Ranking All 30 MLB Teams as a Free-Agent Destination for the 2023-24 Offseason
Major League Baseball's 30 teams technically have an equal chance to sign a given free agent, but some destinations are simply better than others, aren't they?
So, it seemed worthwhile to rank all 30 teams based on their attractiveness to free agents. It was a judgment call that took the following into consideration:
- Payroll Situation: This concerns where teams' payrolls are projected for 2024 relative to what they spent in 2023, as well as relevant historical data and reporting on teams' plans.
- Contention Timeline: Let's just assume that, everything else being equal, players prefer to work for teams that can promise Ws in addition to dollars. If the farm system looks like a solid pipeline for future teams, even better.
- Quality of Life: How is the team's stadium? And does it draw? How about the cost of living within the city? And since these are high earners we're talking about, how high do the state's income taxes go?
For the cost of living question, NerdWallet's calculator was used with New York as the standard. It's where MLB is headquartered and also happens to be the most expensive place to live in the United States.
Otherwise, payroll data is courtesy of RosterResource at FanGraphs and Cot's Baseball Contracts. Farm system and prospect rankings are courtesy of B/R's own Joel Reuter.
30. Oakland Athletics
1 of 30
Payroll Situation
- 2023 Payroll: $59 million
- Projected 2024 Payroll: $40 million
These numbers hypothetically indicate that the A's could add as much as $19 million in new salaries, which isn't a small sum by their standards.
It's hard to count on it, though. They have never spent more than $30 million on a domestic free agent, and their total spending on the open market since 1991 ranks above only three other franchises.
The upcoming move to Las Vegas may not change much. It's not happening until 2028 and, as outlined by Evan Drellich of The Athletic, it's hardly guaranteed to be a windfall anyway.
Contention Timeline
- 2023 Record: 50-112, 5th in AL East
- Farm System Rank: 23
Whether you go off their 112 losses or their minus-339 run differential, the A's were by far the worst team in MLB this season.
Save for Zack Gelof and Shea Langeliers, they also don't have much in the way of solid building blocks in the majors. The farm system, meanwhile, needs to get a lot better if they want to put any kind of contender together before the Vegas move.
Quality of Life
- Stadium: Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum since 1968
- 2023 Attendance: 832,352 (30th)
- Cost of Living vs. New York: -39%
- Highest State Tax Rate: 12.30%
There are no new insults left to be lobbed at the Coliseum, which was also the only stadium to draw under a million fans this year. Otherwise, Oakland is among the 10 most expensive MLB cities, and California's tax rates go higher than those of any other state.
29. Chicago White Sox
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Payroll Situation
- 2023 Payroll: $177 million
- Projected 2024 Payroll: $137 million
The two biggest payrolls in White Sox history have come in the last two seasons, so it's slightly suboptimal that these seasons yielded 81 and 101 losses.
Unsurprisingly, a step back is in order. New general manager Chris Getz hasn't mentioned a specific figure, but Dan Hayes of The Athletic suggests a "drastic reduction is coming."
Still, the White Sox may not be totally inactive in free agency. Though they're certainly rebuilding, Getz has spoken of wanting to "make some adjustments to improve in 2024."
Contention Timeline
- 2023 Record: 61-101, 4th in AL Central
- Farm System Rank: 18
Even if they don't trade incumbent stars like Dylan Cease, Luis Robert Jr. and Eloy Jiménez, it's going to be a while before the White Sox are contenders again.
If anything, trading those guys might actually hasten the turnaround time. While their farm system isn't in terrible shape, shortstop Colson Montgomery (No. 20) and left-hander Noah Schultz (No. 42) are its only standout prospects.
Quality of Life
- Stadium: Guaranteed Rate Field since 1991
- 2023 Attendance: 1,669,628 (24th)
- Cost of Living vs. New York: -50%
- Highest State Tax Rate: 5.95%
Guaranteed Rate Field is an unspectacular ballpark that doesn't often rise above the middle of the pack for attendance. The White Sox are better off selling prospective free agents on Chicago, which some might consider to be worth its relatively expensive cost of living.
28. Colorado Rockies
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Payroll Situation
- 2023 Payroll: $172 million
- Projected 2024 Payroll: $137 million
The Rockies opened 2023 with the highest payroll in their history, so it was odd that owner Dick Monfort's hopes for the season only went as high as ".500 ball."
As Colorado fell well short of playing even that well, it seems doubtful it will use that $35 million gap to add significant talent. Even if nobody is outright saying it, a payroll reduction seems in order.
Yet it may not be a totally silent winter for the Rockies, as general manager Bill Schmidt spoke in September of wanting to add depth. It's not much, but it's something.
Contention Timeline
- 2023 Record: 59-103, 5th in NL West
- Farm System Rank: 15
To give credit where it's due, Nolan Jones had a heck of a breakout and fellow rookie Brenton Doyle more than deserved to win the Gold Glove. Shortstop Ezequiel Tovar is a slick defender in his own right.
It's otherwise depressing how little the Rockies have going for them at the major league level. And no thanks to Zac Veen's lost season, the farm isn't looking much better.
Quality of Life
- Stadium: Coors Field since 1995
- 2023 Attendance: 2,607,935 (13th)
- Cost of Living vs. New York: -54%
- Highest State Tax Rate: 4.40%
Here we find the best reasons for anyone to want to play for the Rockies. Coors Field and Colorado in general are beautiful, and neither the cost of living in Denver nor the state's taxes are exorbitant.
