Predicting 5 Biggest Flight Risks in 2024 NBA Free Agency
It's November, which means we're still eight months away from NBA free agency, but it's never too early to speculate about the futures of individual free agents.
In 2024, there are bound to be plenty headed to new teams.
In assessing who's the biggest flight risk, current teams were a big factor. If a veteran on an expiring contract is on a roster nowhere near contention, the chances of him leaving are higher. The type of free agency is important, too. An unrestricted free agent has an easier path to a new organization than a restricted free agent or someone (or some team) that needs to decide on a player option or team option.
That doesn't mean players with options weren't considered. There's a world in which things continue to go sideways for the Los Angeles Clippers and their trio of stars on player options (Kawhi Leonard, Paul George and Russell Westbrook) get a wandering eye. Perhaps LeBron James' son, Bronny, crushes expectations at USC, gets drafted in the first round and makes his dad think about declining his player option with the Los Angeles Lakers to join his son.
For each of the players here—sorted from least to most likely to impact a championship pursuit—the off ramp is clearer. It's easy to imagine any of them in different jerseys for 2024-25.
Gordon Hayward
1 of 5
Gordon Hayward makes little to no sense for the rebuilding Charlotte Hornets. That doesn't mean he's been an on-court hindrance to the team this season, though. In fact, the Hornets have been slightly less dreadful when he plays.
But Hayward turns 34 in March. He's squarely in the post-prime phase of his career. There's little to no development left for him. And every minute he spends on the floor is one that could potentially be given to younger players in need of reps, like rookie forward Brandon Miller and whomever joins the team from next year's draft.
If he continues to play like he has in 2023-24, Hayward could have a few suitors for a mid-level exception-type deal, too.
He's no longer who he was at his peak, but Hayward is a strong wing who may be able to play some 4 as he ages. His three-point shot is a bit off this season, but he's above-average from the outside for his career. Perhaps most intriguing, he's still a solid playmaker for his position. Even on a team with LaMelo Ball dominating possessions, he's averaging 4.6 assists.
He could help a playoff team or title contender as a secondary creator off the bench or even as a fourth or fifth starter in the right context.
DeMar DeRozan
2 of 5
DeMar DeRozan could (should?) be a trade candidate ahead of the Feb. 8 trade deadline. But if he remains with the Chicago Bulls beyond then, the rest of the season might feel like a countdown to his free agency.
His situation is a little different than Hayward's in that the Bulls still have a veteran-heavy roster, but they're in dire need of a rebuild. Whenever that starts—whether it's at the trade deadline or next summer—the 34-year-old DeRozan won't make much sense for them.
At this point in his career, he should probably be angling toward a role similar to the one described for Hayward.
For the 13th time in 15 seasons, DeRozan is on track for a below-average effective field-goal percentage. And for the 13th time in 15 seasons, his team's point differential is better when he's off the floor.
Both numbers suggest he may have been miscast for a while. Instead of being a first or second option, perhaps DeRozan is best suited to dominate second units as a mid-range scorer and underrated distributor.
That role might be available to him through some playoff team's mid-level exception.
Buddy Hield
3 of 5
There's a real temptation to swap Buddy Hield with the next player on this list. Shooting like his could move the needle for just about any contender. And over the last five years, his 3.5 assists per 75 possessions show he's a better ball-mover than his reputation suggests.
Ultimately, though, Hield is still essentially a specialist. While he specializes in the game's most important skill, he doesn't check quite as many boxes as the next player.
Either way, he seems unlikely to spend the rest of his career with the Indiana Pacers. Shams Charania of The Athletic reported in September that Hield and the Pacers had "started a dialogue to work on finding a potential trade" after extension negotiations "stalled out."
Depending on he and his agent's view of his value, a number of teams should be interested.
Stephen Curry and Sam Hauser are the only players in NBA history who match or exceed each of Hield's career marks for three-point attempts per possession and three-point percentage. That combination of volume and efficiency from deep could supercharge the right offense. (It already has in a few cases).
While the Pacers' offensive explosion this season could convince both sides to keep this partnership going, the team also has the development and roles of Bennedict Mathurin, Aaron Nesmith, Andrew Nembhard and a 2024 first-rounder to think about.
James Harden
4 of 5
James Harden has played for four different teams since January 2021. He's effectively quit on three of them. And the Los Angeles Clippers promptly lost five straight games after he made his debut with them this season.
Harden's heliocentric brand of basketball has fallen out of favor around the league in recent years. And his decline in athleticism has made that style less effective for him than it was at his peak.
Harden's list of playoff meltdowns grew last year, too. He had some huge moments at times, but averaging 11.0 points and shooting 25.9 percent from the field in back-to-back losses that sent the Philadelphia 76ers home provided the lasting images from that run.
Still, Harden was instrumental in Joel Embiid winning MVP last season. Harden-to-Embiid was the most prolific assist combo in the league. And the big man's scoring numbers were better when Harden was on the floor than they were when he was off.
Averaging at least 20 points and 10 assists in each of the three seasons prior to this one suggest Harden can still produce at a high level, too. Those aren't the MVP-caliber numbers he was putting up for the Houston Rockets in the mid-2010s, but they're still better than most point guards.
If he learns how to operate as a third or fourth wheel playing alongside Paul George and Kawhi Leonard this season—a big "if"—all of Harden's shortcomings could be minimized in this last stretch of his Hall of Fame career.
If he does learn to do that, the chances of him re-signing with the Clippers will be higher. And there aren't a lot of teams projected to have cap space this summer, per Keith Smith of Spotrac, so a departure may not be the most lucrative route for Harden either.
Part of his push for a trade from Philly may have been tied to an effort to preserve his Bird rights, which would allow the Clippers to exceed the salary cap to re-sign him to a deal in excess of an exception-level contract.
And even if he's past his prime, the more star power L.A. has for its new arena, the better. That could incentivize the Clippers to pay him more than suitors on the open market.
But given his history, the fact that he'll be an unrestricted free agent this summer and the chance his team won't live up to now-lofty expectations, he almost has to be considered a flight risk by default.
Pascal Siakam
5 of 5
Pascal Siakam is a high-profile flight risk for multiple reasons. He has yet to sign a contract extension with the Toronto Raptors, and it's unclear whether they want to keep him long term thanks to his positional overlap with rising star Scottie Barnes.
Siakam has been in trade rumors for months, and he doesn't really fit a Barnes-centric timeline.
Toronto's goal going forward should be building around the 22-year-old forward and surrounding him with as much young-ish shooting as possible. Siakam doesn't fit that mold, but he could still help plenty of other teams around the league.
His inefficiency as a scorer since the departure of Kawhi Leonard can be tough to look past, but he checks enough other boxes to headline this list.
Siakam is 6'8", has played some small-ball center and has quietly become one of the game's better non-point guard distributors. Since the start of 2020-21, he's averaged 5.2 assists. His ability to put pressure on the paint should create more time and space for the shooters on whichever team he plays for in 2024-25.
With Joel Embiid's ability to play from the perimeter, perhaps that team could be the Philadelphia 76ers (projected to have nearly $40 million in cap space).
The Orlando Magic (also projected to have room) wouldn't surround him with the most shooting, but that front office has long been interested in acquiring as much length and versatility as possible. Given the quick development of Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner, they may be ready to make win-now moves, too.
The Detroit Pistons are the last team that might have enough cap space to make a traditional free-agent pursuit of Siakam, but his struggles as an outside shooter wouldn't fit well on a team giving rotation minutes to Cade Cunningham, Jaden Ivey and Ausar Thompson (all of whom have career effective field-goal percentages below 50).
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