Every MLB Team's Biggest X-Factor Heading Into 2024 Season
An X-Factor can make or break a Major League Baseball team's season.
In most cases, we'll be talking about a specific "wild card" type of player. It might be someone returning from injury, a mercurial closer or a second-year player hoping to build on a strong rookie season and avoid the dreaded sophomore slump.
But in some cases, it's a position group, like the Rays' shortstop situation, the Cubs' third-base predicament or the staying (healthy) power of the Yankees' starting rotation beyond Gerrit Cole.
In all cases, though, it's something that could turn an afterthought into a contender (or into a better equipped trade-deadline seller) if the X-Factor pans out, or something that could derail the postseason dreams of a World Series hopeful if the X-Factor misses the mark.
Teams are broken up by division and listed alphabetically within each division.
American League East
1 of 6
Baltimore Orioles: Craig Kimbrel at closer
Probably the biggest X-factor in all of baseball, right? Craig Kimbrel was fantastic last June and July as the Phillies rallied from their slow start to make the playoffs, but was also a season-ruining disaster in Games 3 and 4 of the NLCS.
Now Baltimore is bringing him in with hopes he can adequately replace Félix Bautista, aka the dominant closer who got some AL Cy Young votes despite missing the final five weeks of the regular season. If he's solid, the O's might become the favorite to win the AL. But if the almost 36-year-old is ineffective and is responsible for double-digit blown saves, does Baltimore even make the playoffs?
Boston Red Sox: Lucas Giolito
With Chris Sale making one full season's worth of starts (31) over the previous four years combined, the Red Sox took a calculated risk in shipping him to Atlanta for infielder Vaughn Grissom while also signing this free agent starting pitcher who bounced around between three teams last year. If Boston gets the 2019-21 version of Lucas Giolito who consistently earned Cy Young consideration, they just might have a shot at winning this loaded division.
But if they get 2022-23 Giolito AND fail to sign Jordan Montgomery, buckle up for a third consecutive sub-.500 year in the AL East basement with starting pitching being a big reason why.
New York Yankees: Pitching Health
Health is the primary X-factor for every single team in the league, but it's particularly pertinent to the Yankees, who will be relying upon three starters—Marcus Stroman, Carlos Rodón and Nestor Cortes—who both struggled to get outs and struggled to stay healthy last season. (Stroman was fantastic in the first half for the Cubs, but a nightmare from July 20 onward.)
If even two of the three can give the Yanks a healthy season at 75 percent the level of greatness they've been at when at their peak, this team will be in business.
Tampa Bay Rays: Shortstop
Despite making his last appearance of the season on August 12, Wander Franco led the 99-win 2023 Rays in bWAR. But with Franco perhaps permanently out of the picture, some combination of Taylor Walls, José Caballero, Amed Rosario and Junior Caminero will be tasked with replacing the production of a shortstop who was on his way to finishing top five in the AL MVP vote.
Will one of the four 'carpe diem' the gig, or will this spot in the lineup be a revolving door of comparative mediocrity, keeping Tampa Bay from sniffing its ceiling?
Toronto Blue Jays: Third Base
Like Tampa Bay, Toronto is replacing what had been an extremely valuable infielder with a handful of question marks. Can Isiah Kiner-Falefa do enough with his bat to hold down the job vacated by Matt Chapman? Can Justin Turner still man the hot corner at 39 years young? Is Eduardo Escobar going to crack the roster after his disastrous 2023 season? Is light-hitting Santiago Espinal the plan?
A great big unknown at what used to be one of Toronto's top strengths.
American League Central
2 of 6
Chicago White Sox: Dylan Cease's trade market
This is less of an X-factor that will impact Chicago's season and more of an X-factor that will impact the overall landscape of the 2024 campaign, but when will a team reach the point where it feels like it needs to trade for Dylan Cease? Who will that team be? And how much does that team give up to acquire the young ace who doesn't hit free agency until after 2025? And what if he gets off to a slow start after an underwhelming 2023?