27. Washington Nationals
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Payroll Situation
- 2023 Payroll: $109 million
- Projected 2024 Payroll: $123 million
The Nationals rank 12th in free-agent spending since 1991, which is remarkable given that it wasn't until the 2010s that they really became a player in the market.
Will they ever return to those big-spending ways? One would think so, but probably not this winter.
To hear it from Mark Zuckerman of MASN Sports, the team is "still focused on identifying those long-term parts to the puzzle" and likely won't spend until that process is complete.
Contention Timeline
- 2023 Record: 71-91, 5th in NL East
- Farm System Rank: 13
What the Nationals have may not be entirely clear just yet, but they should like some of their pieces. Keibert Ruiz and CJ Abrams are two good building blocks in the lineup, while Josiah Gray and MacKenzie Gore had their moments on the mound this year.
Though Washington's farm system isn't terribly deep, it is headlined by two of the three best outfield prospects in the game: Dylan Crews (No. 4) and James Wood (No. 6).
Quality of Life
- Stadium: Nationals Park since 2008
- 2023 Attendance: 1,865,832 (22nd)
- Cost of Living vs. New York: -35%
- Highest State Tax Rate: 10.75%
Were it not for New York and San Francisco, Washington, D.C. would be the most expensive of all the MLB-hosting cities. Income taxes in the District are likewise in the top 10. And as for whether Nationals Park is worth such things, let's just say that's in the eye of the beholder.
26. Tampa Bay Rays
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Payroll Situation
- 2023 Payroll: $79 million
- Projected 2024 Payroll: $126 million
With regard to the possibility of running a higher payroll in 2024, Rays president of baseball operations Erik Neander insisted in October that "we have the ability to do that."
But if they hold all of their payroll commitments for next season, they stand to shatter the club's Opening Day high of $83.9 million by $42 million. That just plain seems unlikely.
If so, they may have to make cuts before they can get in on any free agents. Even then, it's worth a reminder that the franchise has never gone over $40 million for a free agent.
Contention Timeline
- 2023 Record: 99-63, 2nd in AL East
- Farm System Rank: 7
That the Rays are one of the most consistent contenders in the American League is their saving grace, and this is one thing that's unlikely to change in 2024.
For one thing, you can never count the Rays out from turning a seemingly random guy into a star. For another, their strong farm system is headlined by the No. 2 prospect in baseball: Junior Caminero.
Quality of Life
- Stadium: Tropicana Field since 1998
- 2023 Attendance: 1,440,301 (27th)
- Cost of Living vs. New York: -60%
- Highest State Tax Rate: 0.0%
The Tampa area is an affordable haven in a state that doesn't have income taxes, so any player who signs with the Rays does so knowing that it'll be easy on their wallet. Yet even if it's not as dismal as the Oakland Coliseum, Tropicana Field is a pit in its own right.
25. Kansas City Royals
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Payroll Situation
- 2023 Payroll: $91 million
- Projected 2024 Payroll: $69 million
It's not in the Royals' character to break the bank on the open market. They rank 24th in free-agent spending since 1991 and have topped out at $72 million for a single player.
And yet, they know they have needs. General manager J.J. Picollo is eyeing his pitching staff and his offense, with special priorities on starting pitchers and both power and on-base acumen.
Such things don't come cheap, so the Royals will hopefully at least fill the $22 million gap between where their 2023 payroll ended and where their 2024 payroll is slated to start.
Contention Timeline
- 2023 Record: 56-106, 5th in AL Central
- Farm System Rank: 29
There are individual Royals worth shouting out, including Vinnie Pasquantino, MJ Melendez and especially Bobby Witt Jr. fresh off his breakout year.
Yet the big picture here is an ugly one. If there's a place where no team wants to be, it's one with that bad of a record and that weak of a farm system.
Quality of Life
- Stadium: Kauffman Stadium since 1973
- 2023 Attendance: 1,307,052 (28th)
- Cost of Living vs. New York: -61%
- Highest State Tax Rate: 4.95%
On the plus side, Kauffman Stadium is still one of the better places to watch a ballgame even though it turned 50 years old in 2023. And players' dollars go far in Kansas City, as only three MLB cities rank below it for cost of living.
24. Pittsburgh Pirates
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Payroll Situation
- 2023 Payroll: $70 million
- Projected 2024 Payroll: $53 million
No team has spent less in free agency since 1991 than the Pirates, so any notion that they're a team to watch must be taken with a grain of salt.
All the same, they've had some money come off their books and there's optimism about 2024 within the organization. In general manager Ben Cherington's words: "We want to win more than 84 games."
It's doubtful any especially big splashes are coming, but the Bucs are at least a candidate to invest in starting pitching depth.
Contention Timeline
- 2023 Record: 76-86, 4th in NL Central
- Farm System Rank: 8
This season started (20-8) better than it ended (56-78) for the Pirates, but it's surely a positive that they avoided a third straight 100-loss season.
Assuming they don't trade anyone, they are moving forward with a solid core of Ke'Bryan Hayes, Oneil Cruz, Mitch Keller and David Bednar at the top level. They also have five top-100 prospects, including arguably the game's best pitching prospect in Paul Skenes.
Quality of Life
- Stadium: PNC Park since 2001
- 2023 Attendance: 1,630,624 (25th)
- Cost of Living vs. New York: -58%
- Highest State Tax Rate: 3.07%
Never blame PNC Park for the Pirates' ongoing struggle to draw fans. It might be the single most beautiful ballpark in the world. And in addition to Pittsburgh's affordable cost of living, only Arizona's taxes go lower than Pennsylvania's among MLB states that charge them.
