NFL Picks Week 4 Best Early Player Props to Bet Before Odds Shift
The 2023 NFL season continues to be one of the more surprising campaigns in recent memory. The Minnesota Vikings are winless, the Arizona Cardinals just humbled the Dallas Cowboys as double-digit underdogs, and the Miami Dolphins put 70 points on the scoreboard.
Things have been just as unpredictable on an individual level. Raheem Mostert leads the league in touchdowns, Kenny Pickett owns the season's longest touchdown pass, and Sam Howell and Desmond Ridder are tied for the most game-winning drives.
It's becoming harder than ever to predict how players will perform in any given matchup, but that's no reason to stop trying.
Below, we'll sort through the Week 3 results and the looming Week 4 matchups to identify some of our favorite props to consider backing before the weekend.
Find all the props for this week's games at DraftKings.
Jordan Love over 16.5 Rushing Yards
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The Green Bay Packers will host the Detroit Lions on Thursday to kick off Week 4.
It's a pivotal matchup between two 2-1 squads, and fans should expect Jordan Love to be the centerpiece of the Packers offense.
Green Bay is widely expected to have star running back Aaron Jones in the lineup following two missed weeks with a hamstring injury. However, the Packers may be forced to lean away from a traditional ground game against Detroit.
The Lions rank fifth in both rushing yards allowed and yards per carry surrendered.
Expect the Packers to instead rely heavily on the pass, which will give Love a few scrambling opportunities. Green Bay may even try augmenting the ground game with a few designed quarterback runs.
Love has rushed for at least 23 yards in each of the past two games. He should reach 17 yards on Thursday, and he's -125 (bet $125 to win $100) to do so.
James Cook over 54.5 Rushing Yards
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The Buffalo Bills will have their own marquee matchup when they face the Miami Dolphins on Sunday. Even with the league's second-ranked defense, Buffalo shouldn't go into this one looking for a quarterback duel.
Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins are carving up opponents at a dizzying pace—if you haven't heard, they put up 70 points in Week 3. If the Bills opt for a track meet and Josh Allen starts to press, the mistake-prone play we saw in Week 1 is likely to return.
Instead, the Bills should look to control the tempo with the ground game, and that should mean a lot of opportunities for running back James Cook.
The 24-year-old has established himself as Buffalo's lead back by a wide margin. He's already logged 44 carries this season, while Latavius Murray and Damien Harris have combined for 26.
Add in the fact that Miami has struggled against the run—24th in yards allowed, 25th in yards per carry allowed—and the Georgia product feels like a near-lock to reach 55 yards—a mark he's reached in each of the past two weeks.
Cook is -115 to top the line on this prop.
Evan Engram over 47.5 Receiving Yards
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The Jacksonville Jaguars haven't played particularly well this season, and they're well aware of it.
"It's not all right. We all have to look in the mirror, take accountability, take that and own it and move on," quarterback Trevor Lawrence told reporters.
Expect the 2021 No. 1 pick and the Jaguars to settle down a bit and focus on what's been working this Sunday against the Atlanta Falcons in London. The quarterback's connection with Evan Engram has been working.
The tight end has caught at least five passes in every game this season and produced no fewer than 49 receiving yards. Atlanta does have the league's fourth-ranked pass defense—which is probably why the over/under for this prop is so low—but it hasn't been especially strong against TEs.
Lions tight end Sam LaPorta had 84 yards in Week 3, while Hayden Hurst had 41 yards for the Carolina Panthers in Week 1.
Engram is -115 to hit the over here, and it would be a surprise if he doesn't.
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Ceedee Lamb Under 69.5 Receiving Yards
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Dallas Cowboys wide receiver CeeDee Lamb was held to only 53 receiving yards in Week 3 after averaging 110 yards over the first two weeks.
Expect him to fall short of 70 receiving yards this week (--115), and this isn't a knee-jerk reaction to Dallas' sloppy play last Sunday.
The Cowboys committed 13 penalties during their upset loss to the Arizona Cardinals. They're highly unlikely to be so mistake-prone again, but they'll also be facing a stout New England Patriots defense ranked fifth in passing yards allowed.
Patriots head coach Bill Belichick has traditionally focused on taking away an opponent's biggest threat, and he's been successful this season. New England held speedster Tyreek Hill to only 40 yards in Week 2 and limited Garrett Wilson to 48 yards this past week.
Lamb should draw the Patriots' focus in Week 4, and that will likely mean a lot of double coverage and a heavy dose of rookie first-round pick Christian Gonzalez.
Expect the Cowboys to take a different approach to attacking the Patriots defense and for Lamb to have an underwhelming day.
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