NBA's Biggest Winners and Losers After 1 Month
We're now a month into the 2023-24 NBA campaign. The holidays are in full swing. Newly assemble teams are starting to click. And plenty of numbers are now based on big enough samples for meaningful takeaways.
So, it's time to go through some of those takeaways with the tried and true "winners and losers" exercise.
Of course, even if a month is enough for real analysis, it's worth remembering that it's also nowhere near the bulk of a season. These takes are still sort of first impressions, and things can change quickly and dramatically.
Just because a team or player's performance is branded a "loser" now, certainly doesn't mean that will apply through April.
But enough with the caveats. Let's dive in. Based on what we've seen so far, how far ahead or behind teams or players are from preseason expectations (for example, I won't ding the Detroit Pistons for being bad when they were supposed to be bad) and a healthy dose of subjectivity, here are the 2023-24 season's biggest winners and losers through one month.
Loser: Memphis Grizzlies
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The Memphis Grizzlies and their fans knew Ja Morant's 25-game suspension would be tough to survive. It was always going to overlap with Brandon Clarke's recovery from an Achilles tear. And last season, the team's point differential per 100 possessions (net rating) was 5.2 points better when Morant was on the floor.
What they (at least the fans) couldn't have anticipated was the seasonlong absence of starting center Steven Adams and early season injuries to Marcus Smart, Luke Kennard and Xavier Tillman Sr.
Desmond Bane has been good, and Jaren Jackson Jr. has had his moments, but Memphis' series of unfortunate events has it free-falling down the Western Conference standings.
And though they're within striking distance of the play-in tournament right now, the depth of talent in the West will make it difficult to climb out of this hole upon Morant's return.
Winner: Orlando Magic and Houston Rockets
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The Orlando Magic and Houston Rockets took slightly different paths to their breakouts, but they're both among this early season's best stories.
For Orlando, it was fairly easy to predict they'd exceed their preseason over-under of 36.5, but few could've seen the Magic having the second best defense in basketball.
With Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner and Jonathan Isaac, Orlando has an absurd amount of length and aggression on that end. Their ability to swarm is up there with anyone.
They're getting enough on offense from Banchero, Wagner and Cole Anthony to give them a top-10 point differential, too. They probably won't maintain their 56-win pace, but the Magic have shown enough to seem like a borderline playoff lock.
And Orlando got here almost entirely through internal development.
The Rockets, meanwhile, accelerated their rebuild by signing veterans Fred VanVleet and Dillon Brooks and hiring former Boston Celtics coach Ime Udoka. Their additions didn't really take anything away from the young core, either. On the contrary, having reliable, experienced help has Jalen Green and Jabari Smith Jr. looking better than ever and Alperen Şengün looking like an All-Star.
The Turkish big man leads his team in scoring while putting up Domantas Sabonis-like assist numbers.
Loser: Draymond Green (and Much of the Rest of Stephen Curry's Supporting Cast)
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The team seems to be stabilizing a bit over its past few games, and the Chris Paul addition has undoubtedly worked. The bench minutes are as good as they've been in years, thanks to Paul's leadership. Paul to Klay Thompson, Paul to Dario Šarić and Paul to Stephen Curry are three of the top 23 assist combos in the NBA right now.
But much of the rest of the supporting cast has been terrible.
Thompson only has two 20-point games, and his three-point percentage is barely above average (which is bad by his standards).
Andrew Wiggins' shot has been far worse, and he's not doing enough as a rebounder, creator or defender to make up for that.
Jonathan Kuminga's ancillary contributions have been bad too, though he at least has the excuse of barely being 21 years old.
The biggest reason for the sub-.500 start may be Draymond Green and, as the league put it, his "history of unsportsmanlike acts."
After he applied an over-the-top, in-game chokehold on Rudy Gobert, who he's spent years denigrating, Green was suspended for five games.
The Warriors lost the contest in which the sleeper hold happened and then lost three of four after that. Without Draymond's playmaking and defense in the starting five, the traditionally dominant unit has looked distinctly mediocre.
