Bleacher Report's 2023-24 Bowl Projections Entering Week 4
Heading into the fourth weekend of the 2023 college football season, the bowl picture is about to start taking greater shape.
Preseason beliefs still have a reasonably large impact on the projections. However, the beginning of conference action both exposes some overvalued teams and establishes a few surprise risers.
The arrival of league play also brings a host of marquee games, and the upcoming slate is loaded with those matchups. What we might believe about the College Football Playoff picture today may be completely different by the time Week 4 has wrapped up.
Each Tuesday for the remainder of the season, Bleacher Report will unveil a fresh batch of bowl projections.
Group of 5 Matchups
1 of 6
Bahamas (Dec. 16): Liberty vs. Ohio
New Orleans (Dec. 16): South Alabama vs. Western Kentucky
Cure (Dec. 16): Florida Atlantic vs. Louisiana
New Mexico (Dec. 16): Wyoming vs. New Mexico State
Myrtle Beach (Dec. 18): Temple vs. Appalachian State
Frisco (Dec. 19): Rice vs. Troy
Boca Raton (Dec. 21): Louisiana Tech vs. Georgia Southern
Camellia (Dec. 23): Eastern Michigan vs. Georgia State
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl (Dec. 23): Miami (OH) vs. UNLV
68 Ventures (Dec. 23): Northern Illinois vs. Marshall
Hawai'i (Dec. 23): UTSA vs. Boise State
Arizona (Dec. 30): Ball State vs. San Diego State
Stock Up: Rice Owls
Can they finally crack six victories? Rice appeared in the LendingTree Bowl in 2022 yet only headed to the postseason because it had the highest Academic Progress Rate (APR) of five-win teams. Rice hasn't hit six since the 2014 campaign but is 2-1 after upsetting Houston in Week 2.
Stock Down: Troy Trojans
Troy, however, is a disappointing 1-2 as the program tries to defend its Sun Belt crown. After losing 42-13 at Kansas State, the Trojans lost a disappointing 16-14 result at home against James Madison. Troy needs to unlock a more productive offense to stay in the hunt.
Group of 5 vs. Power 5
2 of 6
LA (Dec. 16): UCLA vs. Fresno State
Gasparilla (Dec. 22): Mississippi State vs. Coastal Carolina
Birmingham (Dec. 23): Missouri vs. Tulane
Armed Forces (Dec. 23): Arkansas vs. Army
Quick Lane (Dec. 26): Minnesota vs. Toledo
Military (Dec. 27): Wake Forest vs. Memphis
Fenway (Dec. 28): Pitt vs. SMU
Moving Up: Missouri Tigers
Thanks to Harrison Mevis' 61-yard field goal as time expired, Missouri upended Kansas State and put itself in a favorable spot for a third straight bowl appearance. However, the road gets much, much tougher after a neutral-site clash with Memphis and a trip to Missouri in Week 5, so the Tigers need to take advantage of these next two games.
Sliding Down: Arkansas Razorbacks
On the other hand, the Razorbacks just missed a big opportunity at home. They squandered a 10-point third-quarter edge and, despite holding BYU to 281 yards, lost 38-31. Arkansas is set to enter a four-week gauntlet that includes traveling to LSU, playing Texas A&M at a neutral site (Arlington) and heading to Ole Miss and Alabama.
Power 5 Matchups, Part I
3 of 6
Independence (Dec. 16): Texas Tech vs. Washington State
Las Vegas (Dec. 23): Iowa vs. Colorado
First Responder (Dec. 26): Cincinnati vs. Arizona
Guaranteed Rate (Dec. 26): Illinois vs. TCU
Mayo (Dec. 27): Duke vs. Florida
Holiday (Dec. 27): Louisville vs. Utah
Texas (Dec. 27): UCF vs. Texas A&M
Pinstripe (Dec. 28): North Carolina State vs. Rutgers
Pop-Tarts (Dec. 28): North Carolina vs. Kansas
Alamo (Dec. 28): Oklahoma vs. Oregon
Stock Up: Colorado Buffaloes
I'll make the receipt-digging easy for Colorado fans: You wouldn't have found CU in my bowl projections earlier in the year. Thanks to a high-powered offense, the Buffs are definitely a postseason threat. But if they're going to challenge for anything more, that'll have to start with a victory over Oregon and/or USC during the next two weekends.