23. Detroit Tigers
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Payroll Situation
- 2023 Payroll: $121 million
- Projected 2024 Payroll: $79 million
Much has happened in the two years since the Tigers made a play to contend by signing Eduardo Rodriguez and Javier Báez, but not much of it has been good.
E-Rod is a free agent again, Báez has been a bust and the guy who signed both of them got canned. So, even though the flexibility to spend is there, the will might not be just yet.
"Recent history in this game will tell you that some organizations have either overestimated their proximity to contention or they have tried to take a short cut to contention by spending heavily in free agency, and it hasn't worked," president of baseball operations Scott Harris said in October.
Contention Timeline
- 2023 Record: 78-84, 2nd in NL Central
- Farm System Rank: 10
Though their playoff drought reached nine seasons, this year at least saw Riley Greene, Spencer Torkelson and Kerry Carpenter find their strides.
Two more promising young hitters are on the way in Colt Keith (No. 15) and Max Clark (No. 26), so any free agents interested in the Tigers might rightfully see a chance to get in before things really take off.
Quality of Life
- Stadium: Comerica Park since 2000
- 2023 Attendance: 1,612,876 (26th)
- Cost of Living vs. New York: -57%
- Highest State Tax Rate: 4.05%
Even if it hasn't been much of a draw lately, Comerica Park does get full when the Tigers are playing well. It's also an affordable living experience for Tigers players, specifically in the sense that Michigan's income taxes are on the lower end of the MLB spectrum.
22. Miami Marlins
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Payroll Situation
- 2023 Payroll: $110 million
- Projected 2024 Payroll: $100 million
Nobody can say Jeffrey Loria looks better in retrospect, but Bruce Sherman hasn't exactly been what the Marlins needed in the owner's box.
In addition to driving away Derek Jeter with his frugality, Sherman also caused general manager Kim Ng's ouster by effectively trying to demote her. In her place now is Peter Bendix, whose priority is "building long-term, sustainable success."
All this would make it hard to count on the Marlins to spend in free agency even if they had the budget to do so. And from looking at those numbers, they barely do.
Contention Timeline
- 2023 Record: 84-78, 3rd in NL East
- Farm System Rank: 28
Though the Marlins did make the playoffs this year, the way in which they did it is almost certainly unsustainable. A team just can't go 33-14 in one-run games every year.
The team's future is otherwise clouded by Sandy Alcantara's recovery from Tommy John surgery, Jorge Soler's free agency and a farm system that only has one top 100 prospect in right-hander Noble Meyer (No. 76).
Quality of Life
- Stadium: LoanDepot Park since 2012
- 2023 Attendance: 1,162,819 (29th)
- Cost of Living vs. New York: -51%
- Highest State Tax Rate: 0.0%
Florida's lack of income taxes will surely be alluring for the Marlins' free-agent targets, but it's undercut somewhat by the fact that Miami isn't the cheapest place to live. LoanDepot Park, meanwhile, is a place devoid of character in addition to big crowds.
21. Cleveland Guardians
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Payroll Situation
- 2023 Payroll: $98 million
- 2024 Projected Payroll: $88 million
By their standards, the Guardians' $39 million bet on Josh Bell and Mike Zunino in last winter's market was a bold play.
It didn't do them much good, though, leading Mandy Bell of MLB.com to speculate that they will avoid similar splashes this winter.
The club's hands may be tied anyway. There's not a lot of space between its final 2023 payroll and its projected payouts for 2024, and the timing just doesn't seem right to push things north of $100 million for the first time since 2019.
Contention Timeline
- 2023 Record: 76-86, 3rd in AL Central
- Farm System Rank: 20
The Guardians seemed on the verge of something big when they rode a wave of young talent to the AL Central title in 2022. Alas, it didn't carry over to 2023 and the farm system isn't stacked anymore.
Still, there are worse cores than Cleveland's. José Ramírez is an annual MVP candidate and Shane Bieber, Triston McKenzie, Tanner Bibee, Logan Allen and Gavin Williams is a heck of a starting rotation.
Quality of Life
- Stadium: Progressive Field since 1994
- 2023 Attendance: 1,834,068 (23rd)
- Cost of Living vs. New York: -62%
- Highest State Tax Rate: 3.99%
Progressive Field's standing among MLB stadiums isn't the same now as when it first opened in the 1990s, but at least players' dollars go far in Cleveland. Only one MLB city is a cheaper place to live, and Ohio's taxes are above only those of Pennsylvania and Arizona among MLB-hosting states that have taxes on income.
20. Cincinnati Reds
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Payroll Situation
- 2023 Payroll: $87 million
- Projected 2024 Payroll: $55 million
Historically speaking, the Reds aren't fond of free agency. They've never spent more than $64 million on a free agent, and they rank 28th in overall spending since 1991.
Yet with Joey Votto off the books, they would seem to have flexibility to add multiple free agents this winter. They're especially needed in a starting rotation that posted a 5.43 ERA this season.
It's not asking too much that Cincinnati at least matches its 2023 payroll, even if it doesn't blow all the way to the club's record payroll of $126.7 million from 2019.
Contention Timeline
- 2023 Record: 82-80
- Farm System Rank: 17
The Reds may only have a middling farm system, but that's in part because of how much talent they pulled from it in 2023. Highlighted by Elly De La Cruz and Andrew Abbott, they featured a historic collection of rookies.
