UFC 295 Predictions: Bleacher Report Main Card Staff Picks
This Saturday, the UFC will make its annual return to Madison Square Garden with the anticipated UFC 295 card.
The pay-per-view will be headlined by a fight for the vacant light heavyweight title, with Brazil's Alex Pereira taking on Jiri Prochazka of the Czech Republic. Pereira is the former middleweight champion, and Prochazka is a former champ at light heavyweight, so both have plenty of championship experience. They're also two of the most fearsome knockout artists in MMA today, so the expectation is that their fight will deliver.
Pereira and Prochazka were originally slated for the co-headlining slot but were elevated to the main event when the original headliner, a heavyweight title fight between champ Jon Jones and Stipe Miocic, fell through.
That shake-up also prompted the UFC to book a short-notice interim heavyweight title fight between top contenders Tom Aspinall and Sergei Pavlovich for the card's co-main event. Both heavyweights are on serious hot streaks and possess proven finishing prowess, so this one should also be fun while it lasts.
Before we get to the title fights, former strawweight champion Jessica Andrade will look to rebound from three straight stoppage losses against Brazilian jiu-jitsu specialist Mackenzie Dern, and lightweight knockout artists Matt Frevola and Benoit Saint Denis battle for a place in the division's top 15.
The responsibility of opening the pay-per-view will go to rising featherweights Diego Lopes and Pat Sabatini.
All in all, it's a great looking card full of matchups that could end in any number of ways.
As always, the B/R combat sports squad has you covered for predictions. Keep scrolling to see our picks for the UFC 295 main card.
Jiri Prochazka vs. Alex Pereira
1 of 5
Adam Kramer: From a sheer style standpoint, this is a fascinating, delightful fight. Two massive 205-pound fighters will square up, and it doesn't feel like this one is going to go to the judges. For Prochazka, coming off an injury and a long layoff, it's fair to question how that will impact his performance. For Pereira, who showed a lot in his fight against Jan Blachowicz, it's about squaring up a fighter with an awkward style and a lot of movement.
Ultimately, however, Pereira will find his shot and solve the puzzle. While Prochazka's skill set will be a challenge to deal with, especially early, Pereira will eventually find his window.
Pereira by knockout, Round 3
Tom Taylor: Pereira is considered one of the scariest knockout artists in the UFC right now. In fact, with Francis Ngannou out of the picture, he'd probably be the No. 1 pick for many people in that debate. That's a justified reputation. He's been a force of destruction in the Octagon, as he was in the kickboxing ring before that.
Just don't let Pereira's striking prowess distract you from Prochazka's. The Czech samurai has scored a ridiculous 25 of his 29 wins by knockout, and while he may not be as technically polished as Pereira, he's far more unpredictable than the Brazilian.
You can probably see where I'm going with this. Prochazka will need to be very careful for every moment this fight is on the feet, but if he's able to stay out of trouble, I think he ends this one in style.
Prochazka by knockout, Round 3
Lyle Fitzsimmons: I'm with Tom on this one. Though Pereira is as menacing a 205-pound commodity as I can imagine in a cage, to simply dwell on his highlight-reel KO ability is to forget how significant a toolbox Prochazka possesses.
Is it possible Prochazka will find himself in the same position that Israel Adesanya, also a dynamic and talented fighter, found himself in their first UFC fight? Sure. Always. But it's far more likely to me that Prochazka plays the long game, gets into the Brazilian's gas tank and gets a finish of his own in the octagonal "championship rounds."
Prochazka by TKO, Round 4
Sergei Pavlovich vs. Tom Aspinall
2 of 5
Adam Kramer: Losing Jon Jones on this card was a tremendous blow, and there's no real way to fill that void. With that said, this fight feels like the best possible backup plan, and it will be a fascinating clash between two fighters with such unique styles at heavyweight.
At this point, no one has been able to deal with Pavlovich's power. Even the punches his opponents block seem to cause issues, which is evident in his run of first-round knockouts that have become his calling.
Aspinall's skill set will indeed test this mindset, and he'll obviously look to get this to the ground for some submission work. But that power is so overwhelming, and Pavlovich's sheer force will ultimately make him an interim champion. What a fun fight, even if we don't get much of it.
Pavlovich by knockout, Round 1
Tom Taylor: Attaching an interim title to this fight was utterly pointless, but you didn't come here to read me ranting about that. Besides, no matter how the UFC dresses this fight up, it looks absolutely incredible on paper. Pavlovich might be the scariest knockout threat in the UFC right now, with six first-round KOs behind him, and Aspinall is also near the top of that list, with four first-round knockouts in the UFC and some quick submissions to boot.
It's impossible to confidently pick against Pavlovich, but Aspinall's smarts and well-roundedness will be the key in this fight. He's too clever to trade with Pavlovich and a good enough grappler that he doesn't need to. Much like Alistair Overeem once did, he drags the Russian to the mat and overwhelms him there.
Aspinall by TKO, Round 2
Lyle Fitzsimmons: Two fights. Two locksteps with Tom. As impressed as I am with Pavlovich and the foes he's stacked lately like cords of wood, I like Aspinall more. There's more to his game than the guys Pavlovich has met lately have possessed. And just like Mr. Taylor suggested, I think he eludes the decisive blows, gets his ominous foe into an uncomfortable position and takes it from there.