Cleveland Guardians: Brayan Rocchio
The Guardians haven't made any significant moves this offseason to upgrade what was a fairly unproductive lineup in 2023, hitting 27 fewer home runs than any other team and only out-slugging the lowly Oakland A's. But if they hand the reins to 23-year-old Brayan Rocchio at shortstop, maybe that sparks...something. He did a whole lot of nothing in his 23 games played in the majors last season, but Rocchio had 40 home runs and 60 stolen bases over the past three seasons in the minors. Could be a considerable upgrade over the next to nothing they got out of their shortstop spot in 2023.
Detroit Tigers: Casey Mize
Casey Mize was the No. 1 overall pick in the 2018 draft, had a pretty respectable 2021 season for the Tigers and hasn't been seen since a week into the 2022 campaign thanks to Tommy John surgery. But he's back now, and could be a game-changer for a rotation which also added Jack Flaherty and Kenta Maeda this offseason—and which should have Tarik Skubal from Day One as opposed to getting him back from injury in July. This low-key could be a top-tier rotation, but perhaps only if Mize is able to pick up where he left off three seasons ago.
Kansas City Royals: Nelson Velázquez
Was last fall a legitimate breakout for Nelson Velázquez or a flash-in-the-pan six-week stretch? After getting traded from the Cubs to the Royals, Velázquez made his Kansas City debut on August 10 and proceeded to hit 14 home runs in just 147 trips to the plate. That 10.5 PA/HR ratio isn't quite on par with the 9.1 mark Barry Bonds had during his 73-HR campaign in 2001, but it's up there.
If this former Cub OF/DH can be for the Royals what another former Cub OF/DH (Jorge Soler) was for them in 2019 (48 HR, 117 RBI), watch out for a Royals team that did a ton of work improving its roster this offseason.
Minnesota Twins: The health of Royce Lewis and Byron Buxton
We already touched on the No. 1 pick in the 2018 draft, so how about the No. 1 pick from the year before that? There has never been any questioning Royce Lewis' talent when healthy, and it was awesome watching him mash four home runs in six games played this past postseason. But with just 118 games played across all levels since the end of 2019, what's a reasonable expectation for this season? Or for the oft-injured Byron Buxton? If the pair manages to play a combined 300 games in 2024, Minnesota maybe cruises to the AL Central crown. If they combine for 120 games, though? That'd be trouble.
American League West
3 of 6
Houston Astros: Jake Meyers and José Abreu
After five consecutive 162-game seasons in which the Astros won the AL West with some room to spare, they were arguably too patient as José Abreu sputtered through his first 50 games without a home run, and probably had too long of a leash with Jake Meyers, who started 87 games despite a .678 OPS. And they almost missed the playoffs because of it. If Abreu, Meyers or someone else gets out to a similarly rough start this season, will last year's photo finish give them more of a sense of urgency to fix the problem?
Los Angeles Angels: The Angels in general?
For a team not expected to be all that competitive this season, there are a whole lot of players in this lineup who could be potential breakout stars (Logan O'Hoppe, Nolan Schanuel, Zach Neto), players who have had somewhat prolonged stretches of great play in the past (Luis Rengifo, Taylor Ward, Mickey Moniak, Brandon Drury) or former superstars who just need to stay healthy for a change (Mike Trout, Anthony Rendon).
It's hard to imagine all of those panning out, but can you imagine the "Ewing Theory" narratives if most of them do play well and the Angels finally make the playoffs the first year after losing Shohei Ohtani?
Oakland A's: The other Max Muncy
We have not spent enough time in our lives marveling at the fact that the Oakland A's drafted two wholly unrelated players named Max Muncy. You know the first one, who has been mashing with the Dodgers since the A's released him in 2017. And this season, you might get to know the other one, who the A's drafted 25th overall three summers ago.
Oakland's shortstop gig currently looks like a tossup among Nick Allen, Darell Hernaiz and Aledmys Diaz, but maybe the highly touted 21-year-old wins the job out of camp, or plays his way into it later in the year.
Seattle Mariners: The second-year starting pitchers
Content with the job that Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo did last year as rookies—and wanting to improve in other areas—the Mariners traded away Robbie Ray and Marco Gonzales this offseason. But now those two have gone from "pleasant surprises" to "an indispensable 40 percent of the rotation." If they experience sophomore slumps, Emerson Hancock and Jackson Kowar could be options. But that wouldn't be ideal.
