Remaining CFB Games That Could Upend the 2023 Playoff Race
The race toward the 2023 College Football Playoff has thinned considerably, but it's still a congested group at the top.
Five power-conference programs enter Week 12 with a perfect record. This is the first time in the 10-year CFP era that a handful of teams remain unbeaten this late in the regular season.
Additionally, there are four squads with a 9-1 mark. They all remain squarely in the CFP hunt.
Perhaps we don't actually see any upsets in the final two weeks of the regular season and conference championships. Maybe it actually will be Georgia, Florida State, Washington and the Big Ten champion holding unblemished records, making Selection Day a drama-less affair.
There are several key games that can create some chaos for the 2023 CFP, though. And you know we'll be watching them closely.
Setting the Field
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Tier 1 Contenders
1. Georgia (10-0)
2. Ohio State (10-0)
3. Michigan (10-0)
4. Florida State (10-0)
5. Washington (10-0)
Tier 2 Contenders
6. Oregon (9-1)
7. Texas (9-1)
8. Alabama (9-1)
9. Louisville (9-1)
Week 12
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High Alert: Washington at Oregon State
Even if Washington loses, the Huskies would have a return path to the Top Four. The problem is a hypothetical that is very realistic.
Let's say Georgia, Florida State and the Big Ten champion are 13-0. Would the CFP selection committee rank Washington over Texas if both teams are 12-1 and win a league title? It's possible, especially since Oregon has been above Texas so far. But it's not a certainty.
Medium Risk: Notable Road Games
Georgia is the clear favorite in a trip to Tennessee, but it's still an SEC road game against the nation's No. 18 team. Within the 9-1 group, Texas and Louisville travel to Iowa State and Miami, respectively.
Both programs should make their respective league title game. But relative to the CFP, neither Texas nor Louisville can afford a second loss.
More to Know: A Trip to the Desert
Even if Michigan lost at Maryland or Ohio State fell to Minnesota, neither result—as stunning as it'd be—would terribly disrupt the CFP.
Even if an upset happened, the winner of the finale between U-M and OSU will play for a Big Ten title and a likely spot in the Playoff anyway.
Week 13
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Guaranteed Shakeup: Ohio State at Michigan
The winner is nearly in. The loser is almost assuredly out.
Unlike last season, when Ohio State managed to snag the No. 4 seed despite losing this game to Michigan, the rest of the nation hasn't cooperated with a barrage of chaos to date. It's unlikely that any conference will send two programs to the CFP in 2023.
High Alert: Key Rivalry Games
Two years ago, a mediocre Auburn team barely fell short of upsetting Alabama. Oregon State pulled off an epic comeback to edge Oregon last season. Texas Tech clipped Texas in 2022 as well. Kentucky has four straight wins against Louisville.
I'm not saying any of these upsets will happen, but recent history has showed it's possible.
Medium Risk: The Rest of the Rivalries
Do I believe Georgia Tech will stun top-ranked Georgia or a reeling Washington State squad will shock Washington? Nope. Florida State should harmlessly take down Florida, too.
We have seen strange results many times in college football, though, so it's worth mentioning.
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Conference Championships
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Winner-Take-All Possibilities: Pac-12 and SEC Title Games
One caveat here is the Pac-12 would need Washington and Oregon to hold 12-0 and/or 11-1 records. The same goes for the SEC, which has a clash between Georgia and Alabama locked in.
In those scenarios, though, the winner of these two championship games should be headed to the CFP.
Medium Risk: Chaos in the ACC, Big Ten or Big 12
The key point to remember is that I'm not saying a particular upset is likely. The objective is considering some hypotheticals.
What if 11-1 Louisville beat 12-0 Florida State for the ACC crown? That would create a fascinating twist in the discussion, particularly if Texas lost to anyone in the Big 12 title game. Throw in Iowa somehow managing to stun Michigan or Ohio State, and we could have absolute mayhem.
Consider this: How would the committee sort through Alabama, Oregon and Louisville—and even Texas!—as one-loss conference champions and Georgia, Florida State, U-M/OSU and Washington as one-loss non-winners? It might seem simple, but the committee is not consistent. Who knows if a conference title matters more than the eye test?
Most likely, we won't encounter maximum chaos. But as always, these results in league championships are hugely impactful.
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