Ranking MLB's Top 5 AL and NL Cy Young Candidates with 1 Month to Go
The AL and NL Cy Young races have been wide open all season, and here in early September both awards are still very much up for grabs.
New York Yankees ace Gerrit Cole has been the favorite in the AL race for several weeks now, but his lead over the rest of the field could potentially be erased before the regular season winds to a close.
The NL front-runner appears to be San Diego Padres left-hander Blake Snell, though a high walk rate could be held against him by some voters and open the door for someone else to take home the hardware.
So, who all belongs in the AL and NL Cy Young conversations?
In an effort to mirror the five-player ballots that will be submitted by Baseball Writers' Association of America voters, we ranked our top five AL and NL candidates with a little less than one month left in the 2023 regular season.
Note: Each player's current odds to win the award come courtesy of DraftKings.
AL Honorable Mentions
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These 10 players did not make the cut for a spot on our hypothetical AL Cy Young ballot, but they also belong in the conversation:
Félix Bautista, Baltimore Orioles
Tanner Bibee, Cleveland Guardians
Zach Eflin, Tampa Bay Rays
Kevin Gausman, Toronto Blue Jays
Logan Gilbert, Seattle Mariners
George Kirby, Seattle Mariners
Pablo López, Minnesota Twins
Shane McClanahan, Tampa Bay Rays
Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Angels
Eduardo Rodríguez, Detroit Tigers
No. 5 AL Cy Young Candidate: Framber Valdez, Houston Astros
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Current Odds: +3000
Stats: 27 GS, 3.30 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 47 BB, 168 K, 174.2 IP, .229 BAA, 3.7 WAR
Even with Justin Verlander back in a Houston Astros uniform, the torch has been passed to Framber Valdez as the ace of the staff.
The workhorse lefty finished fifth in AL Cy Young voting last year when he tossed an AL-leading 201.1 innings, and he is on his way to another 30-start season with terrific numbers across the board.
His 18 quality starts trail only Gerrit Cole (21) among AL starters, and while he has not quite matched last year's sub-3.00 ERA, he has quietly trimmed his walk rate from 8.1 to 6.2 percent and has a career-low WHIP as a result.
No. 4 AL Cy Young Candidate: Kyle Bradish, Baltimore Orioles
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Current Odds: N/A
Stats: 25 GS, 3.03 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 39 BB, 136 K, 139.2 IP, .224 BAA, 3.6 WAR
The glaring hole on an exciting young Baltimore Orioles roster when the season began was the lack of a true ace-caliber starter, and Kyle Bradish has stepped into that role as the 2023 season has unfolded.
Acquired from the Los Angeles Angeles in the Dylan Bundy trade prior to the 2020 season, Bradish saw his first MLB action last season and posted a 4.90 ERA and 1.40 WHIP in 117.2 innings.
The 26-year-old is relying less on his four-seam fastball and more on his slider and sinker this season, and the result has been improved numbers across the board. He has allowed more than three earned runs just once in his last 17 starts, logging a 2.55 ERA in 102.1 innings during that impressive stretch.
No. 3 AL Cy Young Candidate: Sonny Gray, Minnesota Twins
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Current Odds: +1700
Stats: 28 GS, 2.98 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 53 BB, 160 K, 163.0 IP, .227 BAA, 4.6 WAR
An All-Star in 2015 with the Oakland Athletics and 2019 with the Cincinnati Reds, Sonny Gray is having arguably the best season of his 11-year career here in 2023.
The 33-year-old had a pair of rocky starts on either side of the All-Star break, allowing a combined 11 earned runs in 11.2 innings during those outings. Outside of that brief bump in the road, he has a 2.56 ERA in 151.1 innings over his other 26 starts.
Playing in the final season of a five-year, $50.7 million deal, he has likely positioned himself for another multiyear deal on the open market this winter.
No. 2 AL Cy Young Candidate: Luis Castillo, Seattle Mariners
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Current Odds: +400
Stats: 28 GS, 3.19 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 40 BB, 183 K, 169.1 IP, .214 BAA, 3.1 WAR
In his first full season with the Seattle Mariners, Luis Castillo has been the clear ace of the staff in a terrific young rotation that also features rising stars George Kirby and Logan Gilbert.
The five-year, $108 million extension he signed last September already looks like an absolute steal, and his .214 opponents' batting average and AL-best 7.4 hits per nine innings speaks to just how dominant his stuff has been all year.
The 30-year-old has evolved from leaning heavily on his changeup to attacking hitters more with his four-seam fastball and plus slider, while also featuring a sinker, making him an extremely uncomfortable at-bat for opposing hitters.
No. 1 AL Cy Young Candidate: Gerrit Cole, New York Yankees
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Current Odds: -300
Stats: 29 GS, 2.90 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 45 BB, 195 K, 180.0 IP, .217 BAA, 5.6 WAR
The AL Cy Young is Gerrit Cole's to lose over the final month, as he has been in the driver's seat for most of the second half of the 2023 season.
A runner-up in the voting twice in his career, Cole leads the majors with 21 quality starts, and he is also tops in the AL in ERA (2.90), ERA+ (149) and innings pitched (180) while knocking on the door for the sixth 200-strikeout season of his career.
He had his worst start of the year against the Boston Red Sox on Aug. 19, but in three appearances since that rocky outing he has gone 3-0 with a 1.83 ERA, 0.86 WHIP and a 25-to-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 19.2 innings.
