Updated Win-Loss Predictions for Every NBA Team
The NBA All-Star break gives everyone a chance to catch their breath.
The stretch run of the 2023-24 season is ahead, and it's anyone's guess as to what will happen.
Or, rather it's our guess what's about to go down, as we're playing the predicting game 30 times over with updated win-loss projections for every team.
Atlanta Hawks (36-46)
1 of 30
This could be the final few months of this iteration of the Hawks as we know it. Since reaching the 2021 Eastern Conference Finals, they've been knocked out of the first round twice and are currently clinging to the final play-in tournament invitation in the East.
They kicked around the idea of overhauling their roster ahead of the deadline, a process that even involved making All-Star guard Trae Young "available," as an Eastern Conference executive told The Ringer's Howard Beck.
Between the serious big-picture questions hanging above this club and its spotty performance to date (22nd in win percentage and net rating), there's no reason to think the Hawks are on the cusp of figuring things out. They'll play the same uneven ball down the stretch that they've played all season.
Boston Celtics (63-19)
2 of 30
With a six-game cushion on the second-seeded Cleveland Cavaliers and massive question marks surrounding their presumed toughest challengers (the Milwaukee Bucks and Philadelphia 76ers), the Celtics are a real candidate to throw it in cruise control at any moment during the stretch run.
Even if Boston starts monitoring the minutes of its best players, though, this team has enough talent and depth to keep piling up wins at a league-leading rate.
Despite making a slew of deep playoff runs in recent seasons, the Celtics figure to be as hungry as anyone given their inability to win the big one. In other words, even if they ease up on the gas pedal a pinch, they won't dial things back too much, as they'll want to maintain their rhythm and carry maximum momentum into the postseason.
Brooklyn Nets (29-53)
3 of 30
The Nets could've been much more active at the trade deadline, when they wound up brokering two deals that brought back Dennis Schröder and three second-round picks. Based on how listless they've looked of late, they should've done a lot more future-focused wheeling and dealing.
Brooklyn split its first 30 games right down the middle. Since then, the Nets have gone a disastrous 6-18 while posting the league's fifth-worst net rating (minus-6.2). They entered the All-Star break having dropped five of their last six outings, a stretch lowlighted by the 50-point drubbing delivered by the Celtics last Wednesday.
Their talent just isn't where it needs to be for them to climb the competitive ranks. As Mikal Bridges put it bluntly after that 50-point thrashing, "A lot of s--t is not right."
Charlotte Hornets (19-63)
4 of 30
Trade-season subtractions of Gordon Hayward, Terry Rozier and P.J. Washington shifted Charlotte's focus firmly to the future—where it should've been all along—but those trades apparently also energized this roster. The Hornets entered the All-Star break amid a season-high three-game winning streak, a stretch keyed by Brandon Miller, Miles Bridges and virtually all of the Hornets' newcomers.
That mini-surge probably won't amount to much more, though, especially if LaMelo Ball continues battling the injury bug. Charlotte's 22-year-old centerpiece played just 22 of the team's first 54 games, and who's to say his luck will turn any time soon.
The Hornets are wisely building a hive of up-and-comers, but they need more blue-chippers. They'll spend the stretch run developing the young talent they have and improving their lottery odds in hopes of expanding their core.
Chicago Bulls (38-44)
5 of 30
For reasons known only to them, the Bulls opted to snooze through the trade deadline for the third consecutive year. Never mind that they had established talent to offer and could've charged a premium in that sellers' market—they're still sticking to the idea that a present play-in tourney invite is more valuable than long-term roster-building assets.
"We didn't see anything that was going to make us better," Bulls executive vice president of basketball operations Artūras Karnišovas said of the inactivity. "We would take a step back, which we don't want. We want to stay competitive."
Chicago's roster is fine, which is wholly uninspiring for the big picture but good enough to produce a near-.500 finish. That's a target that doesn't interest many teams, but the Bulls have shown time and again they're more than willing to chase it.
Cleveland Cavaliers (55-27)
6 of 30
Since the calendar flipped to 2024, the Cavaliers have gone a blistering 18-3 with a league-best plus-14.5 net rating. It's quite possible, then, that projecting a 19-10 finish for this club might be selling it short.
Then again, this was an 18-14 team ahead of the surge, so perhaps it's playing a pinch above its head at the moment. Cleveland's offense still slows to a halt when Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen join forces in the frontcourt (110.6 offensive rating over 415 minutes, would rank 27th), and Donovan Mitchell's MVP candidacy has coincided with some statistical declines by Darius Garland.
