Dear Stanford: Blame David Shaw, Not Kicker, for Fiesta Bowl Loss

Dear Stanford Fans,

The Fiesta Bowl loss was a heartbreaker. The fourth-ranked underdog Stanford Cardinal led the third-ranked Oklahoma State Cowboys the entire game until they lost by three points in overtime, 41-38, on not one, but two missed field goals.

There were few things more depressing than seeing Stanford's star quarterback Andrew Luck, looking on, stunned, as kicker Jordan Williamson kicked his 35-yard attempt left of the posts in regulation. Luck leaving the field in defeat on his last night as a college football player after Williamson failed a 40-yard attempt in overtime also ranks in the top ten in depressing college football moments.

Sadly, I have no consolation. This game hurt and will continue to hurt for awhile. But I can offer you this warning: blame the coach, not the kicker. 

The facts: Stanford had a first down on the Cowboys' 25.  They had 52 seconds and three timeouts remaining in regulation. They had out-gained the high-flying Cowboys the entire game in yardage (no surprise) but had also never trailed in points (surprise).

Here's a breakdown of what Stanford Coach David Shaw had to be thinking: "Don't turn over the ball. We want to kick on third down so if we botch the snap we can re-do it on the fourth. Don't turn over the ball." 

Most pundits and football-savvy fans say Shaw did the right thing, what any smart coach would do in that situation: play conservative, gain a few yards for an easier field goal, and trust your second-team Pac-12 kicker.

They forget a few things, however, things that definitely indicate Shaw called this one completely wrong.

First and most glaring, he took the ball out of Luck's hands. Does that seem wrong to anyone else? The top draft pick for the NFL, the smartest quarterback to play at the college level, who had led Stanford to an Orange Bowl victory the year before, Andrew Luck, did not touch the ball in the final plays of regulation.

Second, as Jon Wilner of the San Jose Mercury News said, "In my opinion, there was a better chance of Williamson missing from 35 yards than Luck throwing an interception in the red zone."

The Luck-led Cardinal possessed a better red zone completion record than any other team in college football at 98%. Oklahoma State had proven five times over how it was unable to stop Luck in the red zone. With the win, rather than the tie, on the line, Luck seems like the obvious choice to ride.

Third, Williamson suffered an injury during the regular season that affected his kicking for the rest of the year, to the point where Stanford was in the bottom third of field goal attempts in the Pac-12. He is a freshman, and therefore his experience at handling pressure in big games should be questioned by the coach.

Finally, Shaw iced Williamson with a time out. As several bloggers pointed out, the kid was obviously nervous before the kick, and the time out surely did him no favors.

In overtime, putting the task on coming up with a tie now, not even a win, was foolish. But Stanford and Williamson should never have been in that situation to begin with. All of this adds up to pretty poor coaching.

Shaw should have been more aggressive and trusted his proven quarterback rather than diddle away time and opportunity before putting the game on a freshman's shoulders.

Shaw knew this, too, saying after the game: "Offensively, we talk about it all the time. We can't settle for field goals against a good football team." Why he didn't follow through with his own advice is boggling.

A lot of you already recognize this, but it might be hard to forgive Williamson for such a loss, so I reiterate: blame the coach, not the kicker. 

I considered addressing my piece to Andrew Luck as well as the Stanford nation at large, but then I realized Luck blames nobody for the loss. Or rather, he knows that the team, and he himself, are as much responsible for their failure as Williamson.

"At the end of the day, we lost," Luck said. "I'm as much to blame as the next guy."

I hope he thrives in the NFL. And I hope I'm wrong when I say that Shaw is not the coach Stanford should rely on to lead them back to the BCS. I hope my warning of blaming Shaw will not be a recurring theme for Stanford over the next few years. We'll see.