Texas Rangers: Dane Dunning
When the Rangers brought in Jacob deGrom, Nathan Eovaldi and Andrew Heaney last offseason, it was in part because Dane Dunning had been not quite effective enough over the previous two years. But when deGrom went down, Dunning became a key fixture in the rotation.
With so many starters AWOL for the first few months of 2024, they're going to again need him to step up in a big way. Once some combination of deGrom, Max Scherzer and Tyler Mahle is good to go, Dunning could still be key as a middle reliever.
.jpg?w=256)
National League East
4 of 6
Atlanta Braves: Jarred Kelenic
Jarred Kelenic got out to a hot start last season, seeming to finally deliver on the "was neck-and-neck with Julio Rodríguez in prospect rankings" hype. But over his final 46 games with Seattle, he hit .229 with no home runs and suffered a self-inflicted broken foot from kicking a water cooler. So, is he the answer in left for Atlanta? And what is this team with virtually no positional depth going to do if he isn't?
Miami Marlins: Josh Bell and Jake Burger
Both of these trade deadline acquisitions played significantly better over their final two months in Miami than they did for the first four months in the AL Central. Josh Bell had an .818 OPS with the Marlins. Jake Burger's was .860. But do they continue to produce at a high level for a team that otherwise only has one returning player who posted an OPS of .780 or better (Luis Arráez)? Or will this offense be an absolute disaster sans Jorge Soler?
New York Mets: Kodai Senga
The lone sure thing in the Mets starting rotation is no longer a sure thing. Kodai Senga only made it a few days into spring training before shoulder fatigue resulted in a PRP shot that will have him on the IL on Opening Day. And if it's a while before he gets on the mound, that could just about ensure a trade deadline fire sale for the ages, with Pete Alonso, Luis Severino, José Quintana, Harrison Bader and much more among their expiring free agents.
Philadelphia Phillies: Whit Merrifield
An intriguing depth addition, Whit Merrifield figures to be a super sub for the Phillies. He's a good hitter, a better baserunner and a versatile glove who could serve as a pinch hitter, pinch runner or defensive replacement for Nick Castellanos on a nearly nightly basis. And when the trade deadline rolls around, he could be an intriguing chip to put on the block—maybe a little three-team action in which the Phillies get a reliever.
Washington Nationals: Joey Gallo
Since the beginning of 2017, only about a dozen players have hit more home runs than Joey Gallo. But despite all that power, the left-handed slugger has a triple-slash line of .181/.315/.416 since the beginning of 2020 and might not get another chance in the majors if his flounders on this one-year, $5 million deal with the Nats. (Even end-career Miguel Cabrera slugged .417 from 2020-23.) Conversely, Gallo might mash his way into becoming one of the hottest commodities on the trade block, as was the case last year for Washington with Jeimer Candelario.
National League Central
5 of 6
Chicago Cubs: Third Base
Re-signing Cody Bellinger was huge, even if it was possibly just for one more season. He figures to slot in as the primary first baseman, but third base is still a sizable question mark.
That's not for lack of options, though. If Pete Crow-Armstrong is the primary center fielder, the Cubs could make Mike Tauchman their main DH and plant Christopher Morel at the hot corner. Or Nick Madrigal could win the job. Or they might give Patrick Wisdom one more chance. But if they find something that works at third, they should be a real contender, and not just in the NL Central.
Cincinnati Reds: Nick Lodolo
Over the final three months of the 2022 campaign, Nick Lodolo made 16 starts with a 3.35 ERA and an 11.4 K/9, finishing sixth for NL Rookie of the Year while barely logging 100 innings.
Last year was a much different story, though, lasting just seven starts (one gem, two duds, 6.29 ERA overall) before suffering a season-ending leg fracture. Cincinnati needed pitching. It signed four free agent pitchers. But getting Lodolo back to what he was two years ago would be massive to pair alongside Hunter Greene and Graham Ashcraft at the top of the rotation.
