Ranking Guardians' Shane Bieber Top 10 Landing Spots Amid MLB Trade Rumors
Cleveland Guardians starting pitcher Shane Bieber is on the trading block, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic.
It has been a widely held belief that the right-hander would be dealt before hitting free agency when looking at Cleveland's track record of rarely signing star players to long-term deals.
Bieber, 28, should be appealing to any team looking to add a starting pitcher at a reasonable cost. He is projected to make $12.2 million in his final year of arbitration this season before hitting the open market next offseason.
For the Guardians, he would start 2024 arguably as their No. 1 starter, with Triston McKenzie and a host of other young pitchers in the mix. But Bieber is a much more sensible fit on an actual contender or a team looking more to upgrade the middle to back end of its rotation.
So where are the best fits?
Based on team need, we've ranked the top 10 landing spots for the two-time All-Star and 2020 AL Cy Young Award winner. It's been three seasons since Bieber last showed any form of dominance, and 2023 was the worst since his rookie year in 2018.
He missed more than two months with right elbow inflammation, and it's possible his stats dipped so dramatically in part because of the injury.
A healthy Bieber could help a team. But the questions are how healthy is he, and how close can he get back to what he was in 2020? Let's take a look at the landscape.
Bieber's Trade Value and Latest Rumors
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Bieber is a young, accomplished player who is valued greatly by the Guardians (even if they are not interested in signing him long-term). But he appears to be damaged goods based on how he's pitched recently.
Rosenthal told his Fair Territory show (24:50):
"I don't know that it's going to happen. And the reason is that Bieber has lost velocity since 2020, really almost every year. He's not quite the same guy. He's coming off of an injury.
"As one executive put it to me, 'I'm not sure anyone is really going to be interested in Shane Bieber at the price that the Guardians would likely would request.'"
This could be true, but it hasn't stopped teams that think they can fix him from calling.
Nos. 10-6: Astros, Padres, Reds, Blue Jays and Rangers
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10. Houston Astros
No one seems to expect the Astros to do much this offseason, but this is the type of impact move along the margins that could make sense for them.
Two of Houston's starters, Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers Jr., are injured. Their ace, Justin Verlander, turns 41 in February. Seeking pitching depth for a team that has its lineup mostly locked in makes a lot of sense, especially an Astros team in win-now mode.
9. San Diego Padres
The Padres are in need of a starter.
Trading for Bieber probably feels hollow in an offseason that saw them punt on the failed Juan Soto experiment, while the division rival Los Angeles Dodgers ran up over a billion dollars in free agency, nabbing the top prize Shohei Ohtani.
Still, the Padres don't have much in their rotation behind Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish. Bieber would ideally slot right behind them and add some starting credibility and a guy who is more than capable of eating innings.
8. Cincinnati Reds
It seemed far more likely the Reds would pursue Bieber before they signed Frankie Montas and Nick Martinez.
They had been linked to Bieber since November, when MLB Network's Jon Morosi reported Cincinnati was among the teams active in trade conversations. The Reds could still be interested in Bieber as a depth piece.
Left-handed pitcher Andrew Abbott showed some promise early as a rookie last season, but fatigue eventually set in and he faded toward the end of the season.
Abbott, along with Nick Lodolo and Brandon Williamson, are three strong, young talents, but how many innings can they realistically give you in 2024?
Bieber offers the Reds more assurance in the back end of their rotation.
7. Toronto Blue Jays
Count the Blue Jays among the contenders that have been quiet this offseason. Trading for Bieber would not exactly be a splash for them, especially considering they once had faint hopes at landing Ohtani.
But we saw how things unraveled with Alek Manoah last season, and the Blue Jays could use some insurance with Manoah and the up-and-down Yusei Kikuchi expected to be in the rotation.
The Blue Jays made sense as a trade partner at the summer deadline and not much has changed since then. Concerns about his dip in velocity can also be more thoughtfully investigated in the offseason.
The Blue Jays also fit the bill as a team squarely in win-now mode.
6. Texas Rangers
No team knows the value of starting pitching depth quite like the Rangers, which made up for a shaky bullpen with a gluttony of starters to help fill in down the stretch of a World Series run.
Texas is in the market for starting pitching, though a Jordan Montgomery reunion seems to make the most sense. That would not prohibit it trading for Bieber, though.
According to Rosenthal, the Rangers are targeting Chicago White Sox pitcher Dylan Cease in the trade market. But so are the New York Yankees, San Francisco Giants and Atlanta.
The race for Bieber is much slower and less competitive, making him a viable fallback option, especially if Montgomery doesn't return.