So, as surprising as it was that they ultimately won 82 games, even better things should be in store going forward.
Quality of Life
- Stadium: Great American Ball Park since 2003
- 2023 Attendance: 2,038,302 (18th)
- Cost of Living vs. New York: -61%
- Highest State Tax Rate: 3.99%
That Great American Ball Park is not the most inviting place for pitchers could complicate the Reds' search for pitching. On the plus side, though, Ohio is a low-tax state and only three MLB cities have a lower cost of living than Cincinnati.
19. Milwaukee Brewers
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Payroll Situation
- 2023 Payroll: $126 million
- Projected 2024 Payroll: $116 million
The Brewers haven't been totally unafraid to spend, topping out at $80 million for Lorenzo Cain in free agency and going as high as $131.9 million with their payroll.
But this winter, they seem more likely to subtract than to add. They are reportedly open to moving any of their players, including Corbin Burnes and Willy Adames.
In theory, one benefit of such cuts is that they would widen that $9 million gap between what the Brewers spent in 2023 and what they project to spend in 2024. In reality, though, it's possible the space would simply go unfilled.
Contention Timeline
- 2023 Record: 92-70, 1st in NL Central
- Farm System Rank: 5
Though they're fresh off making the playoffs for the fifth time in six seasons, the Brewers seem to be at a crossroads with Craig Counsell gone and their roster prime for cutting.
That the club is sitting on a treasure trove of prospects that includes six top-100 guys—including No. 3 overall prospect Jackson Chourio—is the bright side. If Milwaukee does pivot to something resembling a rebuild, it should be brief.
Quality of Life
- Stadium: American Family Field since 2001
- 2023 Attendance: 2,551,347 (15th)
- Cost of Living vs. New York: -60%
- Highest State Tax Rate: 7.65%
American Family Field is nothing special, and you might be surprised that Wisconsin's top income tax rate ranks just below that of Massachusetts among MLB states. But unlike Boston, only five MLB cities offer a lower cost of living than Milwaukee.
18. Minnesota Twins
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Payroll Situation
- 2023 Payroll: $159 million
- Projected 2024 Payroll: $125 million
The Twins have been willing to spend recently, doing nine-figure deals with Carlos Correa in each of the last two winters and running their payroll higher than ever before this year.
But a step back is in order for 2024. According to Hayes, they could reduce their payroll into the $125-140 million range.
As they're already projected to open next season at $125 million, that means the Twins could add as much as $15 million. Or, of course, as little as zero dollars.
Contention Timeline
- 2023 Record: 87-75, 1st in AL Central
- Farm System Rank: 22
The good news is that, even with Max Kepler and Jorge Polanco potentially on the trading block, the Twins are set up well to keep winning games.
Their pitching staff goes plenty deep, and this season saw Royce Lewis and Edouard Julien arise as worthy lineup companions for Correa and Byron Buxton, who'll hopefully be healthy in 2024. In all likelihood, they'll be AL Central favorites once again.
Quality of Life
- Stadium: Target Field since 2010
- 2023 Attendance: 1,974,124 (19th)
- Cost of Living vs. New York: -59%
- Highest State Tax Rate: 9.85%
The cost of living in Minneapolis is comparable to that of Milwaukee, with the catch being that Minnesota's income taxes are heavier than Wisconsin's. The underrated Target Field is therefore the best thing the Twins have going for them in this arena.
17. San Diego Padres
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Payroll Situation
- 2023 Payroll: $255 million
- Projected 2024 Payroll: $198 million
In seemingly no time at all, the Padres went from rarely cracking the top 20 for payroll to taking up a consistent position in the top 10. Quite the ride, indeed.
Yet, even before San Diego owner Peter Seidler's death on Tuesday, the ride figured to stop in 2024 or at least slow down.
Reports came out in September that the Padres planned to lower their payroll down to about $200 million, or pretty much where it stands now. They may therefore have to cut before they can add.
Contention Timeline
- 2023 Record: 82-80, 3rd in NL West
- Farm System Rank: 11
If the Padres do cut, every indication is that it will be Juan Soto who goes in a trade. Even then, the club will have its work cut out to re-sign just NL Cy Young Award winner Blake Snell, much less Josh Hader and Michael Wacha.
Yet, even if all this leads to some backsliding, it shouldn't last for long. In San Diego's system are six top-100 prospects, including fifth-ranked catcher Ethan Salas.
Quality of Life
- Stadium: Petco Park since 2004
- 2023 Attendance: 3,271,554 (2nd)
- Cost of Living vs. New York: -40%
- Highest State Tax Rate: 12.30%
It doesn't help the Padres' cause that California's taxes are so high, but at least San Diego is more affordable than Los Angeles and San Francisco. And for its part, Petco Park surely deserves to be filled every night. It's a beauty.
16. Houston Astros
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Payroll Situation
- 2023 Payroll: $201 million
- Projected 2024 Payroll: $217 million
For a team that's been the powerhouse in the American League since 2017, it's shocking how little the Astros have spent in free agency.
They've generally favored short-term deals, preferring instead to develop and extend their own stars. To this end, it's now Kyle Tucker's turn and new deals are also needed for Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman.
This and the fact that the club's payroll is already due to rise in 2024 point toward little activity on the open market, though general manager Dana Brown has hinted that there could be a "potential scenario" that demands special treatment.
Contention Timeline
- 2023 Record: 90-72, 1st in AL West
- Farm System Rank: 30
This was another successful year for the Astros, who made it as far as the American League Championship Series for the seventh time in seven years.
