Bowl Projections 2023-24: Predictions for CFP, New Year's Six After Week 5 AP Poll

The Florida State Seminoles, Ohio State Buckeyes and Penn State Nittany Lions confirmed their College Football Playoff candidacies with wins on Saturday.

Florida State installed itself as the ACC favorite with its overtime road win over the Clemson Tigers.

However, FSU's triumph was not the most impressive victory of the weekend. Ohio State's last-second victory over Notre Dame moved the Buckeyes up one spot over FSU in the latest AP Top 25.

Penn State also moved up a position thanks to its home victory over the Iowa Hawkeyes. The shutout put some of Penn State's future opponents, including Ohio State. on notice with what its defense is capable of in a Top 25 clash.

FSU has the easiest path to the playoff of those three teams. Ohio State and Penn State each have at least two major tests in front of them.

The Michigan Wolverines will be challenge by both the Buckeyes and Nittany Lions. Michigan enters Week 5 inside the top three alongside the Georgia Bulldogs and Texas Longhorns.

Week 5 AP Poll

Rich von Biberstein/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

ATLANTA, GA SEPTEMBER 23: Georgia tight end Brock Bowers (19) runs with the ball after a reception during the college football game between the UAB Blazers and the Georgia Bulldogs on September 23rd, 2023 at Sanford Stadium in Athens, GA. (Photo by Rich von Biberstein/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

1. Georgia (4-0)

2. Michigan (4-0)

3. Texas (4-0)

4. Ohio State (4-0)

5. Florida State (4-0)

6. Penn State (4-0)

7. Washington (4-0)

8. USC (4-0)

9. Oregon (4-0)

10. Utah (4-0)

11. Notre Dame (4-1)

12. Alabama (3-1)

13. LSU (3-1)

14. Oklahoma (4-0)

15. North Carolina (4-0)

16. Washington State (4-0)

17. Duke (4-0)

18. Miami (4-0)

19. Oregon State (3-1)

20. Ole Miss (3-1)

21. Tennessee (3-1)

22. Florida (3-1)

23. Missouri (4-0)

24. Kansas (4-0)

25. Fresno State (4-0)

Bowl Projections

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SOUTH BEND, IN - SEPTEMBER 23: Ohio State Buckeyes quarterback Kyle McCord (6) passes the ball during a college football game against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish on September 23, 2023 at Notre Dame Stadium in South Bend, Indiana. (Photo by Joe Robbins/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

College Football Playoff

Rose Bowl (January 1): No. 2 Michigan vs. No. 3 Texas

Sugar Bowl (January 1): No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 4 Florida State

New Years' Six

Cotton Bowl (December 29): Oklahoma vs. USC

Orange Bowl (December 30): North Carolina vs. Penn State

Peach Bowl (December 30): Washington vs. Ohio State

Fiesta Bowl (January 1): Oregon vs. Fresno State

Florida State appears to be in the best position to land in the playoff of the three biggest victors from Week 4.

The Seminoles do not have any current Top 15 teams left on their schedule. They should be favored in every one of their remaining games.

FSU's one spot drop in the AP Top 25 should not be concerning because of that easy slate ahead of it.

The top three Big Ten teams all have to play each other in the regular season, as do Texas and the Oklahoma Sooners.

The quartet of Pac-12 programs in the AP top 10 will sort themselves out as well, and there is a chance that league cannibalizes its playoff chances like it has in previous years because of too much parity.

Ohio State proved it could win a big game under first-year starting quarterback Kyle McCord. The low-scoring victory will help the Buckeyes gain confidence ahead of two potential defensive battles with Michigan and Penn State.

The Buckeyes could at least be in the mix for a New Years' Six bowl if they lose both of those Big Ten battles.

The same could be said about Penn State after its win over Iowa. Michigan and Ohio State are the biggest challengers to the Nittany Lions' playoff threat. They should at least win the remainder of their games to be in the running for a NY6 bowl.

Notre Dame is now in the most trouble of any playoff or NY6 contender since it lost to Ohio State and still has to face the Duke Blue Devils and USC Trojans.

One more Notre Dame loss could eliminate a potential contender for the top spots in the CFB Playoff rankings.