Projecting Joel Embiid, 76ers Stars' Ceilings and Floors for 2023-24 NBA Season
The Philadelphia 76ers are built to go as far as Joel Embiid can take them during the 2023-24 NBA season.
He'll have support, sure, though it's not entirely clear from where. James Harden's unresolved trade request still hangs above this franchise's head, after all, and no one can say for certain whether this campaign will be the one in which Tyrese Maxey fully ascends to stardom.
To help gauge Philly's best- and worst-case scenarios for the upcoming season, let's set both the ceilings and floors for the 76ers' biggest stars.
Joel Embiid
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Ceiling
A healthy Embiid is among the handful of hoopers who factor into the best-player-on-the-planet discussion. He bagged the past two scoring titles, has three All-Defensive honors on his resume and just locked up the MVP award after back-to-back silver medal finishes.
History says the Sixers won't get 75 games out of him—he's yet to play 70—but if he at least lands in the high 60s, he could make another run at an MVP. He has struggled at times to maintain his elite production in the playoffs, though, so that's the hope for his next step. There is absolutely a universe in which he snags MVP honors in both the regular season and the NBA Finals next season.
Floor
It has (fortunately) been a minute since the big fella had a season wrecked by the injury bug, yet the hoops world still holds its collective breath every time he takes a spill. You'd hate to see it, but if his old injury issues resurface, he may have a tough time pushing himself to 50 games.
He'll still produce when he plays, but he could lose a bit of volume or efficiency—or both. Statistically, that could mean averaging closer to 25 points than 35 while shooting below 50 percent from the field and 35 percent from distance. And if his play stalls in the postseason as it has the past few seasons, he and the Sixers could get sent packing in the first round.
James Harden
2 of 3
Ceiling
This feels a little strange, since, if Harden has his way, he won't spend this season with the Sixers. But he's in Philly now, and all is quiet on the trade front, so we'll make like that dog from the meme and pretend this is fine.
Harden's days of MVP consideration are behind him—he hasn't even earned an All-NBA selection since 2019-20—but he could still be the second-best player on a contender. Securing a second consecutive assists title is on the table, and maybe he can nudge his individual numbers closer to 25 points on something like 45/40/90 shooting.
Floor
At some point in the not-so-distant future, Harden will average fewer than 20 points per game. He'll struggle to shoot 40 percent from the field, too. In the past two seasons, he has only averaged 21.5 points, and in 2021-22, he had some of the worst shooting rates of his career from the field (41.0, second-worst) and from three (33.0, worst).
If he's stuck in Philly and unhappy about it, maybe his absences go up and his efficiency declines. Remember how rough things got at the end of his Houston tenure? Can anyone completely rule out a sequel? We think not.
Tyrese Maxey
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Ceiling
Player development isn't always a linear process, but look back on Maxey's career, and you'll see his trajectory has always been an arrow pointing straight up. That means we maybe haven't seen anything close to his best, which feels both rationale (he's only 22) and kind of terrifying, given how far he has already come.
A full-fledged breakout would see Maxey upping his scoring output while maintaining (or improving) his efficiency. Averaging 25 points on 50/40/90 shooting isn't totally out of the question. Philly needs to see more growth from him as a defender and distributor, and while it would be great to see both manifest this season, realistic optimism says he could check one box but probably not both.
Floor
At this stage of his career, Maxey seems unlikely to backtrack, but maybe he runs into more injury trouble after losing nearly two months of last season to a foot fracture. Nothing in his profile suggests he's more vulnerable to injuries than anyone else, but if you're talking about a disaster scenario for his fourth NBA season, it would almost certainly include a lengthy stint on the sideline.
On the court, his shooting could slide a bit (remember, he was a 30.1 percent three-point shooter on low volume as a rookie), and maybe his turnovers increase, especially if he's handling more offense if/when Harden is moved. It's also possible Maxey plays poorly enough on the defensive end for new Sixers skipper Nick Nurse to at least consider moving Maxey out of the starting lineup and back into the spark-plug sixth man role he filled at times last season.
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