Yet with their core stars getting older and shorter on club control, 2024 looks like it could be a "last dance" sort of year. This is to say nothing of the state of the farm system, which doesn't have even one top-100 prospect.
Quality of Life
- Stadium: Minute Maid Park since 2000
- 2023 Attendance: 3,052,347 (7th)
- Cost of Living vs. New York: -62%
- Highest State Tax Rate: 0.0%
If the Astros do shop for free agents, they can sell them on having a relatively new and unique ballpark as well as the fact that Texas has no income taxes and that Houston is tied with Cleveland as the most affordable American League city.
15. Seattle Mariners
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Payroll Situation
- 2023 Payroll: $140 million
- Projected 2024 Payroll: $139 million
The Mariners basically sat out free agency last winter, and the close alignment of those two numbers isn't the only suggestion that it'll be the same this winter.
"This is more of a narrative thing and I know the expectation is that bigger payrolls win trophies," Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto said in October. "I don't believe that that's true."
However, the Mariners do have some major free-agent splashes in their history, so it's not totally unbelievable when anyone hints at them as a potential destination for a top talent. Like, for example, Yoshinobu Yamamoto.
Contention Timeline
- 2023 Record: 88-72, 3rd in AL West
- Farm System Rank: 9
Though the Mariners failed to make it two straight playoff appearances after going 0-for-21 over the previous 21 seasons, let's not forget that they had the AL West lead to themselves as late as Sep. 3.
More Ws should be in their future, as it's hard to go wrong with a cornerstone superstar like Julio Rodríguez and one of the best top-to-bottom pitching staffs in the league.
Quality of Life
- Stadium: T-Mobile Park since 1999
- 2023 Attendance: 2,690,418 (10th)
- Cost of Living vs. New York: -37%
- Highest State Tax Rate: 0.0%
Seattle's cost of living is on par with that of Boston and Los Angeles, but Washington only taxes capital gains. And while T-Mobile Park has long since aged out of being "new," Mariners are always loud no matter how many of them show up.
14. Los Angeles Angels
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Payroll Situation
- 2023 Payroll: $215 million
- Projected 2024 Payroll: $153 million
The Angels can be one of the winter's biggest spenders if they want. That $62 million gap between their final 2023 payroll and projected 2024 payroll is the third-biggest in the league.
As to whether they do want to be a big spender, the answer seems to be more or less "yes."
Retaining Shohei Ohtani is nominally a priority. Even if that doesn't pan out, starting pitching, relief pitching and both infielders and outfielders are on the shopping list.
Contention Timeline
- 2023 Record: 73-89, 4th in AL West
- Farm System Rank: 27
Even if the money is there, the Angels may find selling themselves to free agents to be a hard sell. And not just because they're mired in a nine-year playoff drought.
This team just doesn't have much in the way of prospects, whether we're talking actual young talent or hope at the major league level. To the latter, Mike Trout's and Anthony Rendon's contracts can only become bigger problems.
Quality of Life
- Stadium: Angel Stadium since 1966
- 2023 Attendance: 2,640,575 (12th)
- Cost of Living vs. New York: -37%
- Highest State Tax Rate: 12.30%
It's a good thing Angel Stadium draws well, because it's nothing special as stadiums go. Playing in Southern California is also rough on the wallet. There's obviously how California taxes high earners, and the greater L.A. area trails only New York, San Francisco and Washington, D.C. for cost of living among MLB cities.
13. St. Louis Cardinals
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Payroll Situation
- 2023 Payroll: $178 million
- Projected 2024 Payroll: $155 million
The Cardinals opened this season with the highest payroll in their history, but it didn't do them much good as they landed in last place.
The plan nonetheless seems to be to double down. Team president Bill DeWitt III has promised an increased payroll, and specifically on the shopping list are two starters for what was a dreadful rotation this season.
Reading between the lines, the time may be now the Cardinals to do what would be only the second nine-figure deal they've ever done in free agency.
Contention Timeline
- 2023 Record: 71-91, 5th in NL Central
- Farm System Rank: 12
The Cardinals may have finished last in the NL Central this year, but it should be some comfort that the team that finished in first is probably about to go into a retooling phase.
Otherwise, St. Louis has a strong offense built upon Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, Jordan Walker and more young hitters than it really has room for. If it gets the pitching it needs, a quick turnaround should follow.
Quality of Life
- Stadium: Busch Stadium since 2006
- 2023 Attendance: 3,241,091 (4th)
- Cost of Living vs. New York: -65%
- Highest State Tax Rate: 4.95%
Missouri's income taxes aren't necessarily low, but St. Louis has the distinction of being the cheapest city to live in among all that host MLB teams. And while Busch Stadium isn't all that spectacular, you have to hand it to Cardinals fans for keeping it full year after year.
12. Boston Red Sox
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Payroll Situation
- 2023 Payroll: $199 million
- Projected 2024 Payroll: $177 million
Since pushing it to a club-record $232.6 million in 2019, the Red Sox have mostly been in the business of cutting payroll.
Now is a good time for that to change, as they are fighting for relevance not just in the AL East but also with their fans. They haven't been packing into Fenway Park like they did in the 2000s and 2010s.
Though it will all come down to ownership, an X-factor is chief baseball officer Craig Breslow's approach to free agency. It can't possibly be more cautious than his predecessor's.