The Cavs are clearly clicking right now, but it feels like some regression is coming. Plus, there could easily be a point late in the season when it becomes obvious they'll be locked into the No. 2 seed, as they're six games back of the Celtics and 2.5 games up on a Milwaukee Bucks team that has dropped seven of its first 10 games under new coach Doc Rivers.
Dallas Mavericks (48-34)
7 of 30
The Mavericks headed into the All-Star break with a season-high six-game winning streak in hand. That stretch coincides with Kyrie Irving's return from a sprained right thumb.
Turns out, having a co-star who can take over a game alongside your MVP candidate (Luka Dončić) is kinda helpful. Who knew? It also doesn't hurt that Dallas' frontcourt received two reinforcements at the deadline in Daniel Gafford and P.J. Washington, and then they got another when rookie rim-runner Dereck Lively II made his return just before the deadline.
The Mavs could do better than this projected 16-11 finish, but that feels like a realistic win rate for a club that's often looked good this season but seldom seemed great.
Denver Nuggets (53-29)
8 of 30
After winning 31 of their first 45 games this season, the defending-champion Nuggets split their final 10 outings ahead of the All-Star break. That stretch culminated with a three-game losing streak during which Denver's offense managed just 99.7 points per game on 41.1/31.6/76.1 shooting.
"I think everybody needs a break," Nuggets swingman Aaron Gordon told reporters. "Everybody needs some rest. I think that's what it comes down to."
The Nuggets have dealt with injuries of late, but they also feel like the kind of club that's pacing itself for another lengthy playoff run. They could ignite at any moment, obviously, but they don't seem like a team that will run itself ragged in search of a higher playoff seed.
Detroit Pistons (15-67)
9 of 30
Someone sound the 2023-24 Pistons' battle cry: We're not the worst! We're not the worst!
OK, so this mark would still give Detroit one of this season's worst records, but this wouldn't be a historic level of futility. And considering how bleak things appeared amid the club's 3-36 start, that's an accomplishment.
The Pistons have been spunky(ish) of late, keeping competitive against several good teams and even knocking off the Oklahoma City Thunder and Sacramento Kings. Jaden Ivey can run fiery hot, Jalen Duren is a walking double-double and Cade Cunningham stuffs the heck out of the stat sheet. Marcus Sasser could shoot his way to a Pistons win. Ausar Thompson may hustle them to another. A 7-21 finish feels doable.
Golden State Warriors (44-38)
10 of 30
The Warriors went 8-2 over their final 10 games before intermission and posted the fourth-best net rating of this stretch (plus-9.8). They've made a few formula tweaks that have seemingly all panned out, whether that's starting Draymond Green at center, clearing a path for their young prospects to play and even shifting Klay Thompson over to the second unit, where he popped for a season-high 35 points in his first reserve appearance since his rookie year.
"Throughout the game, when I'm running with the second unit, I realized I might be more of a focal point to the offense," Thompson said. "That's a fun role to play. I just wanted to take it upon myself to prove to coach [Steve Kerr] that I was going to respond like the champ I am."
As frustrating as this season has been, Golden State might be figuring some things out at the right time. For instance, this new-look starting five—with rookie Brandin Podziemski in Thompson's place alongside Green, Stephen Curry, Jonathan Kuminga and Andrew Wiggins—has a bulldozing plus-26 net rating over 107 minutes.
Houston Rockets (39-43)
11 of 30
Houston's offseason spending indicated an obvious desire to get more competitive, and the Rockets have clearly done that. The 24 wins they tallied ahead of the All-Star break were already their most since 2019-20, when Mike D'Antoni was calling the shots and James Harden was running the offense.
The dominant defense they played earlier this season, though, has started to show some cracks. They ranked just 12th in defensive efficiency over their final 20 games after being fifth ahead of this slippage.
Houston doesn't have enough offensive firepower to offset any defensive decline, so if it can't reverse this trend, it could be in for a bumpy finish. Saying that, though, the Rockets will surely keep pushing until the end, as it's almost certainly too late to bottom out in a way that would keep the top-four protected pick they owe the Oklahoma City Thunder this summer from conveying.
Indiana Pacers (49-33)
12 of 30
The Pacers haven't exactly set the hoops world ablaze since acquiring Pascal Siakam. They are just 7-8 with a minus-1.0 net rating since his debut.
So, why are we projecting this team to sprint toward an 18-8 finish? Because the talent is in place to make that happen, and this All-Star break gives coach Rick Carlisle time to bring all of the puzzle pieces together.
Between Siakam, All-Star guard Tyrese Haliburton and two-way center Myles Turner, Indiana has the foundation to embark on that kind of tear. That trio has logged 168 minutes together across eight contests and outscored opponents by 11.2 points per 100 possessions so far.
