NFL Odds Week 11: Top Longshots to Bet Against the Spread
The upsets keep rolling in during the 2023 season. Over the weekend, we saw the Arizona Cardinals, Houston Texans, Cleveland Browns and Denver Broncos all win as underdogs with last-second field goals.
In all, six teams won games in Week 10 by kicking field goals as time expired. This serves as the latest and perhaps greatest example of just how competitive the NFL has become this year.
Will we see more upsets in Week 11? Probably. Below, we'll examine a few underdogs we like based on the midweek lines.
Check the latest lines at DraftKings.
Pittsburgh Steelers +4 at Cleveland Browns
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The Cleveland Browns have as much momentum as they've had at any point in the 2023 season. They've won four of their last five and just overcame a 14-point fourth-quarter deficit to beat the Baltimore Ravens on the road.
However, the Pittsburgh Steelers, who just keep finding ways to win, won't be intimidated. The Steelers outlasted the Browns in their first meeting, and with a newfound ground game—sparked by rookie tackle Broderick Jones—they do have the offense to keep pace with Cleveland.
Injuries at offensive tackle loom as a significant issue for the Browns, and now starting quarterback Deshaun Watson is dealing with another injury. He injured his ankle against the Ravens, and NFL Network's Ian Rapoport reported that "more information is needed" to determine Watson's status for Week 11.
It would be a surprise if Watson doesn't play, but having him at less than 100 percent with backup offensive linemen against T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith is problematic.
The Steelers continue to find ways to win games they probably shouldn't. They'll find a way to at least keep this one close.
New York Jets +7 at Buffalo Bills
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This is not an overreaction to the Buffalo Bills' Monday night loss to the Broncos. Buffalo has been battling defensive injuries for most of the season, and its offense can't seem to find consistent playmakers on a weekly basis.
Add in Josh Allen's penchant for giving the ball to the opposition, and the Bills are in serious trouble. On Tuesday, they fired offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, according to ESPN's Adam Schefter.
This is a pivotal AFC East showdown, and if Buffalo loses, it could fall out of the playoff race entirely. The same is true for the New York Jets, who don't have a ton on which to hand their hat, aside from a solid defense Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall.
However, those three things might be enough to get New York a win in Week 11. The Jets can attack a Bills run defense allowing 4.6 yards per carry, and if Zach Wilson can hit the occasional deep ball, New York will put points on the board.
Right now, it's extremely hard to trust that Allen will protect the football, and a series of turnovers could easily hand this game to the visiting Jets—just as it did to Denver.
Expect the Jets to keep themselves within striking distance. Buffalo hasn't won by more than a touchdown since Week 4.
Minnesota Vikings +2 at Denver Broncos
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After back-to-back wins over the Kansas City Chiefs and the Bills, the Broncos suddenly look like a formidable team. Their defense has shown dramatic improvement in recent weeks, and Russell Wilson has improved under Sean Payton.
However, the Minnesota Vikings have also shown improvement during the season, and they've won five straight despite losing starting quarterback Kirk Cousins in Week 8.
Trade-deadline acquisition Joshua Dobbs has finished the last two games for Minnesota and has played phenomenally. As a Viking, he's thrown for 426 yards with three touchdowns and a 101.4 passer rating while rushing for 110 yards and two more scores.
There's a chance that Dobbs will have star receiver Justin Jefferson (hamstring) at his disposal against Denver.
"It's going to be a major, major boost for us, getting the best receiver in football back out there," Vikings head coach Kevin O'Connell said, per Ellis Williams of the team's official website.
Minnesota's defense is playing extremely well under new coordinator Brian Flores, and Dobbs looks like he's been in O'Connell's system for years. Don't be surprised if the Vikings pull off another outright upset.
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