College Football Playoff Projections: Week 11 Rankings and Bowl Forecast
After a dizzying week around college football, the outlook for the 2023 bowl schedule has undergone several changes.
Ten teams officially earned bowl eligibility, but a few—including Air Force and Notre Dame—suffered a particularly hurtful loss. Both programs dropped out of a projected New Year's Six bowl appearance.
On the other hand, the height of the College Football Playoff conversation remains the same. The unbeaten power-conference teams—Florida State, Georgia, Michigan, Ohio State and Washington—are still leading this week's CFP rankings.
B/R's latest bowl predictions follow the fresh CFP Top 25.
Note: There are 41 bowls (82 bids) with 51 currently eligible teams. That number excludes James Madison and Jacksonville State, which can only be selected if there are not enough six-win teams.
Week 11 CFP Rankings
1 of 7
1. Ohio State
2. Georgia
3. Michigan
4. Florida State
5. Washington
6. Oregon
7. Texas
8. Alabama
9. Ole Miss
10. Penn State
11. Louisville
12. Oregon State
13. Tennessee
14. Missouri
15. Oklahoma State
16. Kansas
17. Oklahoma
18. Utah
19. LSU
20. Notre Dame
21. Arizona
22. Iowa
23. Tulane
24. North Carolina
25. Kansas State
Group of 5 Matchups
2 of 7
Myrtle Beach (Dec. 16): Western Kentucky vs. Georgia State
New Orleans (Dec. 16): Liberty vs. James Madison
Cure (Dec. 16): South Florida vs. Coastal Carolina
New Mexico (Dec. 16): Bowling Green vs. Wyoming
Bahamas (Dec. 18): Appalachian State vs. Eastern Michigan
Frisco (Dec. 19): New Mexico State vs. Texas State
Boca Raton (Dec. 21): Jacksonville State vs. Georgia Southern
Camellia (Dec. 23): Ohio vs. South Alabama
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl (Dec. 23): Miami (OH) vs. Utah State
68 Ventures (Dec. 23): Central Michigan vs. Arkansas State
Hawaii (Dec. 23): UTSA vs. Fresno State
Arizona (Dec. 30): Northern Illinois vs. Boise State
Stock Up: Appalachian State Mountaineers
App State quietly scored a huge win in Week 10, defeating Marshall in a battle of 4-4 teams. Although the Mountaineers' remaining slate is brutal—Georgia State, James Madison and Georgia Southern each have six-plus victories—just one triumph will be enough for bowl eligibility.
Stock Down: South Alabama Jaguars
Staying in the Sun Belt, South Alabama found itself on the wrong end of a 28-10 defeat at Troy. As a result, the Jaguars are 4-5 with Arkansas State, Marshall and Texas State left to play. South Alabama hosts the first two games, so these next two weeks are especially critical for the program's hopes of a second straight bowl bid.
Group of 5 vs. Power 5
3 of 7
LA (Dec. 16): Air Force vs. UCLA
Gasparilla (Dec. 22): Louisiana vs. Mississippi State
Birmingham (Dec. 23): Troy vs. Illinois
Armed Forces (Dec. 23): UNLV vs. Iowa State
Quick Lane (Dec. 26): Toledo vs. Minnesota
First Responder (Dec. 26): Rice vs. BYU
Military (Dec. 27): Memphis vs. Virginia Tech
Fenway (Dec. 28): SMU vs. Syracuse
Stock Up: Illinois Fighting Illini
I'll label it an uncomfortable rise, but Illinois is back in the picture. Backup quarterback John Paddock threw a last-minute touchdown that propelled the Fighting Illini to a 27-26 win at Minnesota. Illinois, 4-5, closes the regular season with Indiana at home, Iowa on the road and Northwestern at home. There's a clear, narrow path to six wins for the Illini.
Stock Down: Air Force Falcons
Well, that was fun while it lasted. Air Force held an 8-0 record with a very manageable slate to play. Unfortunately for the Falcons, a disastrous six-turnover day against Army ruined the perfect season. Air Force is still unbeaten in the Mountain West, but that's a tough loss for the resume in regard to a possible New Year's Six bowl.
