NFL Odds Week 18: Early Locks and Best Bets on the Schedule
We've reached the final week of the 2023-24 NFL season, which means it's the final chance for fans to absorb a full slate of football before next fall.
For those so inclined, Week 18 is also the last time to wager on a full 16-game schedule. The challenge, of course, is knowing which teams will play to win and which are simply going through the motions.
Teams that have already secured playoff positions are a threat to rest their starters, which means that winning isn't a top priority.
Below, we'll dive into the Week 18 schedule and examine some of our favorite team picks based on the early lines,
Check the latest lines at DraftKings.
Bengals -5 Versus Browns
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The Cincinnati Bengals have remained a tough out even after the loss of quarterback Joe Burrow. Backup quarterback Jake Browning has done an admirable job of keeping the offense rolling by taking advantage of playmakers Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins.
While Sunday's 25-17 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs eliminated Cincinnati from playoff contention, the Bengals have plenty of reasons to win in their season finale. Doing so would allow the team to secure a winning record and to go out on a high note at home.
Expect the Bengals to play all of their healthy starters against the Cleveland Browns.
The Browns, however, are likely to roll out their B Team against the Bengals—which could include recent addition Jeff Driskel at quarterback.
Cleveland locked up a playoff berth on Thursday, and it is tied to the AFC's No. 5 seed. There's absolutely nothing to gain from this game. A few starters may play early just to avoid rust, getting out healthy will be paramount for the Browns.
We'll likely see several unfamiliar faces on the field for Cleveland in the second half while the Bengals cruise to a convincing victory, giving their fans one last bit of excitement.
Buccaneers -5.5 at Panthers
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The Tampa Bay Buccaneers had a chance to clinch the NFC South on Sunday, but they played a flat game against the New Orleans Saints and lost 23-13. The Saints came out with much more intensity, while Bucs quarterback Baker Mayfield simply couldn't get into a rhythm with his receivers until late.
Mayfield finished 22-of-33 for 309 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions.
Expect Tampa to be far more focused against the Carolina Panthers this week because a win still gives them the division. And while the Panthers do have a quality pass defense, they've struggled against the run. Tampa should be able to attack Carolina with Rachaad White on the ground.
Carolina's offense remains one of the least threatening in the league. Rookie quarterback Bryce Young threw for just 112 yards with an interception against a bad Jacksonville Jaguars defense in Week 17, and he's unlikely to find success against an equally questionable Bucs defense.
As was the case on Sunday, the Panthers might hang around early. However, Tampa is the better team and should pull away in the second half to win by at least a touchdown to punch their playoff ticket.
Falcons +3.5 at Saints
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Like the Buccaneers, the Saints and Atlanta Falcons are still alive in the NFC South. Neither can win the division if Tampa wins, but a Bucs' loss opens the door.
Both teams will be motivated to win this one, and while the Falcons won the first meeting, we could see the Saints winning the rematch at home. Quarterback Derek Carr hasn't turned New Orleans into a Super Bowl threat, but he's provided steadier quarterback play than the Falcons have seen.
Atlanta started Taylor Heinicke against the Chicago Bears on Sunday and then pulled him for Desmond Ridder after Heinicke threw three interceptions and aggravated an ankle injury . Ridder also threw a pick, and the Falcons ended up losing by 20.
However, the Saints defense has been susceptible to the run, and the Falcons can pound it with Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier. Atlanta rushed for 228 yards against the Saints in Week 12, and they can repeat that performance in the rematch.
The Saints, meanwhile, may be without Alvin Kamara, who exited Week 17 with an ankle injury. Kamara has regularly served as Carr's security blanket, and if he can't go, it will draw the quarterback matchup closer to even. Expect Atlanta to keep it within a field goal.
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