Winner: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (and Much of His Supporting Cast)
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Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is off to an absurd start, with per-game averages and advanced numbers that have him behind only Nikola Jokić in Basketball Reference's MVP Tracker.
Behind his play and a rapidly improving supporting cast, the Oklahoma City Thunder look like they could be in range of the West's top seed this season.
Jalen Williams is averaging just under 20 points. Luguentz Dort is putting up (by far) the best three-point percentage of his career. Isaiah Joe and Cason Wallace are shooting the cover off the ball, and the latter (a rookie) looks far more NBA-ready than anyone could've expected.
But the biggest difference between the 2022-23 Thunder and this version is Chet Holmgren. His rim protection on one end and jump shooting on the other has changed the geometry of the floor for OKC.
And despite being fewer than 20 games into his NBA career, he's working on a top-10 estimated plus-minus (one of the most trusted catch-all metrics in NBA front offices).
Loser: Chicago Bulls' 'Big Three'
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To most outside observers, the Chicago Bulls' need to break up this "big three" of Zach LaVine, DeMar DeRozan and Nikola Vučević was painfully clear.
When all three were on the floor, the team's point differential was under water in both 2022-23 and 2021-22. And this season, it's plummeted to a disaster-level minus-18.8 points per 100 possessions with the trio in action.
Even with the discouraging history, it was fair to at least expect these Bulls to be competitive. Perhaps some internal development from Coby White and Patrick Williams would help. Instead, this experiment is unraveling in spectacular(ly bad) fashion.
The three stars can't (or won't) defend anyone. And their "your turn to jack up a contested mid-range jumper, my turn to jack up a contested mid-range jumper" offense has been dreadful.
Things have gotten so bad that it's easy to wonder if this start may be affecting the trade value of all three of LaVine, DeRozan and Vučević.
Winner: Minnesota Timberwolves Front Office
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The Rudy Gobert trade was met with widespread skepticism when it happened. When the fit between he and Karl-Anthony Towns looked clunky in 2022-23, skepticism transitioned to mockery and, in some cases, derision.
In the year since, team president Tim Connelly traded for Mike Conley, whose veteran leadership and familiarity with Gobert (they were teammates with the Utah Jazz) helped integrate the big man. The T'Wolves looked as competitive as anyone against the Denver Nuggets in the playoffs. And Karl-Anthony Towns got healthy.
Now, Minnesota has been in first place in the West for much of the season. It's already beaten the Nuggets and Boston Celtics. It has one of the league's stingiest defenses. And the trio of Anthony Edwards, Towns and Gobert not only fits, but it's looked dominant in stretches.
The Timberwolves are playing like a bona fide title contender, and a deep playoff run might vindicate the Gobert trade.
Loser: Jordan Poole (and a Handful of Other Young Playmakers)
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Jordan Poole may get the dishonor of being named in this subheading, but he's far from the only young playmaker struggling to find a rhythm early in the season.
Right now, the league-average effective field-goal percentage is 54.0. And Poole is currently attempting 16.2 shots a game with a 46.1 effective field-goal percentage.
That has understandably led to him having one of the league's absolute worst net rating swings.
The Washington Wizards are minus-21.7 points per 100 possessions with Poole on the floor and plus-11.8 when he's off.
He's making $27.5 million this season.
But again, he's not alone on this slide.
Scoot Henderson and Cade Cunningham are right there with Poole in the bottom five for 2023-24 wins over replacement player. Both have reasonable excuses. Henderson is a rookie, and Cunningham's supporting cast isn't doing him a ton of favors.
But the scoring inefficiency and high turnover rates of both are at least mildly alarming. And it would certainly be preferable if they hadn't started so poorly.
Winner: Tyrese Haliburton (and a Handful of Other Young Playmakers)
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SGA, Tyrese Haliburton, Luka Dončić, Scottie Barnes, Tyrese Maxey, Şengün and LaMelo Ball are on the other end of that spectrum. And they're all under 26 years old.
Their respective per-game numbers would look like those of an MVP candidate (or borderline MVP candidate) if dropped into a season from most prior eras.