Power 5 Matchups, Part I
4 of 7
Independence (Dec. 16): UCF vs. Washington State
Las Vegas (Dec. 23): Wisconsin vs. Arizona
Guaranteed Rate (Dec. 26): Nebraska vs. West Virginia
Mayo (Dec. 27): North Carolina State vs. Kentucky
Holiday (Dec. 27): Duke vs. USC
Texas (Dec. 27): Kansas vs. Texas A&M
Pinstripe (Dec. 28): Miami vs. Rutgers
Pop-Tarts (Dec. 28): North Carolina vs. Oklahoma
Alamo (Dec. 28): Oklahoma State vs. Utah
Stock Up: Arizona Wildcats
Few teams are hotter than Arizona, which has followed close losses to Washington and USC with three straight Top 25 wins. After shellacking Washington State, the Wildcats have clipped Oregon State and rolled UCLA to reach 6-3. Given a remaining schedule of Colorado, Utah and Arizona State, the 'Cats have strong eight-win potential.
Stock Down: Oklahoma Sooners
Kansas landed a heavy punch to Oklahoma's dreams of a College Football Playoff trip, and Oklahoma State threw a haymaker. Suddenly, the 7-0 Sooners are 7-2 and on the outside of the Big 12 Championship Game picture. Since the conference standings are a lovely mess, there's a chance OU isn't done yet. But the potential for a New Year's Six bowl, as previously projected, is much slimmer.
Power 5 Matchups, Part II
5 of 7
Gator (Dec. 29): Clemson vs. Missouri
Sun (Dec. 29): Boston College vs. Oregon State
Liberty (Dec. 29): Kansas State vs. Florida
Music City (Dec. 30): Maryland vs. Auburn
ReliaQuest (Jan. 1): Notre Dame vs. LSU
Citrus (Jan. 1): Iowa vs. Tennessee
Stock Up: Boston College Eagles
Good for BC, seriously. Fourth-year coach Jeff Hafley entered the season on a hot-ish seat, and an opening loss to Northern Illinois—along with a 1-3 start overall—made it sizzle quickly. Since then, though, the Eagles have toppled Virginia, Army, Georgia Tech, UConn and Syracuse to lock in bowl eligibility.
Stock Down: Florida Gators
Speaking of hot seats, Billy Napier's cushion is toasty. And it might not get comfortable anytime soon. Georgia wrecked Florida two weeks ago, and Arkansas upset the Gators in Gainesville this weekend. What looked like an acceptable 5-2 record could plummet to 5-7 with LSU, Missouri and Florida State on the docket. I have a suspicion UF steals one, but it better not need a win against FSU.
Non-CFP New Year's Six Games
6 of 7
Cotton Bowl (Dec. 29): Texas vs. Ole Miss
Peach Bowl (Dec. 30): Alabama vs. Tulane
Orange Bowl (Dec. 30): Louisville vs. Ohio State
Fiesta Bowl (Jan. 1): Penn State vs. Oregon
Stock Up: Ole Miss Rebels
Zxavian Harris blocked a Texas A&M field goal as time expired to save Ole Miss' intriguing resume. Even if the Rebels fall on the road at Georgia this weekend, they'll be among the highest-ranked—if not the top—two-loss teams in the country. That could be enough for a New Year's Six invite.
Stock Up: Tulane Green Wave
Rather than unfairly pin a program, how about a second positive team? In the initial CFP poll, Tulane held the best ranking (24th) for a Group of Five program. It escaped a rough game at East Carolina on Saturday, and then-undefeated Air Force fell to Army. Tulane is locked in as the G5's front-runner for a New Year's Six game, although the race for that coveted spot is far from over.
College Football Playoff
7 of 7
Rose Bowl (Jan. 1): Michigan (2) vs. Washington (3)
Sugar Bowl (Jan. 1): Georgia (1) vs. Florida State (4)
National Championship (Jan. 8): Georgia vs. Michigan
Georgia kicked off its challenging month with a 30-21 victory over Missouri on Saturday. This weekend, the Dawgs host Ole Miss with a chance to clinch the SEC East.
Meanwhile, the difficult portion of Michigan's slate has finally arrived and begins with a trip to Penn State. Washington, which needs two wins in the next three weeks to make the Pac-12 Championship Game, is set for a showdown with Utah.
Florida State has sealed a spot in the ACC title game and should be heavy favorites over Miami, North Alabama and Florida to close the season.
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