Buy or Sell Every NBA Lottery Team Improving In 2023-24
For the 14 NBA teams who missed the playoffs last season, 2023-24 will certainly be better, right?
For most, yes. The combination of rebuilding teams gaining experience and adding pieces through the draft, free agency and trades is enough to inflate the win total from last season.
For others who are pivoting to a rebuild, are on the cusp of trading a star or lost talent in free agency, the new year could actually be worse, only extending a playoff drought.
This is the direction every lottery team is headed towards this season.
Charlotte Hornets
1 of 14
2022-23 Record: 27-55
Reasons to Buy
No one's going to pick the Hornets to win the East this season, but clearing their 27-win mark from last year should be relatively easy.
This is a squad that won 43 games in 2021-22 with a healthy LaMelo Ball and Miles Bridges on the roster. Ball was limited to just 36 games last season due to injuries, and Bridges signed a one-year, $7.9 million deal after not playing in 2022-23 following a domestic violence incident. He still has 10 games remaining on a 30-game suspension to serve.
Charlotte added Brandon Miller with the No. 2 overall pick and should see a second-year leap from promising young center Mark Williams. There's enough veteran help on this roster (Terry Rozier, Gordon Hayward, P.J. Washington) to keep the Hornets in the playoff hunt as well.
Reasons to Sell
The only thing that could keep Charlotte under 27 wins is the health of Ball, who battled ankle injuries all last year. An offense that ranked last in 2022-23 needs him to fuel their attack.
This is one of the easiest "buys" of any lottery team, as the Hornets should, hopefully, have only suffered a temporary setback last season.
Result: Buy
Chicago Bulls
2 of 14
2022-23 Record: 40-42
Reasons to Buy
On paper, the Bulls should be better.
The team added some useful veterans in Jevon Carter and Torrey Craig, re-signed Nikola Vučević, Coby White and Ayo Dosunmu and has Zach LaVine and DeMar DeRozan returning.
A fourth-year leap from Patrick Williams would certainly help push the Bulls back into the postseason, although we've yet to see evidence of that happening. Dalen Terry, the 18th overall pick in 2022, developing into a rotation player would be nice as well.
Reasons to Sell
Lonzo Ball is going to miss another full season and the Bulls still have done nothing to solidify the point guard position in his absence. The job will again be a team effort from players such as Alex Caruso, White, Carter and Dosunmu, with LaVine and DeRozan seeing plenty of on-ball time as well.
Still, this roster needs a true pass-first option to set the table for everyone else in order to thrive after finishing 24th in offense last season.
DeRozan's situation feels extremely unsettled heading into a contract year, especially after celebrating birthday No. 34 this summer. If Chicago gets off to a rough start, DeRozan could easily find himself on the trade block before he leaves in free agency for nothing next summer.
With so many of the young teams in the East only getting better, the Bulls' win total of 40 from last season should take a small hit.
Result: Sell
Dallas Mavericks
3 of 14
2022-23 Record: 38-44
Reasons to Buy
The Mavs plummeted from 52 wins in 2021-22 to just 38 a season ago despite picking up Kyrie Irving at the trade deadline. While part of this was due to some late-season tanking, Dallas still had issues defensively all season (25th overall) with holes at center and on the wing.
A full training camp with Irving will make a difference, as will the addition of Grant Williams, who should be the team's starting power forward. Dereck Lively II, the No. 12 overall pick, has a chance to start according to head coach Jason Kidd, but he's more of a long-term answer instead of a quick fix.
If Josh Green and Jaden Hardy can at least make some mini leaps, this team should return to a near 50-win pace.
Reasons to Sell
The 5-11 record the Mavs posted with Dončić and Irving last season is a little concerning, and the team's third-leading scorer (Christian Wood) just left to sign with the Los Angeles Lakers.
This isn't a very deep Mavericks team, and there's always the possibility of Irving missing time due to injury.
Still, even if this isn't an elite team in the West, Dallas should at least finish .500 or better.
