Bowl Projections 2023: CFP Predictions After Latest Playoff Rankings

The math to determine the four College Football Playoff participants seems simple.

Six of the top eight programs in the latest CFB Playoff rankings are in line to face each other over the next month, two of which could occur in conference championship games.

The top-ranked Ohio State Buckeyes are building up to their November 25 showdown with the Michigan Wolverines. Michigan can confirm that is a battle of undefeated teams with a road win over the Penn State Nittany Lions on Saturday.

The Pac-12 and SEC title games could dwindle the number of playoff contenders further.

The Florida State Seminoles are the only team in the top eight that seems to have a completely clear path to the final four.

A handful of the teams beneath the top eight probably can't make the playoff, but they are positioning themselves to land one of the seven New Years' Six bowl berths that go to power-five programs.

Week 11 CFB Playoff Rankings

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ANN ARBOR, MI - NOVEMBER 04: Michigan Wolverines wide receiver Tyler Morris (8) runs down the sidelines for a long gain during the Michigan Wolverines versus the Purdue Boilermakers on Saturday November 4, 2023 at Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor, MI. (Photo by Steven King/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

1. Ohio State (9-0)

2. Georgia (9-0)

3. Michigan (9-0)

4. Florida State (9-0)

5. Washington (9-0)

6. Oregon (8-1)

7. Texas (8-1)

8. Alabama (8-1)

9. Ole Miss (8-1)

10. Penn State (8-1)

11. Louisville (8-1)

12. Oregon State (7-2)

13. Tennessee (7-2)

14. Missouri (7-2)

15. Oklahoma State (7-2)

16. Kansas (7-2)

17. Oklahoma (7-2)

18. Utah (7-2)

19. LSU (6-3)

20. Notre Dame (7-3)

21. Arizona (6-3)

22. Iowa (7-2)

23. Tulane (8-1)

24. North Carolina (7-2)

25. Kansas State (6-3)

CFB Playoff Projections

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ATHENS, GA - NOVEMBER 4: Daijun Edwards #30 of the Georgia Bulldogs tries to cut back on a running play during a game between University of Missouri and University of Georgia at Sanford Stadium on November 4, 2023 in Athens, Georgia. (Photo by Steve Limentani/ISI Photos/Getty Images)

Sugar Bowl (January 1): No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 4 Oregon

Rose Bowl (January 1): No. 2 Michigan vs. No. 3 Florida State

The assumption going into Week 11 is that the Michigan-Ohio State winner, the SEC champion, the Pac-12 champion and Florida State will round out the playoff field.

Michigan looked like the better overall team than Ohio State through 10 weeks. The Buckeyes beat Penn State and the Notre Dame Fighting Irish, but they have struggled at times against weaker Big Ten teams.

The Wolverines have not played as tough of a schedule, but they have consistently blown out their league foes. Their defense could limit Penn State's offense in the same way that the Buckeyes' unit did so a few weeks ago.

Michigan will be favored in its matchup with Ohio State. The winner of that contest will be an overwhelming favorite over the Big Ten West champion in the Big Ten title game.

Florida State will be the favorite in all of its remaining contests, including a potential ACC Championship Game against the Louisville Cardinals.

FSU just needs to win out to confirm its spot in the top four. The Seminoles should move up from No. 4 to No. 3 after the Michigan-Ohio State game.

The Georgia Bulldogs must be viewed as the top team in the SEC until an opponent proves otherwise. UGA's toughest test left will come against the Alabama Crimson Tide in the SEC Championship Game.

The two-time reigning national champion still needs to get past the Ole Miss Rebels and Tennessee Volunteers, but so far, UGA proved to be in a class above its SEC challengers.

The Oregon Ducks got stronger after their three-point loss to the Washington Huskies. Oregon's defensive play will be the difference against Michael Penix Jr. in the most likely Pac-12 Championship Game matchup.

If UGA and Michigan are the top two seeds, they should be the home team at traditional bowl sites for their respective conferences with the SEC at the Sugar Bowl and Big Ten at the Rose Bowl.

New Years' Six Projections

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LOS ANGELES, CA - NOVEMBER 04: Washington Huskies quarterback Michael Penix Jr. (9) escapes the rush from USC Trojans rush end Solomon Byrd (51) during a college football game between the Washington Huskies and the USC Trojans on November 4, 2023, at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum in Los Angeles, CA. (Photo by Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Cotton Bowl (December 29): Texas vs. Ohio State

Peach Bowl (December 30): Ole Miss vs. Penn State

Orange Bowl (December 30): Alabama vs. Louisville

Fiesta Bowl (January 1): Washington vs. Tulane

The losers of the Michigan-Ohio State game, Pac-12 and SEC Championship Games should fall into the New Years' Six.

Ole Miss and Penn State are at the front of the best of the rest category in college football. Their only two losses would come against top-10 teams, so they should remain in the top 12 of the CFB Playoff rankings.

The Texas Longhorns could end up as the odd team out of the playoff discussion if UGA, Michigan, FSU win their respective league title games.

Texas currently sits at No. 7 and its head-to-head win over Alabama will not mean anything if the Longhorns and Crimson Tide are not in direct competition for a playoff spot.

A two-loss Louisville should land a spot in the Orange Bowl to fill out the power-five participants in the NY6.

The Tulane Green Wave are the only Group of Five team in the current Top 25. They are the favorite to take up the G5 spot in the NY6 as long as they continue to win in the American Athletic Conference.