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Re-Sign or Move On?: Predicting the Outcome for Each MLB Team's Top Free Agent

Joel ReuterSep 15, 2023

As the 2023 MLB regular season winds to a close, many of the league's teams have already fallen out of postseason contention and turned their focus to the upcoming offseason.

Even for teams still in the thick of the playoff hunt, it's never too early to start looking ahead to what awaits on the horizon in what promises to be another busy offseason of free agency shuffling.

Ahead is a look at each team's top upcoming free agency, and a prediction on whether the front office will push to re-sign them or turn the page and move on.

Roster construction, expected cost and recent production all played a role in predicting what each team would do.

Included is a list of each team's other notable free agents, as well as players with club, player or mutual options that will need to be decided.

Arizona Diamondbacks: OF Lourdes Gurriel Jr.

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CHICAGO, ILLINOIS - SEPTEMBER 10: Lourdes Gurriel Jr. #12 of the Arizona Diamondbacks bats against the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field on September 10, 2023 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Nuccio DiNuzzo/Getty Images)
CHICAGO, ILLINOIS - SEPTEMBER 10: Lourdes Gurriel Jr. #12 of the Arizona Diamondbacks bats against the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field on September 10, 2023 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Nuccio DiNuzzo/Getty Images)

Prediction: Move on

The D-backs acquired Lourdes Gurriel Jr. last offseason along with promising young catcher Gabriel Moreno in a deal with the Toronto Blue Jays that sent Daulton Varsho the other way.

The 29-year-old is hitting .260/.310/.473 for a 110 OPS+ with career-highs in doubles (33) and home runs (23) while posting a 2.5-WAR season. He was also an All-Star this year for the first time in his six-year career.

With Corbin Carroll and Alek Thomas both looking like long-term pieces in the outfield and guys like Jake McCarthy, Pavin Smith, Dominic Fletcher and prospect A.J. Vuckovich also in the mix for playing time in the grass, expect the D-backs to let someone else pay Gurriel this winter.

Other Notable Free Agents: OF Tommy Pham, 3B Evan Longoria, SP Zach Davies (mutual option)

Atlanta Braves: RP Joe Jiménez

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ATLANTA, GA - AUGUST 14: Atlanta Braves relief pitcher Joe Jimenez #77 delivers a pitch during the MLB game between the New York Yankees and the Atlanta Braves on August 14, 2023 at Truist Park in Atlanta, Georgia.  (Photo by Jeff Robinson/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
ATLANTA, GA - AUGUST 14: Atlanta Braves relief pitcher Joe Jimenez #77 delivers a pitch during the MLB game between the New York Yankees and the Atlanta Braves on August 14, 2023 at Truist Park in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Jeff Robinson/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Prediction: Move on

Assuming the $20 million club option on veteran starter Charlie Morton is a no-brainer, let's use this space to talk about one of the Atlanta Braves most important relievers in setup man Joe Jiménez.

Acquired from the Detroit Tigers during the offseason for a pair of prospects, Jiménez has a 3.38 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 11.5 K/9 with 12 holds in 53 appearances, and at 28 years old he is a clear candidate for a multiyear deal in free agency.

The three-year, $33 million deal that Taylor Rogers received from the San Francisco Giants last offseason might be his ceiling in negotiations, and that might be more than the Braves are willing to spend with other in-house options to fill that role. He might also be motivated by a team that is willing to give him an opportunity to close games.

Other Notable Free Agents: RP Pierce Johnson, RP Jesse Chavez, OF Kevin Pillar, OF Eddie Rosario (club option), RP Kirby Yates (club option), RP Brad Hand (mutual option)

Baltimore Orioles: SP Kyle Gibson

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BALTIMORE, MARYLAND - AUGUST 24: Kyle Gibson #48 of the Baltimore Orioles pitches against the Toronto Blue Jays during the second inning at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on August 24, 2023 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Jess Rapfogel/Getty Images)
BALTIMORE, MARYLAND - AUGUST 24: Kyle Gibson #48 of the Baltimore Orioles pitches against the Toronto Blue Jays during the second inning at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on August 24, 2023 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Jess Rapfogel/Getty Images)

Prediction: Move on

The Orioles cut ties with Jordan Lyles last offseason, then signed Kyle Gibson to a one-year, $10 million deal to replace him as the elder statesmen in a young starting rotation.

The 35-year-old has gone 14-9 with a 4.98 ERA, 1.32 WHIP and 144 strikeouts in 175.1 innings while making at least 30 starts for the sixth time in his career, and there is plenty of value in that type of consistent durability. He also has a 4.13 FIP that paints a more promising picture of future success than his ERA.

The Orioles will enter next season with Kyle Bradish, Grayson Rodriguez and Dean Kremer locked into rotation spots, while Tyler Wells, Cole Irvin and a healthy John Means will also be in the mix. If they are going to add a veteran to that mix, it's time to aim a bit higher and target a proven ace-caliber starter, perhaps on the trade market using their abundance of young infield talent.