Result: Buy
Detroit Pistons
4 of 14
2022-23 Record: 17-65
Reasons to Buy
Detroit was a popular pick to jump up the standings last season, although losing Cade Cunningham after just 12 games to shin surgery actually saw the Pistons fall from 23 wins the year before down to a league-worst 17.
With Cunningham back healthy, Jaden Ivey and Jalen Duren entering Year 2 and the additions of Ausar Thompson and Joe Harris, it wouldn't be unreasonable to see Detroit actually double their win total from a season ago.
Monty Williams is the perfect head coach for this young group, one that should take a significant step forward.
Reasons to Sell
There's no way the Pistons win fewer than 17 games this season. There's too much young talent on this roster with just enough veteran touch (Bogdan Bogdanović, Harris, Alec Burks, Monte Morris) for Detroit to not win at least 30 games.
This is an easy buy, even if injuries and a crowded frontcourt ultimately keep the Pistons from making a playoff-size leap.
Result: Buy
Houston Rockets
5 of 14
2022-23 Record: 22-60
Reasons to Buy
The word "buy" is an appropriate description for the Rockets' offseason, as the team handed out over a quarter of a billion dollars in contracts to Fred VanVleet, Dillon Brooks, Jock Landale and Jeff Green.
Getting an All-Star level point guard in VanVleet is going to have a monumental impact on this team, one that finished dead last in assist and turnover ratio last season.
There's also no incentive to be bad anymore, as the Rockets only get to keep their 2024 first-round pick if it lands in the top-4 spots overall. If not, it's headed to the Oklahoma City Thunder via the 2019 Russell Westbrook trade.
There's also a ton of young talent on this roster that's had another offseason to grow, headlined by Jalen Green, Jabari Smith Jr. and Alperen Şengün, all of whom have the talent to become future All-Stars.
Reasons to Sell
The Dillon Brooks signing will turn out to be a disaster, and there's a real chance he stunts the growth of the more talented young players on this roster if his shot attempts increase from Memphis.
Still, it would be a shock to see the Rockets take a step back from 22 wins, especially if VanVleet is healthy and running the show.
Result: Buy
Indiana Pacers
6 of 14
2022-23 Record: 35-47
Reasons to Buy
The Pacers didn't have the flashiest offseason, although adding Bruce Brown Jr., Obi Toppin and Jarace Walker gave this team more perimeter defense and front-court depth.
A healthy season out of Tyrese Haliburton would go a long way as well. Indiana was 28-28 in his 56 games last year, yet crumbled to just 7-19 overall when their All-Star point guard was unable to play.
We should see a big year out of Bennedict Mathurin in his sophomore season after he put up 16.7 points as a rookie, especially in a bigger role if Buddy Hield is indeed traded. Myles Turner is tabbing himself as an All-Star this year with the game being held in Indianapolis as well.
Reasons to Sell
Turner is coming off a career year (18.0 points, 7.5 rebounds, 37.3 percent from three), although we don't know if this was an outlier or the new norm.
The Hield trade situation could become a distraction at some point, and we'll need to see either Toppin or Walker establish themself as an everyday starting power forward.
Betting on the Pacers to be better is ultimately a bet on Haliburton and his ability to make a big impact on both sides of the ball. That's a bet we're willing to make.
Result: Buy
Orlando Magic
7 of 14
2022-23 Record: 34-48
Reasons to Buy
Orlando already jumped 12 wins a season ago, with a needle that's still only pointing north.
After beginning 2022-23 just 5-20 overall, the Magic went 29-28 to close out the season, posting a better record than teams like the Phoenix Suns, Atlanta Hawks, New Orleans Pelicans and Dallas Mavericks from Dec. 6 on.
This is still a very young roster that's only getting better, with Paolo Banchero still somehow underrated after putting up a monster Rookie of the Year season. Adding two more lottery picks in Anthony Black and Jett Howard give this roster even more depth, while newly-signed veteran Joe Ingles provides some established playmaking and three-point shooting potential.
Reasons to Sell
It may take a little time to figure out a working rotation here, especially with a roster that's become sneaky-deep.
