College Football Odds Week 9: Early Locks and Best Bets on the Schedule
The Penn State Nittany Lions are experts at beating teams beneath them in the Big Ten standings.
Penn State owns an average margin of victory of 25.3 points in conference play. It can be even more vicious off a defeat.
James Franklin's team outscored two opponents 90-31 after its losses to the Michigan Wolverines and Ohio State Buckeyes in 2022.
The Indiana Hoosiers were on the wrong end of one of those post-loss blowouts, and they could be in line for another massive loss in Week 9.
Indiana lost by at least 17 points in all of its four Big Ten games and its combined margin of defeat against Michigan and Ohio State was 65 points.
Penn State is one of a few high-profile teams in need of a bounce-back win on Saturday. The USC Trojans are even more desperate to get back on track. A trip to face the California Golden Bears could end up as the perfect fix to the Trojans' struggles.
Indiana at No. 10 Penn State (-31)
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For the latest lines on these games, go to DraftKings.
Saturday, Noon ET, CBS
At least Penn State has been consistent during Franklin's tenure.
The Nittany Lions struggled to beat Ohio State and Michigan and have had few issues with the rest of the Big Ten East.
A year ago, Penn State recorded an average margin of victory of 31.25 points in its four wins over Big Ten East foes. Indiana suffered a 31-point defeat at the hands of the Nittany Lions, which came the week after PSU's loss to Ohio State.
Penn State outscored the Hoosiers 69-14 in the last two years since the Hoosiers upset the Nittany Lions in the 2020 season opener behind then-quarterback Michael Penix Jr.
Indiana fell on hard times in the years since that upset, and it is now viewed as one of the easiest opponents for the top Big Ten teams.
The Hoosiers opened the season with a 20-point defeat to Ohio State and fell 52-7 to Michigan on October 14.
Indiana can't keep up with the elite Big Ten programs, and that should be on display once again inside Beaver Stadium.
Franklin at least knows how to rally his team after a loss, and this time around, his team has more motivation to get back on track since it can still be a player in the College Football Playoff with a win over Michigan at home on November 11.
No. 24 USC (-9) at California
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Saturday, 4 p.m. ET, Pac-12 Network
USC may be out of sight and mind of most college football bettors after its consecutive losses to the Notre Dame Fighting Irish and Utah Utes.
The Trojans will actually be out of sight for some people who do not have the Pac-12 Network, or care to watch Caleb Williams and Co. during Saturday's mid-afternoon slate.
USC should love the appearance of the Cal defense. The Golden Bears allowed over 50 points to the Oregon State Beavers and Washington Huskies and gave up 34 points to a injury-riddled Utah offense.
Williams and his plethora of talented wide receivers could feast on the defense that allows 393.4 total yards per game.
Of course, the trouble with USC is its own defense, which conceded at least 20 points in each of the last five games.
USC still has a Heisman Trophy winner at quarterback, and its defense would need only one or two stops to cover the 9.5-point spread.
The Trojans can't get back into the playoff conversation, like Penn State can, but they could play the role of spoiler against three Top 25 teams in November. They must regain some confidence against Cal for that to be a possibility.
Houston at Kansas State (-17)
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Saturday, Noon ET, ESPN2
The Kansas State Wildcats are on the exact opposite trajectory as Penn State and USC.
K-State trampled the TCU Horned Frogs at home in Week 8 to move to 3-1 in the Big 12.
A winning run over the next month is significant for the Wildcats because they could play their way into the Big 12 Championship Game. The Texas Longhorns might be vulnerable without the injured Quinn Ewers and the Oklahoma Sooners could be susceptible to a loss or two if they continue to put away opponents.
Chris Klieman's team should take care of the Houston Cougars at home on Saturday. Houston was competitive against Texas last week, but it has some rough performances on its first-year Big 12 resume.
Houston fell by 23 points to TCU and by 21 points in a loss to the Texas Tech Red Raiders to kick off its Big 12 schedule.
All three of K-State's in-conference wins came by double digits. Saturday's win over TCU proved how strong the Wildcats can be on both sides of the ball.
The Wildcats can contain a Houston offense that averages 407.9 total yards per game, and their offense should take advantage of a Cougars defense that has been gashed for 419.3 total yards per contest.
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