Los Angeles Clippers (55-27)
13 of 30
The Clippers dropped eight of their first 13 games after acquiring James Harden. They've gone 28-7 while posting the league's fifth-highest net rating (plus-6.6) ever since.
A healthy Kawhi Leonard is a legitimate MVP candidate, and Paul George cracks the short list of the game's best sidekicks. Harden has done a masterful job of picking his spots, Norman Powell has packed a powerful scoring punch while building his Sixth Man of the Year case and Russell Westbrook has found utility as the second unit's floor general.
This team has enough high-end talent where it could do something wild, like winning 25 of its final 29 games. We'll project a less potent 19-10 closing stretch, accounting for the possibilities of some injury troubles (always a worry with this group) or a few cold shooting nights.
Los Angeles Lakers (43-39)
14 of 30
Are the Lakers maybe, possibly, hopefully on the verge of figuring things out? It's too early to say for certain, but things were trending that way before the schedule sent this squad into its midseason break.
L.A. won six of its final seven games ahead of intermission and went 5-0 in games started by LeBron James, Anthony Davis, Rui Hachimura, D'Angelo Russell and Austin Reaves. Those are arguably the five best players on the roster, so letting them open games and giving them as many minutes together as possible makes all kinds of sense.
All of that said, even that group doesn't feature much defense in the backcourt or spacing up front, which speaks to the fact this remains a flawed roster. Not to mention that given James' age (39) and Davis' injury history, there's always a chance one or both could miss time down the stretch. A .500 finish feels more likely than sustaining this recent surge.
Memphis Grizzlies (25-57)
15 of 30
The Grizzlies became a shut-down candidate the second they lost Ja Morant to season-ending shoulder surgery, and that possibility only increased when players like Desmond Bane and Marcus Smart joined Morant on the inactive list.
Memphis' injury report is nearing short-story length, and at a certain point—maybe now?—the Grizzlies might have to accept their fate and start planning for next season.
This group is spunky enough to pick up a few surprise wins (see their back-to-back triumphs over the Rockets and Bucks before the break), but the quantity and quality of players they're missing will get the better of them more often than not.
Miami Heat (44-38)
16 of 30
The Heat won 44 games last season and 44 (out of 73) in 2019-20. They reached the NBA Finals in both of those years.
Would 44 more victories mean Miami is going back to the championship round? Who knows, but we do know this group doesn't need a high playoff seed to make major postseason noise. The Heat should use that knowledge to steer them through the stretch run, focusing more on getting this roster healthy than loading up the wins column.
It's been an up-and-down season in South Beach, where the Heat had both a four-game losing streak and a seven-game winning streak by the 12-game mark. Things figure to stay stop-and-go for a while, perhaps until Miami completes its annual postseason metamorphosis into a nightmare matchup for anyone.
Milwaukee Bucks (52-30)
17 of 30
Speaking of strange seasons, what in the world is happening in Milwaukee? The Bucks ditched former coach Adrian Griffin after a 30-13 start, which is defensible if there were philosophical differences that were never going to allow this team to reach its apex under his direction.
But, uh, it certainly doesn't look great when his successor, Doc Rivers, opens with a 3-7 start, most recently falling to a Grizzlies team led by—checks notes—Ziaire Williams, GG Jackson and Vince Williams Jr.
"We have to want it, man," Giannis Antetokounmpo said after that loss. "Like, enough with the talking. Enough with the, 'our (expletive) don't stink' mentality. Do we really want it? Are we putting in the work, are we gonna put in the effort, are we going to fight for what we think that we deserve or what the goals we're trying to accomplish? That is the most important thing."
It's tough right now and maybe it stays tough the entire year. You'd think, though, this team's talent would eventually take over. The Bucks have plenty more to squeeze from the Antetokounmpo-Damian Lillard tandem, and the defense has looked a lot better (especially in transition) under Rivers. They clearly aren't on the verge of domination, but a 17-10 finish feels about right.
Minnesota Timberwolves (57-25)
18 of 30
If the Timberwolves got to 57 wins, it would be their second-highest total in franchise history. It would also be a touch slower than their current win rate, as they've posted a .707 winning percentage so far but would be playing .679 basketball the rest of the way.
Still, their 17th-ranked offense can lead to some head-scratching losses, as it has a tendency to malfunction at the worst possible time. Narrow the lens to fourth-quarter offensive efficiency, and Minnesota slides all the way to 26th.
So, yes, there probably will be at least a few more games that the Wolves inexplicably let slip away. But with their dominant defense and a bench offense in better hands after the deadline arrival of Monte Morris, Minnesota will take the fight for the No. 1 seed right down to the finish line.