Contention Timeline
- 2023 Record: 78-84, 5th in AL East
- Farm System Rank: 3
It's true that the Red Sox have finished in last place in three of the last four seasons. Yet, it's also true that they have a strong core, with Rafael Devers and Triston Casas at the heart of it.
If anything, the question will soon be how they will find time for all their young position players. Of their six top-100 prospects, all six swing a bat and wield a glove for a living.
Quality of Life
- Stadium: Fenway Park since 1912
- 2023 Attendance: 2,672,130 (11th)
- Cost of Living vs. New York: -37%
- Highest State Tax Rate: 9.00%
It's expensive to play for the Red Sox, as only New York, San Francisco and Washington, D.C. are less affordable among MLB-hosting cities. It's a good thing, then, that Fenway Park is a national treasure that is aging like a fine wine.
11. Chicago Cubs
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Payroll Situation
- 2023 Payroll: $190 million
- Projected 2024 Payroll: $178 million
Even if it's not reflected in their 2024 payroll, the Cubs have already signaled a willingness to be bold this winter by hiring manager Craig Counsell on a record-setting $40 million contract.
Some big signings could be incoming, as the Cubs have thus far been linked to Shohei Ohtani, Cody Bellinger and Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Any one of the three is going to require an investment worth hundreds of millions of dollars.
If so, the club-record $203.1 million payroll with which the North Siders opened the 2019 season may be doomed.
Contention Timeline
- 2023 Record: 83-79, 2nd in NL Central
- Farm System Rank: 2
Sans Bellinger and fellow free agent Marcus Stroman, a roster that wasn't good enough to make the playoffs in 2023 is weaker now.
It's nonetheless a good look that Dansby Swanson, Ian Happ, Seiya Suzuki, Nico Hoerner and Justin Steele are in for the long haul, and in the club's stacked farm system is an ace defender in center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong and three top-100 pitching talents.
Quality of Life
- Stadium: Wrigley Field since 1916
- 2023 Attendance: 2,775,149 (9th)
- Cost of Living vs. New York: -50%
- Highest State Tax Rate: 4.95%
Chicago isn't cheap, but at least it isn't New York, Los Angeles, San Francisco or Boston. The income tax rate for Illinois is also roughly half what it is for those states. Factoring in that Wrigley Field is the NL's answer to Fenway Park, playing for the Cubs is a sweet deal indeed.
10. Toronto Blue Jays
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Payroll Situation
- 2023 Payroll: $214 million
- Projected 2024 Payroll: $205 million
As recently as last month, Blue Jays president Mark Shapiro was cautioning against expecting that the club would raise payroll in 2024.
"I don't expect a dramatic philosophical shift in payroll. I expect us to stay in the same area," he said.
But things seemed to have changed since then. ESPN's Jeff Passan reported this week that the Blue Jays "want to do something big," and they've since been called "a sleeper" for Shohei Ohtani and otherwise linked to Cody Bellinger.
Contention Timeline
- 2023 Record: 89-73, 3rd in AL East
- Farm System Rank: 25
The Blue Jays may have won 89 games this year, but it generally felt like they had failed to launch even before they were swept out of the playoffs for the third time in four years.
All the same, that core duo of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette is special. And ditto for a starting rotation in which all five spots are occupied by All-Star hurlers.
Quality of Life
- Stadium: Rogers Centre since 1989
- 2023 Attendance: 3,021,904 (8th)
When the Blue Jays have a team worth watching, fans are known to show up to the Rogers Centre in droves. The team ranked third in the AL for attendance this year, and even led the Junior Circuit in that department back in 2016 and 2017.
As for the cost of living and taxes, it's too complicated to distill down into just two numbers. But Toronto is more affordable than New York at least, and the tax rate for the highest earners in Canada (33 percent) is actually lower in the United States (37 percent).
9. Arizona Diamondbacks
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Payroll Situation
- 2023 Payroll: $124 million
- Projected 2024 Payroll: $104 million
If ever there was an appropriate time for a team to stretch its budget, it has to be after going to the World Series, right?
Diamondbacks managing general partner Ken Kendrick seems to agree, as he recently told the Burns & Gambo Show of how the "economic windfall" of the club's pennant-winning season will allow for "some additions to the roster."
It doesn't seem out of the question that Arizona's record payroll of $131.6 million from 2018 could fall, in which case the budget should be there for at least one splash.
Contention Timeline
- 2023 Record: 84-78, 2nd in NL West and National League Champions
- Farm System Rank: 26
Frankly, that win-loss record and farm system ranking tempt one to wonder whether the Diamondbacks' World Series run wasn't so much the start of something big as a mere blip.
The core of a sustainable contender is there, though. Corbin Carroll and Ketel Marte will be around for the foreseeable future, while Zac Gallen should stick around through at least 2025.
Quality of Life
- Stadium: Chase Field since 1998
- 2023 Attendance: 1,961,182 (20th)
- Cost of Living vs. New York: -57%
- Highest State Tax Rate: 2.5%
Chase Field is beginning to show its age, but it's safe to assume Diamondbacks games will be a hotter ticket after this year. And while Phoenix isn't the cheapest place to live, Arizona's flat income tax rate is the lowest non-zero figure of any state with an MLB team.
8. Baltimore Orioles
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Payroll Situation
- 2023 Payroll: $66 million
- Projected 2024 Payroll: $74 million
To hear it from general manager Mike Elias, the Orioles are becoming more of a popular choice among free agents these days.
"It sure seems like it already, just the stuff that I hear at these meetings from agents is very encouraging," he said from the GM Meetings.