And having them spread out throughout the league is creating all kinds of #LeaguePassAlerts and demonstrating that the NBA will be in great hands after the current faces of the league retire.
All of the above are leading their teams to an exciting brand of basketball packed with shooting and ball movement. Some are doing it from positions that weren't traditionally marked for playmaking.
They're giving us plenty to watch right now and figure to do so for years to come.
Loser: Denver Nuggets' Championship Mojo
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After a 16-4 championship run in which they were never seriously challenged, the Denver Nuggets are undefeated at home, and Nikola Jokić is as dominant as ever.
But the team is 3-6 on the road and has lost five of its past seven overall. Jamal Murray is out for an indefinite amount of time with a hamstring injury, and the rest of the supporting cast is nowhere near pulling its weight.
Jokić has a league-leading (by a wide margin) 6.6 wins over replacement player (value over replacement player times 2.7), while the rest of the roster has combined for just 1.1.
When the big man is off the floor, the offense has been nightmarishly bad, and it certainly doesn't feel like anyone is intimated by the reigning champs right now.
There's plenty of time to turn things around. Murray returning would obviously help. But the rest of the supporting cast, especially Michael Porter Jr. and Aaron Gordon, will have to be better if Denver is going to have a serious shot at repeating.
Winner: Post-James Harden Philadelphia 76ers
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Tyrese Maxey got a bit of a shoutout earlier, but his ascension without James Harden in the rotation deserves a little more love.
He's been a fixture in the top 10 of the aforementioned MVP Tracker, has the Philadelphia 76ers playing a more exciting and uptempo brand of basketball and is suddenly one half of one of the game's most dynamic duos.
With Maxey and Joel Embiid, Philadelphia has an inside-out combo that looks borderline unstoppable on offense. And the amount of size, shooting and switchability on the roster (in part because of the Harden trade) has to have the front office considering the "two stars and depth" model going forward.
Surrounding this two-man game with floor spacing, defense and role players who know they're role players will allow it to flourish with far less drama than previous iterations of the 76ers.
Loser: Milwaukee Bucks' Defense (though It May Not Matter)
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It's already shown signs of improvement, especially since new coach Adrian Griffin returned to the drop pick-and-roll coverage that Brook Lopez has thrived with, but the Milwaukee Bucks still have a bottom-10 defense.
That's a far cry from the unit that ranked first over the course of the five seasons prior to this one, but it honestly might not matter.
The defensive downgrade from Jrue Holiday to Damian Lillard is pretty obvious, but so is the upgrade on the other end.
Milwaukee's top-five on offense, has one of the most dynamic clutch scorers of all time and is already flirting with the No. 1 seed in the East (despite the bad defense).
In the past, the Bucks' attack had become stagnant in the highest leverage moments. Giannis Antetokounmpo is one of the more unstoppable forces the NBA has ever seen, but his bad shooting and sometimes one-track scoring ability made the team predictable in huge moments.
That's not going to be true in 2023-24. And even if the Bucks can manage to have a defense around league average, they'll be a title contender.
Winner: Boston Celtics
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Few, if any, 2023 summers look as good a month into the season as that of the Boston Celtics.
When their two highest-profile additions, Kristaps Porziņģis and Jrue Holiday, are both on the floor, Boston is plus-13.1 points per 100 possessions. When you add their two best holdovers from last season, Jayson Tatum and Derrick White, that number skyrockets to plus-28.2.
With Holiday and White, Boston has the almost undisputed best defensive backcourt in the NBA. Backing them up with the switchability of Tatum and Jaylen Brown, and the rim protection of Porziņģis, gives the Celtics a nightmarish resistance.
Porziņģis' ability to command defensive attention 28-30 feet from the rim has opposing bigs scrambling on the perimeter and teammates exploiting wider driving lanes inside.
We've seen this story before. Boston has dominated regular-season metrics on more than one recent occasion. Things could change deep in the playoffs.
But the balance and high-end talent on this roster has it looking like the best team in the league right now.
Loser: Victor Wembanyama's Rookie of the Year Case (for Now)
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Victor Wembanyama currently has a 70th percentile estimated plus-minus and an effective field-goal percentage over five points shy of the league average.