Other Notable Free Agents: SP Jack Flaherty, OF Aaron Hicks, 2B Adam Frazier, RP Shintaro Fujinami

TOP NEWS

Detroit Tigers v Atlanta Braves
Baltimore Orioles v New York Yankees
Chicago White Sox v San Diego Padres

Boston Red Sox: DH Justin Turner

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BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS - SEPTEMBER 09: Justin Turner #2 of the Boston Red Sox at bat against the Baltimore Orioles during the third inning at Fenway Park on September 09, 2023 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)
BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS - SEPTEMBER 09: Justin Turner #2 of the Boston Red Sox at bat against the Baltimore Orioles during the third inning at Fenway Park on September 09, 2023 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)

Prediction: Move on

Veteran Justin Turner has quietly been one of the better signings of the offseason, hitting .283/.354/.475 with 28 doubles, 23 home runs and 94 RBI in 132 games while replacing J.D. Martinez as the primary DH in Boston.

His one-year, $8.3 million deal comes with a 2024 player option valued at $13.4 million with a hefty $6.7 million buyout, so if he thinks he can get more than $6.7 million for a 2024 salary on the open market it makes the most financial sense for him to take the buyout.

From a roster construction standpoint, it also makes sense for the Red Sox to move on.

"If they again lock Turner into the DH slot full-time, that means the Sox can't utilize either Rafael Devers or Masataka Yoshida there and consigns them to playing two below-average defenders on a pretty much everyday basis," wrote Sean McAdam of MassLive.com.

Other Notable Free Agents: OF Adam Duvall, SP James Paxton, SP Corey Kluber (club option)

Chicago Cubs: 1B/CF Cody Bellinger

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DENVER, CO - SEPTEMBER 13: Cody Bellinger #24 of the Chicago Cubs celebrates after scoring a third-inning run against the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field on September 13, 2023 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Dustin Bradford/Getty Images)
DENVER, CO - SEPTEMBER 13: Cody Bellinger #24 of the Chicago Cubs celebrates after scoring a third-inning run against the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field on September 13, 2023 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Dustin Bradford/Getty Images)

Prediction: Move on

First things first, there is zero chance that Cody Bellinger is going to exercise his end of a $25 million mutual option for the 2024 season after a huge bounce-back year has put him in position for a massive payday.

Will the Cubs be the team to give him that payday?

The smart money says no, and the arrival of top prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong is the biggest reason why.

One of the game's best defensive outfielders and a potential future Gold Glove winner, Crow-Armstrong is going to be patrolling center field for years to come, which would mean re-signing Bellinger as an everyday first baseman. That cuts into the value he provides as a versatile defensive option, and would make it that much more difficult for him to live up to his future salary.

If the North Siders are smart, they'll let someone else roll the dice on Bellinger's return to prominence.

Other Notable Free Agents: 3B Jeimer Candelario, RP Michael Fulmer, SP Marcus Stroman (opt-out), SP Kyle Hendricks (club option), RP Brad Boxberger (mutual option)

Chicago White Sox: SS Tim Anderson

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DETROIT, MICHIGAN - SEPTEMBER 09: Tyler Nevin #18 of the Detroit Tigers slides to second on a fielding error by second baseman Lenyn Sosa #50 of the Chicago White Sox during the bottom of the fourth inning at Comerica Park on September 09, 2023 in Detroit, Michigan. (Photo by Nic Antaya/Getty Images)
DETROIT, MICHIGAN - SEPTEMBER 09: Tyler Nevin #18 of the Detroit Tigers slides to second on a fielding error by second baseman Lenyn Sosa #50 of the Chicago White Sox during the bottom of the fourth inning at Comerica Park on September 09, 2023 in Detroit, Michigan. (Photo by Nic Antaya/Getty Images)

Prediction: Move on

The Chicago White Sox clubhouse culture has been put under a microscope this season amid their disappointing fall from AL Central contenders to one of the worst teams in baseball.

Longtime shortstop Tim Anderson survived a deadline fire sale, but perhaps only because he was in the midst of by far the worst season of his career. The fact that he stuck around is no guarantee that a $14 million club option will be exercised, especially considering it only carries a $1 million buyout.

With top prospect Colson Montgomery already playing at Double-A and perhaps pushing his way into the MLB picture before next season is over, the White Sox could cut ties with Anderson and go with a cheaper stopgap option to bridge the tap to the future at the position.

Other Notable Free Agents: C Yasmani Grandal, IF Elvis Andrus, RP Liam Hendriks (club option), SP Mike Clevinger (mutual option)

Cincinnati Reds: 1B Joey Votto

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ANAHEIM, CA - AUGUST 22: Cincinnati Reds first baseman Joey Votto (19) during an at bat in an MLB baseball game against the Los Angeles Angels played on August 22, 2023 at Angel Stadium in Anaheim, CA. (Photo by John Cordes/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
ANAHEIM, CA - AUGUST 22: Cincinnati Reds first baseman Joey Votto (19) during an at bat in an MLB baseball game against the Los Angeles Angels played on August 22, 2023 at Angel Stadium in Anaheim, CA. (Photo by John Cordes/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Prediction: Re-sign

Joey Votto is currently wrapping up the final season of a 10-year, $225 million contract, but that deal also includes a $20 million club option for 2024 that carries a $7 million buyout.

Expect that buyout to be exercised, but that doesn't mean the two sides won't come together on a deal that helps ensure Votto can play his entire career in Cincinnati.

