NFL Playoff Picture 2024: Dissecting AFC, NFC Scenarios Before Final Games
The Houston Texans and Pittsburgh Steelers simplified the AFC playoff scenarios with their respective wins on Saturday night.
Houston's victory put pressure on the Jacksonville Jaguars to close out the AFC South title with a win over the Tennessee Titans on Sunday. The Texans enter Sunday with a clinched playoff berth and in first place in the AFC South.
Pittsburgh's win left no wiggle room for the Buffalo Bills in the wild-card race if they fall to the Miami Dolphins on Sunday night.
The Steelers will be the beneficiary of a Buffalo or Jacksonville loss, but if the Bills and Jags win, the AFC North side does not have a path to the postseason.
The NFC wild-card scenarios run through the Green Bay Packers, who need a win over the Chicago Bears to confirm the third wild-card spot.
The NFC East and South titles are still up for grabs, but there may not be drama in those races since the Dallas Cowboys and Tampa Bay Buccaneers are widely expected to win in Week 18.
AFC Playoff Picture
1 of 2
Division Leaders
1. Baltimore (13-4)
2. Miami (11-5)
3. Kansas City (10-6)
4. Houston (10-7)
Wild-Card Race
5. Cleveland (11-5)
6. Buffalo (10-6)
7. Pittsburgh (10-7)
8. Jacksonville (9-7)
Buffalo and Jacksonville are the two teams that matter most to the AFC playoff equation on Sunday.
The Bills and Jags need to win to confirm their spots in the playoff field and capture division titles.
A Buffalo win in Miami would place the Bills in the No. 2 seed, while the Jags would land the No. 4 seed with a victory over the Titans.
If the Bills and Jags win, the Miami Dolphins would drop to the No. 6 seed and the Texans would be the No. 7 seed.
Jacksonville plays in the early afternoon window in Nashville. A loss would eliminate the Jags from the postseason. That would put the Jags at 9-8 with a 1.5-game deficit to the Bills going into Sunday night.
Buffalo needs the Titans to win so that they will only play for the divisional title and seeding instead of its playoff life on Sunday night.
Miami will likely be without Raheem Mostert and Jaylen Waddle, who are both expected to be ready for the postseason, per NFL Network's Tom Pelissero.
A depleted Miami offense could be the boost the Buffalo defense needs to get stops and help Josh Allen pick up the road win.
The Nos. 1, 3 and 5 seeds will not change on Sunday. Baltimore, Kansas City and Cleveland are all locked into those spots. The Chiefs and Browns will play their backups on Sunday.
NFC Playoff Picture
2 of 2
Division Leaders
1. San Francisco (12-4)
2. Dallas (11-5)
3. Detroit (11-5)
4. Tampa Bay (8-8)
Wild-Card Race
5. Philadelphia (11-5)
6. Los Angeles Rams (9-7)
7. Green Bay (8-8)
8. Seattle (8-8)
9. New Orleans (8-8)
10. Minnesota (7-9)
12. Atlanta (7-9)
The NFC playoff picture could either be incredibly chaotic or produce the most boring Week 18 you will ever see.
The Dallas Cowboys, Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Green Bay Packers control how the NFC playoff seeds will be finalized.
Dallas needs a win over the Washington Commanders to confirm the NFC East crown and the No. 2 seed. A Dallas loss allows the Philadelphia Eagles to win the division with a victory over the New York Giants. If both teams lose, the Cowboys win the NFC East.
The Detroit Lions must beat the Minnesota Vikings in the early window to keep hope alive for the No. 2 seed, but their fate will be determined in the late afternoon set of games.
Detroit needs the Cowboys and Philadelphia to lose to leapfrog the NFC East champion to land the No. 2 seed.
Tampa Bay locks itself into the No. 4 seed with a road win over the Carolina Panthers.
A Tampa Bay loss benefits the Atlanta-New Orleans winner, who will capture the NFC South crown if the Bucs slip up.
New Orleans must win and receive losses from Green Bay and Seattle to qualify as a wild-card team. Atlanta's path to the postseason is through the NFC South title.
Atlanta is in an interesting spot with the 12th-best record in the NFC. The 11th-placed Chicago Bears are eliminated from the postseason because they do not have a path to the divisional title.
All of the remaining wild-card contenders will be rooting for the Bears to upset the Packers at Lambeau Field. If Green Bay wins, it will be the third clinched wild-card team. The Packers can gain the No. 6 seed if they win and the Los Angeles Rams lose to the San Francisco 49ers.
A Packers loss opens up the possibility for a team to jump Green Bay, starting with Seattle.
The Seahawks must beat the Arizona Cardinals and get a Green Bay loss to qualify for the postseason.
New Orleans needs losses from both Green Bay and Seattle to get into the postseason field, if it does not win the NFC South.
Minnesota must beat the Lions and then have the Packers, Seahawks and the Bucs or Saints lose to pull off a playoff miracle.
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