Stock Down: North Carolina Tar Heels
Consider this mostly a function of the ACC likely not having two teams in a New Year's Six bowl. As a result, the league's second tier—think Clemson, Miami and UNC—dip slightly in the selection order. Still, the Pop-Tarts Bowl (formerly Cheez-It Bowl) should bring a decent Big 12 opponent.
.jpg?w=256 "NFL Draft Football")
Power 5 Matchups, Part II
4 of 6
Gator (Dec. 29): Clemson vs. Ole Miss
Sun (Dec. 29): Syracuse vs. Oregon State
Liberty (Dec. 29): BYU vs. Kentucky
Music City (Dec. 30): Maryland vs. Auburn
ReliaQuest (Jan. 1): Miami vs. Tennessee
Citrus (Jan. 1): Wisconsin vs. Alabama
Stock Up: Miami Hurricanes
Miami received a lot of positive attention after rolling Texas A&M, and both new coordinators—Shannon Dawson and Lance Guidry—seem to have ignited their units. Back-to-back games against North Carolina and Clemson in mid-October will likely have a significant impact on where the 'Canes land for bowl season.
Stock Down: Alabama Crimson Tide
The worst-case scenario of Alabama's quarterback question has appeared. After losing to Texas, the Tide benched Jalen Milroe in favor of Tyler Buchner. He was ineffective in two quarters of work against South Florida and gave way to Ty Simpson. He helped Bama win, but is the true freshman ready for the SEC? Alabama is absolutely at risk of missing a New Year's Six bowl for only the second time in the CFP era.
Non-CFP New Year's Six Games
5 of 6
Cotton Bowl (Dec. 29): Kansas State vs. LSU
Peach Bowl (Dec. 30): Notre Dame vs. Penn State
Orange Bowl (Dec. 30): Florida State vs. Ohio State
Fiesta Bowl (Jan. 1): Air Force vs. Washington
Stock Up: Air Force Falcons
In the preseason, I picked Boise State to represent the Group of Five in a New Year's Six bowl. Fast-forward a few weeks, and the Broncos are 1-2 with an ugly loss to Washington and a missed opportunity against UCF. That's opened the door for Air Force to make a serious run at 11 wins and take a turn in the national spotlight.
Stock Down: Kansas State Wildcats
Kansas State's loss to Missouri on a last-second field goal, in theory, is not unlike 2022. Despite an early letdown opposite Tulane, the Wildcats stormed back in Big 12 play and earned a conference title. But they'll need a similar surge to eclipse Oklahoma in the race to chase down Texas.
College Football Playoff
6 of 6
Rose Bowl (Jan. 1): Michigan (2) vs. USC (3)
Sugar Bowl (Jan. 1): Georgia (1) vs. Texas (4)
National Championship (Jan. 8): Georgia vs. Michigan
Looking back at Week 3, consider it a Saturday of unimpressive wins for the current College Football Playoff group.
Georgia headed to halftime down 14-3 against South Carolina before three rushing scores propelled UGA to a 24-14 win. Texas, meanwhile, entered the fourth quarter in a 10-10 deadlock with Wyoming, ultimately pulling away for a 31-10 victory.
Michigan wrapped up its easy nonconference slate with a 31-6 triumph over Bowling Green, but quarterback J.J. McCarthy tossed three interceptions in just 13 attempts.
Throw in USC's idle weekend, and no program really made a strong case to shift the rankings.
.jpg?w=480 "NFL Draft Football")
.jpg?w=480)
.jpg?w=480 "Texans Giants Football")
.JPEG?w=600 "Best Late-Round Draft Steals ‼️")
.jpg?w=600 "Mel Kiper's Top Draft Grades ✍️")
.jpg?w=600 "Deion's Message to Pavia 💯")