The club's recent history invites skepticism, but Brittany Ghiroli of The Athletic reported that "at least one starter and a backend reliever" are on the club's shopping list. And while it's doubtful it will go so far in 2024, it's worth noting the Orioles have stretched their payroll as high as $164.3 million.
Contention Timeline
- 2023 Record: 101-61, 1st in AL East
- Farm System Rank: 1
The Orioles already have Adley Rutschman and newly crowned AL Rookie of the Year Gunnar Henderson at the heart of the American League's strongest homegrown core, and they're not even done mining from their farm system.
Still, therewithin is MLB's No. 1 prospect, shortstop Jackson Holliday. Once he arrives, Baltimore's future will look that much brighter.
Quality of Life
- Stadium: Oriole Park at Camden Yards since 1992
- 2023 Attendance: 1,936,798 (21st)
- Cost of Living vs. New York: -56%
- Highest State Tax Rate: 5.75%
Oriole Park at Camden Yards turned 30 in 2022, but it's still one of the crown jewels among major league ballparks. So long as you're not a right-handed power hitter, that is, but even that lot doesn't need to be scared of the associated cost of living and taxes.
7. Atlanta
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Payroll Situation
- 2023 Payroll: $205 million
- Projected 2024 Payroll: $206 million
The plan in Atlanta is to carry a higher payroll in 2024, which you can take directly from president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos:
Of course, the club's payroll is already projected to go up next season. But the team must be serious about a substantial increase, as it's reportedly willing to spend on a starting pitcher.
Were that to be, say, Aaron Nola, Atlanta may well be prepared to do its first ever nine-figure deal in free agency.
Contention Timeline
- 2023 Record: 104-58, 1st in NL East
- Farm System Rank: 24
Atlanta has only won the National League East six years in a row, plus the World Series in 2021 and 100-plus games in each of the last two seasons. That good enough for you?
Further, the club's core is unrivaled both in its talent and its degree of club control. Ronald Acuña Jr., Matt Olson, Austin Riley, Spencer Strider, Sean Murphy, Ozzie Albies and Michael Harris II are all locked up through at least 2028.
Quality of Life
- Stadium: Truist Park since 2017
- 2023 Attendance: 3,191,505 (5th)
- Cost of Living vs. New York: -58%
- Highest State Tax Rate: 5.75%
Any free agent who joins Atlanta can expect to play in front of packed houses at Truist Park. And while it's not the most affordable city and state, nor is it the most expensive. It's basically firmly in the middle on both fronts.
6. New York Yankees
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Payroll Situation
- 2023 Payroll: $273 million
- Projected 2024 Payroll: $242 million
Not that anyone should be surprised, but the Yankees are MLB's single biggest spender in free agency since 1991.
It was therefore a return to form when they led the league in free-agent spending last winter, and the word from managing general partner Hal Steinbrenner is that the door isn't closed on a big splash this winter:
Put it this way: If the Yankees don't reset the bar for their payroll after spending a club-record sum this year, it'll be a disappointment.
Contention Timeline
- 2023 Record: 82-80, 4th in AL East
- Farm System Rank: 16
If there's any reason for free agents to think twice about joining the Yankees, it's that this team's contention window may be short.
They were barely contenders this year, and Aaron Judge and Gerrit Cole are already past 30 and probably not far from the end of their primes. And save for Judge, the Yankees have had trouble growing and sustaining young talent in recent years.
Quality of Life
- Stadium: Yankee Stadium since 2009
- 2023 Attendance: 3,269,016 (3rd)
- Cost of Living vs. New York: N/A
- Highest State Tax Rate: 10.90%
Whether one is talking about the city, specifically, or the state, generally, New York is an expensive place to live. But some say it's the greatest city in the world, and at least Yankee Stadium is routinely packed despite being a glitzy knockoff of the original.
5. New York Mets
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Payroll Situation
- 2023 Payroll: $346 million
- Projected 2024 Payroll: $267 million
The Mets opened this season with a record-shattering payroll, so what are the chances they make up the gap between their 2023 payroll and projected 2024 expenses and then some?
Probably not great, actually. It seems nobody is expecting their payroll to go higher. And for his part, new president of baseball operations David Stearns has consistently stopped short of promising that it will.
At least one splash may be in order, though, specifically it's on Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Per MLB.com's Mark Feinsand, the Mets are "enamored" with the Japanese ace.
Contention Timeline
- 2023 Record: 75-87, 4th in NL East
- Farm System Rank: 4
Things obviously went pear-shaped for the Mets this year, but a team can do worse than a core of Francisco Lindor, Brandon Nimmo, Jeff McNeil, Kodai Senga, Francisco Álvarez and (for now) Pete Alonso.
It's also hard to improve a farm system as much as the Mets improved theirs in 2023. It may only have four top-100 guys, but don't let that trick you into thinking it's not deep.
Quality of Life
- Stadium: Citi Field since 2009
- 2023 Attendance: 2,573,555 (14th)
- Cost of Living vs. New York: N/A
- Highest State Tax Rate: 10.90%
Again, New York is New York and that means living there isn't exactly conducive to an affordable lifestyle. But it's also literally New York, and Citi Field is coming off its best year for attendance since 2016.
4. San Francisco Giants
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Payroll Situation
- 2023 Payroll: $196 million
- Projected 2024 Payroll: $147 million
That's a $49 million gap between where the Giants ended 2023 and where they project to begin 2024, and their real spending power may even eclipse that figure.