New Orleans Pelicans (49-33)
19 of 30
For years, we've all wondered what could happen if this Pelicans team ever stayed healthy. Knock on wood, we've more or less received that answer this season.
Hopefully, nothing major happens down the stretch—Dyson Daniels' meniscus tear was, objectively speaking, a freakin' bummer—as New Orleans has a real chance to snag a top-six seed and maybe make something happen in the playoffs.
Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram and CJ McCollum have been a bit of a clunky fit on offense (113.2 offensive rating over 558 minutes, would be tied for 23rd), but they still comprise one of the more productive trios in the entire league. They are one of only two teammate trios with all three players averaging at least 19 points and four assists.
New York Knicks (50-32)
20 of 30
It's tough to project a path forward for the Knicks without knowing when—if ever—their injury issues will go away. If they did, it wouldn't be shocking to see them climb as high as the No. 2 seed given their collective talent and how much time they have remaining.
Again, though, that's asking a lot for a team with injury reports on almost everyone. The last time this team suited up, it was missing—clears throat—OG Anunoby, Julius Randle, Mitchell Robinson, Donte DiVincenzo, Isaiah Hartenstein and Bojan Bogdanović.
Things could dicey if the Knicks keeping having so many recognizable faces in street clothes, but they'll get healthier as they go, and they'll rack up plenty of wins in the process. Remember, they've gone 12-2 in games Anunoby has played, and they've won his 500 minutes by a staggering 252 points.
Oklahoma City Thunder (57-25)
21 of 30
The Thunder are one of two teams, along with the Celtics, to have top-five efficiency ranks on both offense (fourth) and defense (also fourth). Those are the markings of true inner-circle contenders, a label Oklahoma City obviously deserves regardless of its age and collective playoff inexperience.
Speaking of, this locker room stands to benefit a ton from the deadline acquisition of Gordon Hayward. Beyond all of the tricks of the trade that a 14-year veteran can share, he also remains a highly capable complementary player who brings shooting, playmaking and scoring to a frontcourt that could use all three.
Moreover, the front office's willingness to add a player of Hayward's ilk is a clear communication of its belief in this young group's readiness to win. The Thunder showed plenty of promise last season and were clearly trending up, but the franchise opened training camp stressing the importance of patience. Adding Hayward, a 33-year-old on an expiring contract, is not a patient strategy, but rather a win-now move that this roster earned.
Orlando Magic (46-36)
22 of 30
Orlando's offensive inconsistency cuts into the club's margin for error, but its fifth-ranked defense helps raise the floor. The Magic don't have enough firepower to climb toward greatness, but with their ability to get stops and generate takeaways (second in opponents' turnovers), they should always land between rock-solid and pretty good.
And it's not like they're hopeless on offense. Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner are two of the best focal-points-in-training this league has. Each can create something out of nothing—for themselves or their teammates.
There is a cap on how good this team can be as currently constructed, but Orlando has enough to secure the No. 7 seed.
Philadelphia 76ers (47-35)
23 of 30
The unfortunate loss of reigning MVP Joel Embiid to a meniscus injury hangs a cloud of uncertainty over the 76ers. They've lost 14 of the 20 games he's missed to this point and been 9.6 points worse per 100 possessions without him on the floor.
All of that said, they've managed a positive net rating in the non-Embiid minutes (plus-0.5), and they have several players who help pick up the slack. Tyrese Maxey is more than fine as a stand-in go-to scorer, Tobias Harris has a deep enough bag to serve as the second scorer and players like Buddy Hield and Kelly Oubre Jr. can fill it up on any night.
Philly has enough to avoid bottoming out without the big fella, and the hope of getting Embiid back should help fuel the Sixers through the stretch run. If they can hover around .500 in the games he misses, they could make a push for 50 wins, though we have them falling a little shy of that total.
Phoenix Suns (49-33)
24 of 30
It's tempting to predict that everything finally clicks for the Suns, if only because the high end outcomes for the Kevin Durant-Devin Booker-Bradley Beal trio are truly jaw-dropping. But they've played .600 ball for nearly four months, so predicting a .596 win rate for the final two months feels justified.
Phoenix's stars have shined bright with one another (plus-12.7 net rating), but the injury worries so many had for trio have too often come to fruition. The Suns have played 55 games so far and only had three stars together in 22 of them.
Could they finally catch a break from the injury bug and embark on a win-stacking tear? Sure. Could they lose multiple stars to injuries and have their depth issues exploited? Absolutely. We're guessing we'll see something in between those extremes—something pretty similar to what this team has shown to this point.