The 40-year-old has missed time to injury this year, but he has still been productive when healthy, posting a 103 OPS+ with 14 home runs and 35 RBI in 53 games. He has already expressed interest in playing again next season, and a one-year deal with tiered incentives for games played might be the logical move for both sides.

Other Notable Free Agents: OF Harrison Bader, OF Hunter Renfroe, RP Buck Farmer, C Luke Maile, C Curt Casali (mutual option)

Cleveland Guardians: SP Lucas Giolito

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ANAHEIM, CA - SEPTEMBER 09: Cleveland Guardians pitcher Lucas Giolito (27) pitching during an MLB baseball game against the Los Angeles Angels played on September 9, 2023 at Angel Stadium in Anaheim, CA. (Photo by John Cordes/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
ANAHEIM, CA - SEPTEMBER 09: Cleveland Guardians pitcher Lucas Giolito (27) pitching during an MLB baseball game against the Los Angeles Angels played on September 9, 2023 at Angel Stadium in Anaheim, CA. (Photo by John Cordes/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Prediction: Move on

The only free agents on the Cleveland roster are the three pitchers they scooped up off waivers from the Los Angeles Angels at the end of August—Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo López and Matt Moore.

Giolito has an 8.02 ERA in eight starts since he was initially traded from the White Sox to the Angels ahead of the July trade deadline, but his strong track record of frontline performance still figures to make him one of the highest-paid starters on the market this winter.

It won't be the Guardians ponying up that significant payday.

Other Notable Free Agents: RP Reynaldo López, RP Matt Moore

Colorado Rockies: OF Charlie Blackmon

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DENVER, CO - SEPTEMBER 12: Charlie Blackmon #19 of the Colorado Rockies bats in the sixth inning against the Chicago Cubs at Coors Field on September 12, 2023 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Dustin Bradford/Getty Images)
DENVER, CO - SEPTEMBER 12: Charlie Blackmon #19 of the Colorado Rockies bats in the sixth inning against the Chicago Cubs at Coors Field on September 12, 2023 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Dustin Bradford/Getty Images)

Prediction: Re-sign

In his 13th season with the Colorado Rockies, outfielder Charlie Blackmon is still an above-average offensive performer, hitting .276/.368/.429 for a 106 OPS+ in 351 plate appearances over 81 games.

The 37-year-old was a second round pick out of Georgia Tech in 2008, and he has spent every day of his professional career in the Colorado organization, so there's no reason to think he is going to jump ship this late in his career.

Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post reported in August that there is mutual interest between Blackmon and the Rockies in a new deal, and keeping him around for another year should be an easy decision if the price is right.

Other Notable Free Agents: RP Brent Suter

Detroit Tigers: RP José Cisnero

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DETROIT, MI - AUGUST 05: Detroit Tigers RP Jose Cisnero (67) in action during game between Tampa Bay Rays and Detroit Tigers on August 5, 2023 at Comerica Park in Detroit, MI (Photo by Allan Dranberg/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
DETROIT, MI - AUGUST 05: Detroit Tigers RP Jose Cisnero (67) in action during game between Tampa Bay Rays and Detroit Tigers on August 5, 2023 at Comerica Park in Detroit, MI (Photo by Allan Dranberg/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Prediction: Re-sign

José Cisnero has made 152 appearances for the Detroit Tigers since the start of the 2021 season, making him one of only 73 pitchers who has appeared in at least 150 games during that three-year span.

He has posted a lackluster 5.37 ERA in 57 games this season, but a closer look reveals a solid 4.45 FIP and a strong 60-to-21 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 52 innings. He has also tallied two saves and 13 holds pitching in some high-leverage spots.

It was a bit surprising that no one claimed him when he was placed on waivers in August, but perhaps that means that the Tigers will value him more highly than other clubs in free agency and he will wind up re-signing in short order.

Other Notable Free Agents: SP Matthew Boyd, C Carson Kelly (club option)

Houston Astros: OF Michael Brantley

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HOUSTON, TEXAS - SEPTEMBER 02: Michael Brantley #23 of the Houston Astros hits a two-run home run in the second inning against the New York Yankees at Minute Maid Park on September 02, 2023 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images)
HOUSTON, TEXAS - SEPTEMBER 02: Michael Brantley #23 of the Houston Astros hits a two-run home run in the second inning against the New York Yankees at Minute Maid Park on September 02, 2023 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images)

Prediction: Re-sign

Take your pick from the Houston Astros four notable free agents, and they are each key members of the team and have been for several years running.

Is this finally the offseason where the Astros move on from light-hitting defensive standout Martín Maldonado behind the plate to give standout rookie Yainer Diaz a clear path to the starting job? I'd expect Maldonado to return, even if it's in a diminished role.

The most high-profile free agent is Michael Brantley, who only recently made his 2023 debut after undergoing shoulder surgery last offseason and suffering a setback in his recovery. However, the five-time All-Star has picked up right where he left off, hitting .333/.343/.545 with two home runs and six RBI in 10 games.

Another one-year, $12 million deal, anyone?