Milwaukee Brewers: Rhys Hoskins
The year after Ronald Acuña Jr. suffered a torn ACL, he was nowhere near the same player, slugging more than 100 points worse than every other season he has played. But Royce Lewis certainly looked no worse for wear last season, playing at a high level after tearing his ACL for the second time in his young career. Which path does Rhys Hoskins take? And if he is more Lewis than Acuña, will it be enough for the Brewers to salvage what is expected to be a down year?
Pittsburgh Pirates: Oneil Cruz
Alright, fine, one more NL Central player coming back from a devastating leg injury. Oneil Cruz suffered a broken leg on a collision at home plate last April, appearing in just nine games before what ended up being a season-ending injury.
He was a very highly touted prospect who had 17 home runs and 10 stolen bases in about half a season in the majors in 2022. Following the offseason acquisitions of Rowdy Tellez, Aroldis Chapman, Martín Pérez and more, Pittsburgh could be sneaky decent if Cruz shines in his return to the diamond.
St. Louis Cardinals: Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson
Expect Sonny Gray and Miles Mikolas to fair well atop the Cardinals starting rotation, but what will they get from 36-year-olds Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson? Neither veteran arm was impressive last season, save for the first five starts after Lynn got traded from the White Sox to the Dodgers and temporarily recaptured his 2019-21 Cy Young-caliber form. And if they are little more than ineffective innings eaters, there really isn't another good option here.
National League West
6 of 6
Arizona Diamondbacks: Brandon Pfaadt
A top pitching prospect heading into last season, Brandon Pfaadt had a rough regular season, making 19 appearances with a 5.72 ERA. But he was a crucial asset in October for the D-Backs, logging 19.1 innings with a 2.33 ERA over his final four appearances of the postseason.
Can he keep that switch flipped and become maybe the best No. 4 starter in any rotation in the majors, or will he revert to what he was during the regular season and perhaps prevent Arizona from getting back to the playoffs?
Colorado Rockies: Brenton Doyle
It's going to take more than one or two positive surprises for the Rockies to amount to anything this season, but might they at least have a legitimate building block in Brenton Doyle? He didn't hit well (.203 AVG) as a rookie in 2023, but he does have 25 HR/25 SB potential and won a Gold Glove for his work in the outfield. Very interested to see what he can do in year No. 2.
Los Angeles Dodgers: Bobby Miller
In a perfect world, Walker Buehler comes back at full strength on Opening Day, both Tyler Glasnow and James Paxton stay healthy and both Dustin May and Clayton Kershaw make triumphant returns in the summer to an over-crowded rotation.
In reality, the Dodgers are likely going to need second-year budding ace Bobby Miller to shoulder a heavy load alongside Yoshinobu Yamamoto. And if Miller can pitch at a "good enough to stay in the rotation even when everyone is healthy" level, the all-time single-season record for team wins could be in danger.
San Diego Padres: Jackson Merrill
Ready or not, San Diego's first-round pick in the 2021 draft could be on the Opening Day roster. 20-year-old Jackson Merrill was respectable last season in the minors, hitting .277 with 15 home runs and 15 stolen bases between high-A and double-A ball. But this team is simply lacking for outfield options, even after the recent signing of Jurickson Profar.
We'll see if Merrill can do enough in spring training to lock down the gig in left field, which could be a game-changer for the Padres.
San Francisco Giants: Jordan Hicks
The Giants no longer have five of the eight pitchers who made at least 10 starts for them in 2023.
They wanted Yoshinobu Yamamoto. They've had every opportunity to sign Blake Snell or Jordan Montgomery. But other than trading for Robbie Ray—who won't return from Tommy John surgery until probably July at the earliest—all the Giants have added to their rotation this offseason is Jordan Hicks, who has four times as many saves (32) as games started in his career (eight).
A bold decision to say the least, and things could go sideways in a hurry if Hicks' conversion to starter is unsuccessful.
.jpg?w=480)
.jpg?w=600 "Vrabel Seeking Counseling")
.jpg?w=600 "Former President Crashes Cowboys Presser")
.jpg?w=600 "Cardinals May Be Bluffing Pick")
