Bowl Projections 2023-24: Predictions for CFP, New Year's Six After Week 11 AP Poll

Five undefeated teams and six one-loss programs can carve out paths to the College Football Playoff entering Week 11.

Some of those playoff aspirations are more realistic than others.

For example, the Georgia Bulldogs, Florida State Seminoles, Washington Huskies and the Big Ten champion all own clear paths to the four-team playoff.

Other playoff hopefuls, like the Louisville Cardinals and Ole Miss Rebels, need to win out and receive some help from around the country to push close to the top four.

The minimum requirement for Louisville, Ole Miss and others between No. 6 and No. 11 is to reach a New Years' Six bowl game.

The six one-loss teams are in good shape to qualify for the NY6, as is the best Group of Five team, which after Week 10, is the Tulane Green Wave.

Week 11 AP Top 25

Gregory Shamus/Getty Images

ANN ARBOR, MICHIGAN - NOVEMBER 04: J.J. McCarthy #9 of the Michigan Wolverines throws a second half pass while playing the Purdue Boilermakers at Michigan Stadium on November 04, 2023 in Ann Arbor, Michigan. Michigan won the game 41-13. (Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)

1. Georgia (9-0)

2. Michigan (9-0)

3. Ohio State (9-0)

4. Florida State (9-0)

5. Washington (9-0)

6. Oregon (8-1)

7. Texas (8-1)

8. Alabama (8-1)

9. Penn State (8-1)

10. Ole Miss (8-1)

11. Louisville (8-1)

12. Oregon State (7-2)

13. Utah (7-2)

14. Tennessee (7-2)

15. Oklahoma State (7-2)

16. Missouri (7-2)

17. Oklahoma (7-2)

18. LSU (6-3)

19. Kansas (7-2)

20. Tulane (8-1)

21. James Madison (9-0)

22. Notre Dame (7-3)

23. Arizona (6-3)

24. North Carolina (7-2)

25. Liberty (9-0)

Bowl Projections

Rich Schultz/Getty Images

PISCATAWAY, NEW JERSEY - NOVEMBER 4: Running back TreVeyon Henderson #32 of the Ohio State Buckeyes in action against the Rutgers Scarlet Knights during a college football game at SHI Stadium on November 4, 2023 in Piscataway, New Jersey. (Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images)

College Football Playoff

Rose Bowl (January 1): No. 2 Michigan vs. No. 3 Florida State

Sugar Bowl (January 1): No .1 Georgia vs. No. 4 Washington

New Years' Six

Cotton Bowl (December 29): Alabama vs. Texas

Peach Bowl (December 30): Ole Miss vs. Penn State

Orange Bowl (December 30): Louisville vs. Ohio State

Fiesta Bowl (January 1): Oregon vs. Tulane

The easy playoff math features the Georgia Bulldogs, Florida State Seminoles and Washington Huskies as undefeated conference winners.

They would hypothetically be joined by the winner of the Ohio State Buckeyes-Michigan Wolverines clash in the two semifinals.

That scenario will become even more real after Week 11 if Michigan beats the Penn State Nittany Lions, who already lost to Ohio State. Penn State would still be in line for a NY6 berth with a loss because of who it fell to.

Georgia's home clash with the Ole Miss Rebels is the other massive game that will affect the playoff discussion on Saturday.

The Bulldogs survived a threat from the Missouri Tigers at home in Week 10. They will be expected to win at home over Lane Kiffin's side, who could join Penn State in the category of best two-loss teams contending for the NY6.

Florida State, Ohio State and Washington are all expected to win at home in Week 11 to keep their respective positions in the top five. All of those teams would benefit from a Michigan loss at Beaver Stadium. That would leave four undefeated power-conference teams in the top four.

Tulane is the clear favorite to fill out the NY6 field as the best Group of Five team. The Green Wave are six spots ahead of the Liberty Flames in the AP poll. The James Madison Dukes are not eligible for a NY6 game as part of their transition from FCS to the FBS.