"The Giants, they're in on everything," Jon Heyman of the New York Post told MLB Network on Wednesday. "They're really not happy with the fact that they've had two mediocre years in a row after that one great year a few years ago. They're going big."
If the Giants do go big, it'll be about time they did after trying and failing to land Giancarlo Stanton, Bryce Harper, Aaron Judge and Carlos Correa in recent winters.
Contention Timeline
- 2023 Record: 79-83, 4th in NL West
- Farm System Rank: 21
Even if the money is good, any prospective Giant will have to wonder about the team's contention timeline. Suffice it to say they were more than one great player away in 2023.
But there are building blocks in place, including Logan Webb in the rotation and Patrick Bailey, Luis Matos and Marco Luciano in the lineup. And lest anyone think a team can't simply buy its way into October, a certain Texas team would like a word.
Quality of Life
- Stadium: Oracle Park since 2000
- 2023 Attendance: 2,500,153 (17th)
- Cost of Living vs. New York: -23%
- Highest State Tax Rate: 12.30%
San Francisco is the most expensive MLB city outside of New York and there's no need to repeat what's already been said about California's taxes. But as much as these things stink, some say Oracle Park is the best stadium in baseball.
3. Philadelphia Phillies
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Payroll Situation
- 2023 Payroll: $246 million
- Projected 2024 Payroll: $214 million
Five of the six nine-figure deals the Phillies have done in free agency have happened just in the last five years, yet they may be able to push the envelope even further.
President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski had this to say about his talks with owner John Middleton: "I've talked preliminarily with John...I would be surprised if we don't have the finances to support what we need to do."
This is juicy stuff, and it only seems juicier now in light of reporting that the Phillies could go for Yoshinobu Yamamoto if they can't re-sign Aaron Nola.
Contention Timeline
- 2023 Record: 90-72, 2nd in NL East
- Farm System Rank: 19
While it was a surprise when the Phillies made it to the World Series in 2022, it was an upset when they didn't make it back this year. They had it all working...until they didn't.
The big concern going forward is how much longer the club's core group of Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber and J.T. Realmuto is going to remain viable. For now, though, the Phillies are firmly among MLB's top powerhouses.
Quality of Life
- Stadium: Citizens Bank Park since 2004
- 2023 Attendance: 3,052,605 (6th)
- Cost of Living vs. New York: -56%
- Highest State Tax Rate: 3.07%
Pitchers need to think twice about signing up to work at Citizens Bank Park, but it's always packed with fans who are apparently more supportive than their reputation suggests. And among the MLB states that have income taxes, only Arizona's go lower than Pennsylvania's.
2. Texas Rangers
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Payroll Situation
- 2023 Payroll: $214 million
- Projected 2024 Payroll: $204 million
The Rangers are World Series champions in large part because of their recent willingness to take big swings in free agency, and they may have more in store.
"I expect the Rangers are going to be aggressive this offseason," Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic said during an appearance on Foul Territory on Monday. "They are going to be emboldened by their World Series triumph."
The Rangers haven't had much money come off their books, but it may not matter. Especially if they reel in Shohei Ohtani, next year figures to be a new high mark for the club's payroll.
Contention Timeline
- 2023 Record: 90-72, 2nd in AL West and World Series champions
- Farm System Rank: 6
The Rangers are contenders, alright. And if they do add a big-name free agent, he'll join a cast of stars that already includes Corey Seager, Marcus Semien and Adolis García.
Where there is room for concern is with their aging, expensive pitching staff. But the strength of the club's farm system is a nice counterweight here, especially since we already know what top prospect Evan Carter can do.
Quality of Life
- Stadium: Globe Life Field since 2020
- 2023 Attendance: 2,533,044 (16th)
- Cost of Living vs. New York: -58%
- Highest State Tax Rate: 0.0%
You know, the absence of income taxes in Texas and the general affordability of Arlington might explain why the Rangers have had so much success attracting free agents. They also play in the newest stadium in MLB, where attendance is sure to rise after this year.
1. Los Angeles Dodgers
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Payroll Situation
- 2023 Payroll: $236 million
- Projected 2024 Payroll: $142 million
See that $94 million gap between where the Dodgers ended 2023 and where they're slated to open 2024? It's big. Bigger than any other such gap, in fact.
There's enough space for Shohei Ohtani—who has seemed destined for Dodger Blue since at least last winter—plus whatever else the team may want. Like, say, Yoshinobu Yamamoto.
True, the Dodgers have been somewhat risk-averse in free agency under president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman, who's topped out at $162 million for Freddie Freeman. But if ever there was a time for him to flex the team's financial muscle, it's now.
Contention Timeline
- 2023 Record: 100-62, 1st in NL West
- Farm System Rank: 14
Say what you will about the Dodgers only having one World Series championship to show for it, but they've been far and away MLB's most consistent winner of the last decade.
That largely comes down to the organization's uncanny knack for getting the most out of young players and veterans, and it doesn't seem to be losing its edge. Just this year, the Dodgers made a star of James Outman and resurrected J.D. Martinez and Jason Heyward.
Quality of Life
- Stadium: Dodger Stadium since 1962
- 2023 Attendance: 3,837,079 (1st)
- Cost of Living vs. New York: -37%
- Highest State Tax Rate: 12.30%
There's no ignoring how costly it is for a player to live and work in Los Angeles. But if they're into such things, there are also much worse places for guys to grow their brands. And if nothing else, Dodger Stadium is a gem that's always packed.
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