Other Notable Free Agents: C Martín Maldonado, RP Phil Maton, RP Ryne Stanek

Kansas City Royals: SP Zack Greinke

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KANSAS CITY, MISSOURI - AUGUST 28: Zack Greinke #23 of the Kansas City Royals pitches in the first inning against the Pittsburgh Pirates at Kauffman Stadium on August 28, 2023 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by Ed Zurga/Getty Images)
KANSAS CITY, MISSOURI - AUGUST 28: Zack Greinke #23 of the Kansas City Royals pitches in the first inning against the Pittsburgh Pirates at Kauffman Stadium on August 28, 2023 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by Ed Zurga/Getty Images)

Prediction: Retire

Is this the end of the line for Zack Greinke?

The 39-year-old saw his career come full circle when he rejoined the Kansas City Royals on a one-year deal for the 2022 season, and he pitched well in his return with a 3.68 ERA in 137 innings.

That led to another one-year, $8.5 million deal with Kansas City, but this season he has struggled mightily while going 1-15 with a 5.47 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and a .287 opponents' batting average in 126.2 innings.

Greinke was never going to be one to announce his retirement in advance and soak up the retirement tour season, so don't be surprised if he just quietly rides off into the sunset this winter.

Other Notable Free Agents: SP Brad Keller, IF Matt Duffy

Los Angeles Angels: DH/SP Shohei Ohtani

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OAKLAND, CALIFORNIA - SEPTEMBER 02: Shohei Ohtani #17 of the Los Angeles Angels bats against the Oakland Athletics in the top of the seventh inning at RingCentral Coliseum on September 02, 2023 in Oakland, California. (Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images)
OAKLAND, CALIFORNIA - SEPTEMBER 02: Shohei Ohtani #17 of the Los Angeles Angels bats against the Oakland Athletics in the top of the seventh inning at RingCentral Coliseum on September 02, 2023 in Oakland, California. (Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images)

Prediction: Move on

Props to the Los Angeles Angels front office for going all-in at the trade deadline in one last-ditch attempt to convince Shohei Ohtani that they can be a postseason contender, but the playoff push fell short and Ohtani is almost certainly headed elsewhere this winter.

"According to an industry source briefed on Ohtani's thinking, although he prefers the West Coast, the potential to win championships will be given more weight than geography, as long as a team is willing to at least match the best offer he receives in free agency," wrote Jim Bowden of The Athletic.

With one postseason appearance in the last 14 years, the Angels are simply not that team.

Other Notable Free Agents: IF Gio Urshela, OF Randal Grichuk, 1B C.J. Cron, IF Mike Moustakas, IF Eduardo Escobar (club option), RP Aaron Loup (club option)

Los Angeles Dodgers: SP Clayton Kershaw

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MIAMI, FLORIDA - SEPTEMBER 05: Clayton Kershaw #22 of the Los Angeles Dodgers delivers a pitch against the Miami Marlins during the first inning at loanDepot park on September 05, 2023 in Miami, Florida. (Photo by Megan Briggs/Getty Images)
MIAMI, FLORIDA - SEPTEMBER 05: Clayton Kershaw #22 of the Los Angeles Dodgers delivers a pitch against the Miami Marlins during the first inning at loanDepot park on September 05, 2023 in Miami, Florida. (Photo by Megan Briggs/Getty Images)

Prediction: Re-sign

The Dodgers have a long list of upcoming free agents, and that could mean a ton of money coming off the books for a potential run at Shohei Ohtani in free agency.

Will Clayton Kershaw return for another season?

The future Hall of Famer has flirted with the idea of leaving in the past, but has always found his way back to the Dodgers, and at this point the most likely outcome seems to be a series of one-year deals until he decides to call it quits.

The 35-year-old signed one-year deals for 2022 ($17 million) and 2023 ($20 million), and while he is no longer a lock for 200 innings, he continues to pitch at a high level when healthy. In 21 starts this season, he is 12-4 with a 2.61 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and 123 strikeouts in 117.1 innings.

Other Notable Free Agents: SP Julio Urías, DH J.D. Martinez, IF/OF Enrique Hernández, OF David Peralta, SS Amed Rosario, OF Jason Heyward, RP Shelby Miller, SP Lance Lynn (club option), RP Blake Treinen (club option), RP Daniel Hudson (club option), RP Joe Kelly (club option)

Miami Marlins: SS Joey Wendle

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WASHINGTON, DC - SEPTEMBER 03:  Joey Wendle #18 of the Miami Marlins takes a swing during a baseball game against the Washington Nationals at Nationals Park on September 3, 2023 in Washington, DC.  (Photo by Mitchell Layton/Getty Images)
WASHINGTON, DC - SEPTEMBER 03: Joey Wendle #18 of the Miami Marlins takes a swing during a baseball game against the Washington Nationals at Nationals Park on September 3, 2023 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Mitchell Layton/Getty Images)

Prediction: Move on

With Miguel Rojas traded to the Los Angeles Dodgers during the offseason, Joey Wendle has been the Miami Marlins primary shortstop this year, starting 77 of 145 games at the position.

The 33-year-old has been a non-factor offensively, hitting .222/.257/.323 for a 58 OPS+ with 21 extra-base hits in 299 plate appearances, but he has still provided some positive value thanks to his glovework.

With solid defensive metrics (5 DRS, 3.2 UZR/150) at shortstop, he should have no trouble finding a role as a utility infielder, but the Marlins will almost certainly be looking for an upgrade in the starting shortstop role.

