Cody Bellinger and Other MLB Free Agents Who Need to Be Signed ASAP
By all rights, Major League Baseball's free-agent market should be picked clean by now. Spring training is underway, so it should be out with the offseason and in with the season.
Yet here we are, still in a position to beg teams to sign the best players available. And we're not talking about nobodies here. There are four legitimate stars out there, as well as basically a lifetime supply's worth of useful role players.
In this case, the spotlight is on the 10 best players left from the top 100 that B/R's Joel Reuter put together at the outset of the 2023-24 offseason. There's not much left to be said about these guys that hasn't already been said, but here's what's different about today's exercise: Only optimism is allowed.
Though the warts each player comes with can't be ignored, they can at least be downplayed. That's basically the idea here, wherein only the case for signing each player matters.
Let's begin with some honorable mentions and then count 'em down.
Honorable Mentions
1 of 11
OF Eddie Rosario
Original Rank: 55
Rosario may be limited in what he's capable of, but what he is capable of is playing every day in a starting role and hitting north of 20 home runs.
LHP Hyun-Jin Ryu
Original Rank: 52
Ryu has had a normal winter after coming back from Tommy John surgery last summer. And even then, he was still an excellent control artist who managed contact well, including with a 71st-percentile ground-ball rate.
1B/DH Brandon Belt
Original Rank: 50
Belt is strictly a platoon hitter against right-handers at this stage of his career, but the .890 OPS and 19 homers that he posted against righties last year are the proof in the general pudding of the idea.
OF Adam Duvall
Original Rank: 46
It was only two years ago that Duvall hit 38 homers and led the National League in runs batted in, and even a broken wrist didn't keep him from salvaging an .834 OPS and 21 homers last year.
SS Amed Rosario
Original Rank: 44
Rosario had a rough one in 2023, but he's still only 28 years old, and it was as recently as 2022 that he narrowly missed ranking as a top-10 shortstop by rWAR.
RHP Michael Lorenzen
2 of 11
Age: 32
2023 Stats: 29 G, 25 GS, 153.0 IP, 138 H (20 HR), 111 K, 47 BB, 4.18 ERA
Original Rank: 39
Michael Lorenzen peaked last year, both generally in the sense that he was an All-Star for the first time and more specifically in that he twirled a no-hitter on Aug. 9.
It was after that when Lorenzen basically petered out, as he went from having a 3.23 ERA to finishing nearly a full run higher by the end of the year. It's otherwise not the best look that not much from his Statcast profile stands out in a positive way.
Yet let's give the guy a break. Lorenzen had already surpassed his previous career high for innings (113.1) by the time he went into that no-hitter, so it's no wonder he was already struggling to maintain velocity. If he was gassed, well, who could blame him?
The hope should be that last season effectively built Lorenzen up to handle more innings in 2024. And if not, there's always the bullpen. He's spent most of his career as a multi-inning fireman, a role in which he's done just fine to the tune of a 3.79 ERA.
Best Fits: San Diego Padres, Minnesota Twins, Chicago Cubs, Tampa Bay Rays, Los Angeles Angels, Baltimore Orioles
The first five teams were linked to Lorenzen by MLB.com's Jon Morosi on Feb. 11, whereas the Angels and Orioles make sense in that both need rotation depth. Yet the Padres make the most sense for him, as he'd be a solid No. 4 in their rotation.
OF Tommy Pham
3 of 11
Age: 35
2023 Stats: 129 G, 481 PA, 16 HR, 22 SB, .256 AVG, .328 OBP, .446 SLG
Original Rank: 38
Tommy Pham is the guy to call if you need a starting outfielder. Or a platoon outfielder. Or an everyday designated hitter. Or a...look, just call the guy, alright?
Pham has been an above-average hitter more often than not throughout his 10-year career, failing to crack a 100 OPS+ just once in a full season. Last year was more of the same in this sense, though Pham perhaps deserved even better.
He wasn't subpar with any of his under-the-hood batting metrics, which included average exit velocity in the 93rd percentile and a hard-hit rate in the 89th percentile. Were he to carry such things over to 2024, he could perhaps collect on some outstanding good luck.
At the least, he can be counted on to mash left-handers. He has an .834 OPS against them for his career, and has thrice achieved a .900-plus OPS against them in a single season.
Best Fits: San Diego Padres, Boston Red Sox, Miami Marlins, Philadelphia Phillies, Los Angeles Angels, New York Mets
The Padres could use Pham both in left field and at designated hitter, so it was no surprise when Dennis Lin of The Athletic tied them to him. He's also familiar with new manager Mike Shildt, so San Diego is the pick here, too.
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SS Tim Anderson
4 of 11
Age: 30
2023 Stats: 123 G, 524 PA, 1 HR, 13 SB, .245 AVG, .286 OBP, .296 SLG
Original Rank: 33
Even the phrase "fall from grace" doesn't capture what happened to Tim Anderson last year. He went from being an All-Star and an elite hitter to the single worst player in MLB.