NL Honorable Mentions
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These 10 players did not make the cut for a spot on our hypothetical NL Cy Young ballot, but they also belong in the conversation:
Corbin Burnes, Milwaukee Brewers
Alexis Díaz, Cincinnati Reds
Zac Gallen, Arizona Diamondbacks
Mitch Keller, Pittsburgh Pirates
Merrill Kelly, Arizona Diamondbacks
Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers
Jesús Luzardo, Miami Marlins
Charlie Morton, Atlanta Braves
Kodai Senga, New York Mets
Devin Williams, Milwaukee Brewers
No. 5 NL Cy Young Candidate: Spencer Strider, Atlanta Braves
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Current Odds: +1100
Stats: 28 GS, 3.83 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 52 BB, 250 K, 162.0 IP, .208 BAA, 3.1 WAR
Spencer Strider is the most overpowering pitcher in baseball, but a handful of poor starts will likely keep him from having any real shot at winning the NL Cy Young this season.
The flame-thrower was lit up for six earned runs in 2.2 innings against the St. Louis Cardinals on Wednesday, and that marks the third time since the All-Star break he has allowed at least five earned runs in a start. His ERA climbed from 3.56 to 3.83 following his most recent outing.
That said, he still leads the majors with 250 strikeouts and has limited opposing hitters to a .208 batting average, which speaks to just how dominant he can be when everything is clicking. That should be enough to land him on plenty of ballots, even if it's not in the No. 1 spot.
No. 4 NL Cy Young Candidate: Logan Webb, San Francisco Giants
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Current Odds: +7500
Stats: 29 GS, 3.51 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 28 BB, 173 K, 187.0 IP, 4.2 WAR
In a year when the San Francisco Giants have dealt with the departure of Carlos Rodón in free agency and a variety of injuries to their starting rotation, Logan Webb has been the definition of reliable.
The 26-year-old is the MLB leader in innings pitched (187.0) and the NL leader in quality starts (20), which might be the two easiest judges of durability and consistency, and there is an easy case to be made that he is the MVP of a contending Giants team.
He received Cy Young votes for the first time last year when he finished 11th in the NL balloting, and while his ERA has actually climbed from 2.90 last year to 3.51 this season, he should be a lock to finish inside the top 10 for the first time.
No. 3 NL Cy Young Candidate: Zack Wheeler, Philadelphia Phillies
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Current Odds: +7500
Stats: 28 GS, 3.49 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 32 BB, 192 K, 170.0 IP, .225 BAA, 4.2 WAR
With 10 quality starts in his last 11 outings, Zack Wheeler is making a late push in the NL Cy Young race, posting a 2.76 ERA, 0.85 WHIP and 80 strikeouts in 71.2 innings while holding opposing hitters to a .194 average during that stretch.
The 33-year-old is the NL leader in WHIP (1.05), which is a stat that has often garnered significant attention from the voters, and while others like Zac Gallen (ARI), Logan Webb (SF) and Spencer Strider (ATL) have scuffled a bit since the All-Star break, he has been at his best over the past month.
With a 3.01 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 655 strikeouts in 607.1 innings to go along with 19.5 WAR over his first four seasons with the Philadelphia Phillies, his five-year, $118 million contract is shaping up to be one of the best nine-figure investments ever made in a pitcher.
No. 2 NL Cy Young Candidate: Justin Steele, Chicago Cubs
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Current Odds: +175
Stats: 26 GS, 2.55 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 33 BB, 153 K, 152.0 IP, .242 BAA, 4.0 WAR
In his first season as a regular member of the Chicago Cubs rotation last year, Justin Steele quietly posted a 3.18 ERA with 126 strikeouts in 119 innings, but even the most optimistic of projections did not have him taking the leap forward he has in 2023.
Lowering his walk rate from 9.8 to 5.3 percent has helped him slash his WHIP from 1.35 to 1.14, and the result has been a frontline-level season across the board, including a 2.98 FIP that suggests there is nothing fluky about his breakout performance.
The 28-year-old tossed eight shutout innings of two-hit, 12-strikeout ball against the San Francisco Giants on Monday in a game with significant NL wild-card implications, and he appears to be in the best position of any NL starter to unseat the top pitcher on this list.
No. 1 NL Cy Young Candidate: Blake Snell, San Diego Padres
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Current Odds: -215
Stats: 28 GS, 2.50 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 89 BB, 201 K, 155.0 IP, .191 BAA, 4.6 WAR
At first glance, it might seem like Blake Snell should run away with the NL Cy Young balloting, especially considering his recent performance.
Since the All-Star break, he has not allowed more than two earned runs in any of his 10 starts, going 6-2 with a 1.89 ERA and 69 strikeouts in 57 innings to lower his ERA to an MLB-best 2.50 on the year.
However, he is also the NL leader in walks (89) and wild pitches (12), and his 1.25 WHIP ranks 34th among the 54 quality NL starters. His 3.69 FIP and MLB-leading 86.3 percent rate of stranding runners also suggest there has been plenty of good fortune in his strong surface-level numbers.
For context, the last time a pitcher won Cy Young with a 1.20 WHIP or higher was Roger Clemens all the way back in 2001, but if anyone is going to break that trend it's Snell this season.