The point guard position still isn't settled, as Orlando ranked near the bottom of the NBA in most major passing categories. Is this still Markelle Fultz's job with Black around? What happens with Cole Anthony and Jalen Suggs? A trade may be needed to consolidate talent here and give everyone a clearly defined role.
Ultimately, expect this Magic team to take another step forward, even if another 12-win leap is out of the question.
Result: Buy
Oklahoma City Thunder
8 of 14
2022-23 Record: 40-42
Reasons to Buy
The Thunder announced their arrival last season, adding a whopping 16 wins to their 2021-22 total and coming just one game short of reaching the playoffs despite missing Chet Holmgren for the season due to foot surgery.
With the 2022 No. 2 overall pick back and playing well at Summer League, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander coming off an All-NBA first-team appearance and Josh Giddey looking like a future All-Star, OKC is going to officially make its return to the postseason.
Jalen Williams is a big reason why this team will be better as well, as the then-rookie forward averaged 18.6 points, 5.4 rebounds, 4.2 assists and 1.9 steals on 54.6/44.0/89.4 percent shooting splits over his final 26 games, looking like the steal of the 2022 draft.
Reasons to Sell
OKC now becomes the hunted this season, which isn't always an easy adjustment to make. No one is taking this team lightly anymore.
While the Thunder will probably be best with Holmgren at center, asking him to play all 82 games at the position with his thin frame is going to be a real durability test. If he suffers further injury, this frontcourt is still a little light overall.
Overall, Oklahoma City isn't just going to be better in 2023-24, this is a core that could already win a playoff series and has the trade assets to add some serious help at the deadline.
Result: Buy
New Orleans Pelicans
9 of 14
2022-23 Record: 42-40
Reasons to Buy
In the rare times we've seen Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram and CJ McCollum together, they have been one of the best trios in all of basketball.
The Pelicans had a net rating of plus-19.5 with all three on the floor last season (100th percentile, via Cleaning the Glass), although this lasted just 355 total possessions.
Even just having Williamson available makes a big difference, as New Orleans went 17-12 when he played, vs. 25-28 overall when the two-time All-Star was forced to sit due to injury.
If this team is relatively healthy, winning 50-plus games and a top-4 seed in the West is absolutely on the table.
Reasons to Sell
After playing 30 games or more in a season just once in his first four years, there's not a lot of evidence to suggest Williamson will be available. Trey Murphy III could be sidelined until December following meniscus surgery, and McCollum should be slowly moving away from his prime at age 32.
The window is open now for New Orleans to win. As always, health will dictate if it actually will. In the end, the Pelicans' success will come down to Williamson's availability.
Result: Buy if Williamson passes his 29-game total from last year; sell if he doesn't.
Portland Trail Blazers
10 of 14
2022-23 Record: 33-49
Reasons to Buy
Technically, Damian Lillard is still a member of this team, even if he's had at least one foot out the door since July 1.
Scoot Henderson could be the Rookie of the Year, and Jerami Grant is back on a five-year deal. Jusuf Nurkić continues to impact winning, and Matisse Thybulle showed some offensive chops following his trade to Portland last year (38.8 percent from three on 3.8 attempts per game).
Reasons to Sell
We could be close (no, really) to a Lillard trade, with Portland finally facing some sort of a deadline as media day and training camps quickly approach.
Assuming the 33-year-old is moved, the Trail Blazers will be worse at winning basketball games.
Tanking is the best option here, giving Henderson the green light as a scorer and playmaker while feeding the ball to Shaedon Sharpe and Anfernee Simons as much as possible, too.
If all goes to plan, this should be one of the worst teams in all of basketball this season, easily sliding under its 33-win mark from a season ago.
Result: Sell
San Antonio Spurs
11 of 14
2022-23 Record: 22-60
Reasons to Buy
The Spurs seem to have no interest in having bad back-to-back seasons. The last time they failed to win less than 30 games was in 1996-97 (20-62 overall), although taking Tim Duncan with the No. 1 overall pick helped lead to 56 wins the following year.