Aspinall by unanimous decision
Jessica Andrade vs. Mackenzie Dern
3 of 5
Adam Kramer: Let's address the losing streak. For Andrade, once you lose three consecutive fights, you enter a bit of a danger zone as a fighter. But the competition has been top-tier, as losses to Tatiana Suarez, Yan Xiaonan and Erin Blanchfield aren't exactly bad losses. What a run.
Still, she lost, and Dern is obviously capable and fitting for the next chapter. While Andrade has been overwhelmed by skill sets over the past three fights, I don't expect that to be the case here. Physically, she should be in this fight. Dern will obviously attempt to work this to the ground, although Andrade should offer enough on the feet and mat to keep up. This is a tricky one, but the underdog is live.
Andrade by decision
Tom Taylor: As Adam said, Andrade's losing streak isn't nearly as bad as it looks once you consider who she's been fighting. However, I do think the former strawweight champion is slowing down. The big question for me is whether she has slowed down enough to lose to somebody like Dern, who I believe she would have handled even just a couple of years ago.
Dern is catching Andrade at the right time. She has the jiu-jitsu and strength to hang with Andrade on the mat, and while her stand-up isn't exactly masterful, she's improved enough that she can probably avoid getting cracked. A combination of takedowns and ground control win her this fight over three rounds.
Dern by decision
Lyle Fitzsimmons: There's plenty of reason to go in either direction. Andrade is still near the most elite rung on the weight-class ladder based on who she's fought, and Dern has been on a successful run lately and has momentum on her side. If the timing is as Tom says it is, Dern will be able to get her to the floor and take care of things. But I'm leaning the other way. Losing streak or no losing streak, Andrade seems on a higher level, and I think she'll avoid the prolonged issues on the mat and get enough done on the feet to earn a nod.
Andrade by decision
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Matt Frevola vs. Benoit Saint Denis
4 of 5
Adam Kramer: What a fight. While attention will obviously be paid to the main and the co-main, this is an absolute banger. Frevola has been superb of late, delivering three straight first-round finishes. Saint Denis, meanwhile, has won four straight fights by stoppage, none of which have gone past the second round.
That is one way of pointing out the obvious: Don't blink during this fight. The edge, in my eyes, is the variety of ways in which Saint Denis can finish the opposition. Obviously, Frevola is incredibly dangerous, especially right now. But Saint Denis has too many tools, and those tools will come in handy early on.
Saint Denis by submission, Round 1
Tom Taylor: Yep, hats off to the UFC matchmakers for this absolute pearl of a matchup. Unless Frevola or Saint Denis surprises us by completely changing their style, this should be a wild, high-paced fight for as long as it lasts.
This one comes down to something I can't quite put my finger on. After watching Saint Denis' last few fights, I just don't see him losing to very many lightweights—even those in the top 15. I don't think Frevola will take a backward step, but this time, he'll be the one getting steamrolled.
Saint Denis by TKO, Round 1
Lyle Fitzsimmons: Thanks to the Almeida-Lewis snoozer last week, I'm a bit gun shy about pre-fight suggestions that a fight will deliver guaranteed fan titillation. But this does seem like a sure thing. And for me it comes down to which of either man's recent victories I value the most. That's where I lean toward Frevola's steamrolling (see what I did there?) of a similarly streaking Drew Dober. If the question is who gets who first, the answer here is Frevola.
Frevola by TKO, Round 1
Diego Lopes vs. Pat Sabatini
5 of 5
Adam Kramer: As in the main and the co-main, the odds on this fight are essentially a coin flip. Lopes has won three of his past four fights; Sabatini has won four of his last five. Both fighters are also coming off a submission win, which could make for some interesting moments on the ground.
In terms of takedowns and mat work, however, Sabatini has a significant advantage. If that style translates to this fight—and it should—it could make for some fascinating back-and-forth within the fight. Lopes doesn't get finished often, and that's one of the many reasons this will be all about control. Both fighters are equipped for it, but Sabatini simply seems better off to execute exactly what he wants to do.
Sabatini by decision
Tom Taylor: Lopes has gotten off to a great start in the UFC. He lost his short-noticed debut against ranked featherweight Movsar Evloev, but the fight was competitive enough that both earned Fight of the Night bonus checks. Then he dominated a very tough Gavin Tucker to a first-round submission.
Sabatini has been far more consistent than Lopes and has spent far more time in the UFC, but Lopes has been full of surprises so far, and I think he delivers another one here. He has the bigger moments on the feet and the mat and wins a decision.
Lopes by decision
Lyle Fitzsimmons: Lopes has 20 finishes in 22 wins. Sabatini has 13 in 18. So there's an excellent chance that a referee is going to get involved to wave this thing off at some point. And though Lopes is indeed coming in off an impressive wipeout of Gavin Tucker, he is 1-2 in UFC-related bouts compared to Sabatini's 5-1. That's a good enough tiebreaker for me.
Sabatini by TKO, Round 1
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