However, he was also playing hurt. Though he was obviously able to return from the left MCL sprain he sustained in April, he was open at the end of the year about how it "kind of messed with me hitting."
Granted, Anderson also spent ample time on the injured list in 2022, resulting in a relative dearth of productivity over the last two seasons. There's nonetheless a clearly intriguing possibility at play here: If healthy, will he hit like Tim Anderson again?
He's not yet at a point in his career where a "Yes" should be dismissed offhand. And now that Xander Bogaerts is a second baseman, a return to form on Anderson's part could result in him being one of maybe two or three shortstops who hit over .300 this year.
Best Fits: Miami Marlins, Los Angeles Angels, San Francisco Giants, Oakland Athletics
Though those three other teams should be in on Anderson, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported on Friday that the Marlins actually have an offer out to him. They need a clear answer at shortstop, and there's potentially no limit on the hits he and Luis Arraez could rack up as teammates.
OF Michael A. Taylor
5 of 11
Age: 32
2023 Stats: 129 G, 388 PA, 21 HR, 13 SB, .220 AVG, .278 OBP, .442 SLG
Original Rank: 30
If a team isn't sure about its starter in center field, well, Michael A. Taylor is right there.
At the absolute least, he's qualified to be a late-inning defensive replacement. He's tallied 56 Outs Above Average since 2016. A solid sum for anyone, much less a guy who's only started in 54 percent of all possible games since then.
Otherwise, last year saw Taylor prove that there's pretty good power to be wrung out of him in a semi-everyday role. He homered in 5.4 percent of his plate appearances, or just a hair short of the 5.6 percentage with which Ronald Acuña Jr. went yard.
Even if they don't necessarily excuse it, these things make it that much easier to forgive Taylor for being so bad at getting on base. He's likely no worse than a 2-WAR player, which is more than can be said about even some supposed "stars" in the league today.
Best Fits: Minnesota Twins, Los Angeles Angels, San Diego Padres, Pittsburgh Pirates, Washington Nationals, Philadelphia Phillies
These teams have some kind of need in center field, but it's the Twins who stand out as being especially sensible for Taylor. They know from last year that he works as an insurance option for Byron Buxton, and they'd do well to sign him to play that role again in 2024.
RHP Mike Clevinger
6 of 11
Age: 33
2023 Stats: 24 G, 24 GS, 131.1 IP, 121 H (16 HR), 110 K, 40 BB, 3.77 ERA
Original Rank: 22
Mike Clevinger missed all of 2021 after having Tommy John surgery, and nobody can say he's been the same guy since he came back.
The biggest difference is the rate at which he strikes batters out, which was merely 20 percent last year after peaking at 33.9 percent back in 2019. And at his age, there's probably no turning back the clock now.
Clevinger was nonetheless a source of above-average innings last year, for which it helped that he generally threw strikes and mostly stifled hard contact. Indeed, his hard-hit rate landed in the 72nd percentile.
Prospective buyers with hitter-friendly stadiums should beware that Clevinger is an extreme fly-ball pitcher. But if anything, that should heighten his appeal to prospective buyers with pitcher-friendly stadiums that give no quarter to balls in the air.
Best Fits: Baltimore Orioles, Pittsburgh Pirates, San Diego Padres, Washington Nationals, Los Angeles Angels
No team has been solidly linked to Clevinger since the start of the offseason, so this list is wholly speculative. The Pirates are his best fit from the aforementioned ballpark perspective, as only Comerica Park suppresses home run power more than PNC Park.
DH J.D. Martinez
7 of 11
Age: 36
2023 Stats: 113 G, 479 PA, 33 HR, 1 SB, .271 AVG, .321 OBP, .572 SLG
Original Rank: 16
J.D. Martinez isn't without red flags these days, including one big one pertaining to swings and misses.
Last year saw him finish with career-worst marks for whiff rate (34.4 percent) and strikeout rate (31.1 percent). He was especially bedeviled by breaking and off-speed stuff, which could lead one to speculate that he might have been cheating to get ahead on fastballs.
Yet Martinez still made a triumphant return to the conversation of the game's best sluggers. His exit velocity, hard-hit rate and barrel rate were all in the 98th percentile, and the 6.9 percentage with which he hit home runs put him just below Pete Alonso (7.0 percent).
Even if he can't be counted on to stay healthy throughout the year, this is a guy fit to bat in the middle of just about any lineup. The right time to sign him was frankly yesterday.
Best Fits: New York Mets, Los Angeles Angels, San Diego Padres, Minnesota Twins
As much as those other three teams could use help in the DH spot, the Mets have always been the most obvious landing spot for Martinez. Their likelihood of actually signing him remains suspect, but Mike Puma of the New York Post reported on Feb. 6 that the two sides have had an ongoing "dialogue."
3B Matt Chapman
8 of 11
Age: 30
2023 Stats: 140 G, 581 PA, 17 HR, 4 SB, .240 AVG, .330 OBP, .424 SLG
Original Rank: 8
Matt Chapman is no longer the guy who was outpaced by only three other position players in rWAR across 2018 and 2019, but that's OK.