Meanwhile, Chet Holmgren is in the 97th percentile, with an effective field-goal percentage over five points clear of the league average and a block percentage within striking distance of Wembanyama's.
If Rookie of the Year was decided right now, Holmgren would have a very real case over perhaps the most hyped prospect in NBA history.
Of course, there's some important context here.
Holmgren's role on the Thunder is undersold in this discussion, but he's certainly closer to a cog in the machine than Wembanyama is for the San Antonio Spurs. Having multiple NBA (and in some cases, All-NBA) level playmakers to set him up certainly helps too.
As for Wemby, he's spent well over half his minutes playing within the "Jeremy Sochan can be a point guard" experiment, and it's absolutely hurting his numbers.
When Wembanyama is on the floor with Sochan, he's averaging 20.2 points per 75 possessions with a 47.8 true shooting percentage (league average is 57.5). When he's on the floor with Tre Jones (an actual point guard, and not really a spectacular one), Wemby is averaging 25.3 points with a 60.5 true shooting percentage.
As nice as it would be for 6'9" Sochan to develop into a bona fide lead playmaker, it's getting dangerously close to time to wave the white flag. This is potentially slowing Wembanyama's development, and the Spurs could still experiment when he's on the bench.
Winner: LeBron James (and Other Aging Faces of the NBA)
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This has been (and will continue to be) one of the most-talked-about storylines of the 2023-24 season. And it's easy to see why.
What LeBron James is doing right now is genuinely unprecedented.
Prior to this season, the six players in NBA history who'd appeared in a 21st season combined for 1.1 wins over replacement player. One month into his Year 21, LeBron has 3.8.
What he's doing right now should be impossible, but soon-to-be-39-year-old LeBron is on the fringes of the MVP conversation and once again has his team in the hunt for a playoff spot.
And somehow, he's not the only post-prime superstar who's still hanging around the league's top 5-10 players.
Kevin Durant is 35 years old, averaging over 30 points and shooting a league-leading 52.2 percent from three.
Stephen Curry is just under 30 points per game, shooting 44.4 percent from three and posting his highest offensive box plus/minus since 2015-16.
There's an exciting wave of up-and-coming talent ready to take the league's reigns, but they may have to wrestle them away from these three.
Winner (he Got What He Wanted) and Loser (but at What Cost): James Harden
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James Harden forcing his way off the Houston Rockets and Brooklyn Nets and still getting the destination he wanted in 2023 is pretty remarkable.
On top of being one of the most statistically prolific players in NBA history, he may be the league's premier trade requester.
But being almost constantly disgruntled, still having few, if any, signature playoff moments (at least of the positive variety) and not being able to coexist longterm with a number of different stars certainly hasn't helped his legacy.
And within this specific season, he lost each of his first five games as a Los Angeles Clipper. He's averaging a pedestrian (by his standards) 15.1 points and 6.3 assists. It doesn't look like the "I am a system" version will be able to show up for a team that already has Kawhi Leonard and Paul George.
That naturally leads one to wonder, how long till he asks out of L.A. too?
Winner: the NBA
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Narrowing down the list of "winners" for this slideshow was tough. There are tons of candidates (both teams and players). And that makes the league itself feel like a pretty natural selection to close this out.
But a more specific reason to call the NBA a "winner" right now is the in-season tournament, which has been an early TV ratings booster and something seemingly generating attention online too.
On every one of the league's designated in-season tournament nights, attention for the unusual courts and jerseys skyrockets on social media. Players seem to be taking the games more seriously too, which has added to the intensity of several of them.
And we haven't even gotten to the knockout phase or the semifinals and finals in Las Vegas.
Like the play-in tournament before it, this bit of a departure from Adam Silver and the league office seems to be working. And what's more impressive is that it's working right away.
On top of an incredibly deep and worldwide talent pool, the NBA's recent innovations are keeping it relevant in a modern world with endless entertainment options.
Unless noted otherwise, statistics are courtesy of Basketball Reference, Cleaning the Glass and PBP Stats, and are current following games on November 24, 2023.
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