Other Notable Free Agents: RP David Robertson, 1B Yuli Gurriel, SP Johnny Cueto (club option), RP Matt Barnes (club option), UT Jon Berti (club option)

Milwaukee Brewers: OF Mark Canha

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NEW YORK, NEW YORK - SEPTEMBER 09:  Mark Canha #21 of the Milwaukee Brewers follows through on his eighth inning RBI single against the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium on September 9, 2023 in the Bronx borough of New York City. (Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images)
NEW YORK, NEW YORK - SEPTEMBER 09: Mark Canha #21 of the Milwaukee Brewers follows through on his eighth inning RBI single against the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium on September 9, 2023 in the Bronx borough of New York City. (Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images)

Prediction: Exercise option

Sent packing as part of the New York Mets summer fire sale, outfielder Mark Canha has quietly been one of the most productive deadline pickups of the year.

The 34-year-old is hitting .303/.394/.459 with 11 extra-base hits and 21 RBI in 36 games since joining the Milwaukee Brewers, and he has recently begun hitting cleanup in a lineup that has been lacking in consistent run production for the past several years.

He has an $11.5 million club option for next season that carries a $2 million buyout, and while that would represent a significant financial investment for a Brewers team that generally skews more cost-conscious, they will have to seriously consider retaining him at that price.

Other Notable Free Agents: 3B/OF Brian Anderson, 1B Carlos Santana, OF Jesse Winker, C Victor Caratini, SP Julio Teheran, RP Andrew Chafin (club option), SP Wade Miley (mutual option)

Minnesota Twins: SP Sonny Gray

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MINNEAPOLIS, MINNESOTA - SEPTEMBER 11: Sonny Gray #54 of the Minnesota Twins delivers a pitch against the Tampa Bay Rays in the first inning at Target Field on September 11, 2023 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. (Photo by David Berding/Getty Images)
MINNEAPOLIS, MINNESOTA - SEPTEMBER 11: Sonny Gray #54 of the Minnesota Twins delivers a pitch against the Tampa Bay Rays in the first inning at Target Field on September 11, 2023 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. (Photo by David Berding/Getty Images)

Prediction: Re-sign

An All-Star in 2015, 2019 and 2023, Sonny Gray has had a career filled with ups and downs, but he has put together a pair of excellent seasons with the Minnesota Twins to close out a five-year, $50.7 million contract.

The 33-year-old has a 2.96 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 165 strikeouts in 167 innings this year, and his sweeper has been one of baseball's best pitches, limiting opposing hitters to a .107 average and .129 slugging percentage while generating a 41.5 percent whiff rate and 96 strikeouts.

The contracts signed by Chris Bassitt (three years, $63 million) and Nathan Eovaldi (two years, $34 million) last offseason provide a reasonable blueprint of what Gray will likely command given his age and track record, and there is not a better way for the Twins to spend that type of money.

Other Notable Free Agents: SP Tyler Mahle, SP Kenta Maeda, RP Dylan Floro, RP Emilio Pagán, 1B/OF Joey Gallo, IF Donovan Solano, OF Michael A. Taylor, 2B Jorge Polanco (club option), OF Max Kepler (club option)

New York Mets: RP Adam Ottavino

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ATLANTA, GEORGIA - AUGUST 21: Adam Ottavino #0 of the New York Mets pitches during the eighth inning against the Atlanta Braves at Truist Park on August 21, 2023 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Alex Slitz/Getty Images)
ATLANTA, GEORGIA - AUGUST 21: Adam Ottavino #0 of the New York Mets pitches during the eighth inning against the Atlanta Braves at Truist Park on August 21, 2023 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Alex Slitz/Getty Images)

Prediction: Re-sign

Outside of Carlos Carrasco and his 6.80 ERA, the Mets were able to offload all of their notable upcoming free agents, though they do have some option decisions that need to be sorted out this winter. The most notable of that group is a $6.75 million player option for setup man Adam Ottavino.

The 37-year-old has a 2.97 ERA and 1.15 WHIP with 10 saves and 12 holds in 61 appearances, and he has made at least 60 appearances every year since 2017 outside of the shortened 2020 campaign.

He should have no problem exceeding that $6.75 million figure on the open market, so declining his option is an easy decision, but the Mets should make a serious push to re-sign him if they are eyeing contention in 2024.

Other Notable Free Agents: SP Carlos Carrasco, RP John Curtiss, RP Brooks Raley (club option), C Omar Narváez (player option)

New York Yankees: SP Luis Severino

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NEW YORK, NEW YORK - SEPTEMBER 8: Luis Severino #40 of the New York Yankees delivers a pitch against the Milwaukee Brewers during the first inning of a game at Yankee Stadium on September 8, 2023 in New York City. (Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images)
NEW YORK, NEW YORK - SEPTEMBER 8: Luis Severino #40 of the New York Yankees delivers a pitch against the Milwaukee Brewers during the first inning of a game at Yankee Stadium on September 8, 2023 in New York City. (Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images)

Prediction: Move on

Luis Severino is going to be one of the more intriguing buy-low candidates on this winter's pitching market.

A left oblique strain brought his 2023 campaign to a premature end, and it was a forgettable season for the two-time All-Star as he finished with a 6.65 ERA and 1.65 WHIP in 89.1 innings while serving up a .301 opponents' batting average.