Portland Trail Blazers (23-59)
25 of 30
The Blazers went into the All-Star break amid their third losing streak of at least six games this season. Are we being too generous predicting eight more wins for this young team?
Maybe. Then again, Portland has more established talent than you see in most rebuilders, in large part because it's so new to the rebuilding process. There is near-All-Star volume in the stat sheets of Anfernee Simons and Jerami Grant. Deandre Ayton is a former No. 1 pick who's a walking double-double and capable of going 20-10 any night. A healthy Malcolm Brogdon is a rock-solid source of offensive efficiency.
Then, throw in ascending wild cards like Scoot Henderson and Shaedon Sharpe (who hopefully isn't done after a recent core muscle surgery), and Portland should find its way to at least a handful more victories. It is not at all in jeopardy of losing the lottery-protected pick it owes Chicago, and it may not see any prospects in this class worth outright tanking to try and get.
Sacramento Kings (46-36)
26 of 30
Based solely on Sacramento's 31-23 record (.574 winning percentage), a projected 15-13 finish (.536) might feel like a slight. Considering the Kings basically have a break-even net rating (plus-0.5, 17th), though, they might be fortunate to have as many wins as they do.
It seemed for a moment like they could be one of trade's season most aggressive buyers, but their only deadline involvement was being on the receiving end of a Robin Lopez salary-dump. Optimistic fans might read that as belief in this roster, but it could just as easily feel deflating for those who thought a difference-maker was en route.
The Kings have strengthened their defense from last season, but that improvement has almost been mirrored by an offense decline, leaving this club less than special at either end (14th on offense, 18th on defense). Teams might strive for two-way balance, but when it comes in a form like this, it really just looks like mediocrity.
San Antonio Spurs (18-64)
27 of 30
Victor Wembanyama is ascending toward stardom, and the Spurs are finally uncluttering his launch pad.
Between deploying him as their lone big and actually letting him see the floor with Tre Jones, the only natural point guard on the roster, San Antonio is allowing its 20-year-old centerpiece to spread his pterodactyl wings and give us all a glimpse of the future of basketball.
To no one's surprise, the Spurs have been at their best when they've positioned Wemby for success. He and Jones have a positive net rating across 739 minutes—no small feat considering they play for a team with a bottom-five net rating—and the three most common lineups with Wembanyama at the 5 all have net ratings of at least plus-2.5 points per 100 possessions, per Cleaning the Glass.
Toronto Raptors (30-52)
28 of 30
Toronto didn't quite engineer a top-to-bottom teardown, but the Raptors came as close as anyone to launching into a full rebuild. Flipping both Pascal Siakam and OG Anunoby for long-term assets was the right move for this non-contender to make.
Now, the team stopped short of abandoning ship for this season. In fact, it parted with a first-round pick to pry Kelly Olynyk and Ochai Agbaji away from the Utah Jazz. The Raptors seemingly have little appetite for life at the bottom of the NBA standings, which is probably fine since they may already have too many wins to tank.
They aren't getting back in the play-in tournament race, though, so it looks like they're headed toward the middle of the lottery.
Utah Jazz (37-45)
29 of 30
For the second sucessive season, Utah's decision-makers valued draft picks over play-in tournament contention. On a macro level, it was the right move to make each time.
That doesn't mean the players have to enjoy it. In fact, it sounds like frustration is boiling over in Salt Lake City, where the Jazz just subtracted three rotation players and didn't add any more to the fold.
Utah, which entered the deadline having dropped seven of its last nine games, could have trouble snapping out of this skid. The front office is playing for the future, which almost certainly will lead to a bumpy finish in the present.
Washington Wizards (14-68)
30 of 30
The 2024 NBA draft class doesn't appear very strong (particularly at the top), so we may not see much—if any—outright tank jobs down the stretch. Given how new the Wizards are to the rebuilding game, though, they might be the biggest candidate to completely bottom out.
Bilal Coulibaly is clearly their best prospect, which isn't saying much when he's a 19-year-old averaging single-digit points and almost as many turnovers as assists. Deni Avdija looks like a keeper, too, especially amid the heat wave he rode into the All-Star break (24.3 points on 60.2 percent shooting, 9.5 rebounds over his final six outings).
As far as long-term building blocks, though, that might be the extent of Washington's collection. The Wizards need to explore any path they can find to upside-rich prospects, and this projection (a 5-23 finish) would give them the league's worst record and a chance to claim a top prize at the draft lottery.
Statistics courtesy of Basketball Reference and NBA.com and current through the All-Star break.
Zach Buckley covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on X, @ZachBuckleyNBA.
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