One could argue it's not on account of how volatile Chapman has become as a hitter, and that'd be fair. His whiff (18th percentile) and strikeout (16th percentile) rates were awful last year, and he of course posted a middling .659 OPS after conquering April with a 1.152 OPS.
Yet any team that could squeeze just a little more contact out of Chapman may stand to reap huge benefits. The quality of his contact wasn't the issue last season, especially to the extent that he landed in the 100th percentile with his hard-hit rate.
Then there's his defense, which remains on the side of elite. Last year saw Chapman collect his fourth Gold Glove, which almost feels like an undercount given that he leads all infielders with 92 Defensive Runs Saved since 2016.
Best Fits: San Francisco Giants, Chicago Cubs, Seattle Mariners, Los Angeles Angels
The Giants and Cubs make the most sense for Chapman, though Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times' report on the Mariners' interest is nothing if not intriguing. Yet I like the Angels as a dark horse for Chapman, especially now that Anthony Rendon sounds on the verge of nope-ing the heck out of his MLB career.
LHP Jordan Montgomery
9 of 11
Age: 31
2023 Stats: 32 G, 32 GS, 188.2 IP, 177 H (18 HR), 166 K, 48 BB, 3.20 ERA
Original Rank: 7
It's OK to be nervous about Jordan Montgomery. He's not overpowering, after all, nor is he especially good at managing contact.
But when it comes down to it, the lefty has been one of the better starters in MLB for a while now. His rise started when the New York Yankees traded him to the St. Louis Cardinals in 2022. Since then, he's a top-10 pitcher by RA-9 WAR.
The least Montgomery will do for whichever team signs him is soak up innings. He ranks 13th in total innings over the last two seasons, and some of the names underneath him include Zack Wheeler, Kevin Gausman, Dylan Cease and Luis Castillo.
Otherwise, that Montgomery's effectiveness is hard to explain with numbers doesn't mean it doesn't exist. There really isn't a good measure of deceptiveness, yet anyone who really pays attention to how he pitches will see it's what he gets by on.
Best Fits: San Francisco Giants, Boston Red Sox, Philadelphia Phillies, Los Angeles Angels, New York Yankees
Whereas the Texas Rangers seem out of the running, all five of these teams were linked to Montgomery by Jon Heyman of the New York Post last month. The Red Sox need him the most, though him signing with the Phillies would be a sort of unsurprising surprise. They don't need an ace, but they're purportedly a candidate for a sneak attack on one.
CF/1B Cody Bellinger
10 of 11
Age: 28
2023 Stats: 130 G, 556 PA, 26 HR, 20 SB, .307 AVG, .356 OBP, .525 SLG
Original Rank: 5
Cody Bellinger is just 28, and he's already been a Rookie of the Year, an MVP, an All-Star, a Silver Slugger, a Gold Glover and a World Series champion.
You'd think a guy like this would have signed for a whole bunch of money by now. That he hasn't is likely owed to his admittedly sketchy injury history, his shoddy contact quality from last season or some mix of both.
Yet the latter, at least, is overblown. Bellinger deliberately sacrificed hard contact in exchange for well-placed contact in two-strike counts last year. And his power was really only absent in May and June, as he hit all 26 of his homers in the season's other four months.
It's possible that 2023 represents not Bellinger's current ceiling, but rather his current floor. If so, we know from his 2017 and 2019 seasons what his real ceiling looks like.
Best Fits: Chicago Cubs, San Francisco Giants, Los Angeles Angels, Toronto Blue Jays
It's long seemed like Cubs-or-bust for Bellinger, but owner Tom Ricketts implied Monday that the two sides' talks haven't risen to the level of negotiation yet. Yet the smart money is still on a reunion, as none of those other three teams is an especially natural fit for Bellinger.
LHP Blake Snell
11 of 11
Age: 31
2023 Stats: 32 G, 32 GS, 180.0 IP, 115 H (15 HR), 234 K, 99 BB, 2.25 ERA
Original Rank: 4
OK, so, Blake Snell isn't an efficient pitcher. He's walked 4.1 batters per nine innings for his career, and nobody's going to miss that his high of 5.0 per nine innings came last year.
But if ever there was a good way to get away with that, it's by being borderline impossible to hit. That's been Snell's jam as he's held hitters to just a .203 average over the last seven seasons, all while averaging just south of 12 strikeouts (11.7, to be exact) per nine innings.
It's doubtful that Snell will keep his average fastball in the 95-96 mph range as he ages, but it's some comfort that it's not his key weapon. He more so thrives on his curveball, slider and changeup, each of which had a whiff rate north of 45 percent last year.
He's thus a solid bet to keep providing ace-caliber innings. Maybe only six at a time, mind you, but ace-caliber innings are ace-caliber innings are ace-caliber innings.
Best Fits: New York Yankees, Los Angeles Angels, Philadelphia Phillies
The Yankees have an offer out to Snell, according to Mark Feinsand of MLB.com, but it might still be easier to imagine him signing with either of those other two teams. The Angels' rotation needs the splash, and there would seem to be enough payroll space there for Snell.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
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