That said, he's just a year removed from logging a 3.18 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and 112 strikeouts in 102 innings, and at his peak he was a legitimate frontline starter. The 29-year-old should have teams lining up to give him a one-year, prove-it deal, but the Yankees need more stability from their starting staff.

Other Notable Free Agents: IF/OF Isiah Kiner-Falefa, SP Frankie Montas, RP Wandy Peralta, RP Keynan Middleton

Oakland Athletics: 2B/OF Tony Kemp

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HOUSTON, TEXAS - SEPTEMBER 12: Tony Kemp #5 of the Oakland Athletics grounds out during the seventh inning against the Houston Astros at Minute Maid Park on September 12, 2023 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Carmen Mandato/Getty Images)
HOUSTON, TEXAS - SEPTEMBER 12: Tony Kemp #5 of the Oakland Athletics grounds out during the seventh inning against the Houston Astros at Minute Maid Park on September 12, 2023 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Carmen Mandato/Getty Images)

Prediction: Move on

During the 2021 season, Tony Kemp put together a career year with a .382 on-base percentage and 3.4 WAR in 131 games, but he has failed to match that level of production in the years since or he likely already would be playing elsewhere.

The 31-year-old is hitting .211/.304/.311 with 21 extra-base hits and 14 steals in 117 games this season, while again splitting his time defensively between second base and left field.

There could be an MLB deal out there for him from a team that thinks his on-base ability and versatility is worth a roster spot, but it's more likely that he will have to play his way onto a team by way of a minor league deal. Expect the A's to turn the page.

Other Notable Free Agents: RP Trevor May

Philadelphia Phillies: SP Aaron Nola

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PHILADELPHIA, PENNSYLVANIA - SEPTEMBER 09: Aaron Nola #27 of the Philadelphia Phillies pitches during the first inning against the Miami Marlins at Citizens Bank Park on September 09, 2023 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images)
PHILADELPHIA, PENNSYLVANIA - SEPTEMBER 09: Aaron Nola #27 of the Philadelphia Phillies pitches during the first inning against the Miami Marlins at Citizens Bank Park on September 09, 2023 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images)

Prediction: Move on

The Phillies made an extension offer to Aaron Nola during the offseason that was north of $100 million, according to Jon Heyman of the New York Post, but the two sides never got close on a long-term deal and they could be headed for a split in free agency.

With Trea Turner, Bryce Harper, J.T. Realmuto, Nick Castellanos, Kyle Schwarber and Taijuan Walker already on the books with long-term deals, and a decision to be made on Zack Wheeler following the 2024 season, it could be tough to fit another nine-figure deal on the books.

Instead, the Phillies could make a push to re-sign deadline pickup Michael Lorenzen to fill out the rotation alongside Wheeler, Walker and Ranger Suárez while they wait on the continued development of top prospects Andrew Painter and Mick Abel.

Other Notable Free Agents: 1B Rhys Hoskins, SP Michael Lorenzen, RP Craig Kimbrel

Pittsburgh Pirates: OF/DH Andrew McCutchen

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MINNEAPOLIS, MINNESOTA - AUGUST 20: Andrew McCutchen #22 of the Pittsburgh Pirates takes an at-bat against the Minnesota Twins in the first inning at Target Field on August 20, 2023 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. The Twins defeated the Pirates 2-0. (Photo by David Berding/Getty Images)
MINNEAPOLIS, MINNESOTA - AUGUST 20: Andrew McCutchen #22 of the Pittsburgh Pirates takes an at-bat against the Minnesota Twins in the first inning at Target Field on August 20, 2023 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. The Twins defeated the Pirates 2-0. (Photo by David Berding/Getty Images)

Prediction: Re-sign

A partial Achilles tear brought Andrew McCutchen's season to an end earlier this month, and now the question is what's next for one of baseball's most accomplished active players after he signed a one-year, $5 million deal with the Pirates last offseason.

"We have incredible respect for him, on the field, off the field, what he's meant," Pirates general manager Ben Cherington told reporters. "We believe that the injury he's recovering from right now should not get in the way of him being a good baseball player next year and being someone who can help us, and we've agreed that we'll pick that conversation up when the season is over."

The 36-year-old hit .256/.378/.397 for a 112 OPS+ with 19 doubles, 12 home runs, 43 RBI and 55 runs scored in 112 games, and the value he brings as a veteran leader in a young clubhouse can't be understated.

A similar contract should be an easy decision for the Pirates, provided he is trending toward a clean bill of health.

Other Notable Free Agents: SP Vince Velasquez

San Diego Padres: SP Blake Snell

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HOUSTON, TEXAS - SEPTEMBER 08: Blake Snell #4 of the San Diego Padres delivers during the fourth inning against the Houston Astros at Minute Maid Park on September 08, 2023 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Carmen Mandato/Getty Images)
HOUSTON, TEXAS - SEPTEMBER 08: Blake Snell #4 of the San Diego Padres delivers during the fourth inning against the Houston Astros at Minute Maid Park on September 08, 2023 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Carmen Mandato/Getty Images)

Prediction: Move on

The Padres have two of baseball's best upcoming free agents in starter Blake Snell and closer Josh Hader, and there's a good chance both guys will be pitching elsewhere in 2024.

With Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts, Fernando Tatis Jr., Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove and Jake Cronenworth collectively owed a ton of money in the coming years, it's hard to see how another $100 million-plus salary fits on the books without painting the organization into a corner when it comes to addressing other needs.

My guess is both pitchers will walk, the rotation will be addressed by looking for more moves like last offseason's Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha signings, and the closer's role will go to Scott Barlow in 2024.

Other Notable Free Agents: RP Josh Hader, RP Luis García, C Gary Sánchez, SP Rich Hill, RP Drew Pomeranz, 1B Ji-Man Choi, 1B/OF Garrett Cooper, SP Michael Wacha (player option), SP Seth Lugo (player option), RP Nick Martinez (player option), DH Matt Carpenter (player option)

San Francisco Giants: OF/DH Joc Pederson

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SAN DIEGO, CALIFORNIA - SEPTEMBER 01: Joc Pederson #23 of the San Francisco Giants at bat during a game against the San Diego Padres at PETCO Park on September 01, 2023 in San Diego, California. (Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images)
SAN DIEGO, CALIFORNIA - SEPTEMBER 01: Joc Pederson #23 of the San Francisco Giants at bat during a game against the San Diego Padres at PETCO Park on September 01, 2023 in San Diego, California. (Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images)

Prediction: Move on

It's a lock that Alex Cobb will have his extremely team-friendly $10 million club option exercised, so let's instead turn our attention to slugger Joc Pederson.

The 31-year-old accepted a $19.7 million qualifying offer last winter on the heels of an All-Star performance in 2022 where he posted a 145 OPS+ with 23 home runs and 70 RBI in 433 plate appearances.

That has dipped to a 116 OPS+ with 13 home runs and 48 RBI in 106 games this season, and using that money to upgrade the starting rotation or to find a more consistent middle-of-the-order bat is the right move for the Giants.

Other Notable Free Agents: SP Alex Wood, SS Brandon Crawford, RP Scott Alexander, RP Jakob Junis, RP John Brebbia

Seattle Mariners: OF Teoscar Hernández

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CINCINNATI, OHIO - SEPTEMBER 05: Teoscar Hernández #35 of the Seattle Mariners reacts after hitting a home run in the first inning against the Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park on September 05, 2023 in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images)
CINCINNATI, OHIO - SEPTEMBER 05: Teoscar Hernández #35 of the Seattle Mariners reacts after hitting a home run in the first inning against the Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park on September 05, 2023 in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images)

Prediction: Re-sign

After a slow start to the season, Teoscar Hernández has picked up during the second half of the season, hitting .293/.321/.484 with 10 home runs and 38 RBI in 56 games since the All-Star break.

The 30-year-old was acquired from the Toronto Blue Jays during the offseason in exchange for reliever Erik Swanson, and thanks to his strong production of late the two-time Silver Slugger winner now has a 112 OPS+ with 25 home runs and 88 RBI in what is shaping up to be another productive year at the plate.

In a market that will be thin on impact run producers, the Mariners should seriously consider bringing him back to help provide some consistency in the middle of the lineup.

Other Notable Free Agents: C Tom Murphy

St. Louis Cardinals: RP Drew VerHagen

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CINCINNATI, OHIO - SEPTEMBER 8:  Drew VerHagen #34 of the St. Louis Cardinals pitches during the game against the Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park on September 8, 2023 in Cincinnati, Ohio. St. Louis defeated Cincinnati 9-4. (Photo by Kirk Irwin/Getty Images)
CINCINNATI, OHIO - SEPTEMBER 8: Drew VerHagen #34 of the St. Louis Cardinals pitches during the game against the Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park on September 8, 2023 in Cincinnati, Ohio. St. Louis defeated Cincinnati 9-4. (Photo by Kirk Irwin/Getty Images)

Prediction: Re-sign

After trading away Jordan Montgomery, Jack Flaherty, Jordan Hicks and Paul DeJong at the deadline, the only remaining upcoming free agent on the St. Louis roster is right-hander Drew VerHagen.

Originally a middling reliever in the Detroit Tigers system, VerHagen found success in the Japanese League in 2020 (3.22 ERA, 115 K, 111.2 IP) and 2021 (3.80 ERA, 101 K, 97.0 IP) before returning stateside on a two-year, $5.5 million deal with the Cardinals.

The 32-year-old has a 4.09 ERA with 12 holds in 54 appearances this season, and he could be re-signed with an eye on stretching him out as a starter to fill a void in a starting rotation that will need to be rebuilt.

Other Notable Free Agents: None

Tampa Bay Rays: RP Robert Stephenson

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DETROIT, MI - AUGUST 05: Tampa Bay Rays RP Robert Stephenson (26) in action during game between Tampa Bay Rays and Detroit Tigers on August 5, 2023 at Comerica Park in Detroit, MI (Photo by Allan Dranberg/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
DETROIT, MI - AUGUST 05: Tampa Bay Rays RP Robert Stephenson (26) in action during game between Tampa Bay Rays and Detroit Tigers on August 5, 2023 at Comerica Park in Detroit, MI (Photo by Allan Dranberg/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Prediction: Move on

Right-hander Robert Stephenson made four consecutive appearances on the Baseball America Top 100 prospect list during his time in the Cincinnati Reds farm system, peaking at No. 19 prior to the 2014 season.

