10 Trade Predictions for 2023-24 NBA Season
In the infancy of an NBA season, everything feels possible.
Up to and including all kinds of activity on the trade market.
This point on the hoops calendar is a prognosticator's dream, and your predictions can travel just about any direction you want.
Our aim here, though, is to remain within the realm of possibility—but not be boring. So, let's break out the crystal ball and see what it thinks could be in store during this new campaign.
Bulls Won't Tear It Down (But Obviously Should)
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Logic might lead you to believe it's tear-down time in Chicago, but it's not like that's some novel concept.
The Bulls have played sub-.500 hoops since losing Lonzo Ball to a knee injury in Jan. 2022. Does anyone actually think Jevon Carter and Torrey Craig are the kind of additions capable of breaking this club free from mediocrity's tight grip?
Yes, actually. Not us, but the summer signings by this front office showed a clear and continued commitment to this roster.
"I believe in them," executive vice president Artūras Karnišovas told reporters. "I have faith in them going into this season. We'll see how the season plays out."
If the Bulls weren't ready to pull the plug on this nucleus before, why would this season be any different?
They have enough to talent to not be bottom-out bad. So, as long as they don't fall out of the play-in tournament race by the trade deadline—which is hard to do without transparent tanking—Chicago will again ignore the external calls for a roster demolition and keep following the lead of Zach LaVine, DeMar DeRozan and Nikola Vučević.
Jerami Grant Gets Moved
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On the first night of free agency, the Blazers rewarded Jerami Grant with a new five-year, $160 million deal. Less than 24 hours later, Damian Lillard requested a trade out of Portland.
Grant has appeared out of place in the Pacific Northwest ever since. You can debate whether he's worth this much in a vacuum, but he almost certainly isn't worth this kind of coin as a 29-year-old non-star on a long-term rebuilder.
While generally productive when he plays (19-plus points per game each of the past three seasons), he doesn't necessarily make the game any easier for his teammates. He has never been a playmaker (career 1.5 assists against 1.2 turnovers) or the kind of high-caliber scorer who commands the constant attention of opposing defenses.
So, beyond any veteran wisdom he can share, it's hard to tell how he can help out the Blazers' up-and-comers, such as Scoot Henderson and Shaedon Sharpe.
What could help them, though, are whatever long-term assets Grant could bring back in a trade. His value won't be tremendous on this contract (which has a $36.4 million player option on his age-33 season), but a forward-needy, win-now shopper may think his acquisition is worth the sacrifice of at least one future first-round pick or a potential-rich prospect.
Hornets Deal Gordon Hayward to Embrace the Tank
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If LaMelo Ball stays healthy, and No. 2 pick Brandon Miller hits the ground running, the Hornets could push for a .500 record and a play-in tournament invite. That's about as high as Charlotte's ceiling can reach, though, which should be reason enough for this front office to shop its win-now talent in hopes of creating a better tomorrow.
The Hornets are assembling an interesting core of young players—Mark Williams, P.J. Washington, Nick Smith Jr.—but they need to keep expanding it. At some point sooner than later, that should take priority over maximizing this season's win total.
Charlotte owes a lottery-protected pick to the San Antonio Spurs, but if it doesn't convey in 2024 or 2025, it will instead convert to a pair of second-round picks. There is some incentive, then, for the Hornets to tap out of the play-in race, as a lottery pick could mean loads more to this organization than a first-round playoff cameo would.
An everything-must-go type of liquidation isn't required, but dealing Gordon Hayward on the final season of his contract seems like a no-brainer. Depending on what the market offers, it could make sense to swap out Terry Rozier, too.
James Harden Goes to Hollywood
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The Sixers' relationship with James Harden is broken beyond repair. And those aren't our words; they're his.
When the 34-year-old first no-showed at a mid-October practice, ESPN's Ramona Shelburne reported that was "only the beginning" of what he had in mind to force his way out of Philadelphia.
The Sixers are going to trade him. It might be another week or another few months, but it'll happen at some point between now and the trade deadline. And when it does, his wish of joining the Los Angeles Clippers will finally be granted.
It's hard to say which club will crack first when it comes to Terance Mann, who appears to be the sticking point in trade talks, per The Athletic's Sam Amick. Either the Clippers will conclude their need for Harden outweighs their desire to keep Mann, or the Sixers will eventually accept that even a Mann-less offer from L.A. is the best they can do.
Something will give in the end, though, since Harden's days in Philly appear done, and no other realistic suitor has surfaced yet.
Joel Embiid Stays Put, but He's Talked About in Trades
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All due respect to Harden, a 10-time All-Star and former MVP who just paced the league in assists, but he isn't the reason the hoops world is keeping such a close watch on his situation. Rather, all eyes are on Philadelphia to see how reigning MVP Joel Embiid reacts whenever there's a resolution.
He has seen former co-stars like Jimmy Butler and Ben Simmons come and go. Embiid also has to know his clock is ticking to lead a championship charge, as he's a 29-year-old 7-footer with a laundry list of injuries in his past. He could steer the right squad to a title run, but will the post-Harden Sixers be that team?
Even Embiid doesn't sound sure, which might be why we're hearing rumblings about his future already. While we don't know when or if Philly would entertain trade talks for its star center, we do know, thanks to Keith Pompey of the Philadelphia Inquirer, what the New York Knicks would give up to get him:
These rumblings won't go away, especially if it's obvious the Sixers can't crack the NBA's inner circle of contenders. It still feels highly unlikely Philly will even entertain Embiid talks, but no one should be surprised if his name makes regular appearances on the rumor mill.
