Raiders' Keys to Improving Offense Under Antonio Pierce in 2024
The Las Vegas Raiders ended the 2023 season with mostly positive vibes under Antonio Pierce. The former linebacker coach was promoted to interim head coach when the team fired Josh McDaniels in the middle of the season and earned the full-time gig.
When Pierce took over the Raiders were 3-5 and not playing inspired football. With him at the helm they finished the season 5-4.
They did it on the strength of a surging defense that was much better by the end of the season than it was at the beginning.
On offense, the growth was much more incremental. The Raiders finished eighth in defensive DVOA while the offense lagged far behind at No. 27.
If the Raiders can continue the trend on defense, they have a shot at being dangerous. If they can even get the offense to rise to the middle of the pack, they could have a great first complete season under Pierce.
Here are three things that will be key for seeing that kind of growth.
Find a Quarterback
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An NFL offense can only go as far as the quarterback can take it. There are other factors, of course, but the quarterback is ultimately the most powerful position in sports.
Right now, the Raiders don't have the answer. Aidan O'Connell did some nice things last season and certainly played well as a fourth-round rookie, but he more or less proved that he could be a capable backup.
He went 5-5 as the starter, ranked 25th in total QBR and 28th in EPA. In other words, he didn't play so poorly that the Raiders couldn't win with him at quarterback, but they weren't winning games because of him.
It would appear Jimmy Garoppolo will be out of the picture. They turned to O'Connell when Antonio Pierce took over as the head coach and Garoppolo threw seven touchdowns to nine interceptions while missing two games with injury.
Pierce reportedly wants to "get aggressive" in landing a new quarterback which is good news because it shows they understand that they have to upgrade the position before they can take the next step as an offense.
There will certainly be challenges to doing that, though. With the 13th pick, the Raiders are not in a good position to draft one of the top prospects. Drake Maye and Caleb Williams are probably off the board unless the team is willing to give up a massive haul of picks and assets to move up to the top two picks.
In the latest B/R mock draft, Jayden Daniels goes to the Patriots with the third overall pick, which could make it difficult to even land him.
The free agency class is sparse too. If the Broncos release Russell Wilson he could be an option but as it stands, there's Kirk Cousins coming off an Achilles tear and Baker Mayfield who could want to stay in Tampa.
The Raiders can't make a desperation move, but they also can't go into 2024 with O'Connell as the starter.
Revamp the Offensive Line
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The reality might be that the Raiders have to go one season with a bridge quarterback. A player like Gardner Minshew or Jameis Winston might be the only realistic option to compete with O'Connell for the starting job.
If that's the case, the Raiders have to focus on creating the best context possible for a quarterback to thrive.
They already have more than enough offensive weapons. Even if Josh Jacobs walks in free agency they have one of the game's best receivers in Davante Adams, a good No. 2 option in Jakobi Meyers and an emerging young tight end in Michael Mayer.
However, none of that will matter without an offensive line that can play at a high level. The Raiders blockers were an underrated unit last season. They had the lowest pressure percentage allowed (15 percent), but they did have shortcomings as a run-blocking unit. They were tied for 29th in rushing yards before contact (2.1).
The unit is bound to look different next season. Center Andre James, right guard Greg Van Roten and right tackle Jermaine Eluemunor were all starters last season but are set to become free agents.
Van Roten will turn 34 in just a few days so depending on him to start again could be risky.
Knowing that the Raiders aren't likely to have the quarterback position completely figured out next season, they must get their offensive line decisions right.
Diversify the Run Game
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In 2022, the Raiders were 12th in scoring offense and total yards. In 2023, they finished 23rd in scoring and 27th in yardage.
Going away from Derek Carr at quarterback hurt, but the Raiders run game was also much better the previous year too. Josh Jacobs led the league in rushing and the Raiders averaged 4.8 yards per carry.
This season, that number plummeted to 3.7 and Jacobs had just 805 yards on the ground in 13 games.
There are a lot of factors that went into the decrease in production, but it certainly didn't help that the Raiders run game wasn't all that creative. The Raiders were ninth in zone run rate and shied away from gap run schemes despite ranking 28th in EPA per play when running zone and fourth in EPA per play when running gap schemes, per 33rd Team.
More diversity within the Raiders running game would allow them to have a better shot at running the football more consistently. It would also help bring along whatever quarterback is starting in 2024 by forcing defenses to account for a potent rushing attack.
It's also worth noting that the Raiders were 23rd in play-action percentage despite ranking 13th in EPA per play. Asking a quarterback like O'Connell to take straight dropbacks all the time is not a successful strategy.
The good news is that Luke Getsy will be taking over as offensive coordinator so the offense should look different schematically. The Bears were a good running team last season and ran play-action at the ninth-highest rate in the league.
That should help the Raiders build a more servicable offense that can help their defense and win more games in 2024.
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