However, things never quite clicked in the big leagues and he entered the 2023 season with a 4.90 ERA and 1.41 WHIP in 312 career innings spanning 22 starts and 189 relief appearances.

The Pittsburgh Pirates signed him to a one-year, $1.75 million deal during the offseason and he posted a 5.17 ERA in 18 appearances before he was traded to the Tampa Bay Rays in early June.

Never make a trade with the Rays for a seemingly underperforming pitcher.

Since the trade, he has a 2.43 ERA, 0.69 WHIP and a 53-to-8 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 33.1 innings, and that could set him up for significant interest in free agency. Expect the Rays to let someone else pay him while they move on to the next low-cost reclamation project.

Other Notable Free Agents: RP Jake Diekman

Texas Rangers: C/DH Mitch Garver

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TORONTO, ON - SEPTEMBER 11: Texas Rangers Designated hitter Mitch Garver (18) bats during the MLB baseball regular season game between the Texas Rangers  and the Toronto Blue Jays on September 11, 2023, at Rogers Centre in Toronto, ON, Canada. (Photo by Julian Avram/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
TORONTO, ON - SEPTEMBER 11: Texas Rangers Designated hitter Mitch Garver (18) bats during the MLB baseball regular season game between the Texas Rangers and the Toronto Blue Jays on September 11, 2023, at Rogers Centre in Toronto, ON, Canada. (Photo by Julian Avram/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Prediction: Move on

Considering the money they will be paying Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer, Nathan Eovaldi and Jon Gray next season, expect Jordan Montgomery to just be a two-month rental, which leaves slugger Mitch Garver as the most intriguing free agent to discuss in Texas.

With Jonah Heim locked in behind the plate, the Rangers don't necessarily need him from a catching standpoint.

However, he has been extremely productive in the designated hitter role, batting .284/.387/.539 for a 149 OPS+ with 17 home runs and 45 RBI in 72 games. In a thin market for catching, someone else will likely be willing to pay him more to be their starting catcher than the Rangers will offer up to use him in the DH role.

Other Notable Free Agents: SP Jordan Montgomery, RP Will Smith, RP Aroldis Chapman, SP Martin Pérez, C Austin Hedges, OF Brad Miller, OF Robbie Grossman, OF Travis Jankowski, RP Chris Stratton, RP Jose Leclerc (club option)

Toronto Blue Jays: 3B Matt Chapman

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TORONTO, ON - AUGUST 26: Matt Chapman #26 of the Toronto Blue Jays throws the ball during the game between the Cleveland Guardians and the Toronto Blue Jays at Rogers Centre on Saturday, August 26, 2023 in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. (Photo by Thomas Skrlj/MLB Photos via Getty Images)
TORONTO, ON - AUGUST 26: Matt Chapman #26 of the Toronto Blue Jays throws the ball during the game between the Cleveland Guardians and the Toronto Blue Jays at Rogers Centre on Saturday, August 26, 2023 in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. (Photo by Thomas Skrlj/MLB Photos via Getty Images)

Prediction: Move on

It looked like Matt Chapman might be headed for an AL MVP run when he hit .384/.465/.687 with 20 extra-base hits and 21 RBI during the first month of the season.

His production ultimately leveled off, but he still has a 112 OPS+ with 36 doubles, 15 home runs, 50 RBI and 61 runs scored in a 4.0-WAR season, and he has been his usual standout self defensively (10 DRS, 4.7 UZR/150) at third base.

With top prospects Orelvis Martinez and Addison Barger waiting in the wings, and rookie Davis Schneider also making a strong case for playing time on the infield, the Blue Jays will likely let someone else pony up what could be a $100 million deal.

Other Notable Free Agents: SP Hyun Jin Ryu, RP Jordan Hicks, OF Kevin Kiermaier, DH Brandon Belt, 2B Whit Merrifield (mutual option), RP Chad Green (player option)

Washington Nationals: OF Victor Robles

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PHOENIX, ARIZONA - MAY 06: Victor Robles #16 of the Washington Nationals gets ready in the batters box against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field on May 06, 2023 in Phoenix, Arizona. (Photo by Norm Hall/Getty Images)
PHOENIX, ARIZONA - MAY 06: Victor Robles #16 of the Washington Nationals gets ready in the batters box against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field on May 06, 2023 in Phoenix, Arizona. (Photo by Norm Hall/Getty Images)

Prediction: Exercise option

There was a time not long ago when Victor Robles was viewed as the future face of the franchise for the Washington Nationals, and was far more highly thought of in prospect circles than fellow Nationals prospect Juan Soto.

He had a 4.4-WAR season as a rookie in 2019, but has tallied just 1.3 WAR in 327 games since then, and his $3.3 million club option for next year is far from a guarantee to be exercised in the midst of a rebuild.

The 26-year-old played just 36 games this season before being sidelined by spasms in his lumbar spine, but he hit .299 with a .385 on-base percentage and 111 OPS+ in 126 plate appearances before he was sidelined. That should be enough to roll the dice one last time on him finally taking a step forward, provided he is cleared by team doctors.

Other Notable Free Agents: RP Carl Edwards Jr.

Benches Clear in Detroit 😳

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