5. San Francisco Giants
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The Giants are a little more desperate to find a starter to pair with Logan Webb atop their rotation.
For San Francisco, bringing in Bieber would not just be about adding depth. It would also be about adding quality to a group that could certainly use him.
After Webb, the Giants' projected starters are Ross Stripling and three pitchers with less than a year of MLB service time: Kyle Harrison, Keaton Winn and Tristan Beck. Newly acquired Robbie Ray isn't expected back until midseason.
Bieber's contract situation and recent underperformance could benefit the Giants if the Guardians are reasonable about what they can get back for him.
While there are still plenty of big names on the board, San Francisco is, as of now, looking at another offseason of not fulfilling its needs aside from the six-year deal with OF Jung Hoo Lee.
It only has to commit for one season, maybe half a season if the trade deadline dictates it. The Giants can use the time to see if they can rehabilitate Bieber into the 2020 version.
It would be a cheaper investment than trading for Cease, or Corbin Burnes, even if they are the Giants' preference due to their higher ceilings.
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4. Boston Red Sox
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Starting pitching is a top priority for the Red Sox.
Signing Lucas Giolito gave them what they needed at the top of the rotation, but it still needs work and taking a risk on Bieber makes sense.
Kutter Crawford was a revelation for Boston last season, posting a 25.6 percent strikeout rate and 6.8 percent walk rate, both significant improvements from his first two seasons in the big leagues.
However, the fact that an unheralded pitcher like Crawford has a shot to make the rotation speaks just as much to what the Red Sox are lacking from that group.
B/R's Zachary Rymer pointed this out in October as a realistic trade possibility. The Red Sox started 17 pitchers last year, and Brayan Bello was, arguably, their most reliable.
3. Chicago Cubs
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The Chicago Cubs are among the known teams to have discussed a trade for Bieber with the Guardians, as Jon Morosi of MLB Network reported in November.
There is also an expectation the Cubs go all-in after a promising 2023 season. They have reportedly agreed to a four-year contract with Japanese left-hander Shōta Imanaga, who posted a 2.80 ERA and 174 strikeouts in 148 innings last season for the Yokohama DeNA BayStars in the Nippon Professional Baseball Organization.
Will that be enough?
Bob Nightengale of USA Today predicts the Cubs "will be baseball's most aggressive team these next five weeks." He said their offseason is just starting, which would make a Bieber trade realistic.
The top of their rotation has Justin Steele, Jameson Taillon and Imanaga, with the 34-year-old veteran Kyle Hendricks likely in the No. 4 slot. Jordan Wicks, a first-round pick in 2021, should get starts for the Cubs this season, but Bieber is still a more reliable arm as a fourth or fifth starter, especially in this low-risk rental scenario.
2. Los Angeles Dodgers
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Upgrading their starting pitching is of the utmost importance this offseason for the Dodgers, which have easily been the most aggressive team both in free agency and the trade market.
They have Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Tyler Glasnow to help fortify the top of the rotation, but there is still a place for Bieber.
The Dodgers have "checked in" with the Guardians on Bieber, according to Juan Toribio of MLB.com. Both teams are dealing from a place of luxury, considering the Guardians are not yet desperate to move Bieber, and L.A. has acquired two pitchers presumably better than him this offseason.
Yet imagine Bieber as the fifth option behind Yamamoto, Glasnow, Walker Buehler and Bobby Miller. The Dodgers would not need Bieber to be any better than their fourth starter. And if they lose someone, he is a luxury depth piece for them.
This is the kind of rotation that puts the Dodgers over the top, already having, arguably, the best lineup in baseball.
1. New York Yankees
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It's not a matter of if, but when the Yankees will add to their rotation. Cease and Jesús Luzardo have to be at the top of their trade list, but not too far behind is Bieber, who they have discussed with the Guardians, according to Nightengale.
This would also be consistent with their prior offseason moves, such as trading for one year of Juan Soto. Stack the team with more accomplished players to start the year and see where you are when the trade deadline approaches.
While it would signal failure, the Yankees would be just fine dealing Bieber ahead of the deadline if the move did not materialize as they hoped. The sense is that New York is looking for another frontline starter, as Nightengale put it.
A reunion with Jordan Montgomery seems unlikely, while it's fair to wonder if the Yankees are truly interested in a multi-year deal with Marcus Stroman. Trading for Bieber is the most feasible way to take a swing without further gutting the farm after the Soto trade.
Bieber may be past his days as a Cy Young candidate, but it's worth finding out if he can recapture enough to provide New York with a capable No. 4 starter to pair with Gerrit Cole, Nestor Cortes and Carlos Rodón.
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