels more likely than not. While Chicago's offense wasn't consistently good in 2023, Fields showed some real growth under offensive coordinator Luke Getsy. If the Bears were on the fence about moving on from Fields, they probably wouldn't have moved so quickly to replace Getsy with new offensive coordinator Shane Waldron.
There's the slightest chance that Chicago isn't 100 percent committed to Williams and is still trying to entice teams to make offers for the top pick, but it sure feels like Fields will be playing elsewhere in 2024.
BS Meter: 2
Falcons Prefer Kirk Cousins at Quarterback
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The Falcons are a team that could be interested in moving up for a quarterback or entering the Fields trade sweepstakes. However, reports suggest that Atlanta might be more interested in impending Minnesota Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins.
"Everybody I've talked to—agents, other coaches and scouts, guys around the league—that's the feeling that they are saying," Zach Klein of WBS in Atlanta said on Dukes and Bell on Thursday (h/t Matt Ehalt of the New York Post). "What they are hearing is that the Falcons will put all their attention on Kirk Cousins moving forward."
There are reasons for and against believing that Atlanta's interest in Cousins is real. On one hand, reported interest in a different quarterback could potentially help Atlanta in any trade talks it has with Chicago.
The Bears will presumably hope to get a premium return for Fields, but according to Russini "it was hard to find strong interest from any team" at the scouting combine.
If interest remains low, and the Falcons project Fields as their Plan B, they might be able to get Fields at a bargain.
On the other hand, making their interest in Cousins known now might help ensure that he actually reaches free agency.
"Cousins and his family like Minnesota and would be happy to stay and finish his career there, but it doesn't sound like he's willing to offer the team a hometown discount," ESPN's Dan Graziano wrote.
If Cousins knows that at least one other team is interested in making him an offer, he may reject Minnesota's offers and at least the market. That wouldn't guarantee that the Falcons land him, but it would give them the opportunity.
Given the fact that other teams don't appear to be clamoring for Fields, Atlanta's interest in Cousins may indeed be real.
BS Meter: 3
Kenny Pickett May Get Third-Year Opportunity in Pittsburgh
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The Pittsburgh Steelers have to decide whether to continue developing 2022 first-round pick Kenny Pickett or to consider other QB options. Pickett has shown little growth in his two seasons, and he was bad enough in 2023 that Mason Rudolph remained the starter after Pickett recovered from ankle surgery.
However, the hiring of Arthur Smith as offensive coordinator could reportedly buy Pickett another season as Pittsburgh's starter.
"The sentiment among many here in Indy—including some with the team—was that Pickett could get another chance after a disastrous 2023 season due in part to the offense's overall struggles under then-OC Matt Canada," Fowler wrote. "Smith should help maximize Pickett's skill set."
This one feels fishy, in part, because members of the Steelers organization are talking. And while Smith is an experienced coordinator, it's hard to tout him as the answer after he struggled to develop Desmond Ridder in Atlanta.
Head coach Mike Tomlin admitted after the season that he intended to bring in quarterback competition this offseason. The Steelers throwing public support behind Pickett now feels like a leverage play—possibly for Fields.
"There's been some conversation about the Pittsburgh Steelers, maybe something can be figured out there," ESPN's Adam Schefter said of a Fields trade on SportsCenter (h/t Nick Kosko of On3).
Last month, Schefter called Tomlin a "big fan" of Fields.
Pittsburgh may try to approach Chicago as if it views Fields as mere competition for Pickett. Let's be honest, though, while Fields is still an imperfect quarterback, he's flashed far more upside than Pickett and would likely replace him outright.
Pickett will most likely be on Pittsburgh's roster in 2024, but it's hard to believe that he'll enter training camp as the unquestioned starter or that the Steelers truly believe that Smith is poised to make him a star.
B.S. Meter: 9
Khalil Mack May Be Available in a Trade
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The Chargers are one of the NFL's more interesting teams this offseason, even though they're not in the quarterback market or expected to be major free-agency players. A lot of eyes will be on L.A. to see how new head coach Jim Harbaugh looks to retool the team heading into 2024.
The Chargers also have some difficult decisions to make, as they're barrelling toward free agency with a projected $25.1 million cap deficit. As Fowler noted, L.A. could create a sizable amount of cap space by moving or releasing some combination of Khalil Mack, Joey Bosa, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams—though moving all of them is unlikely.
"I'm leaving Indianapolis optimistic about Allen returning, possibly on a new or reworked deal," Fowler wrote. "A few teams asked me about Mack as a trade option, and it seems there's some interest there."
Mack is a very viable trade candidate because he was productive in 2023 and is set to carry a $38.5 million cap hit. Trading him before March 13 would save $23.3 million in cap space.
A team acquiring Mack would take on his $17.6 million base salary but would also be getting a pass-rusher who tallied 17 sacks and 36 quarterback pressures last season.
The Chargers can't expect a premium return for Mack, who is 33 and entering the final year of his contract. However, they should be able to get something respectable in a trade while taking a huge step toward addressing the cap.
L.A. may still prefer to keep Mack with a restructured deal, but the feeling here is that if another team is eager to land him, there's a path to a trade.
B.S. Meter: 3
Cap and contract information via Spotrac. Advanced statistics from Pro Football Reference.
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