Spurs Seek Win-Now Talent at Trade Deadline
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External expectations aren't exactly enormous for the Spurs, and if they prove prescient, this club can keep on the slow-and-steady plan to eventually construct a contender around No. 1 pick—and All-Galaxy prospect—Victor Wembanyama.
But what happens if this young core is much more closer to competitive than it appears?
Wembanyama could push for an All-Defensive spot already. Point-forward Jeremy Sochan should be a two-way playmaker. Maybe Devin Vassell has a leap year in him. Maybe Malaki Branham does, too. Talent isn't an issue, and with Gregg Popovich still pacing the sidelines, neither is coaching.
Would it surprise anyone if this team is at least in the play-in chase come February? That's what our crystal ball thinks will be in the works, hence why these Spurs will be buying—probably shot-creation, scoring or, if they really want to splurge, maybe a combination of the two—this trade season.
Toronto Trades at Least One Starting Forward
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Last season, the Raptors got 66-plus games and better than 32 minutes a night out of their top five rotation players. They also lost as many games as they won (41 apiece) and were knocked out of the play-in tournament by the perpetually mediocre Chicago Bulls.
Nothing that happened this summer is likely to change Toronto's fate in a good way. Not for this season, at least.
Losing Fred VanVleet and replacing him with Dennis Schröder is a clear downgrade. The same is probably true—again, for the present at least—of changing coaches from Nick Nurse (a champion in 2018-19 and Coach of the Year in 2019-20) to Darko Rajaković (a first-time head coach at this level).
While you'd hope lottery pick Gradey Dick can scratch a longstanding itch for shooting, he is not at all guaranteed to log major minutes.
It's tough to picture Toronto clawing out of the Eastern Conference's midsection and far easier to see this team slipping out of that range. And that means this could (and arguably should) be a busy trade season, since Pascal Siakam and Gary Trent Jr. are on the final seasons of their contract, while O.G. Anunoby will only have a player option left on his.
This should be a sellers' market, making the potential return for one (or both) of Siakam and Anunoby too great for the front office to pass up.
Mavericks Snag a Starting Center
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The Mavericks have championship aspirations and major question marks at the center spot. Why does that sound familiar?
Oh yeah, it's because the 5 spot has been an issue ever since they let Tyson Chandler walk in free agency following their 2011 championship run. And while they hope they've found Chandler 2.0 in No. 12 pick Dereck Lively II, you won't find many rookies anchoring the interior on title teams.
Lively looks the part of an NBA rim-runner, but he didn't exactly light it up during his lone season at Duke (5.4 rebounds and 5.2 points in 20.6 minutes). If he isn't ready to handle a substantial role, Dallas can't afford to wait on his development. Not with the championship clock already ticking on the Luka Dončić-Kyrie Irving combo.
Pistons Flip Bojan Bogdanović for Multiple Firsts
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The Detroit Pistons are set to spend (at least) the first four weeks of this season without veteran scoring forward Bojan Bogdanović (calf strain). That should be just enough time for the front office to learn that this roster isn't close to competing at a high level and should therefore prioritize its future any way possible.
Assuming the injury doesn't linger beyond that, though, Bogdanović should have enough time to establish significant value ahead of the trade deadline. Any win-now shopper in need of more offensive juice would give him a look.
The 34-year-old is quietly one of the more efficient and consistent scorers you'll find, having averaged 18.8 points on 46.6/40.4/86.5 shooting over the past five seasons combined.
He isn't quite a difference-maker, but he might look like one in this trade market. With the play-in tournament offering additional paths to the postseason, there won't be more than a handful of teams who deem themselves out of the race when the trade deadline arrives. Conversely, there could be a host of clubs aiming for an upgrade to increase their chances of snagging a playoff spot.
That potential of a limited supply and a massive demand should be all Detroit needs to know it's time to move on from Bogdanović. The Pistons could fetch multiple first-rounders for the Croatian swingman, which would make this a no-brainer.
Knicks Shoot Their Shot with Karl-Anthony Towns
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The New York Knicks have a good roster, but they also have the knowledge that if they want to win a title, then good isn't good enough. They need a high-end star to raise their ceiling into championship contention, and they reportedly have a few ideas of who could make that ascension happen.
According to Stefan Bondy of the New York Post, the Knicks "are monitoring" reigning MVP Joel Embiid, Cleveland Cavaliers All-Star guard Donovan Mitchell and Minnesota Timberwolves big man Karl-Anthony Towns.
New York can go ahead and scratch Embiid off the list. While there's a non-zero chance he could request a trade away from the Philadelphia 76ers depending on how James Harden's situation plays out, the Knicks don't have enough to get him. Mitchell feels like a long shot, too, as the Cavaliers are aiming to improve upon last season's 51 wins.
Towns, though, could emerge as a realistic trade candidate. The Timberwolves weren't great last season (42 wins) and may not be great again with the same nucleus still intact. They also need to replenish their asset collection after coughing up an absurd amount for Rudy Gobert last summer.
The Knicks could have a chance to make their sales pitch for Towns, a former client of team president Leon Rose. It's too early to tell if the Timberwolves will be receptive to that offer, but communication will be had.
Statistics courtesy of Basketball Reference and NBA.com.
Zach Buckley covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter, @ZachBuckleyNBA.