San Antonio isn't going to make that kind of a jump even with Victor Wembanyama, but it isn't going to repeat last year's 22-win performance, either.
Even if he looks uncomfortable offensively to start, the 19-year-old's massive 8-foot wingspan is going to improve San Antonio's league-worst defense immediately.
The additions of Reggie Bullock and Cedi Osman combined with the growth of players such as Keldon Johnson, Devin Vassell, Jeremy Sochan, Tre Jones and Malaki Branham will help the Spurs climb out of the bottom of the West as well.
Reasons to Sell
Wembanyama could fail to live up to his sky-high expectations, as not even LeBron James was an All-Star as a rookie. This team lacks elite young talent around him and doesn't possess a true go-to offensive option. Asking the French phenom to play this role immediately may be too much.
Patience is still needed here, although few teams have as a good of a building block and future draft picks owed to them like San Antonio. Expect a small leap this year, although this isn't a playoff team just yet.
Result: Buy
Toronto Raptors
12 of 14
2022-23 Record: 41-41
Reasons to Buy
The even slight chance at winning the Damian Lillard sweepstakes is the only opportunity for Toronto to improve on its .500 season after losing Fred VanVleet to the Houston Rockets in free agency. FIBA MVP Dennis Schröder is a solid starter, but he's more of a sixth man at this stage of his career.
If the Raptors can acquire Lillard and still keep Pascal Siakam and O.G. Anunoby, this is a 50-plus win team in the East once again, even if it means giving up Scottie Barnes, Gradey Dick, Gary Trent Jr. and other players/picks.
Reasons to Sell
If Lillard ends up with the Miami Heat and Toronto enters the season with Schröder, this just isn't as good of a team as the one run by VanVleet last year.
Siakam and Anunoby's expiring contracts could become a distraction, and there's still a severe lack of shooting on the roster after finishing 28th in three-point accuracy last season (33.5 percent).
Unless the Raptors have another move up their sleeve, this continues to be a mediocre roster that only got worse.
Result: Sell
Utah Jazz
13 of 14
2022-23 Record: 37-45
Reasons to Buy
Utah shocked everyone by starting 10-3 overall last season, although a 2-9 finish to the year meant its carriage again turned back into a pumpkin.
It's hard to judge this Jazz team, one that has enough veteran talent to want to win now (Lauri Markkanen, Jordan Clarkson, John Collins, Kelly Olynyk, Collin Sexton) but also just added three rookies in the first round. Walker Kessler and Ochai Agbaji are only entering their second years as well.
This is a well-coached group that plays hard, which always adds a few wins over the course of an 82-game schedule.
Collins should be hungry to prove he's still one of the better power forwards in the league after a disappointing end to his time in Atlanta, while Talen Horton-Tucker showed flashes of his scoring and playmaking ceiling last season.
Reasons to Sell
The point guard position is still unsettled, as there are too many combo guards and no true pass-first options to run this offense.
This is still a very young roster with a whopping nine players having been born in the 2000s. There's not a lot of postseason experience to go around either, meaning this could be a bridge to something special rather than a playoff team this year itself.
Utah won't completely bottom out in the West, but asking it to win 38 games or more is too much.
Result: Sell
Washington Wizards
14 of 14
2022-23 Record: 35-47
Reasons to Buy
Jordan Poole is going to put up big numbers with an increased role in this offense, Kyle Kuzma surprisingly re-signed on a four-year deal, and Washington hasn't completely gutted the veterans off this roster.
Other than that, there's really no reason to believe the Wizards will be better this season, which is kind of the plan.
Reasons to Sell
Bradley Beal and Kristaps Porziņģis are gone, 2023 lottery pick Bilal Coulibaly is extremely raw, and the Golden State Warriors were 5.9 points per 100 possessions worse with Poole in the game last season.
All of this adds up to being a long season in Washington, which was the right choice to make for a franchise stuck in mediocrity. More veterans will be traded as the season goes along, helping the Wizards dig themselves down deeper toward the No. 1 overall pick in 2024.
Washington wants to be worse, and worse it shall be. This is an easy sell.
Result: Sell
