Quick Fixes for NBA's Roughest Starts
To invoke an old cliché, the NBA season is more marathon than sprint. But that doesn't make it any easier to bear when your favorite team face-plants seconds after the starting gun goes off.
Here, we'll focus on teams that have gotten off to starts that fall short of expectations. We're excluding clubs like the Washington Wizards and Charlotte Hornets, which entered the season with relatively low ceilings. In addition to isolating the one issue (often among many) most responsible for these teams' early stumbles, we'll also offer potential solutions.
We're trafficking in small samples. It's early enough for one blowout win to totally reorient a team's season. But we've taken care to shine the spotlight on squads whose early issues feel like more than random noise.
The race is far from over, but a handful of teams are already lagging behind in concerning ways. Let's see if we can help them catch up.
Memphis Grizzlies: Get out on the Break
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The Memphis Grizzlies are the only team without a win in 2023-24, making them the easy choice for the (dis)honor of being named this season's most disappointing team. Even if you were convinced that the combined absences of Ja Morant (suspension) and Steven Adams (knee injury) would tank Memphis' offense, you probably didn't envision things going quite this poorly.
The Grizzlies are struggling to score, currently posting a 102.9 offensive rating that ranks last in the league. Their 113-106 loss to the Washington Wizards on Oct. 28 was proof something was seriously wrong. The Wizards surrendered 143 points to the Indiana Pacers in their opener and project to finish in the bottom five on D...and the Grizzlies couldn't crack them.
There are some encouraging signs from a process perspective. Memphis is generating wide-open threes at a top-five clip and are basically ignoring mid-range opportunities. Unfortunately, they're not getting to the rim much at all and have been ice cold from distance except for the corners.
The fix: Memphis needs to run.
Though the Grizzlies aren't blowing the doors off in transition, they rank higher in scoring efficiency on the break than they do in halfcourt sets. Though Morant's absence means Memphis lacks its turbo button, it's still worth pushing the pace, because with or without Morant, the Grizzlies have always struggled to get buckets against a set defense. They haven't ranked higher than 22nd in half-court offense since 2016-17.
With no starting-caliber point guard to break down the defense and no hulking center to dominate the offensive glass, Memphis isn't going to survive if it can't score on the run.
Houston Rockets: Shift Offensive Responsibilities
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At the risk of oversimplification, the Houston Rockets need more Alperen Şengün and less Jalen Green. As a long-term strategy, that's a dicey proposition. Green still projects as Houston's star-upside leading scorer. But the early returns this season underscore what we've known for a while now, which is to say offensive possessions that involve Şengün making important decisions and/or shooting the ball himself produce better results than the ones where Green is doing the same.
Şengün is putting up a team-high 19.3 points and 6.0 assists per game while shooting 58.9 percent from the field and getting to the foul line 3.8 times per contest. In contrast, Green is posting 19.0 points per game, has more turnovers than assists and is shooting just 39.4 percent from the field.
Green can close the gap by holstering his mid-range game and putting up a few more threes. It's also encouraging that he's taking 41.0 percent of his shots at the rim, a high rate for a wing. Nonetheless, Green's delayed processing as a passer and penchant for taking tough two-point jumpers are real issues.
It's early, and the Rockets probably don't want to tinker with Green's confidence by scaling back his role. But Şengün is so much more efficient and productive that they may not have a choice if this goes on much longer.
At least there's not much further to fall. Houston has just one win in its first four games.
Chicago Bulls: Blow It Up
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The Chicago Bulls have more wins (two) than players-only meetings (one), but the margin is a little too close for comfort.
Head coach Billy Donovan was excused from the locker room following Chicago's 124-104 opening-night loss to the Oklahoma City Thunder as the players hashed out issues with the offense. You know, totally normal behavior 48 minutes into a season.
If not for Alex Caruso's strip of Pascal Siakam and game-winning three on the ensuing breakaway, the Bulls' only victory would be an ugly, brick-riddled escape on the road against Indiana.
The issues here aren't new, and that's part of the problem. Chicago returned virtually all of last year's core outside of replacing Patrick Beverley with Jevon Carter. That move, while arguably an upgrade, didn't alleviate the staleness that is the root of the Bulls' struggles. This team has proved itself to be roughly a .500 outfit, despite significant offensive talent, and it's not a surprise that multiple years occupying that rung of the NBA's competitive ladder is wearing on the players.
These are supposed to be quick fixes, and teardowns tend to take a while. Nonetheless, Chicago must at least decide quickly on its next steps. The correct course would be to initiate a rebuild by trading Zach LaVine, DeMar DeRozan, Nikola Vučević by this year's deadline. At least two of those pieces will return significant positive value, but the real gains will stem from the front office admitting to fans and the viewing public that, yes, they understand this core has gone as far as it can go.
Miami Heat: Get to the Basket Once in a While
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Despite a dearth of layups in their diet, the Miami Heat have sustained themselves just fine on offense for several years in a row. They've gone at least as far as the conference finals in three of the past four seasons while ranking 27th or worse in rim-attempt frequency three times during that span.
The issue this season, in which they rank 28th in that stat, is the lack of other math-boosting shot preferences. For example, the Heat were No. 3 in corner three attempt rate last year but have fallen all the way to 26th in 2023-24.
Some of this is personnel-based and therefore harder to fix. Jimmy Butler and Tyler Herro aren't slashers that get to the bucket at will. They operate on the perimeter and in the mid-range area. Bam Adebayo hasn't ranked below the 96th percentile in mid-range frequency since 2019-20, and he's currently shooting at point-blank range less often than ever.
If Miami is going to overcome the talent drain it suffered in free agency by losing Gabe Vincent and Max Strus, and if it hopes to offset what's been an uncharacteristically shaky defense, it must generate more looks at the rim. Options include more five-out lineups that open driving lanes, a renewed emphasis on pushing the pace and, most simply, a clear intention to attack the cup.
The Heat were supposed to tilt toward offense with Duncan Robinson and Herro logging many of the minutes vacated by Strus and Vincent. They can still do that if they focus on getting downhill.
Toronto Raptors: Trust a Non-Shooting Offensive Hub
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The Toronto Raptors are doing so much wrong on offense that it's difficult to pinpoint just one trouble spot in need of a fix. Though clunky and mostly ineffective in half-court sets since collecting that 2019 championship, Toronto managed to eke out roughly league-average scoring rates over the past four years by getting out in transition and taking care of the ball.
Turnovers are up dramatically this season, a predictable result of Fred VanVleet's departure, and the entire offensive operation has been a mess from the jump.
Center Jakob Poeltl cited some of the issues in his candid comments to Sportsnet's Michael Grange:
The obvious solution is to wait, emphasize selfless play and hope new head coach Darko Rjaković's decisive, "0.5 offense" takes hold eventually. Then again, this same personnel had a hard time generating flow and movement on offense when Nick Nurse was in charge. Coaching may not be the issue.
For now, it might be best to spam elbow touches for Poeltl, cycling cutters around him in ways that prevent hero-ball tendencies from taking over. It may be impossible to teach Pascal Siakam, OG Anunoby and Scottie Barnes how to give the ball up, move and trust they'll get it back. So forcing action through a center who'd rather not shoot could ironically be the best way forward.
Stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference and Cleaning the Glass. Accurate through games played Nov. 1. Salary info via Spotrac.
Grant Hughes covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter (@gt_hughes), and subscribe to the Hardwood Knocks podcast, where he appears with Bleacher Report's Dan Favale.
