Canelo Álvarez vs. Jermell Charlo: B/R Staff Predictions

When Canelo Álvarez fights, boxing fans pay attention.

Arguably the biggest star in the sport, Álvarez once again steps into the ring Saturday as he takes on Jermell Charlo in a highly anticipated bout.

And while the defending undisputed super middleweight champion heads into the bout as a heavy favorite, Canelo is facing a very dangerous opponent in junior middleweight champion Jermell Charlo. Sporting an impressive 35-1-1 record with 19 knockouts in his career, Charlo is no tomato can and has the ability to make things interesting against Álvarez.

The B/R Combat Sports team was called together to provide predictions for this one and to break down each man's chances.

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Charlo Raises Eyebrows and Keeps Them There

AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez

Jermell Charlo, right, hits Brian Castano with a right during a super welterweight boxing title bout Saturday, May 14, 2022, in Carson, Calif. (AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez)

Boxing fans are in for a real treat as we witness a rare clash between the best in two different weight classes: Canelo Alvarez, the undisputed super middleweight champion, and Jermell Charlo, the undisputed junior middleweight world champion.

Canelo undoubtedly holds several advantages in this clash, primarily because he's taking on Charlo, who is moving up multiple weight classes. The latter must overcome many challenges, including adjusting his training regimen, maintaining the right weight balance and ensuring he doesn't sacrifice speed while bulking up. He must also make sure his power translates effectively to these higher weight divisions and be prepared to withstand Canelo's punches.

While Charlo may hold the edge in terms of athleticism, Canelo boasts superior punching power and endurance. Canelo's strategy likely involves relentless pressure on Charlo, putting Charlo's durability to the test.

However, what's intriguing is Charlo's demeanor in the leadup to this fight. His measured responses, composed demeanor and unwavering confidence in his abilities and team raise eyebrows. His newfound calm, humility and respect can be misconstrued as nerves. However, it reflects maturity and recognition of this incredible opportunity.

In a surprising twist, I'm picking Charlo to claim victory by unanimous decision. I believe he will demonstrate discipline in the ring, utilize his jab effectively and impress the judges with his ability to keep Canelo in check.

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Prediction: Charlo wins by unanimous decision

—Doug Brown

Canelo Has Too Much for Charlo

AP Photo/Refugio Ruiz

FILE - Saul "Canelo" Alvarez jumps rope during a training session at a gym in Guadalajara, Mexico, on April 17, 2023. “Canelo” Álvarez is one of the best boxers in the world and he will return home on Saturday to face British rival John Ryder at the Akron Stadium in the western Mexican city. He hasn't fought in Guadalajara since June 2011, when he defeated British fighter Ryan Rhodes.(AP Photo/Refugio Ruiz)

Let's get this said: Charlo is a worthy champion and a terrific boxer.

He's earned this opportunity, and this isn't going to be a coronation for Canelo like other fights have been. And there are experts who have forgotten more boxing in their sleep, like Teddy Atlas, who think Canelo is "slipping."

If this fight was at a more neutral weight—i.e., 154 pounds, the weight that Charlo is champion at—the 33-year-old American would have more than a puncher's chance to pull off the upset.

But it's not.

The fight is happening at a more Canelo-friendly weight of 168 pounds. Charlo hasn't fought in over a year after knocking out Brian Castano in May 2022.

That, my friends, is a recipe for an Alvarez win. It's asking a lot for a fighter to be as inactive as Charlo has been, move up in weight and face one of the best pound-for-pound fighters going.

Atlas might be right. Canelo might not be what he once was. But the deck is stacked in his favor for this fight.

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Prediction: Canelo by TKO, Rd. 10

—Lucky Ngamwajasat

For Canelo, Charlo Is the Wrong Guy at the Wrong Time

Al Bello/Getty Images

NEW YORK, NY - OCTOBER 14: Jermell Charlo celebrates his first round knockout against Erickson Lubin during their WBC Junior Middleweight Title bout at Barclays Center of Brooklyn on October 14, 2017 in New York City. (Photo by Al Bello/Getty Images)

Canelo Alvarez is everything people say he is.

He's been the most consistent face of pay-per-view boxing for a decade. He's a legit four-division champion in an era rife with pretenders. And he'll be admiring a Hall of Fame plaque in central New York at the moment he becomes eligible for enshrinement.

But he's also a few other things.

He's 33 years old. He's been a pro since he was a teenager. And he's looked something less than vintage in his last three fights across the last two years.

So the question to ask about all that is simple: How much will it matter?

Jermell Charlo is moving up two weight classes. By definition, that's usually an exercise in futility. And he's fighting a guy who's never lost at 168 pounds. So it seems unlikely at best.

But he's also a good fighter. An undisputed champion in his own right. And he's both taller and longer than Alvarez when it comes to tales of tape. So, if the fact that he won't have to boil down to 154 pounds is an asset, maybe this isn't so much a mismatch after all.

Plenty of people who know what they're looking at suggest this will be a lot closer than people think and that Charlo has a real chance to win. For this time at least, I'm riding with that contrarian herd. Of course, if Alvarez is celebrating after an early KO, this conversation never happened.

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Prediction: Charlo by split decision

— Lyle Fitzsimmons